So, Ukraine must bend over because of some war games? Nice.
Hell, let's surrender to Russia the whole baltic area, then maybe Germany. Let them take every country without nukes because boo hoo, they have nukes.
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Russia begins Invasion of Ukraine
- Thread starter AfricanKing
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So, Ukraine must bend over because of some war games? Nice.
Hell, let's surrender to Russia the whole baltic area, then maybe Germany. Let them take every country without nukes because boo hoo, they have nukes.
InverseAgonist
Banned
I don’t doubt George Beebe is a very learned and accomplished gentlemen. And he’s probably spent way more time than I have thinking about these affairs.
But about 2 days before the Kharkiv counteroffensive started, he wrote an article on TheHill that one of the realities that Washington needs to take into account is that Ukraine is incapable of taking back land.
According to that article you posted he’s war games scenarios and maybe, just maybe, he’s crystal ball ain’t working that well. I don’t knowI’m just a simpleton shitposting on NeoGAF.
I can agree that:
- (1) He's thought more than us about this
- (2) He has more knowledge and wisdom about the Russians than us
- (3) He was wrong, as you stated.
- (4) That's the business, right about somethings, wrong about others. But when you're sick you go to a doctor, when a hurricane comes and your electric lines go down, you wait for a linesmen. The type of quarterbacking for continued war in this thread is not only naïve, it's disgusting. And, because people are unable to have multiple lines of thought at the same time, it's not as disgusting as the horrible atrocities the Russians are committing, but IR isn't predicated on that, it's built on leadership and necessity and thinking in modes of rationality and understanding and compromise to MINIMAX what could happen in the next step. What's happening in Ukraine isn't what you think, it's raw geopolitics being played.
And with that, it's been a slice. Nice post demonstrating that you didn't read or comprehend a single thing that was said. And great inference from... not sure what exactly, but ok. Have a good one.
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Bitmap Frogs
Mr. Community
lol i fell right into that one thats what i get for posting in a hurry...
But your comparison between professionals is flawed as you can find equally learned analysts with widely differing opinions which means there's no way to know who is right until after the fact and at that point what is their value?
Meanwhile a linesmen will fix your line guaranteed.
And please, don't take it as a slight against the profesison - I'm just the kind of man that would trust an accountant before I would trust an economist.
Bitmap Frogs
Mr. Community
The latest from PutinTV, courtesy of Julia Davis:
Well, since you asked… I received one of these from over a decade ago:
"V" device - Wikipedia
I’ll let you draw your own conclusions on how that came to pass.
On the subject of your linked article, I have to ask… what software or format is this guy using to conduct the wargames? What are the variables used? What is taken into account? The entire premise of the article revolves around the results of these simulations he ran, of which the data was not shared.
I ask these important questions because wargames often come with caveats.
Wargames Need Accurate Logistics | SCM Globe
Wargames are not only for war. They are a way for groups of people to think about a wide range of situations and how they might respond. Wargames are being adopted to explore challenges and devise strategies in many areas: military campaigns; disaster response; business operations; and...
www.scmglobe.com
What I am getting at, is that not all wargames are created equal. Warhammer is technically a wargame. Without context, the author’s claims hold little weight to me. I have worked directly alongside numerous defense contractors large and small and like with anything else, they vary in scope and quality.
This is not to say that wargames don’t have value, because they certainly do. In fact, in one such wargame, the simulation resulted in the US getting whooped in a fight over Taiwan. There’s a good reason why the US military is adapting tactics.
‘It Failed Miserably’: After Wargaming Loss, Joint Chiefs Are Overhauling How the US Military Will Fight
In a fake battle for Taiwan, U.S. forces lost network access almost immediately. Hyten has issued four directives to help change that.
www.defenseone.com
In fact, the Air Force has fully embraced updating their doctrine and have incorporated a new framework called Agile Combat Employment:
Wargames aside, the article you linked mentions that Ukraine doesn’t have the resources to win anything and yet, the ground truth paints a very different reality. I wonder if in the thirty wargame scenarios he ran, the northern half of Kherson was taken by October 5th?
LongestLine
Neo Member
If you give land to an invading force because they have nukes, then they'll still have nukes, and land, and the knowledge that they can conquer more land that way.
DaleinCalgary
Member
eh, just give Ukraine nukes
NoLootBoxDev
Member
Donald Trump Jr. pushes withholding Ukraine aid amid Hurricane Ian recovery
newsweek.com/donald...
Idiot Junior, get your head outside of Putler's ass.
NoLootBoxDev
Member
The Russian Federation attacked the Kyiv region with kamikaze drones: there is a fire in Bila Tserkva, there is a casualty
unian.ua/war/rf...
Another crime against civilians, but yes, we should give everything the Ruzzian wants and how they want it......because it is the right thing to do /s
NoLootBoxDev
Member
NoLootBoxDev
Member
ManaByte
Gold Member
Turns out Roger Waters is a Kremlin propagandist.
www.rollingstone.com
Roger Waters: I'm on a Ukrainian 'Kill List'
In an explosive, wide-ranging interview, the Pink Floyd co-founder discusses his controversial views on Ukraine — and Russia, and Wikileaks, and Israel, and so much more.
www.rollingstone.com
We'll keep Gilmour, fair trade
Funny she brings up Georgia. Georgia and Russia were in the same country because Russia claimed it as an imperial conquests. Georgia was a republic for only a few years 'living side by side' before the the USSR took it back. 80 years of indoctrination, brainwashing, and attempts to remove Georgian culture followed. Dumb whore.
InverseAgonist
Banned
First of all, and most importantly, thank you for your service. We all are truly indebted to you for your sacrifices and those of your friends and servicemen.
This is a great point. If I have free time tomorrow I will reach out to the author, but he (also a senior editor at 19FortyFive on the side) claims it was done for a private defense contract. So, we shall see what he'll says.
Also agreed. I was fortunate to sit in for a single session of a wargame while at the institution which shall go nameless because it'll just be mocked again by those that instead use TikTok as the source of all knowledge back in the 2007 timeframe concerning a confrontation with Iran as the red team. It was sort of neat to see it unfold and how asymmetric warfare was [badly] modeled. So you're totally right about the shortcomings, but I would suggest to you I would prefer an ensemble of models over nothing to base my decision making on.
I remember this. I don't want to go to off-topic, but I think the US would be in a lot of trouble if China decided to go all in over Taiwan. It's no longer 1998 when Clinton could and did actually sail a carrier battle group into the South China Sea and the Chinese had no idea where it was. Today, Guam and Japan and SK and any sea within DF-21D range is fucked. The American public would get a rude awakening losing 5,000 sailors in a few hours. If you're interested or have a counter-point, feel free to message me.
That's what I think people here are missing. The West is exogenously pumping in the weapons to fight in Ukraine and they are basically strategically stable. They're making good progress in recapturing front-line towns like Kharkov or the salient at Lyman, but this is tactical stuff. Frankly, a realistic analysis would be that the Ukrainian military power is over-rated in here. To accomplish the types of things people in here think (or desire or wish) to happen when I've pushed for their realistic end-game scenario -- like pushing the Russians out of Ukraine proper back to basically Bucharest 1994 lines and reset Crimea and everything will require strategic movement hundreds of miles deep and equipment that they just lack. To do this will require huge escalations in equipment to engage mobility and airpower, otherwise it's going to be this grinding it out, first world war style battle as Russia mobilizes. That's where the article I posted and the scary wargames come into play. Herman Kahn wrote an excellent 1964/5 book on escalation and it's noteworthy for it's 'ladder of escalation.' I don't know about you, but I see it happening. The west is keeping this war going, without the west this is over tomorrow. It's basically a proxy war that's getting ratchet up hard by the west and Putin, who is now threatening to throw the trump card down. I don't want to see if he plays it over a single hand in the game of geopolitics that the west will win in the long-run anyways.
I would like to thank you again for your service and the very thoughtful reply. It's most appreciated!
GladiusFrog
Member
Good to see Ukrainian forces show decency to enemy POWs.
Fuck me he even brought the coke bottle. Many people will surrender. Do Ukrainians also make shawarma with pork and chili peppers like Georgia?
akimbo009
Gold Member
You're getting high on your fumes again.
Ukraine is in the process of breaking through the lines in Kherson, and recapturing it. But you'll probably just move the goal posts again, and say it's not really THAT import and rattle off some other town that's actually really and truly important.
And to this nugget...
....without the west this is over tomorrow....
No man, this is over once Putin gets the fuck out. Whether with a Ukrainian boot up it or not. This war would be over if Putin just left instead of being the imperialistic fucker that he is. You don't even complete your thought which is... The west SHOULD stop funding Ukraine so RUSSIA can get properly take over Ukraine. Cause for all your hand wringing and ever so thoughtful concern about nukes is all bullshit to cover for your simping for Putin.
Putin has no trump card, he has no way out but getting out or killed in office. Any use of nukes by Russia will guarantee that so it's not even an option - so completely baffled why you bring that out if you "wargamed" it out.
Anyway - just wall of condescending text with the conclusion that Ukraine should just quit and it's all the west's fault they are even in this mess...
(And I won't even go into the weird ass China dick suck you tossed in there for good measure)
amazing how the far left and far right are basically the exact same but with different costumes
Good to see confirmation the Ukrainians are doing the right thing to POWs, treating them better than the Russian army apparently. Hopefully, we see more videos like this and let the Russians know if they surrender they be treated like men and not pigs being led to the slaughter like their own country is doing.
InverseAgonist
Banned
Thanks for the productive and informed (as usual) reply that doesn't address any salient points made.
I will not stoop to your level of discourse, which is just amazingly biased.
I will say that I do wish this generation was smart enough to be able to abstract themselves from a situation and articulate logical paradigms and models of the situation without regard to their personal feelings on the issue. I don't like the Russians, but I try to understand them. How do you function? How do you have stable and true friendships or relationships without being able to actually understand the other sides position, even if you think it's wrong or, in this case, evil?
akimbo009
Gold Member
Weird play. Now you're concerned about my friendships? You're very kind to be so concerned, but get along just fine.
The fact you want "fair and balanced" debate about Russia - as if there is any good fucking news coming out in Russia's behalf - is mind boggling. It not bias when the facts simply say Russia is losing, and losing badly.
Some more of that "bias" for you.... Meanwhile, dig up some "good news" for Russia.
InverseAgonist
Banned
I, and most of the people you have scared off for questioning if the current ratcheting up of tempo with more advanced western arm shipments and where it's leading, are not pro-Putin. We are not pro-Russia. We all despise what's happened.
This is not a simplistic binary zero-sum game where if I'm not in favor of (A), I'm automatically supporting option (B). The world doesn't work that way, I've said this before. You're polarizing this to such an extreme, that to you if you're not for some un-defined total victory like this was a video game you're in favor of the enemy. It doesn't work like that. That's with-us-or-against-us bullshit that's ripping much of the western world apart politically.
What you don't realize, I won't hypothesize on the reasons why, is that this is reflective of you and your cognitive abilities and imagination. Not our positions.
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akimbo009
Gold Member
Guess this woman should also temper her view...
Sorry if I have extreme view points about child rapists and murderers. Guess I'm flawed.
I should. But I like see the shifting talking points tankies are getting from the Kremlin. First it was "it's inevitable, they should quit", then it was "but they have a Nazi inspired patch", now it seems to be a mixture of whataboutism and capitulation to nuclear brinkmanship. It's at least a little entertaining.
Tams
Member
'According to Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Peresvet laser complexes were to enter service in December 2019.[1] The complexes have been deployed with the road-mobile ICBM launchers with the task of covering their maneuvers.'
Peresvet (laser weapon) - Wikipedia
en.m.wikipedia.org
Christ on a bike. If Europe goes dead tomorrow at least you won't have me here saying I told you so.
Time for you to go to bed.
Russia arenct going to nuke Europe because if they do, the utter destruction and death that would rain down on them in retaliation would be unimaginable.
MidGenRefresh
*Refreshes biennially
Solovyov looks fit enough for Russian standards. I would say give him some tampons and send him to the front.
Models are useful, but nothing beats real world data and live results. Ukraine is making moves based on access to US satellite info and other intel. And they have undoubtedly weighed the risks with regards to Russia and nuclear weapons. Frankly, the tensions are certainly high, but I’m no more uncomfortable now than I was during the Cold War. I was in West Germany when the Berlin wall fell as an Army brat, so the whole nuclear devastation thing is kind of a tired talking point for me. But my numbness to warfare in general does skew my perspective, so I will acknowledge that limitation.
I wouldn’t define it as being fucked, but I would agree that the US would not be able to steamroll China near their home turf. Definitely a lot of trouble as you put it. China doesn‘t have the capability to project their military power like the US can (yet), but China has the massive home field advantage, with a gap that is ever-shrinking in their favor. It doesn’t help that the US is heavily reliant on satellite communications for a lot of what we do, and there’s good reason why China demonstrated their ability to weaponize space and blew up a satellite years ago. They’ve essentially made it so there can be no clear winner in such a conflict, and the situation becomes more trouble than its worth for both sides. The US can’t widen the gap via technology, so the change in tactics was required to maintain status quo.
I don’t think Putin has enough influence and power to convey such an order and have it actually be executed. The generals will do what they’re told… to a point. I sincerely believe nukes are the line.
I fully expect the continued use of harsh language as opposed to actual nuke deployment as per all the other significant Cold War moments in history where the world was on a knife’s edge. Same song, same dance, different decade.
MisterFalcon
Member
A lot of these Russia experts seem to have problems accepting Ukraine as anything but a chip on the bargaining table to be haggled over between the Real Powers. They are quite a force for Putin in their repeated assertions, backed by an appearance of expertise, that Russia is just too powerful to not appease.
Bitmap Frogs
Mr. Community
So, despite the troll assault, yesterday was a great day.
Ukraine finally rolled on the Kherson front and today I am looking at where the new defense line fully sets.
Lost in the events was the liberation of Borova, the biggest city in Kharkiv still officially occupied. While the orcs have left the oblast, Ukrainian troops haven’t finished the process of going town by town to officially liberate them.
Meanwhile, some news from Luhansk would be nice to have:’we know they’ve been pounding Kreminna, Svatove and the road that connects them.
Ukraine finally rolled on the Kherson front and today I am looking at where the new defense line fully sets.
Lost in the events was the liberation of Borova, the biggest city in Kharkiv still officially occupied. While the orcs have left the oblast, Ukrainian troops haven’t finished the process of going town by town to officially liberate them.
Meanwhile, some news from Luhansk would be nice to have:’we know they’ve been pounding Kreminna, Svatove and the road that connects them.
FunkMiller
Banned
All of this is why I can’t really get all that angry about the collection of veiled pro-Russian, anti western folks we appear to have attracted in this thread recently.
Facts trump feelings, every time. And the facts on the ground tell us that Ukraine is trouncing Russia at every turn.
The kind of gaslighting & thinly veiled propaganda nonsense we‘ve seen on display here is part of the kind of information and fake news warfare Russia was successfully fighting for years… until they invaded Ukraine.
Turns out they can’t actually fight a proper war, which is the important thing.
I’m sure all the ‘peace talk’ and ‘escalation concern’ will calm down as Ukraine continues to take their country back.
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ItsGreat
Member
MAD isn't it.
FunkMiller
Banned
Donald Trump Jr. pushes withholding Ukraine aid amid Hurricane Ian recovery
newsweek.com/donald...
Idiot Junior, get your head outside of Putler's ass.
Safe to say that everyone should be roundly ignoring anything coming from the Trump family on this particular topic.
belmarduk
Member
Turns out Roger Waters is a Kremlin propagandist.
Roger Waters: I'm on a Ukrainian 'Kill List'
In an explosive, wide-ranging interview, the Pink Floyd co-founder discusses his controversial views on Ukraine — and Russia, and Wikileaks, and Israel, and so much more.
Roger Waters may be, but Pink Floyd strongly supports Ukraine.
ItsGreat
Member
Who exactly are you calling pro-Russian? I don't believe anyone can be pro-Russian in western Europe. They're just about to hang Germany industry out to dry once the gas becomes scarce this winter.
The sad fact is that Russia play a massive part along side the US in the geopolitics of the world.
It's another sad fact that the Ukraine is just a small cog in it all.
I don't think people realise how physically big Russia is, how much Europe relies on Russia for energy or how easily Russia will switch to doing business to the east.
History exists outside you're liberal fantasy worlds. You can't Nintendo Defence Force your way through it.
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FunkMiller
Banned
Anyone who advocates for an end to this war that does not result in Russia leaving Ukraine completely is pro-Russian, because it advocates for Russia to get what it wants.
This is a war. You don’t get to obfuscate or fudge things the same way you can do with ephemeral things like culture or politics.
And you’re still talking about the Russia we thought existed before this war began. It doesn’t exist. The war has proved that.
The west is moving away from its stupid reliance on Russia, and then Russia will fall to pieces.
This conflict is not going to end with Ukrainian land in Russian possession. It’s going to end with the collapse of the current Russian state. Time to start accepting that.
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Doczu
Member
No. No, no, no. Krteček Land is not getting access to the sea on my watch. You can "ahoy" all you want, no sea for you!Some memes is getting out of hand
Królewiec is polish and we want it back cause the damn soviets stole it from us.
You don't want another shit throwing contest like we both did for Cieszyn Silesia?
ItsGreat
Member
I absolutely accept and believe that Ukraine are looking to to be getting 100% of their land back if they continue this hard fought battle.
But the debt is going to be massive. The neoliberals are already getting ready to move in and 'cut red tape'
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...laws-and-step-up-privatisation-to-fix-economy
What I don't accept, and will only believe when I see it, is Russia changing its geopolitical outlook. They might change who is at the head of it but they will turn their business towards the east.
M1chl
Currently Gif and Meme Champion
Královec rightful Czech landNo. No, no, no. Krteček Land is not getting access to the sea on my watch. You can "ahoy" all you want, no sea for you!
Królewiec is polish and we want it back cause the damn soviets stole it from us.
You don't want another shit throwing contest like we both did for Cieszyn Silesia?
Referendum spoke clearly, so it is what it is
Also if you have a problem with that, we have solution
MidGenRefresh
*Refreshes biennially
Doczu
Member
That's how WW3 will start
ape2man
Member
havent thought about this. But it makes sense, i do share this slight dread with elon when you realize the cold war only "ended" only 30 years ago.
MidGenRefresh
*Refreshes biennially
FunkMiller
Banned
War is expensive. You can blame Vladimir Putin for it happening.
The current Russian administration isn't going to change its outlook, but it's not going to be that administration for all much longer.
The west fundamentally made a huge error when the Berlin wall came down. It thought Russia would actually become a free, democratic modern state on its own, without any intervention. That mistake won't happen again. It's clear that for Russia to join the 21st century, and exist as a constructive member of the international community, it first needs to be torn to fucking pieces, and rebuilt in a way that's more appealing to the rest of the civilised world.
This is really what this entire conflict is about.
Ukraine is the catalyst.
funkygunther
Banned
the cynical analysis has always been that liberals, that is to mean actual economic liberal capitalists and not the American colloquial definition of woke libtards, have seen post-war Ukraine as a resource rich country that has the potential of producing 44 million workers and consumers for the companies and corporations that prop up these liberal economies
the debt, whatever it may be, will have been factored alongside everything else into the debtors calculations...that everything else including the support from the two signatories of the last peace treaty signed that didn't break the agreement
where you might see debt and neoliberal vultures encircling, you could easily just see international allies helping a country defend against an aggressor, even if that help comes at the price of fitting into an existing economic structure...Russia can try to find its own allies in the East as much as it wants, these countries will be looking for a much more favourable deal than Russia was getting from Europe
nemiroff
Gold Member
On the news they're saying that Norwegian F-35s have been sent out on a quick action alert mission. Which means the ruzzians are provoking NATO airspace (not uncommon..). There's a lot of "stuff" happening here now, the mobilisation force is on high alert and those on standby are being called in for training and to guard oil and gas facilities.. Nothing to be immediately worried about, but things are tensing up a bit. And it's not off-topic..
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FunkMiller
Banned
Yeah. Russia and China do enjoy poking the bear when they think things are either not going right for them, or just want to assert whatever authority they think they have.
Sadly, the west has been far too lenient on these kinds of actions over the decades, leading to more and more of it happening. It'll be interesting to see what the response would be now, if Russia were to invade NATO airspace. I'm betting there's more of a chance of stuff getting shot down now.
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