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[kikkis]

The OEC data states US to be the biggest importer and exporter when it comes to goods etc with China. Europe comes next. That includes oil. ruZZian oil could not replace that oil in wartime due to transfer problems. It cant do that even in peace time.

Where do you get the idea of China knowing more about manufacturing then west? 90% of chips in the world comes from Taiwan, 10% from USA and 7% from China. Good luck making anything in the short term without cooperation.

Thats just chips and i am sure even 7 percent is enough for war effort. Here is one analysis of chinas manufacturing capabilities

 

[Ironbunny]

Thats just chips and i am sure even 7 percent is enough for war effort. Here is one analysis of chinas manufacturing capabilities

I agree on the Chinas manufacturing capasity at the moment. And that has mainly been due to low cost and man power. One reason for the high introduction of robotics is the rising cost of labour thats been seeing western companies moving to India etc.

What comes to war everything depends on what kind of war you are talking about. Long, short, isolated or global. Chinas military is not rival in global terms yet.

But this is becoming rather off-topic so I`l end here.

 

[Apocryphon]

The OEC data states US to be the biggest importer and exporter when it comes to goods etc with China. Europe comes next. That includes oil. ruZZian oil could not replace that oil in wartime due to transfer problems. It cant do that even in peace time.

Where do you get the idea of China knowing more about manufacturing then west? 90% of chips in the world comes from Taiwan, 10% from USA and 7% from China. Good luck making anything in the short term without cooperation.

Somebody doesn’t do math

 

[CSJ]

90% of chips in the world comes from Taiwan

Just to make sure people remember, those machines are built by a dutch company, with parts being supplied by 800 global suppliers.
I'm not sure about the landscape of EUV lithography+ in 2023 and onwards but last I heard they still had a monopoly on the entire thing and yeah, are banned against selling certain stuff to China.

I'd guess in a decade or so we'll see more of them in the EU and US but at what level compared to ASML, who knows!

 

[winjer]

Thats just chips and i am sure even 7 percent is enough for war effort. Here is one analysis of chinas manufacturing capabilities

It's not just a matter of percentage. China can barely produce anything at 7nm or smaller.
And they don't have any capabilities to produce anything with EUV.
What China can produce is the low end stuff, in old process nodes.

The mid range nodes are made in Europe, USA, Taiwan and South Korea. None of these countries have good relations with China.
All of them have already imposed chip restrictions on China, with South Korea being a bit hesitante.

The high end chips are all made in Taiwan and the USA. And this only happens because TSMC and Intel have access to ASML machines.

To make high end war equipment, a country needs high end chips. To develop new tech in AI, medicine, manufacturing, etc, a country needs high end chips.
This is why China complains so much about the western chip restrictions.

 

[Ironbunny]

Somebody doesn’t do math

Yea, of all different chips its 90% advanced chips and 65% of of the rest for Taiwan.

"Taiwan makes 65% of the world’s semiconductors and almost 90% of the advanced chips.

By comparison, China produces a little over 5% while the U.S. produces approximately 10%, according to market analysts. South Korea, Japan, and the Netherlands are the other sources of the product, which is at the heart of many electronic devices and machinery."

 

[Tams]

Somebody doesn’t do math

Maybe they think Taiwan = China (PRC)?

It wouldn't be they first time we've had a pink tankie on this forum.

 

[Liljagare]

 

[RJMacready73]

That's a lot of drones those fuckers are firing, the West needs to be intercepting these shipments or outright sinking the ships, where are they landing and being stored and why aren't we fucking sending a few cruise missiles into them and to fuck with Russia's ever shifting redlines

 

[winjer]

 

[NoLootBoxDev]

 

[Apocryphon]

It's not just a matter of percentage. China can barely produce anything at 7nm or smaller.
And they don't have any capabilities to produce anything with EUV.
What China can produce is the low end stuff, in old process nodes.

The mid range nodes are made in Europe, USA, Taiwan and South Korea. None of these countries have good relations with China.
All of them have already imposed chip restrictions on China, with South Korea being a bit hesitante.

The high end chips are all made in Taiwan and the USA. And this only happens because TSMC and Intel have access to ASML machines.

To make high end war equipment, a country needs high end chips. To develop new tech in AI, medicine, manufacturing, etc, a country needs high end chips.
This is why China complains so much about the western chip restrictions.

“high end war equipment”

Some of the most potent weapons in use today were designed and manufactured in the 70s and 80s. Chip supply is an issue, but it isn’t going to have a meaningful impact on short term conflicts.

 

[winjer]

“high end war equipment”

Some of the most potent weapons in use today were designed and manufactured in the 70s and 80s. Chip supply is an issue, but it isn’t going to have a meaningful impact on short term conflicts.

Making a big boom is not the be all, in a conventional war.
Something this war has proven, is that a few smart and precise missiles are worth a lot more than hundreds of dumb bombs.

 

[Apocryphon]

That's a lot of drones those fuckers are firing, the West needs to be intercepting these shipments or outright sinking the ships, where are they landing and being stored and why aren't we fucking sending a few cruise missiles into them and to fuck with Russia's ever shifting redlines

Understanding thought process, but I have to imagine that they are being delivered to ports within Russias borders and then delivered to the front by truck or rail? NATO isn’t going to attack freight ships in international waters or warehouses within Russian territory. Right now these actions would have to be carried out by Ukraine and I’m guessing they lack armaments with sufficient range to do what you’re suggesting. I’m 100% sure they are actively working on how best to tackle it, but if they can shoot down most of the drones regardless, maybe they are happy to let Russia bring them in.

 

[Apocryphon]

No,

Making a big boom is not the be all, in a conventional war.
Something this war has proven, is that a few smart and precise missiles are worth a lot more than hundreds of dumb bombs.

No, what this war has proven is that logistics, supply lines, good intelligence, and effectively trained soldiers make a far bigger difference than the age of the weapons being deployed. Even Patriot is from the early 80’s.

 

[Darius87]

that's what awaits russians in counteroffensive except abrams

 

[Apocryphon]

that's what awaits russians in counteroffensive except abrams

Where are those cool little tiny tracked things that were announced a few weeks ago? I can’t remember what they are called but I don’t think they’re listed in this image.

 

[Tams]

that's what awaits russians in counteroffensive except abrams

'Challenger 1'

Lol, no. Only Jordan have any approaching serviceable and even they have retired them.

 

[winjer]

No,

No, what this war has proven is that logistics, supply lines, good intelligence, and effectively trained soldiers make a far bigger difference than the age of the weapons being deployed. Even Patriot is from the early 80’s.

The Patriots had several new iterations over the years. And even those are smart weapons with precision guidance.
The biggest disruption to Russian supply lines were done by HIMARs. Another smart precision weapon.

 

[Apocryphon]

The Patriots had several new iterations over the years. And even those are smart weapons with precision guidance.
The biggest disruption to Russian supply lines were done by HIMARs. Another smart precision weapon.

HIMARS are still decades old, and yes they have put in work, but I’d argue that the biggest contributor to failing Russian supply lines is the dogshit state of their army. Stuff left to rot in long term storage, poor maintenance of things like tires, insufficient ration supplies, machinery stripped of components for sale on the black market etc..

 

[winjer]

HIMARS are still decades old, and yes they have put in work, but I’d argue that the biggest contributor to failing Russian supply lines is the dogshit state of their army. Stuff left to rot in long term storage, poor maintenance of things like tires, insufficient ration supplies, machinery stripped of components for sale on the black market etc..

Even Himars with a couple of decades, are better than anything Russians have. And the reason is that they are complex machines with precision guidance.
They alone forced the Russians to move all their ammo depots into Russia and only then take ammo to the front. This has put a huge burden on the poor logistic of the Russian army.
The same thing for Patriot, an advanced system that has nullified the Kinzhal, the most advanced Russian missile.
And the information Ukraine is receiving is due to advanced modern systems.
And the same for the F16s, the Abraams, the Leopards 2, drones, AT4, Javelin, Storm Shadow, etc.
Ukraine and Russia have started with soviet equipment, but the turning point for Ukraine is western equipment with advanced capabilities.
Even if the USA and EU give Ukraine equipment that is 1 or 2 decades old, it is still much better than the stuff Russia ever had in the battlefield.

 

[Apocryphon]

Even Himars with a couple of decades, are better than anything Russians have. And the reason is that they are complex machines with precision guidance.
They alone forced the Russians to move all their ammo depots into Russia and only then take ammo to the front. This has put a huge burden on the poor logistic of the Russian army.
The same thing for Patriot, an advanced system that has nullified the Kinzhal, the most advanced Russian missile.
And the information Ukraine is receiving is due to advanced modern systems.
And the same for the F16s, the Abraams, the Leopards 2, drones, AT4, Javelin, Storm Shadow, etc.
Ukraine and Russia have started with soviet equipment, but the turning point for Ukraine is western equipment with advanced capabilities.
Even if the USA and EU give Ukraine equipment that is 1 or 2 decades old, it is still much better than the stuff Russia ever had in the battlefield.

Right, but this wasn’t about Russia and Ukraine, we were talking about China, chip supply, and “high end war equipment” using those chips. Russia clearly wasn’t ready for such a large scale engagement and its military is and has been in a shoddy state for decades, but China is a different story no? Taiwan would have western supplied weapons like Ukraine, but continually supplying them would be far more difficult and Taiwan likely couldn’t defend themselves without direct military support from US carrier groups. It’s a far more complicated situation than Ukraine and not one that could realistically drag on for months or years. Chip supply and who manufactures or controls that stuff would be a very minor component of the actual conflict.

 

[Apocryphon]

Pilots Say F-16s Can Help Ukraine But Missiles Could Down Them

The F-16 jets that the Ukrainian military is touting as a potential gamechanger in its conflict with Russia will either be restricted to defense or deployed in very high-risk operations, according to people who’ve flown the planes in combat.

www.bloomberg.com

I’m not subscribed to Bloomberg but most or all of the article appears to be available here:

Pilots Say F-16s Can Help Ukraine But Missiles Could Down Them

It’s interesting that engagements in this war has been largely dictated by capable air defence on both sides. Let’s hope that if F16s are delivered, the Russians are spread too thin by to stop them.

 

[winjer]

Right, but this wasn’t about Russia and Ukraine, we were talking about China, chip supply, and “high end war equipment” using those chips. Russia clearly wasn’t ready for such a large scale engagement and its military is and has been in a shoddy state for decades, but China is a different story no? Taiwan would have western supplied weapons like Ukraine, but continually supplying them would be far more difficult and Taiwan likely couldn’t defend themselves without direct military support from US carrier groups. It’s a far more complicated situation than Ukraine and not one that could realistically drag on for months or years. Chip supply and who manufactures or controls that stuff would be a very minor component of the actual conflict.

Western technology is still more advanced than what China has.
And with China being left out of advanced chip manufacturing, this gap is going to increase.

 

[Apocryphon]

Western technology is still more advanced than what China has.
And with China being left out of advanced chip manufacturing, this gap is going to increase.

This is something we are in full agreement on. I think where we diverge is the degrees of advantage that gives in a short-medium term conflict in the South China Sea.

 

[NoLootBoxDev]

 

[TheDreadLord]

Understanding thought process, but I have to imagine that they are being delivered to ports within Russias borders and then delivered to the front by truck or rail? NATO isn’t going to attack freight ships in international waters or warehouses within Russian territory. Right now these actions would have to be carried out by Ukraine and I’m guessing they lack armaments with sufficient range to do what you’re suggesting. I’m 100% sure they are actively working on how best to tackle it, but if they can shoot down most of the drones regardless, maybe they are happy to let Russia bring them in.

Most of the shipments are coming from Iran through the Caspian Sea and the Astrakhan port. Not much can be done unless Ukraine is allowed to directly attack Russia territory. But as you say, if they are able to put down as many as they claim with regular equipment than perhaps it isn’t necessary to bother about. The issue is if they are relying too much on the Patriot system for that purpose as it is a very expensive piece of equipment (2-4mi USD each missile)

 

[Gp1]

Even Patriot is from the early 80’s.

You are not wrong, but this is wrong

Today's Patriots =/= Desert Storm Patriots.

 

[Panajev2001a]

Western technology is still more advanced than what China has.
And with China being left out of advanced chip manufacturing, this gap is going to increase.

Until it is not. They do have a huge internal market and easier access to rare minerals advanced chip manufacturing depends on. InHouse lithography equipment will improve, internal chip design will improve, material / IP / expertise will still migrate to China somehow. Their in-house CPU designs are still far from Ryzen / Penguin but far less than they used to be.

Thinking that somehow the West is magically going to always have the edge computing wise is a risky bet considering the corruption and market manipulation (some industries in need of anti trust action which is not coming) happening in major Western economies. Even if it were not a country like China, imagine the most democratic good and righteous country not called the US… if it were to surpass the US economically there would still be a reason to start a Cold War against (do we really think the US would accept any other country even indirectly being surpassed)… ok this was a bit of a long aside.

 

[winjer]

Until it is not. They do have a huge internal market and easier access to rare minerals advanced chip manufacturing depends on. InHouse lithography equipment will improve, internal chip design will improve, material / IP / expertise will still migrate to China somehow. Their in-house CPU designs are still far from Ryzen / Penguin but far less than they used to be.

Thinking that somehow the West is magically going to always have the edge computing wise is a risky bet considering the corruption and market manipulation (some industries in need of anti trust action which is not coming) happening in major Western economies. Even if it were not a country like China, imagine the most democratic good and righteous country not called the US… if it were to surpass the US economically there would still be a reason to start a Cold War against (do we really think the US would accept any other country even indirectly being surpassed)… ok this was a bit of a long aside.

They have a gigantic barrier in front of them: EUV.
It took the combined investment and research of many companies to make it happen. Intel, ASML, TSMC, AMD, IBM, etc.
It was one of the most difficult and biggest breakthrough in chip making ever. And it took many years. The scale was enormous.

But China doesn't have the technology, the money or the people to make it happen. And there isn't other countries with advanced tech, that China can join for such a gigantic project. They sure won't get much help from Russia that is still stuck with second hand machines that make 28nm chips.
And without EUV, there is no way they can make anything bellow N7.
The machines that China has to make chips are either Japanese or European. And now they lost access to them.

Regarding their internal market, it's not very big. China is a huge exporter, but their internal market is comparatively small.
It is not enough to drive profits big enough to feed the development of stuff like EUV.

Rare earth elements are not as rare as the name implies. In fact, they are very common.
It's true that China has the biggest natural reserves or rare earth minerals. But the reason they export so much is not because they are the only ones that have them. It's because they don't have the same restrictions in wages and environmental laws as the USA and EU.
So they can flood the market with cheaper prices.
Up until a couple of decades ago, the USA was the biggest extractor of rare earth minerals. But their mines had to close because of competition from China. But this also means their reserves have been untouched.

Regarding their economy, what we know is that their numbers are very inflated. I have seen predictions that put their real economy at 2/3 to 1/2 of what China reports.
China also prints money like there is no tomorrow. But with the difference that the Yuan is not the global currency, so there is no market to absorb so much cash flow.
The reality is that China is a house of cards, that is only held up by a very tight grip from a totalitarian regime.

BTW, have you seen the new laws China passed about spying?
They already had severe laws against it, resulting in many Chinese and foreigners being arrested for small things.
But these new laws make it even worse. And the result is that fewer companies and people are willing to go to China to invest or work there.
This is one of the reasons why so many companies are now looking for other countries to have their factories.

 

[nikolino840]

 

[GymWolf]

I bet they all love tea and windows.

 

[Bitmap Frogs]

in-house designs

While I won’t argue the rest, their latest superchip announced is a rebadged Intel 10th gen core series. It would seem they’ve decided, in the face of restrictions, that it’s better to buy readily available 3-4 year old tech for cheap than to try to kickstart an industrial sector under sanctions.

 

[kuncol02]

Rare earth elements are not as rare as the name implies. In fact, they are very common.

Yes. "Rare" in they name is not about how common ore is on earth, but how much of ore need to be processed to mine them. They exists in low concentration in ore which makes their mining expensive outside of countries like China.

 

[Liljagare]

They keep at it.. :\



More for the Hague trials:

​

"The wind was in the direction of the enemy": the Armed Forces of Ukraine revealed the details of the use of chemical weapons by the Russians - Ukraine Today .org

Inna Andalitskaya 15:32, 05/28/23 The use of prohibited weapons was recorded in the Avdiivka area. Russian invaders used chemical weapons against soldiers of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Avdiivka. There are no losses on the Ukrainian side, because the wind was in the direction of the enemy...

ukrainetoday.org

 

[Bitmap Frogs]

Btw, Ukraine keeps making small gains around Bahkmut daily, on the southern flank. The obvious immediate goal is the town of Klishchiivka but its natural defenses are very good so they’re working to envelop it hoping that the orcs will abandon the trench network on a hilltop overlooking the town.

 

[winjer]

Btw, Ukraine keeps making small gains around Bahkmut daily, on the southern flank. The obvious immediate goal is the town of Klishchiivka but its natural defenses are very good so they’re working to envelop it hoping that the orcs will abandon the trench network on a hilltop overlooking the town.

That's good news for Ukraine and on the other side, for Prigozhin. And bad news for Gerasimov.

 

[Tams]

Yes. "Rare" in they name is not about how common ore is on earth, but how much of ore need to be processed to mine them. They exists in low concentration in ore which makes their mining expensive outside of countries like China.

The extraction process also uses and produces some very nasty substances.

The PRC have no problem just leaving lakes of them lying around the likes of Inner Mongolia.

 

[kuncol02]

The extraction process also uses and produces some very nasty substances.

The PRC have no problem just leaving lakes of them lying around the likes of Inner Mongolia.

Yes. That's why it's cheaper in China.

 

[winjer]

Yes. That's why it's cheaper in China.

Cheaper, in a monetary scale.
But it has an immense cost in human health and in the environment.
The workers extracting these minerals, and the populations around these deposits are paying with their health and lives.
And future generations will pay an hefty cost to deal and clean up such levels of pollution.

 

[NoLootBoxDev]

 

[NoLootBoxDev]

 

[NoLootBoxDev]

This wont make it legal, you stupid piece of shit

 

[Liljagare]

Man, hope we identify every arse involved when this is all over. This is just pure terrorism.



But atleast air defence is doing its job well:



Poland..



This is just awesome though:




And now its over 2000. But beware, Russia hasnt even started yet. /s

For their newer equipment, confirmed loss rate oscillates around ⅓ of the production number. BTR-82: > 400 lost, ~1400 officially in equipment. Ka-52 helicopter? 35 out of 100. BMP-3? ~250 out of 750.

This is enormous rate of attrition. Remember that not every piece produced is operational, that there's normal wear and tear especially during the war, that some losses remain undocumented. Realistically more than half of their equipment is gone.

All of this for "SSpechul" military operation.

 

[MikeM]

Wonder how China feels about this. Giving nukes to countries unilaterally isn’t exactly a great look.

 

[winjer]

Russia is not giving nukes to other countries. They will place nukes on another country, but these will be manned only by the Russian military.
This means that the country that receives these nukes will have no control over them. But it will become a target for nukes from adversary countries.
So it's a lose-lose situation, for any country that accepts this deal.

Lukashenko had to accept the nukes in his country, because he depends so much on Putin. And Belarus already has Russian military troops in the country, to sway such decisions.

 

[Tams]

Wonder how China feels about this. Giving nukes to countries unilaterally isn’t exactly a great look.

Well never really know, as they're two-faced liars.

 

[Madserb2023]

China is very similar to Germany during WW1. They have a large population and a manufacturing capacity greater than its rivals but.....Germany lost. Germany didn't lose militarily, it lost because its navy had been destroyed and as a result the country was completely blockaded and this was before the complex supply chains we have today. China's manufacturing capacity is dependent on machine parts, resources from outside China. All you need to do is blockade China. That's what China is worried about, and why they want Taiwan in the first place. Taiwan has the ability to destroy any ships heading for China.

 

[Tams]

China is very similar to Germany during WW1. They have a large population and a manufacturing capacity greater than its rivals but.....Germany lost. Germany didn't lose militarily, it lost because its navy had been destroyed and as a result the country was completely blockaded and this was before the complex supply chains we have today. China's manufacturing capacity is dependent on machine parts, resources from outside China. All you need to do is blockade China. That's what China is worried about, and why they want Taiwan in the first place. Taiwan has the ability to destroy any ships heading for China.

Not to mention, oil and coal. Hence the military base in Djibouti.

Anyway, we're far off topic now.

 

[MisterFalcon]

Russia is not giving nukes to other countries. They will place nukes on another country, but these will be manned only by the Russian military.
This means that the country that receives these nukes will have no control over them. But it will become a target for nukes from adversary countries.
So it's a lose-lose situation, for any country that accepts this deal.

The presence of nukes also can be used by Russia to intervene whenever something happens they don't approve of.
"To safeguard the nukes against being taken by (insert baddie group here) we had to send an invasion force"