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Russia begins Invasion of Ukraine

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EviLore

Expansive Ellipses
Staff Member
63WThFO.jpg


Normal life, tovarisch.
 
Don't be so dense.

Think about the wider impacts of this statement.

Morale boost for the people of Ukraine, knowing the outside world thinks they will be the victors and the country will be re-built by 2028 to such a level to host a major world wide sporting event.

Doesn't matter if its a reality, its the message it sends that's important now.
Brother, that just clears the way for exciting and lucrative new construction projects.
 

Ionian

Member
Brutal takedown:




"Believe me...we are living in a severe informational war--and war of fakes." -Kremlin spokesperson

Oh, I believe you, Dmitry.


My God the combo of the heli destroyed and then him visually have no control over the conversation, he looks like he hasn't slept. and got trounced on.
 

Wildebeest

Member
Bojo just said that chemical weapons or tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine would produce a "visceral" reaction across the world, and Putin could expect "catastrophic" consequences if he uses them. That is what he calls an "ambiguous" message. In Syria, Obama famously put down a "red line" on use of chemical weapons but did nothing when they were used.
 

TransTrender

Gold Member
Someone blew up a Russian ship.The one totally destroyed is an Alligator class landing ship, and the specific one appears to be the Orsk, number 148 commissioned in 1968. The near ship appears to be marked 55, which is the Admiral Nevelskoy, a Ropucha class landing ship commissioned1982.


Awesome video. I wonder what the story is here.
Looks like one boat is down while another was burning while heading out and the third one had something smoldering on the bow.
 
Bojo just said that chemical weapons or tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine would produce a "visceral" reaction across the world, and Putin could expect "catastrophic" consequences if he uses them. That is what he calls an "ambiguous" message. In Syria, Obama famously put down a "red line" on use of chemical weapons but did nothing when they were used.

He is a windbag
 

EviLore

Expansive Ellipses
Staff Member


The Times’s Visual Investigations team analyzed dozens of battlefield radio transmissions between Russian forces during an initial invasion of the town of Makariv, outside Kyiv. They reveal an army struggling with logistical problems and communication failures.
 

Thaedolus

Member


How would you feel if the country that your son was sent to invade is doing more to get you news of his death than your own country which sent him there? Obviously this is serving Ukraine’s purposes too, but still, one side is very much incentivized to tell the truth, and the other is basically always incentivized to lie at every turn.
 
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EviLore

Expansive Ellipses
Staff Member
Great read RE: talk with a former US marine fighting for Ukraine

Interesting read, yeah.

This brought Jed to the second subject he wanted to discuss: Russian tactics and doctrine. He said he had spent much of the past few weeks in the trenches northwest of Kyiv. “The Russians have no imagination,” he said. “They would shell our positions, attack in large formations, and when their assaults failed, do it all over again. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians would raid the Russian lines in small groups night after night, wearing them down.” Jed’s observation echoed a conversation I’d had the day before with Andriy Zagorodnyuk. After Russia’s invasion of the Donbas in 2014, Zagorodnyuk oversaw a number of reforms to the Ukrainian military that are now bearing fruit, chief among them changes in Ukraine’s military doctrine; then, from 2019 to 2020, he served as minister of defense.

Russian doctrine relies on centralized command and control, while mission-style command and control—as the name suggests—relies on the individual initiative of every soldier, from the private to the general, not only to understand the mission but then to use their initiative to adapt to the exigencies of a chaotic and ever-changing battlefield in order to accomplish that mission. Although the Russian military has modernized under Vladimir Putin, it has never embraced the decentralized mission-style command-and-control structure that is the hallmark of NATO militaries, and that the Ukrainians have since adopted.

“The Russians don’t empower their soldiers,” Zagorodnyuk explained. “They tell their soldiers to go from Point A to Point B, and only when they get to Point B will they be told where to go next, and junior soldiers are rarely told the reason they are performing any task. This centralized command and control can work, but only when events go according to plan. When the plan doesn’t hold together, their centralized method collapses. No one can adapt, and you get things like 40-mile-long traffic jams outside Kyiv.”

Centralized command for the Russians. Figures with their authoritarian DNA and conscript army.

Decentralized command is indeed the foundational principle of western military strategy. It requires good training and the ability for personnel to think for themselves in any given situation, but it is far superior.
 

Wildebeest

Member
Or, as Jed put it, “In Afghanistan, I used to feel jealous of those tankers, buttoned up in all that armor. Not anymore.”
It was like this for British tankers in North Africa in early WW2. They were so exposed and vulnerable to the heavier German shells that they feel much more safe in a trench. Tanks have almost always been death traps.
 

Liljagare

Member
Ukrainian government's guide "Start and steal Russian Tanks"

Applicable for T-72 and T-90.


[https://sprotyv.mod.gov.ua/portfolio/t-72/](https://sprotyv.mod.gov.ua/portfolio/t-72/)

Also a fun read.

Russia is doing such a good job at demilitarizing Ukraine that the Ukrainian military now has more tanks than at the start of the war.


Also, theese aint great numbers

 
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Liljagare

Member
Looking at raw data numbers, it is really looking more and more like Ukraine will be able to defend itself, unless Russia starts tossing in chem weapons, or strategic nukes.

Personally, I am holding all thumbs available in the family for this slight glimmer of hope to be true.

Also, looking at Scandinavia, most nations are at Defcon 1 now. :/

Between Sweden and Finland, its 1 million boots hitting the ground, with a double tap possible.
 
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I...really can't imagine Russia even holding on until the end of April at this point.
What scares me is Putin could do something big that could end up affecting more than Ukraine at this point.

He has already mentioned nuclear weapons right? What are the odds of that happening at this point?

I can't imagine him telling those troops to go back home because they lost lol.
 

Liljagare

Member
Do you think that the people who have power in society have the same ideas about social relationships and other matters as the average Sven? People who have power in society are distinctly different from the average person, either innately or as a product of the process that drives them to compete all the way into the heights of power. Because they are different, their beliefs are different.

It was well understood that the effect of having a single currency system with multiple countries with different cultures and economies would cause economic problems, the fact that there were not massive government interventions to prevent high unemployment meant that Spanish and Greek citizens were incentivized to leave their home countries or regions in order to find work. The fact that the system demanded the individual change rather than the other way around reveals a preference.

Still waiting for a answer to the original question mate. So instead of mumbling about stuff that has nothing to do with it, maybe you could just give a answer to questions asked.

Though, NM, I like my ignore list.. :)
 
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Yoboman

Member


How would you feel if the country that your son was sent to invade is doing more to get you news of his death than your own country which sent him there? Obviously this is serving Ukraine’s purposes too, but still, one side is very much incentivized to tell the truth, and the other is basically always incentivized to lie at every turn.

Ukraine's use of information warfare is simply next level. They seem far more prepared for what a modern war looks like in terms of leveraging 21st technology communication
 

Havoc2049

Member


Great read RE: talk with a former US marine fighting for Ukraine

Great read. Everyone should check this article out.

Crazy to think that Ukraine might pull this one out and might actually win this thing. Although they have been preparing for this moment for like 7 years now. I've been watching some of the miltary training that they have been doing since 2014 and it has been pretty intense. Parents were even sending their teenagers to military training summer camps. Hardcore.
 


How would you feel if the country that your son was sent to invade is doing more to get you news of his death than your own country which sent him there? Obviously this is serving Ukraine’s purposes too, but still, one side is very much incentivized to tell the truth, and the other is basically always incentivized to lie at every turn.


There was a post on reddit a while ago where Ukrainians contacted the mother of a dead soldier on facebook and told her to come get her son with a picture of his dead body.
 
...and nothing worth was lost in the world




I believe this is now the 4th Russian general killed in this war.

Ukraine must be getting very good intel from the West on the locations of these generals. Or there could be intel leaking from inside Russia at high lelevelsOr both.

In any case, Ukraine keeps taking out these high value targets.

Edit: Seems this might be the 6th KIA Rissian general. Because it was 5 just 2 days ago.


Wow I just read this:
On average, Russian professional soldiers of junior ranks earn US$480 (£360) a month, whereas their equivalents in the Ukrainian army are receiving three times that figure. The division between pay, working conditions and morale could play a big role in determining the outcome of this conflict.
 
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Tams

Gold Member
I...really can't imagine Russia even holding on until the end of April at this point.
What scares me is Putin could do something big that could end up affecting more than Ukraine at this point.

He has already mentioned nuclear weapons right? What are the odds of that happening at this point?

I can't imagine him telling those troops to go back home because they lost lol.
I think it more likely that there's a revolt amongst the Russian army. One officer has already been run over.

There's not much Putin can do about that from behind the walls of the Krelim/his Ural bunker if he's not prepared to seriously invest in improving morale (much better pay, decent food...)
 

Rentahamster

Rodent Whores
I wonder if Russia's actions can be explained via the degradation of the concept of MAD. If Russia's nuclear arsenal has become partially defunct, then their second strike capabilities would be severely curtailed. The reason that the "But Russia needs to protect itself from invasion!" argument is dumb is because under MAD, Russia is never getting invaded. However, if Russia's nukes suck now, and MAD is only partially relevant, then they would have reason to fear a more traditional invasion.

In such a scenario, the important questions are: if we know they can't fully enforce MAD, if they know we know, and if we know they know we know.

Game theory is a bitch.
 
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