radioheadrule83
Banned
NOTES:
All Nintendo numbers are taken from the Nintendo FYE 2005 Annual Report, and this image referencing their end of quarter results (Sep 05). The original image is from Nintendo's press site. You can therefore extrapolate these numbers and charts with your own estimates from March 05 to the present for old hardware (likely pointless), and Sep to present for current hardware.
I've copied the FYE 05 numbers from the PDF here if you would like to see them:
Nintendo in Japan
Nintendo in the Rest of the World (and those numbers broken down by region)
For those who follow sales more closely I do realise that there may be nothing new for you here, or that I may have used erroneous data or statements. If you are aware of such things, please reply with what I should be using, and I'll gladly adjust the post.
==============================================
COMMENTARY:
Firstly, how do GBA and Gamecube stack up to previous Nintendo systems?
Gameboy: 118,690,000
N64: 32,930,000
GBA: 70,040,000
GC: 19,310,000
DS: 8,830,000
Hardware: We know that they've gone beyond these numbers now with GBA, Gamecube and DS. DS is closer to 13 million worldwide for example. But the picture likely remains relatively unchanged in terms of business proportion. Gamecube is not the success that Nintendo would have hoped. An idea about the extent of such failure can be gleaned from the fact that we know Nintendo would have liked to sell 50 million Gamecubes to gamers worldwide. This obviously never materialised. Gamecube has moved less units than N64 worldwide by about 10 million. In terms of raw hardware units, neither the Nintendo 64 or the Gamecube can compare with the success of monochrome Gameboy's 10 year dynasty, or its succeeding GBA line. Do Nintendo have to face a downward trend with regards their presence in the living room? Is there a similar trend in software? Maybe not.
Gameboy: 501,100,000
Nintendo 64: 224,970,000
GBA: 296,120,000
Nintendo Gamecube: 169,510,000
Nintendo DS: 23,800,000
Software: Again, GBA, Gamecube and DS numbers will have increased by now - to a greater extent than the hardware numbers have. Note the movement in the chart there. GBA squeezed inbetween that N64 and Gamecube business, DS growing healthily. Why's that happening? Take a look:
Weaker Gamecube hardware sales are offset for Nintendo by a stronger tie ratio. Its common knowledge that current iterations of Mario and Zelda have sold far less than their N64 counterparts. The Wind Waker for example has sold more in line with Majora's Mask and A Link to the Past than Ocarina of Time (which sold 3 times as many copies). So one can now ask themselves -- how does Gamecube manage to compare favourably in the tie ratio stakes?... hopefully Nintendo will have finally learned the value of having better third party support. With three systems being supported at present, its conceivable that Nintendo are moving more software than ever.
Obviously, tie ratio and third-party-based comparisons with the Xbox or PS2 wouldn't paint the Gamecube (or Nintendo generally) such a pleasant picture. The Gamecube still doesn't add up to a business that is as good for them as the N64 was, let alone earlier explosive 'entertainment system' success. They were also unable to replicate the kind of success a title like GoldenEye gave them. Such phenomenon titles have gone to Xbox or PS2 in now familiar form: GTA, Halo et al. Given that reality of things, how do the competition stack up?
N64: 32,930,000
GC: 19,310,000
Xbox: 21,900,000
PS2: 91,620,000
Incredible PS2 dominance. Imagine the software being moved on PS2 -- its clear as day as to why Sony enjoy such broad support. By contrast, Gamecube and Xbox are fighting for scraps -- each bested by the N64 before it. That particular battle isn't so simple though; its really quite far from being a neck and neck race.
If I could have found the data, one interesting Gamecube vs Xbox comparison would have been in software. In North America (and the rest of the western world in general), it is likely if not certain that Xbox's tie ratio and general third party business is what makes that gap between Xbox and Gamecube look much larger to Western publishers -- contributing to the poor Western Gamecube support, and bringing its twilight years (no pun intended) somewhat closer.
Speaking of Twilight, it will be interesting to see how these numbers change over the course of 2006. Gamecube is reaching rediculously cheap levels, and their highest-profile title to date is imminent. Is a strong PS2 lineup, the presence of Xbox 360 and increasing PS3 or Revolution hype enough to put Gamecube more firmly into its grave? OR -- is there some kind of freaky chance that Gamecube may be remembered more fondly on paper than it was by gamers?
As for PS2, is such success unprecedented?
Japan Hardware
Nintendo numbers sourced from Annual Report 05, NES and SNES sourced from earlier reports:
NES: 19,200,000
SNES: 17,150,000
Gameboy: 32,470,000
Nintendo 64: 5,540,000
GBA: 15,550,000 (6m approx GBA SP)
Nintendo Gamecube: 3,800,000
Nintendo DS: 2,120,000
PlayStation 2: 21,410,000
Xbox: 472,607
As you can see, theres an argument to suggest that Sony not only expanded the style of the industry with the introduction of PlayStation, but that it totally cannabilised Nintendo's market as well. I make no bones about it: the reason Sony are more successful currently is because they have a machine out there with greater support from publishers and the public, a system with an incredibly deep library that deserves to do well. We all know the kind of errors Nintendo has made. These are errors that have prevented them from being viewed anything like a Sony-esque company. Perhaps that Sony-led, Sony-oriented change in the market and Nintendo's inability to adapt to it, may explain why Nintendo has been completely unable to win back the buying public (from both Sony and Microsoft) -- and even provide a compelling argument for why they should chase another market, or at least appear as though they are, with Revolution.
The handheld picture is getting more interesting all the time too. The Gameboy brand is still strong, particularly in the US, DS is defying expectations and PSP is proving that Nintendo's days of handheld-monopoly are over and its here to stay. With 360 looking onto a horizon of PS3 and Revolution shaped storm clouds, it may be that only handhelds can hope to compete with the kind of numbers PS2 has achieved this generation.
Discuss.
All Nintendo numbers are taken from the Nintendo FYE 2005 Annual Report, and this image referencing their end of quarter results (Sep 05). The original image is from Nintendo's press site. You can therefore extrapolate these numbers and charts with your own estimates from March 05 to the present for old hardware (likely pointless), and Sep to present for current hardware.
I've copied the FYE 05 numbers from the PDF here if you would like to see them:
Nintendo in Japan
Nintendo in the Rest of the World (and those numbers broken down by region)
For those who follow sales more closely I do realise that there may be nothing new for you here, or that I may have used erroneous data or statements. If you are aware of such things, please reply with what I should be using, and I'll gladly adjust the post.
==============================================
COMMENTARY:
Firstly, how do GBA and Gamecube stack up to previous Nintendo systems?
Gameboy: 118,690,000
N64: 32,930,000
GBA: 70,040,000
GC: 19,310,000
DS: 8,830,000
Hardware: We know that they've gone beyond these numbers now with GBA, Gamecube and DS. DS is closer to 13 million worldwide for example. But the picture likely remains relatively unchanged in terms of business proportion. Gamecube is not the success that Nintendo would have hoped. An idea about the extent of such failure can be gleaned from the fact that we know Nintendo would have liked to sell 50 million Gamecubes to gamers worldwide. This obviously never materialised. Gamecube has moved less units than N64 worldwide by about 10 million. In terms of raw hardware units, neither the Nintendo 64 or the Gamecube can compare with the success of monochrome Gameboy's 10 year dynasty, or its succeeding GBA line. Do Nintendo have to face a downward trend with regards their presence in the living room? Is there a similar trend in software? Maybe not.
Gameboy: 501,100,000
Nintendo 64: 224,970,000
GBA: 296,120,000
Nintendo Gamecube: 169,510,000
Nintendo DS: 23,800,000
Software: Again, GBA, Gamecube and DS numbers will have increased by now - to a greater extent than the hardware numbers have. Note the movement in the chart there. GBA squeezed inbetween that N64 and Gamecube business, DS growing healthily. Why's that happening? Take a look:
Weaker Gamecube hardware sales are offset for Nintendo by a stronger tie ratio. Its common knowledge that current iterations of Mario and Zelda have sold far less than their N64 counterparts. The Wind Waker for example has sold more in line with Majora's Mask and A Link to the Past than Ocarina of Time (which sold 3 times as many copies). So one can now ask themselves -- how does Gamecube manage to compare favourably in the tie ratio stakes?... hopefully Nintendo will have finally learned the value of having better third party support. With three systems being supported at present, its conceivable that Nintendo are moving more software than ever.
Obviously, tie ratio and third-party-based comparisons with the Xbox or PS2 wouldn't paint the Gamecube (or Nintendo generally) such a pleasant picture. The Gamecube still doesn't add up to a business that is as good for them as the N64 was, let alone earlier explosive 'entertainment system' success. They were also unable to replicate the kind of success a title like GoldenEye gave them. Such phenomenon titles have gone to Xbox or PS2 in now familiar form: GTA, Halo et al. Given that reality of things, how do the competition stack up?
N64: 32,930,000
GC: 19,310,000
Xbox: 21,900,000
PS2: 91,620,000
Incredible PS2 dominance. Imagine the software being moved on PS2 -- its clear as day as to why Sony enjoy such broad support. By contrast, Gamecube and Xbox are fighting for scraps -- each bested by the N64 before it. That particular battle isn't so simple though; its really quite far from being a neck and neck race.
If I could have found the data, one interesting Gamecube vs Xbox comparison would have been in software. In North America (and the rest of the western world in general), it is likely if not certain that Xbox's tie ratio and general third party business is what makes that gap between Xbox and Gamecube look much larger to Western publishers -- contributing to the poor Western Gamecube support, and bringing its twilight years (no pun intended) somewhat closer.
Speaking of Twilight, it will be interesting to see how these numbers change over the course of 2006. Gamecube is reaching rediculously cheap levels, and their highest-profile title to date is imminent. Is a strong PS2 lineup, the presence of Xbox 360 and increasing PS3 or Revolution hype enough to put Gamecube more firmly into its grave? OR -- is there some kind of freaky chance that Gamecube may be remembered more fondly on paper than it was by gamers?
As for PS2, is such success unprecedented?
Japan Hardware
Nintendo numbers sourced from Annual Report 05, NES and SNES sourced from earlier reports:
NES: 19,200,000
SNES: 17,150,000
Gameboy: 32,470,000
Nintendo 64: 5,540,000
GBA: 15,550,000 (6m approx GBA SP)
Nintendo Gamecube: 3,800,000
Nintendo DS: 2,120,000
PlayStation 2: 21,410,000
Xbox: 472,607
As you can see, theres an argument to suggest that Sony not only expanded the style of the industry with the introduction of PlayStation, but that it totally cannabilised Nintendo's market as well. I make no bones about it: the reason Sony are more successful currently is because they have a machine out there with greater support from publishers and the public, a system with an incredibly deep library that deserves to do well. We all know the kind of errors Nintendo has made. These are errors that have prevented them from being viewed anything like a Sony-esque company. Perhaps that Sony-led, Sony-oriented change in the market and Nintendo's inability to adapt to it, may explain why Nintendo has been completely unable to win back the buying public (from both Sony and Microsoft) -- and even provide a compelling argument for why they should chase another market, or at least appear as though they are, with Revolution.
The handheld picture is getting more interesting all the time too. The Gameboy brand is still strong, particularly in the US, DS is defying expectations and PSP is proving that Nintendo's days of handheld-monopoly are over and its here to stay. With 360 looking onto a horizon of PS3 and Revolution shaped storm clouds, it may be that only handhelds can hope to compete with the kind of numbers PS2 has achieved this generation.
Discuss.
