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Russia begins Invasion of Ukraine
- Thread starter AfricanKing
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Bitmap Frogs
Mr. Community
Good news! Latest from def_mon, he usually runs a very conservative map and nothing gets considered liberated without photo proof:
winjer
Member
Patrick S.
Banned
That second tweet is fire
Lukaku's First Touch
Member
How wide is that river, pretty much impossible to build a pontoon bridge over that no?
Bitmap Frogs
Mr. Community
If you mean the large river that runs north-south? That's the Dnieper, it averages at 2,5 mile wide, but at its widest near Kherson it reaches 5 miles.
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NoLootBoxDev
Member
That peace plan was complete shit.
-Redo elections of annexed regions under UN supervision. Russia leaves if that is the will of the people.
Yea, let's give it legitimacy to the ones who made it at gunpoint.
- Crimea is formally part of Russia, as it has been since 1783 (until Khrushchev’s mistake).
It belongs to Ukraine, plain and simple, mistake or not. It's been 60 years since that, enough to be considered part of Ukraine, on maps, and everything else. If not, why Ruzzia attacked and made a false referendum to take the land?
- Water supply to Crimea assured.
This does not even make sense. Someone stole my land and I have to give him more things?
- Ukraine remains neutral.
Every country can decide what they want/can join.
Answer these questions:
Will you give up your property if someone tells you to do so?
Would you take away something at gunpoint that was given to you 60 years ago, just because it belonged to you in the past?
Would you pay for the maintenance of the things the robber got from you?
Would you accept that someone does not allow you to eat food, just because he does not want you?
akimbo009
Gold Member
It's shocking how close Musk sounds like a Russian propagandist....
ItsGreat
Member
'According to Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Peresvet laser complexes were to enter service in December 2019.[1] The complexes have been deployed with the road-mobile ICBM launchers with the task of covering their maneuvers.'
Peresvet (laser weapon) - Wikipedia
Christ on a bike. If Europe goes dead tomorrow at least you won't have me here saying I told you so.
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Bitmap Frogs
Mr. Community
LimanimaPT
Member
Yeah, great deal for Ruzzia. Give to Ruzzia everything they want. Elon Musk lost a lot of credit in my account.
IndoAssassin
Banned
It’s a world problem not just him problem.
He’s just stating the inevitable to look like he’s smart. As idiotic as his statement is there more than likely will end up being a peace deal in the end and Ukraine will have to cede some territory most likely Crimea.
Russia has never admitted defeat in every war it’s fought in history without losing at minimum 500,000 soldiers.
If killing 50,000 soldiers per month is sustainable that’s a minimum 5 years this war goes on.
We have to factor in weapon supply rates over this period. US is already approaching minimum supply of their reserves. This amount of weaponry Ukraine receives will depend on the manufacturing rate and how the US rebuilds its reserve.
There is also supply chain issues of essential elements.
Why there's a neon shortage — and why it matters
We are now living through the second neon shortage caused by upheaval in Ukraine. Only time will tell how seriously the issue is.
www.rdworldonline.com
Also the famine resulting from this war will be catastrophic over the next few years.
Musk made his statement to take credit in the future if this war ends in a peace deal. He’s an asshole, idiotic, narcissist.
But the fact is, there will be even more death due to this war of not just Russian and Ukrainian soldiers but more innocent civilians will die also even more people around the world will die.
The problem is the people around the world where majority of the famine is will blame the West rather than Russia.
I would like to be proven wrong but I don’t see it especially with future supply chain issues and it’s effect on inflation and death around the world while we hit deep recession.
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Patrick S.
Banned
More practical than stealing washing machines I guess. Fucking pigs.
Whitecrow
Banned
'According to Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Peresvet laser complexes were to enter service in December 2019.[1] The complexes have been deployed with the road-mobile ICBM launchers with the task of covering their maneuvers.'
Peresvet (laser weapon) - Wikipedia
en.m.wikipedia.org
Christ on a bike. If Europe goes dead tomorrow at least you won't have me here saying I told you so.
What the fuck...
This looks scary as hell... is the doomsday coming?
Lady Jane
Banned
No, don't ban them. I care about ruining the ideology of Communism more-so than the name. Authoritarian and centralized heavy governments are doing their best to distance themselves away from labels such as Communism. So when a party that labels themselves as "Communists" start praising that authoritarian and centralized ideology, it reminds people where that comes from. Too many have forgotten where those ideas originated.
Trust me, the real enemy wants this party gone because they don't want them to start saying the same things they want to say. Let that Communists party sing.
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Lukaku's First Touch
Member
yep, dont think the russians are going to cross that soon then.
FunkMiller
Banned
If you think any peace deal involves anything other than Russia completely removed from Ukraine, you haven’t been paying attention to what’s going on.
Musk is a fucking moron on this.
akimbo009
Gold Member
It’s a world problem not just him problem.
He’s just stating the inevitable to look like he’s smart. As idiotic as his statement is there more than likely will end up being a peace deal in the end and Ukraine will have to cede some territory most likely Crimea.
Russia has never admitted defeat in every war it’s fought in history without losing at minimum 500,000 soldiers.
If killing 50,000 soldiers per month is sustainable that’s a minimum 5 years this war goes on.
We have to factor in weapon supply rates over this period. US is already approaching minimum supply of their reserves. This amount of weaponry Ukraine receives will depend on the manufacturing rate and how the US rebuilds its reserve.
There is also supply chain issues of essential elements.
Why there's a neon shortage — and why it matters
We are now living through the second neon shortage caused by upheaval in Ukraine. Only time will tell how seriously the issue is.
Also the famine resulting from this war will be catastrophic over the next few years.
Musk made his statement to take credit in the future if this war ends in a peace deal. He’s an asshole, idiotic, narcissist.
But the fact is, there will be even more death due to this war of not just Russian and Ukrainian soldiers but more innocent civilians will die also even more people around the world will die.
The problem is the people around the world where majority of the famine is will blame the West rather than Russia.
I would like to be proven wrong but I don’t see it especially with future supply chain issues and it’s effect on inflation and death around the world while we hit deep recession.
The inevitable? You're back at your old Russian talking points... Ukraine doesn't have to concede anything here. Elon Musk is just parroting Russia too - not "expressing the inevitable".
Pretty sure at this point Ukraine is just going to march into Crimea at this point, and getting it back.
NoLootBoxDev
Member
'According to Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Peresvet laser complexes were to enter service in December 2019.[1] The complexes have been deployed with the road-mobile ICBM launchers with the task of covering their maneuvers.'
[/URL]
Christ on a bike. If Europe goes dead tomorrow at least you won't have me here saying I told you so.
from the Wiki:
"At the same time, its effectiveness directly depends on environmental conditions: in good weather, it works perfectly, but fog, rain, snow and other adverse weather events can interfere with the passage of the laser beam. The expert also added that such installations consume a lot of electricity, so using them as a portable tool is unlikely to succeed; in the future they will be able to protect military bases and other locations from penetrations of UAVs into their territory.[9] The system can also blind enemy satellites in orbits of up to 1,500 km and "disabling them during their fly-past by means of laser irradiation", according to Deputy Prime Minister of Russia Yury Borisov.[3]"
Knowing the shit status of everything on the Ruzzian army, it could be just a nice Lazer that does nothing.
funkygunther
Banned
'According to Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Peresvet laser complexes were to enter service in December 2019.[1] The complexes have been deployed with the road-mobile ICBM launchers with the task of covering their maneuvers.'
[/URL]
Christ on a bike. If Europe goes dead tomorrow at least you won't have me here saying I told you so.
totally a Russian super laser weapon and not just light pillars
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_pillar
Bitmap Frogs
Mr. Community
'According to Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Peresvet laser complexes were to enter service in December 2019.[1] The complexes have been deployed with the road-mobile ICBM launchers with the task of covering their maneuvers.'
Peresvet (laser weapon) - Wikipedia
Christ on a bike. If Europe goes dead tomorrow at least you won't have me here saying I told you so.
Lasers need clear skies or they quickly lose coherence, and in both photos they shooting straight into a cloud...
If that unit is part of an ICBM convoy... why drag that thing within striking distance from Kharkiv? ICBMs have a long, long range.
I think this is a show of force, after Kharkiv he announced mobilization, now he's lost a large chunk of Kherson and is lighting these things.
Finally, this thing is designed to blind targets as they pass over, not permanently disable them - so we won't see satellites dropping dead.
Putin is swinging his dick, in my honest, uninformed opinion. If that is the laser weapon, that is.
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NoLootBoxDev
Member
I read that he is in a panic because the "nice things" he needs comes from Ruzzia, so sanctions and the war makes things more expensive for his ventures. You know, "human life < money" for the rich.
LimanimaPT
Member
And it's not even portable. Do they think ukraine will attack ruzzian territory?
Those must be ligths from some night club.
D
Deleted member 1159
Unconfirmed Member
It seems to be a real big thing in the billionaire club tbh. See also: the guys buying up old silos to turn them into apocalypse bunkers with their own private security forces to guard them, etc. (as if your money is going to mean shit to the guys with the guns you hired to protect you after the end of the world…)
NoLootBoxDev
Member
pretty much as you said it he is just:
They have to wait for fog or bad weather and then hit them. Boom!!! lost it all.
Brazen
Member
Putin trying to call batman to save his arse!
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Bitmap Frogs
Mr. Community
Ah, there's something similar in Horizon Forbidden West, and turns out the rich person
made everyone else get a brain implant that would kill them on command
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funkygunther
Banned
hot on the heels of countless reports that Russia's decrepit Cold War shite keeps getting dismantled by Ukrainian paper, in run the propagandists to shout "no guys Russia has mega badass tesla coils for real!"
D
Deleted member 1159
Unconfirmed Member
Oh yeah I read something about the billionaires planning something similar for their security forces.Ah, there's something similar in Horizon Forbidden West, and turns out the rich personmade everyone else get a brain implant that would kill them on command
See that’s why they’re so rich and I’m not
FunkMiller
Banned
'According to Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Peresvet laser complexes were to enter service in December 2019.[1] The complexes have been deployed with the road-mobile ICBM launchers with the task of covering their maneuvers.'
Peresvet (laser weapon) - Wikipedia
Christ on a bike. If Europe goes dead tomorrow at least you won't have me here saying I told you so.
Mother fucker is handing out tampons to his soldiers, and using forty year old tanks, and you think he can activate giant frickin’ lasers, like something from a fucking Austin Powers movie?
InverseAgonist
Banned
It's not just that, it's a rational opinion by those that actually think about these things. See this piece: https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/10/04/why-elon-musk-is-right/
I highly recommend this article and it does a good job of trying to get into the head of the Russians, something I attempted to explain here to no avail. Also, the quote by Dean Acheson on his dealings with Imperial Japan are interesting.
Of course you're right concerning existential risk. But there are many reasons, I have articulated several that have continually hit the drumbeat that every day this conflict goes on we're rolling the dice on a low-probability, high impact tail-event happening. This is just logical common sense and the Nordstream events are nothing compared to what could happen. The US defense analysis of Russia believes they will escalate-to-deescalate. They have already claimed the territories as sovereign and their constitution allows the conditional release of nuclear weapons in the event of a threat to the regime. And it goes beyond the tactical, battlefield use of a nuclear weapon. What if they start sinking Western flagged cargo vessels carrying arms? (This was done in WW1, WW2, Vietnam, etc) Or a freight-train carrying armaments staffed by westerners? Or hit a staging area for supplies in Poland with stand-off weapons?
These are real concerns in the real world for policy makers -- this is why zero NATO member wanted to act as the go-between staging area for Western jets.
This thread is certainly not reflective of rational thought or what genuine thinkers ponder.
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funkygunther
Banned
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InverseAgonist
Banned
Read the whole piece. It's worth your time.
I guarantee you will learn more from investing your time into that than posting in this thread.
FunkMiller
Banned
Disastrous for Ukraine. No way they can win this war, if all they can do is easily retake multiple enemy held positions in a single day.
They should negotiate peace now, and hope Russia is kind to them.
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funkygunther
Banned
Read the whole piece. It's worth your time.
I guarantee you will learn more from investing your time into that than posting in this thread.
I would if it was a message delivered in a contextually coherent and genuine manner and not shoe-horned in as a means to ride on the coat-tails of a Musk tweet it has nothing do with, I'm ok being ignorant of the message of this article based solely on the
delivery method deployed
Bitmap Frogs
Mr. Community
FunkMiller
Banned
Ah, the Quincy Institute.
I was entirely unsurprised to see that the article came from them... and entirely unsurprised to see that dude quote from it. Not really much genuine thinking going on if you're posting Quincy Institute stuff.
InverseAgonist
Banned
The author's background:
George Beebe is Director of Grand Strategy at the Quincy Institute. He spent more than two decades in government as an intelligence analyst, diplomat, and policy advisor, including as director of the CIA’s Russia analysis and as a staff advisor on Russia matters to Vice President Cheney. His book, The Russia Trap: How Our Shadow War with Russia Could Spiral into Nuclear Catastrophe (2019), warned how the United States and Russia could stumble into a dangerous military confrontation.
The Institute is defined on Wikipedia as:The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft is a U.S. think tank founded in 2019 and located in Washington, D.C., named after former U.S. president John Quincy Adams. It has been described as "realist" and advocating for "restraint" in U.S. foreign policy.
Initial funding for the group, launched in November 2019,[2] included half a million dollars each from George Soros' Open Society Foundations and Charles Koch's Koch Foundation.[3][4][5] Substantial funding has also come from the Ford Foundation, the Carnegie Corporation of New York, the Rockefeller Brothers Fund, and Schumann Center for Media and Democracy.[6] The institute distinguishes itself from many other think tanks in Washington, D.C. by refusing to accept money from foreign governments.[7]
How horrible when you can get both Soros and Koch to fund you! Ugh... this place. So many "war hawks". How many of you have actually, you know, fought in a war that's not CoD?
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FunkMiller
Banned
The politics ban precludes me from pointing out the central - and glaringly obvious - flaws in your defence.
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InverseAgonist
Banned
No, that's a cop out.
The "glaringly obvious flaw" is your argumentum ad hominem against the author. I bet you didn't even read it. You just argue based on logical fallacies and cheap bullshit to support your predefined outcome for the scenario at hand in Ukraine.
Lukaku's First Touch
Member
Blyatman
FunkMiller
Banned
Yes, dear. That’s exactly it.
We’re all just sheep who swallow the stupid idea from mainstream media and government sources, that Ukraine can win back its sovereignty, and drive a dreadful army of rapists and idiots out of their country.
Whereas you and your fellow travellers are big brained free thinkers, who know what should definitely happen in the war - because of all the completely reliable, and not at all biased organisations you pull your information from.
Well done you!
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Bitmap Frogs
Mr. Community
Blyatman
My official nominee for best post in this thread so far.
InverseAgonist
Banned
Another article that's a good data point: Talking is not appeasement — it’s avoiding a nuclear armageddon
Of the 30 wargames they've run on Ukraine-Russia conflict, 28 have ended with a nuclear escalation. I find this scary. Manifold Markets information market is betting on a ~14% chance of a nuclear event by the end of 2023, that's an order of magnitude higher than the earlier "expert" opinions. I find this terrifyingly high.
Where are your end-games that avoid this? Could you point to some formal institute sanctioned wargames that avoid this fate? Thanks!
Of the 30 wargames they've run on Ukraine-Russia conflict, 28 have ended with a nuclear escalation. I find this scary. Manifold Markets information market is betting on a ~14% chance of a nuclear event by the end of 2023, that's an order of magnitude higher than the earlier "expert" opinions. I find this terrifyingly high.
Where are your end-games that avoid this? Could you point to some formal institute sanctioned wargames that avoid this fate? Thanks!
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Bitmap Frogs
Mr. Community
I don’t doubt George Beebe is a very learned and accomplished gentlemen. And he’s probably spent way more time than I have thinking about these affairs.
But about 2 days before the Kharkiv counteroffensive started, he wrote an article on TheHill that one of the realities that Washington needs to take into account is that Ukraine is incapable of taking back land.
According to that article you posted he’s war gamed scenarios and maybe, just maybe, he’s crystal ball ain’t working that well. I don’t know
I’m just a simpleton shitposting on NeoGAF.edit: it's been pointed to me that the wargaming exercise was not done by George Beebe himself
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