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RUMOR: NX more powerful than PS4, Splatoon/Mario Maker ports in development

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RAWi

Member
The NX is a mistake, it's nothing but trash.

1865342.jpg


NX boxart leaked, new name confirmed. Nintendo Polystation is the future with over 1,000 games to play!!
 

ZOONAMI

Junior Member
Emily's sources at Nintendo could have told her the power speculation is wrong, because the gpu is actually more than 3x as powerful as ps4.

Lol. If there actually is fiji/Polaris in there it's possible.

What do we think the BOM on a fury nano is?
 

EloquentM

aka Mannny
Emily Rodgers said that her sources close to Nintendo said that 10k's sources had the GPU wrong, the gimmick wrong (gamepad) and that the "power" was not correct. But that the NX still had "good" specs.

After that, 10k quoted his source (on the GPU) literally (which he failed to mention from the start) and that said that the GPU would be a mix of polaris and fiji. So possibly this is where Emily's sources told her the info (of polaris) was wrong.
interesting. So why is the current conversation About the cartridge patent? Lolol
 
Using a different format from the competitors that's also more expensive would be an extremely stupid thing to do.

Unless that different format allows the addressable market for many (not all) games to be larger since it can include users on both the console and handheld.
 

brainpann

Member
Using a different format from the competitors that's also more expensive would be an extremely stupid thing to do.


There a quite a few posts that explain why it wont nessecarily be more expensive.


Although Id love to see carts, I think theyd be a hard sell for Nintendo.
 

bomblord1

Banned
If we are living in that fantasy world then the Wii U had a ton of Western Support cause you know it got a bunch of Launch Window ports of Mass Effect, Batman, NFS:MW ect...

*rolls eyes*

Over half the games I posted were well out of launch. On top of the fact I didn't even begin to scratch the surface of all the games they have released and left out several devs.
 

ZOONAMI

Junior Member
Emily Rodgers said that her sources close to Nintendo said that 10k's sources had the GPU wrong, the gimmick wrong (gamepad) and that the "power" was not correct. But that the NX still had "good" specs.

After that, 10k quoted his source (on the GPU) literally (which he failed to mention from the start) and that said that the GPU would be a mix of polaris and fiji. So possibly this is where Emily's sources told her the info (of polaris) was wrong.

Emily's sources at Nintendo could have told her the power speculation is wrong, because the gpu is actually more than 3x as powerful as ps4.

Lol. If there actually is fiji/Polaris in there it's possible.

What do we think the BOM on a fury nano is?

Fury nano variation would line up with WSJ cutting edge chips rumor... hmm...

I hope 10k source is correct and we are looking at a modified fury nano on a 14nm process with some Polaris features, with 8gb of gddr5 instead of 4gb hbm.

And somehow AMD got BOM down to $100ish or less for Nintendo for gpu. Fury nano idle power consumption is extremely impressive at 10-12 watts. Downclock to keep gpu power draw at 100w max load. Downclocked FX 6300 for cpu for sub 50w power consumption on cpu side. 4gb of separate system ddr3 ram.

It should be possible to keep total power consumption under 150watts with some slight tweaking to basically off the shelf parts.

Downclocked FX 6300 would line up with LCGEEKs cpu specs?
 

MLH

Member
You could potentially take advantage of the extra space to allow users to have multiple cards plugged in at a time.

I would prefer if they used the extra space for a 2.5" HDD/SSD slot.
I've got a USB drive hooked up to my WiiU and it's held with elastic bands to the console, not very pretty but keeps things together. Would be nice if it's hidden on the NX.
 

Nightbird

Member
They haven't put out a madden since 2011. That Sims game is from then too.

The only real 3d party games we get on a regular basis is the Lego stuff not counting shovelware. Let's be real here.

Yeah, and it's not because they have to use carts, Wich was the original point.
 

Kathian

Banned
Advantages to dropping BR in favor of cards:

No bulky disc drive
> cheaper console (cost of drive)
> smaller console
>> cheaper console due to cheaper stocking and shipping
> more reliable console
>> no moving parts
>> better ventilation due to less cramped while still smaller
> more quiet console
>> no moving parts
>> more passive cooling
> more energy efficient console
>> cheaper console

Smaller packaging
> cheaper stocking
> cheaper shipping
> cheaper packaging

Cards
> faster loadtimes
> possibillity to go shared library between handheld and home console
> faster swappable



Anything else?

Cards to me are a great solution for retailers and just how game revenues are moved around and charged back.

I wonder if it fits that NFC patent.
 
interesting. So why is the current conversation About the cartridge patent? Lolol

That may have been my fault-

We were doing the regular power speculation song and dance, and I was curious to see how much money can be saved on the console BOM by removing a disc drive and possibly removing/downsizing a hard drive, and speculating that if they go that route they can use those savings to cover the price of a relatively costly GPU.

I'm willing to believe that 10k's source isn't completely bullshitting, but that we don't have the full picture of what this "polaris/fiji" chip is or what it can handle. And I'm betting that Emily's tweet had more to do with dozens of pages in this thread assuming that 10k's source was explicitly saying "Polaris 14nm!!", so Emily wanted to clarify that a Polaris 14nm chip is unlikely.

If there is a relatively high end GPU in the console, then they can potentially keep the MSRP low by removing the disc drive/HDD, which is how we are where we are now!

Also I don't believe there is a cartridge patent, though feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.
 

Kathian

Banned
Wait are people talking about actual physical media? No they'd just download based on the game input. Which is where discs are anyway.
 

AdanVC

Member
At this point, I'm not even gonna trust Nintendo when they talk about NX. I feel like NX is just something that doesn't exist and Nintendo is just trolling us and they will continue releasing spin-offs and low budget games on Wii U till 2018.
 

MuchoMalo

Banned
This, plus potential for installing/downloading patches/DLC onto the cards. I don't know how feasible that is using Nintendo's current ROM solutions though,

It's not feasible at all. It wouldn't be ROM anymore at that point, and it would force them to use a DRM of some sort. No used games. This part of the idea just isn't something that's likely to happen. I also mentioned the business strategy stuff, but it's obvious that this doesn't matter to anyone and you guys just want cartridges back. Meanwhile, I'm the only biased one here...
 

MacTag

Banned
It also needs to be high speed. So cheap lower class SD cards wouldn't apply. Remember this was one of the reasons Sony said it went proprietary. They said regular cards weren't fast enough in their minds. (Take that as you will).
I believe this was one of the excuses for their memory cards, not their game cards. And testing proved Vita memory cards are slower than lower cost class 10 micro SD cards anyway.

I was always under the impression that Nintendo ditched mask ROM chips for the 3DS (and the higher capacity DS cards) in favour of EEPROM.
Not quite, 3DS cards use sonething called Nbit XtraROM. 3DS game cards still include some EEPROM for saves though.

Presumably Vita uses the same thing but I've also heard it just uses EEPROM and patitions a set amount for on card saves.
 

georly

Member
Let's say, witcher 3 NX edition on a cartridge won't have the horrible load times that ps4/xbone have?

Doesn't XB1 have mandatory installs for games? So you're basically running off the hard drive anyway? Yeah card would be faster than a normal HD, but HD is usually faster than disc, no?
 

Vanillalite

Ask me about the GAF Notebook
$2.50 difference was a bom estimate but logistics could reduce much further if case sizes shrink too. So rather than shipping in the old standard DVD/Bluray sized boxes they could ship in DS/3DS sized cases and slash crating and shipping costs even further. This also brings more potential savings when buying in at retail shelf space, stock buybacks, destruction/recycling costs, etc.

Card media is a cost that would add up for 3rd parties though so Nintendo needs probably to eat some of the difference upfront, particularly at 16GB+ capacities. As time goes on this will be less of an issue though due to economies of scale and the ongoing digital transition. And it futureproofs the NX ecosystem for any handheld support versus going with Bluray or UHD.

Again he takes the fact of smaller logistics to cut cost into account.

At best his numbers are

Disc
Total cost per unit annually: $2.24 (74 cents a unit in logistics)

Cart
Total cost per unit annually: $4.59 (59 cents per unit in logistics)

Small Cart
Total cost per unit annually: $3.91 (41 cents per unit in logistics)

So AT BEST your looking at $1.67 increase from $2.24 to $3.91.

That's not even counting the fact that he is going off of 3ds base numbers.

Next you have a cartridge SKU. Assuming they'd be packaged similarly to 3DS games, cartridge plus plastic clamshell case could cost $4 to manufacture in the bulk volume and contract discounts Nintendo would get

He's not even basing that # on higher capacity cards that would be needed. Plus they need to be faster since you'd be dealing with a fuck ton more data.
 
It's not feasible at all. It wouldn't be ROM anymore at that point, and it would force them to use a DRM of some sort. No used games. This part of the idea just isn't something that's likely to happen. I also mentioned the business strategy stuff, but it's obvious that this doesn't matter to anyone and you guys just want cartridges back. Meanwhile, I'm the only biased one here...

Oh, well like I said I have no idea how feasible it was but I thought it was worth discussing. Cartridges as a whole though is not a crazy concept, and I'm very convinced that Nintendo at the very least discussed the potential of removing the disc drive in favor of a cartridge slot(s) when discussing the NX hardware.

The potential benefits are just too great to ignore- even if they don't end up going in that direction it's certainly worth considering. Also I don't think anyone has made a persuasive case of this being an explicitly bad business decision. So what if it costs about $2 per 64GB cart? N64 had $55 carts and STILL had WAY more third party games than Wii U. Nintendo can offer to reduce their royalties, or otherwise eat some of that cost, but I don't see how $2 is prohibitively expensive, even assuming if the cost is as high as $2.
 

Eradicate

Member
Unless that different format allows the addressable market for many (not all) games to be larger since it can include users on both the console and handheld.

This is very true!

What's the typical profit margin a publisher makes on a game?

You can't just say that $2 isn't a big deal. If they sell a million copies, that's $2M they lost out on.

It's a good point because this is all about cost. We're all speculating about cartridges vs. discs, and I'm all for cartridges, but it has to be compelling pricewise. That said, there are things Nintendo can do to "eat" the difference. They could charge publishers less money to allow these games on their system, for instance. With a range of cartridge costs based on game size, depending on the type of game, it could be cheaper for the game developer overall. (Costing them a little more for very large games...which, in most of those cases, developers WANT their game on as many devices as possible to make money from sheer volume of sales.) So, if Nintendo's fee is $10 to put a game on their system now, but they lower that for NX to $7, that'd help a great deal. Then, if a 8 GB cartridge costs only $1, but a 64 GB costs $2.50, the smaller cartridges could end up being a cost savings for game developers compared to discs (maybe even compared to publishing with Microsoft and Sony, thus incentivizing 3rd parties back to the system).

That said, I know nothing. For all I know publishers only really care about the publishing fees while Nintendo (or Sony/Microsoft) have to figure out all the manufacturing costs. But, regardless, there ARE other costs out there and potential ways of handling them to make cartridges attractive.

My only real concern is what to do about developers releasing incomplete games, or at least games requiring a huge patch from the get-go. The console could have a small flash hard drive to handle downloading and installing the patch into the cartridge...but, what if they are read-only? Making them read/write seems to be begging for piracy problems! Also, was the developer expecting to do a huge patch? If not, then a big uh-oh if they didn't have the game printed on a big enough cartridge in the first place. That's my only real problem, and it seems that there has to be some sort of hard drive around anyways to help out these problems.

(I really think cartridges would be great!)
 
Nintendo is the type of company that would go back to cartridges. Come on this is Nintendo. They always do something different every gen and I love them for that. I hope they go to cartridges to be different and unique. There are lots of positives too from reading this latest discussion.

They could still do the haptic feedback, the AR, holograms. Who knows at this point.
 

diaspora

Member
Doesn't XB1 have mandatory installs for games? So you're basically running off the hard drive anyway? Yeah card would be faster than a normal HD, but HD is usually faster than disc, no?

AFAIK the PS4 does too, I'm constant hitting storage walls.
 

Proelite

Member
It should be possible to keep total power consumption under 150watts with some slight tweaking to basically off the shelf parts.

Downclocked FX 6300 would line up with LCGEEKs cpu specs?


If Vegas had bets for NX TDP, I'll put my life savings on a console less than 100W TDP.
 

ozfunghi

Member
Again he takes the fact of smaller logistics to cut cost into account.

At best his numbers are



So AT BEST your looking at $1.67 increase from $2.24 to $3.91.

That's not even counting the fact that he is going off of 3ds base numbers.



He's not even basing that # on higher capacity cards that would be needed. Plus they need to be faster since you'd be dealing with a fuck ton more data.

Let's say there is a $2.5 loss per game. At an average of 10 games sold per sold console. Nintendo could easily foot the bill if they wanted. They will save a lot by excluding the disc drive (cost) as well as repairs (for malfunctioning discdrives). They could also keep the console (thus the packaging for the console) smaller and again save on stocking and shipping there. Also the use of cards might eliminate the need for installs (as often with discs) and cut down on the internal storage too.
 
My only real concern is what to do about developers releasing incomplete games, or at least games requiring a huge patch from the get-go. The console could have a small flash hard drive to handle downloading and installing the patch into the cartridge...but, what if they are read-only? Making them read/write seems to be begging for piracy problems! Also, was the developer expecting to do a huge patch? If not, then a big uh-oh if they didn't have the game printed on a big enough cartridge in the first place. That's my only real problem, and it seems that there has to be some sort of hard drive around anyways to help out these problems.

(I really think cartridges would be great!)

I really doubt they would completely ditch a hard drive (or SSD), since that would make it impossible for Nintendo to do any OS updates. In my hypothetical scenario, I'm thinking they would cut out the disc drive and stay with a very small and cheap HDD, something around 64gb or 128gb max, maybe with some of that reserved for OS updates. At this point I'm willing to bet such small HDDs are pretty cheap to include.
 

MK_768

Member
Not sure. This thing cannot sell for more than $299. Otherwise it's DOA. So, having said that, and if there is a relatively costly controller in it again, I wouldn't expect it to be much more powerful than a PS4. Certainly not noticeably powerful.

It's not that much of a stretch. It's exactly what I was saying before 10k's rumours. And now his sources have been proven false, I'm back to thinking that again.

Why do people like you speak in absolutes as if you are experts or can see the future lol?

It's funny and unfortunate at the same time.

Oh and confirmation bias.

10k says a source the power of NX is better than the PS4 and we got a select few thinking NX will be as strong as PS4K. Now Rogers comes along and says the specs are "good" and that is being taken a gospel as a bad thing by a few. Even going as far to say below XB1.
 

MuchoMalo

Banned
Oh, well like I said I have no idea how feasible it was but I thought it was worth discussing. Cartridges as a whole though is not a crazy concept, and I'm very convinced that Nintendo at the very least discussed the potential of removing the disc drive in favor of a cartridge slot(s) when discussing the NX hardware.

The potential benefits are just too great to ignore- even if they don't end up going in that direction it's certainly worth considering. Also I don't think anyone has made a persuasive case of this being an explicitly bad business decision. So what if it costs about $2 per 64GB cart? N64 had $55 carts and STILL had WAY more third party games than Wii U. Nintendo can offer to reduce their royalties, or otherwise eat some of that cost, but I don't see how $2 is prohibitively expensive, even assuming if the cost is as high as $2.

The main point that I'm trying to get across is that it's still going to need an HDD. The ~$3 additional cost (after factoring in making it re-writable and the higher capacities) is a difficult problem to explain, so I gave up on that one. Basically, it could cost them billions over the next few years if the console and handheld are both successful. Business don't just consider unit costs. The way around this is with a heavy digital push, which requires an HDD, which kills the "no moving parts" argument and reduces he potential savings on the hardware.
 

Ogodei

Member
I see no reason not to beat PS4, unless Nintendo is going for that lpddr ram that goes in 6 GB increments and chooses 6 over 12. That'd be the only way to go underspecced on RAM. For CPU/GPU, if they go with x86 as the rumors seem to be leaning, it would be hard for them to get something weaker in 2016, unless they just ordered the same chip as PS4 or X1.

I still say this thing NEEDS a second screen. How would you port Splatoon 1 otherwise? Especially having cross-compatible play on a level playing field (unless you just make people use the Gamepad, separately bought, but that will cut your audience drastically and defeat the purpose). Otherwise the gamepad users would be at an advantage if they tried to soft-emulate the touchscreen for superjumping by having the users scroll through a list of allies, the spawn point, or beacons.

And a Mario Maker port would go right out the window.
 

ZOONAMI

Junior Member
Could be that Emily's sources deliberately debunked 10ks sources even if they were accurate just to make everything about NX a mystery again prior to reveal...
 

bomblord1

Banned
The main point that I'm trying to get across is that it's still going to need an HDD. The ~$3 additional cost (after factoring in making it re-writable and the higher capacities) is a difficult problem to explain, so I gave up on that one. Basically, it could cost them billions over the next few years if the console and handheld are both successful. Business don't just consider unit costs. The way around this is with a heavy digital push, which requires an HDD, which kills the "no moving parts" argument and reduces he potential savings on the hardware.

SSD and Flash memory options do exist. As well as what the wiiU and Xbox One currently do allowing external drives (my personal favorite solution)
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Could be that Emily's sources deliberately debunked 10ks sources even if they were accurate just to make everything about NX a mystery again prior to reveal...

Why in the world would they do that? That doesn't make any sense.
 

MuchoMalo

Banned
SSD and Flash memory options do exist.

Of course, but they're too expensive to make sense for such a strategy right now. Maybe in a $400 SKU with a 500GB SSD vs a basic model for $300, but would something like that actually happen?

Could be that Emily's sources deliberately debunked 10ks sources even if they were accurate just to make everything about NX a mystery again prior to reveal...

lmao
 
Why do people like you speak in absolutes as if you are experts or can see the future lol?

It's funny and unfortunate at the same time.

Oh and confirmation bias.

10k says a source the power of NX is better than the PS4 and we got a select few thinking NX will be as strong as PS4K. Now Rogers comes along and says the specs are "good" and that is being taken a gospel as a bad thing by a few. Even going as far to say below XB1.

Because it's common sense. You only think it's confirmation bias because it's something you don't want to hear. And 'people like me' are perfectly qualified to talk about trends in the industry.

Please tell me, in what world, when Nintendo's relevancy in the home console space is the worst it's ever been, does it make sense for them to release a console at a premium price? It's not as if they've just come off the back of a killer generation like Sony had with the PS2.
 
The main point that I'm trying to get across is that it's still going to need an HDD. The ~$3 additional cost (after factoring in making it re-writable and the higher capacities) is a difficult problem to explain, so I gave up on that one. Basically, it could cost them billions over the next few years if the console and handheld are both successful. Business don't just consider unit costs. The way around this is with a heavy digital push, which requires an HDD, which kills the "no moving parts" argument and reduces he potential savings on the hardware.

Again I certainly understand the need for a HDD or at least SSD or flash, specifically because the NX OS would need space for inevitable updates. Also third parties love their day 1 patches and DLC, so yeah, of course you'd need at least a small amount of space. I'm mainly saying that by removing the optical drive and keeping the storage low (like, less than 500gb or 1tb) they can save money on the BOM that can be used on a beefier GPU, or that can be used to just make the console MSRP cheaper.

No moving parts is nice, I built my laptop for just that, but that's not exactly what I'm arguing here.
 
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