Support NeoGAF

[ivysaur12]

What? Texas in a best case scenario? More like a complete fantasy scenario. Not sure you can make a case with 2 insane extremes.

Conservatives don't seem to think so

Medved, who says he believes a “Trump candidacy would guarantee Republican losses in every swing state, as well as possible losses in Texas and Arizona,” added that just because he is questioning whether he could support Trump as the Republican nominee, it doesn’t mean he is considering supporting Clinton, who he was friends with when they both attended Yale Law School in the 1970s.

Trump being the nominee would just do to Arizona, Georgia, and Texas what Obama did to Virginia and North Carolina in 2008 -- jump start their demographic inevitability.

Also when I say worst case, I mean something like Trump calling Hillary a c-word on national television during a debate.

 

[teruterubozu]

Conservatives don't seem to think so

Michael Medved? Come on now.

 

[tiredheadcrab]

I loved it when Larry David called him a racist on SNL. It was great. He was honest and got paid for it. Best part of this whole primary.

If he wins the primay election then it will be interesting to see the ramifications of the Republican party. The Tea Party needs to get under control somehow.

 

[ivysaur12]

Michael Medved? Come on now.

Or, hey, when I explain why people feel this way:

Trump being the nominee would just do to Arizona, Georgia, and Texas what Obama did to Virginia and North Carolina in 2008 -- jump start their demographic inevitability.

Here is what demographic inevitability looks like:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...n-the-2020-elections-yes-you-read-that-right/

 

[teruterubozu]

Or, hey, when I explain why people feel this way:



Here is what demographic inevitability looks like:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...n-the-2020-elections-yes-you-read-that-right/

But that's way far out. I mean, I love your optimism and all but...

 

[SenjutsuSage]

What's bothering many Republicans in the establishment is that they fear Donald Trump is revealing in too blatant a way exactly what the Republican Party on the whole stands for and believes in. The truth is embarrassing for them.

They much prefer to use clever, focus group and poll tested language to fool voters into believing they are something they are not. Trump is ruining that plan by simply saying way too much in way too honest of a fashion. Even in being blatantly dishonest, Trump has actually been quite honest about what the Republican Party of today is like.

The problem or fear isn't that Donald Trump doesn't represent Republican values, it's that he may just represent their values way too honestly and openly, and in a such a way that even the most uninformed of voters can fully understand what he (and the party he represents) is all about. They want to disguise much of what they truly believe because it's the only way they will ever secure the votes they need to take control. Trump is being too loud and too bold for their taste, and the thought people may now be paying attention is scaring the Republican Party establishment to death.

I want Trump to win (the nomination) just so he can, on the largest possible stage, show the entire country what the Republican Party stands for.

 

[Silent Chief]

Arnold won, so it's not crazy to think Trump has a chance.

Arnold actually makes good speeches. It's just too bad he's got nothing to say.

The problem with the Republicans is that Bush had a chance to demonstrate that everything they stand for does not work. Any of those candidates would make 2008 look like a good year.

 

[GavinGT]

I'm holding out for the Whig party to make a comeback.

 

[Crossing Eden]

Many leading Republican officials, strategists and donors now say they fear that Mr. Trump’s nomination would lead to an electoral wipeout, a sweeping defeat that could undo some of the gains Republicans have made in recent congressional, state and local elections.

Fucking good.

 

[smurfx]

haha once they take down trump and even worse guy will take his spot (cruz). i'm sure trump will throw his support behind him just to fuck with the other politicians. wonder at what point will other politicians try and capitalize on trump's momentum and endorse him. if trump stays on long enough it may prevent many politicians from putting their support behind a certain candidate out of ear of alienating the current republican mob behind trump. that might affect fund raising which would be great.

 

[RustyNails]

Why are they angry of Trump? Why do they fear him? Is it because he has aired the dirty laundry of GOP electorate? That being a racist, anti-government, xenophobic, homophobic, Islamophobic, fearmongering fascist can possibly win you the nomination of their party? Or is it the slow, burning, soul consuming realization of the fact that your party IS made up of these people, and Trump is just who your party wants?

Chumps. The lot of them. No one but themselves to blame. Trump is simply using the reservoir of hate the republican party has filled up. Can you really blame him is the question.

 

[davepoobond]

I'm holding out for the Whig party to make a comeback.

nothing more American than Pig Owls

 

[ivysaur12]

But that's way far out. I mean, I love your optimism and all but...

They even go into it further in the article:

There's Georgia again -- less Republican than many of the solid red states, but not totally. And there's Texas. A reminder: This extrapolation doesn't include any demographic considerations. So if, say, Latinos register and vote Democratic in Texas more rapidly than they have in the past, that little dot on the right will shift upward more quickly.

http://www.businessinsider.com/making-texas-battleground-state-by-2016-2013-2

History aside, if neither party lifts a finger to change current trends, the demographic changes taking place in Texas will — by themselves — seal it as blue by around 2040. The Democrats, however, plan to lift more than a finger; and if they play their cards right, they could speed the process up by 25 years, putting Texas in play much sooner.

Now comes the harder part, at least as far as a 2016 timeline is concerned, because shifting public opinion is harder than registering voters or increasing turnouts. But the bottom line is this: If the Democrats accomplish their first two goals, and get Texan Hispanics in line with national Hispanic party affiliation, they could put Texas in play in 2016. And while swinging public opinion is difficult, it certainly isn’t impossible — particularly giving the Democrats’ demonstrated ability to micro-target potential voters with data-driven messaging.

In 2008, 35 percent of Texan Hispanics voted for the GOP. No exit polls were taken in Texas in 2012, but the national Hispanic GOP vote was only 27 percent — four points lower than the national Hispanic GOP vote in 2008. So, going off of limited data, and giving the GOP the benefit of the doubt, the Democrats would need to swing Texan Hispanic voters their way by between four and eight points.

And while Republicans like Mr. Norquist and Texas Gov. Rick Perry say that the Democrat’s goal is a pipe dream because of the Texas GOP’s differences from the national GOP, they would be well served by studying the case of former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, who, despite a roundly liberal record on abortion and other social issues, was painted as part of a national, socially conservative machine by 2012 Democrats. Then-candidate Elizabeth Warren didn’t focus attacks on Mr. Brown for his quotes regarding abortion, for example — she instead ran ads attacking former Missouri Rep. Todd Akin’s quotes on abortion.

In the next Texas election, Texas Republicans should not expect to be spared attack ads highlighting Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer’s harsher immigration policies.

By making races national when convenient, both parties have discovered a winning strategy — and one that can overwhelm a single state’s party apparatus.

Vlytics, a Republican data and analytics firm run by veterans of national and statewide campaigns, made no bones about the Democrat’s chances. “We’ve run a model on the Texas demographics; we know that the Democrats have too,” Vlytics partner Brian Stobie told The Daily Caller. “We know, and the Democrats know, that if they achieve these three goals, they can turn Texas purple, or even blue, in as little as four years. What is unclear is if the GOP knows this.”

Now, Battleground Texas is a shitty group that is mismanaged and did a terrible job in an admittedly bad year for Democrats nationally. But then:

“Our data shows that Democrats will see at least two-point gains over the next eight years through demographic change alone,” Mr. Bird added. “And that’s if we do absolutely nothing.”

Again, I don't expect Texas to go Blue in 2016 -- see my first map, which doesn't even put it as a close swing state. But it'll absolutely be contested in 2024 and 2028.

 

[titiklabingapat]

The greatest thing in that article was the Cruz swipe haha. Get rekt, you Cruz loser.

 

[psynergylover]

they can stop this

Spoiler

vote for Hillary

 

[Tarkus]

Rubio will be our saviour.

 

[King Tubby]

The real Republican base is sexists and racists? If you still think backwater hillbilly's and white supremacists represent the Republican party you're an imbecile.

Are you calling Trump an imbecile? Because that's exactly what he thinks, and so far the polls are proving him right.

 

[Raxus]

Trump is everything the Republicans have been pushing as a concept and leader for the last several years. Now they freak out when they get someone only he's not under their sway and doesn't give a damn what they think.

It must be like a dream turning into a nightmare for them.

If anything was going to blow up in their face I am glad it is this. All this government outsider, xenophobic bullshit that has been plaguing the party for years is finally blowing up in their faces in a spectacular manner.

 

[Bronx-Man]

TRUMP |OT| Triumph of the Will

 

[border]

Remember during the first debate when they made every candidate pledge that they would fully support whoever wins the nomination?

So what happens if/when Trump wins? Will all those candidates have to be endorsing Trump?

 

[Raptor2155]

It's funny. For years the GOP has been the party that caters to old rich white men. But now one of them has basically decided to cut out the middle men and run himself.

And what results is a party that is about to fracture. Amazing.

 

[Parmadillo Marshmallow]

I want to see Trump win the nom and then back out at the last minute to give Hil the uncontested win.

 

[Cerium]

I want to see Trump win the nom and then back out at the last minute to give Hil the uncontested win.

Or he could run and give her the uncontested win.

 

[Killer Queen]

.

Please tell me he really did this.

did you see how he was gonna build his wall?

Even better

 

[Citadelofmythoughts]

The real Republican base is sexists and racists? If you still think backwater hillbilly's and white supremacists represent the Republican party you're an imbecile.

Keep up the cool generalizations though, this thread doesn't have enough as it is.

#TRUMP 2016

Q.E.D.

 

[psynergylover]

did you see how he was gonna build his wall?

 

[Kahoona]

Trump seems like the first presidential candidate that the Baby Boomers can fully call their own. They're getting old enough that the Republicans above them either don't vote or are a small minority now.

 

[Madness]

I can't believe the Republicans are scared of this guy... I mean seriously.
He's just hot air, money, and a bad comb over. Nothing else.

He's everything they apparently aren't. People are also forgetting just how high and quick other candidates like Carson and Fiorina rose, what does that tell you about what the Republicans are doing and what their base thinks?

If anything, democratic strategists should be looking at how to utilize the anti-GOP establishment apathy to their benefit. Remember even though Hillary seems a lock, she still needs to sway a lot of independent and Republican voters, so you can expect a more push to the center/right from her if she locks up the nomination herself. Obama used 'change we can believe in' to sway a lot of Republicans and Independents.

 

[Slayer-33]

Trump is going to get the nomination, they don't have a choice lol

 

[kess]

Trump seems like the first presidential candidate that the Baby Boomers can fully call their own from what I can see. They're getting old enough that the Republicans above them either don't vote or are a small minority now.

Older baby boomers vote somewhat more liberal leaning than the younger boomers, for whatever reason (Nixon flaming out probably didn't help). Gen Xers who grew up under Reagan are consistently Republican leaning.

 

[Hexa]

Please tell me he really did this.

Yup. When he hosted SNL.
https://youtu.be/cjeORm4LMDk?t=92

 

[Kahoona]

Older baby boomers vote somewhat more liberal leaning than the younger boomers, for whatever reason. Gen Xers who grew up under Reagan are consistently Republican leaning.

Interesting chart. It looks like, for the past two elections, the older generations have been voting Republican, but you're right; the only generation that seems to consistently vote Republican are the Gen Xers.

 

[injurai]

Older baby boomers vote somewhat more liberal leaning than the younger boomers, for whatever reason (Nixon flaming out probably didn't help). Gen Xers who grew up under Reagan are consistently Republican leaning.

Hopefully the left shift continues over the next 20 years.

Things feel so uncertain right now, and I pretty much every presidential candidate would be a downgrade from Obama.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Interesting chart. It looks like, for the past two elections, the older generations have been voting Republican, but you're right; the only generation that seems to consistently vote Republican are the Gen Xers.

What you're seeing on that chart is not whether they are voting for Democrats or Republicans. Re-read the label, it's more subtle than that.

 

[HP_Wuvcraft]

I can't believe the Republicans are scared of this guy... I mean seriously.
He's just hot air, money, and a bad comb over. Nothing else.

Why shouldn't they be?

Trump being the nominee out of popularity would be a huge, huge problem.

 

[LUFTRAUSER]

Why shouldn't they be?

Trump being the nominee out of popularity would be a huge, huge problem.

Why? Because it's one thing to get on TV. It's another thing to win an election. That requires a lot of logistical support. Establishment support. I think he'll fail once the race really starts.

 

[Angelus Errare]

I don't understand why republicans don't like him. I mean dude is literally saying everything they say without the pretenses.

 

[eyeball_kid]

Gen Xers who grew up under Reagan are consistently Republican leaning.

Say what? Gen X brought in eight years of Clinton, sweeping Bush Sr. to the curb as a 1-termer.

Here's a question: is the GOP allowed to ban a candidate from the party? Do they have a failsafe in case Trump is about to clench the nomination?

 

[B-Dubs]

Why? Because it's one thing to get on TV. It's another thing to win an election. That requires a lot of logistical support. Establishment support. I think he'll fail once the race really starts.

Well, the thing is he is currently the only Republican with a decent ground game. Everyone else is a joke in comparison, he's got the ground game to win this.

 

[Gr1mLock]

Looks to me like the market is deciding.

 

[injurai]

I don't understand why republicans don't like him. I mean dude is literally saying everything they say without the pretenses.

Belligerent, not actually a politician, dubious in his claims (at least Republicans fund their own quasi-official research), dubious in his adherence to conservative Christian ideals (even though Trump is protestant), Trump wants to tax the rich, close loopholes that exist for the rich that he himself has exposed. He wants to prevent America from being used a relativist consumer economy that exists to sell and siphon off working Americans earnings. He wants to bring back outsourced jobs, and institute high tariffs to prevent China from continuing with it's runway position in manufacturing.

It's really not that big of a surprise.

 

[Hexa]

Say what? Gen X brought in eight years of Clinton, sweeping Bush Sr. to the curb as a 1-termer.

Here's a question: is the GOP allowed to ban a candidate from the party? Do they have a failsafe in case Trump is about to clench the nomination?

They could, but that would result in Trump running Third Party, which would also guarantee they lose the election. Though after weighing the pros and cons they might acknowledge that its worth it in the long term and do it anyway.

 

[Angelus Errare]

Belligerent, not actually a politician, dubious in his claims (at least Republicans fund their own quasi-official research), dubious in his adherence to conservative Christian ideals (even though Trump is protestant), Trump wants to tax the rich, close loopholes that exist for the rich that he himself has exposed. He wants to prevent America from being used a relativist consumer economy that exists to sell and siphon off working Americans earnings. He wants to bring back outsourced jobs, and institute high tariffs to prevent China from continuing with it's runway position in manufacturing.

It's really not that big of a surprise.

I was mostly joking. I was insinuating that republicans don't really care about politics as much as they care about making sure the "others" lives are ruined.

I suck

 

[Cow Mengde]

The entire Republican party are filled with nothing but clowns. If it's not this clown, it'll just be another clown. It's sad.

 

[Zaptruder]

I don't understand why republicans don't like him. I mean dude is literally saying everything they say without the pretenses.

That's *why* they don't like him.

 

[Maengun1]

If Texas went for Hillary I would have to take my buddy to the hospital.

Yahhh Texas isn't turn Dem next year under any scenario. You could have the most popular, perfect Dem candidate in the history of Earth (I'm talking a fictional perfect character here) vs. a Republican candidate who literally revealed themself to be the antichrist in disguise in October, and the GOP is still squeaking a Texas win in 2016.

Maybe in 8-12 years.

I don't understand why republicans don't like him. I mean dude is literally saying everything they say without the pretenses.

This is another thing I always say re: Trump, but I think of it more from the liberal's point of view. People are always freaking out about all the horrible shit Trump is *saying*, as if that makes hims sooo much worse than the other R candidates. They all *think* the things Trump says. They will all try to pass the same horrible policies...they just don't all flaunt it as much as he does. They're ALL that bad. Whoever gets the nom will be some level of terrible. It doesn't make that much of a difference to me?

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Neofascist.

whoa

 

[Makai]

Yahhh Texas isn't turn Dem next year under any scenario. You could have the most popular, perfect Dem candidate in the history of Earth (I'm talking a fictional perfect character here) vs. a Republican candidate who literally revealed themself to be the antichrist in disguise in October, and the GOP is still squeaking a Texas win in 2016.

Maybe in 8-12 years.

The right candidate can produce a huge shift. See Lousiana governor race.

 

[HP_Wuvcraft]

I don't understand why republicans don't like him. I mean dude is literally saying everything they say without the pretenses.

Because only a vocal minority of Republicans actually are Tea Party shitbrains.

This is a Sarah Palin situation x500.

 

[Veritigo_X]

Well, the thing is he is currently the only Republican with a decent ground game. Everyone else is a joke in comparison, he's got the ground game to win this.

And he's hired some of the best people too. In Iowa he's got Chuck Laudner who was behind Santorum's Iowa campaign in 2012.