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[Men_in_Boxes]

The 3 most important pictures in modern gaming are:

They all communicate what players wanted out of Marathon, but Embark was the studio to "get it".

 

[yurinka]

Three primary problems with Marathon...

1. New player onboarding.

2. The ratio of bad engagments : good engagments

3. The social experience.

Those 11 suggestions improve each pillar.



If we look at games in the same ballpark CCU wise as Marathon (Grey Zone Warfare, The Finals, ARK Survival Ascended, Street Fighter VI) you'll see team sizes...

A. Considerably smaller than Marathons "just under 300" team.

B. Considerably cheaper to run than Bungies Seattle based team.

Plus, those titles have long since plateued, Marathon hasn't. I don't think Marathon is dead, but it's vitals need improving, imo.

That "just under 300" was the lead dev team to develop the game for launch. But yes, very likely Marathon had a considerably bigger budget to release the game than these other titles, and pretty likely for post launch (at least the first few seasons).

When GaaS get released, traditionally a good chunk of the team moves on to start working on their next game, and a smaller live ops team continues there developing the post launch stuff. Like before the development, the big majority of the people working on that post launch content are from support/outsourcing teams.

After the first few post launch things, that normally are included in the development budget for launching the game, the post launch scope/budget/team size keeps periodically reviewed depending on the game performance: if it does considerably better than expected (rare cases of let's say Helldivers 2 or Arc Raiders) they increase their scope, or depending on the game (case of Destiny 2) they keep supporting it longer than expected.

The idea is always selffund post launch development with the money made by the game, meaning that when games don't generate enough they reduce their scope/team, to (after years always ends happening some day to all games) eventually stop development if the game can't pay it, or some time after it if not generating enough to pay the servers, shutting down the servers.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

That "just under 300" was the lead dev team to develop the game for launch. But yes, very likely Marathon had a considerably bigger budget to release the game than these other titles, and pretty likely for post launch (at least the first few seasons).

When GaaS get released, traditionally a good chunk of the team moves on to start working on their next game, and a smaller live ops team continues there developing the post launch stuff. Like before the development, the big majority of the people working on that post launch content are from support/outsourcing teams.

After the first few post launch things, that normally are included in the development budget for launching the game, the post launch scope/budget/team size keeps periodically reviewed depending on the game performance: if it does considerably better than expected (rare cases of let's say Helldivers 2 or Arc Raiders) they increase their scope, or depending on the game (case of Destiny 2) they keep supporting it longer than expected.

The idea is always selffund post launch development with the money made by the game, meaning that when games don't generate enough they reduce their scope/team, to (after years always ends happening some day to all games) eventually stop development if the game can't pay it, or some time after it if not generating enough to pay the servers, shutting down the servers.

True, but if you look at Live Service teams that are currently supporting longstanding games, you'll get a vague idea of how Marathon is doing.

Hunt Showdown (stable) is roughly as popular as Marathon (losing players) right now. The majority of Crytek (~350 large) is working on Hunt because that game is producing sizeable revenue.

Vague estimates put Bungie as ~2.5x more costly to run than Crytek based on employee pay.

That gives us a blurry idea of what Marathon needs long term. It needs to hit its floor sooner rather than later, and it needs solve for why players are bouncing.

I'm with you in that I think it's safe to say Sony puts a lot of resources towards Marathon for the next 6 - 12 months, but that 20% week to week drop is not great news for players who want to play this game long term.

 

[Mephisto40]

 

[yurinka]

True, but if you look at Live Service teams that are currently supporting longstanding games, you'll get a vague idea of how Marathon is doing.

Hunt Showdown (stable) is roughly as popular as Marathon (losing players) right now. The majority of Crytek (~350 large) is working on Hunt because that game is producing sizeable revenue.

Vague estimates put Bungie as ~2.5x more costly to run than Crytek based on employee pay.

That gives us a blurry idea of what Marathon needs long term. It needs to hit its floor sooner rather than later, and it needs solve for why players are bouncing.

I'm with you in that I think it's safe to say Sony puts a lot of resources towards Marathon for the next 6 - 12 months, but that 20% week to week drop is not great news for players who want to play this game long term.

Looking at the PSN user reviews comparing it to known sales of other games (considering if download only considering the average digital sales for games also available in retail), Marathon seems to have sold in PSN around 800K+. In Steam seems to be now at around 1M+. So adding other PC stores and Xbox pretty likely is around 2M or slightly above.

We have to consider that in addition to the $40 of the game there are the addons (digital deluxe editions, collector edition, battlepass, cosmetics). Like Helldivers 2, Marathon started with a limited number of addons which will be stacked (battlepasses won't expire) with the new ones. There are many cases (like Helldivers 2 or EAFC to name a couple) where the paid GaaS generate more from addons than from game purchases. So the addons are very important but still is too early to see their impact because they have to keep adding more and player have to keep playing more days to buy them.

We saw they didn't kill the game just after release and that plan to continue working on it, which means it wasn't a disaster. Pretty likely when just after releasing the season 2 (so a new batch of skins, battle pass, big batch of content and features, etc) in a couple months they'll review the status of the project and will have enough data to more properly evaluate how the game did in the launch window regarding revenue/profitability, active userbase, user retention, first average revenue per user, etc. and start to make long term projections.

Let's say by then they have sold 4M copies, that generated on average until then $55 each and with early S2 numbers they project that will make in the long term $80 per copy and Sony gets (after taxes, store costs, refunds etc) on average 75% of that. That would be around $240M around the start of season 2, having the game secured profitability (îf my $200-250M estimate is right) or almost, and future seasons get self funded adjusting resources as needed depending on performance.

Let's say my estimates are a bit too optimistic and they need a season or two more for the break even. Despite pretty likely not having achieved their pre-launch estimate, they'd still get the break even in the first year, which is better than many games, many of which never even get profitable.

Regarding the decrease, I'll post later the comparision with many of the most successful games of related GaaS subgenres. I assume that like last week won't be as bad as you think.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Looking at the PSN user reviews comparing it to known sales of other games (considering if download only considering the average digital sales for games also available in retail), Marathon seems to have sold in PSN around 800K+. In Steam seems to be now at around 1M+. So adding other PC stores and Xbox pretty likely is around 2M or slightly above.

We have to consider that in addition to the $40 of the game there are the addons (digital deluxe editions, collector edition, battlepass, cosmetics). Like Helldivers 2, Marathon started with a limited number of addons which will be stacked (battlepasses won't expire) with the new ones. There are many cases (like Helldivers 2 or EAFC to name a couple) where the paid GaaS generate more from addons than from game purchases. So the addons are very important but still is too early to see their impact because they have to keep adding more and player have to keep playing more days to buy them.

We saw they didn't kill the game just after release and that plan to continue working on it, which means it wasn't a disaster. Pretty likely when just after releasing the season 2 (so a new batch of skins, battle pass, big batch of content and features, etc) in a couple months they'll review the status of the project and will have enough data to more properly evaluate how the game did in the launch window regarding revenue/profitability, active userbase, user retention, first average revenue per user, etc. and start to make long term projections.

Let's say by then they have sold 4M copies, that generated on average until then $55 each and with early S2 numbers they project that will make in the long term $80 per copy and Sony gets (after taxes, store costs, refunds etc) on average 75% of that. That would be around $240M around the start of season 2, having the game secured profitability (îf my $200-250M estimate is right) or almost, and future seasons get self funded adjusting resources as needed depending on performance.

Let's say my estimates are a bit too optimistic and they need a season or two more for the break even. Despite pretty likely not having achieved their pre-launch estimate, they'd still get the break even in the first year, which is better than many games, many of which never even get profitable.

Regarding the decrease, I'll post later the comparision with many of the most successful games of related GaaS subgenres. I assume that like last week won't be as bad as you think.

I think our positions are just slightly off. I think Tassi said PlayStation 5 sales were closer to 250k than your estimated 800k, but I'm rooting for you to be correct because the game is great and has loads of potential.

NeoGAF will continue to do it's thing but the two big moments that will inform us are A. when it hits its floor and B. How the launch of S2 impacts popularity. Unfortunately we will have to suffer through waves of repetitive drive bys and low effort gifs until those two things take place.

 

[HRK69]

'How I, One Random Forum Guy, Will Save Bungie's Extraction Shooter'

It is the exact same trash as every 'here is how to save (dying game)' thread that has ever existed. The structure, the tone, the fake expertise. It is never about the tweaks. It is the performance of being the one genius who sees the path forward

Men_in_Boxes doesn't just post. He performs.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

WET FART

It's not that deep. This is a videogame discussion board where people theoretically like discussing videogame related topics.

And again, Bungie is having these conversations right now.

 

[sodstall]

Just lock map selection to perimeter(beginner) for like 10 successful exfils. No need to squishify the whole game just cause people have gear fear and a skill issue doing the tutorial.

The most lamp brained individuals are probably bouncing off the opening freebie run cause they die to security and just take the easy way out(cowards way out) and skip it, learning absolutely nothing about how the game is going to work going forward.

Again, the biggest mistake people are making about this game is assuming the fact that because its bungie it means they are going to be handed a swell ass time when the whole process of pushing the boulder IS the swell ass time. Most of the bailers are just people dont know what they want, and will force things into boxes until its so misguided and mishappen that they forget why they were even interested.

 

[kadab]

I think our positions are just slightly off. I think Tassi said PlayStation 5 sales were closer to 250k than your estimated 800k, but I'm rooting for you to be correct because the game is great and has loads of potential.

NeoGAF will continue to do it's thing but the two big moments that will inform us are A. when it hits its floor and B. How the launch of S2 impacts popularity. Unfortunately we will have to suffer through waves of repetitive drive bys and low effort gifs until those two things take place.

 

[PontificationEngine]

I don't think the game needs saved. It's great how it is today. Minus cryo archive. 🫩

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Just lock map selection to perimeter(beginner) for like 10 successful exfils. No need to squishify the whole game just cause people have gear fear and a skill issue doing the tutorial.

The most lamp brained individuals are probably bouncing off the opening freebie run cause they die to security and just take the easy way out(cowards way out) and skip it, learning absolutely nothing about how the game is going to work going forward.

Again, the biggest mistake people are making about this game is assuming the fact that because its bungie it means they are going to be handed a swell ass time when the whole process of pushing the boulder IS the swell ass time. Most of the bailers are just people dont know what they want, and will force things into boxes until its so misguided and mishappen that they forget why they were even interested.

Completion rate isn't the problem.

Fun is the problem.

Obviously, increasing the completion rate on Perimeter is going to impact fun, but I don't see that as a real solve. Here's the issue imo...

Killing another team is fun 90% of the time.
Dying to another team is only fun ~50% of the time.

They have to bring "death fun" up to 60% or 70% to keep players playing.

 

[PeteBull]

No need to save marathon, pc gamer gave it 9/10 review, ign too
Hell even sellout like jeff gertsman gave it perfect 5/5 score.
Cant improve upon perfection after all

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Looking at the PSN user reviews comparing it to known sales of other games (considering if download only considering the average digital sales for games also available in retail), Marathon seems to have sold in PSN around 800K+. In Steam seems to be now at around 1M+. So adding other PC stores and Xbox pretty likely is around 2M or slightly above.

We have to consider that in addition to the $40 of the game there are the addons (digital deluxe editions, collector edition, battlepass, cosmetics). Like Helldivers 2, Marathon started with a limited number of addons which will be stacked (battlepasses won't expire) with the new ones. There are many cases (like Helldivers 2 or EAFC to name a couple) where the paid GaaS generate more from addons than from game purchases. So the addons are very important but still is too early to see their impact because they have to keep adding more and player have to keep playing more days to buy them.

We saw they didn't kill the game just after release and that plan to continue working on it, which means it wasn't a disaster. Pretty likely when just after releasing the season 2 (so a new batch of skins, battle pass, big batch of content and features, etc) in a couple months they'll review the status of the project and will have enough data to more properly evaluate how the game did in the launch window regarding revenue/profitability, active userbase, user retention, first average revenue per user, etc. and start to make long term projections.

Let's say by then they have sold 4M copies, that generated on average until then $55 each and with early S2 numbers they project that will make in the long term $80 per copy and Sony gets (after taxes, store costs, refunds etc) on average 75% of that. That would be around $240M around the start of season 2, having the game secured profitability (îf my $200-250M estimate is right) or almost, and future seasons get self funded adjusting resources as needed depending on performance.

Let's say my estimates are a bit too optimistic and they need a season or two more for the break even. Despite pretty likely not having achieved their pre-launch estimate, they'd still get the break even in the first year, which is better than many games, many of which never even get profitable.

Regarding the decrease, I'll post later the comparision with many of the most successful games of related GaaS subgenres. I assume that like last week won't be as bad as you think.

You're the only person constantly trying to claim marathon sold over 2M.

Latest estimates were 1.2M total. Gamerlytics latest PC estimate is now at 773k as per their link in steamdb. That fits Alenias roughly 840k PC numbers.

But way to go with your made up numbers as always. And still sticking to your claim marathon is a 50/50 console split with PC. Lol

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Nothing is over. Nothing. You can't just shut Marathon off.

 

[Negotiator101]

It's almost like it wasn't Microsoft's fault that Bungie's output was shit.

Game is dead. No one asked for this game except OP

They made amazing games under Microsoft, only after they became independent did things go downhill, although Destiny and Destiny 2 both did well, it's actually after Sony took over it resulted in Crapathon.

 

[HRK69]

It's not that deep. This is a videogame discussion board where people theoretically like discussing videogame related topics.

And again, Bungie is having these conversations right now.

Yet here you are, insisting your post is a beacon of insight, a masterclass in gaming strategy

It's almost tragic how fully you're committed to the role of Forum Genius

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Yet here you are, insisting your post is a beacon of insight, a masterclass in gaming strategy

It's almost tragic how fully you're committed to the role of Forum Genius

No, I'm open to criticism.

I make declarative statements and post them publicly to initiate conversation. You need to lighten up brother.

 

[yurinka]

I think our positions are just slightly off. I think Tassi said PlayStation 5 sales were closer to 250k than your estimated 800k, but I'm rooting for you to be correct because the game is great and has loads of potential.

Yes, the difference is that I worked in the industry for two decades including several years in the marketing department of a AAA publisher (who bought our studio due to our GaaS expertise and success), and made the estimate checking and extrapolating many dozens of games across several years. Tassi instead reported the Alinea made out number.

But well, let's see if Sony announces something. I think the most likely place will be in the Business segment meeting that would take place late May/early June. I think in the early May full FY earning announcement they may only make some small reference to reply some question in the Q&A part.

Maybe saying something like "Marathon released with great reception with critics and players. Despite felling a bit short compared to our launch window estimates, particularly in console, but it's showing a very good user retention and playtime per user, which makes us look forward to its future."

In case it already achieved the break even by then, they may not mention it to avoid to give clues about its specific revenue. They may mention some game specific number (units sold, MAU, retention, ARPU) in the Business Meeting having had some extra time to collect some good looking metric, more representative of the long term, and also because it's the type of meeting where they use to show some game specific number.

 

[The_Mike]

They made amazing games under Microsoft, only after they became independent did things go downhill, although Destiny and Destiny 2 both did well, it's actually after Sony took over it resulted in Crapathon.

I thought people said their last Halo game was bad, or was it 343 ?

 

[Negotiator101]

I thought people said their last Halo game was bad, or was it 343 ?

That's 343 who dropped the ball with Halo, hopefully the remake is well made

 

[Spukc]

nerfing shotties?

fuck campers

 

[diffusionx]

I thought people said their last Halo game was bad, or was it 343 ?

Reach was their last Halo game