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[FieryBalrog]

Nor do you. At least I have some evidence to support my claim, it may not be conclusive evidence, but it's better than none.

Except I haven't made "a claim", old boy.

 

[Last Hearth]

Except I haven't made "a claim", old boy.

You just did.

 

[LowParry]

Well if it does come this year, we'll probably end up doing our own testing when it comes to end game. The first couple of months of any new MMO is patches galore. By then we should see BioWare's vision for their future with this game.

 

[Yasae]

Well if it does come this year, we'll probably end up doing our own testing when it comes to end game. The first couple of months of any new MMO is patches galore. By then we should see BioWare's vision for their future with this game.

I hope, though those content shortages were pretty big concerns with me from the start.

 

[FieryBalrog]

You just did.

And what is that?

All I've said is "you don't know". Because, well, you don't.

 

[Dresden]

Odd. Lich King came out two months after Warhammer. =P

The Old Republic will be fine no matter what comes out. Next WoW Expansion, Guild Wars 2, etc. Its not like TOR needs 6 million subscribers to be a success and continue on. 500k+ will do them just fine and I think they can get that easily.

Millions or bust. They're not looking for something sustainable, they're looking for a smash hit.

 

[FieryBalrog]

500K would be "fine" but you can bet your schlong- popular on GAF nowadays- that EA would be crying bitter tears into their pillow, at night, when no one's looking.

 

[Kintaro]

Millions or bust. They're not looking for something sustainable, they're looking for a smash hit.

They've already claimed 500k+ would be "substanially profitable."

The most surprising revelation was EA's subscriber expectations. "We previously described to folks that 500,000 subscribers saw the game as substantially profitable, but it's not the kind of thing that we would write home about," he said. "[But] anything north of 1 million subscribers is a very profitable business."

That's from John Riccitiello.

 

[HP_Wuvcraft]

Yeah, TOR needs to make millions. Which it will.

 

[markot]

Whats the difference between substantially profitable and very profitable?!

Also, I thought this game wasnt going to have monthly fees and use a different model >.>?

 

[FieryBalrog]

They've already claimed 500k+ would be "substanially profitable."

Well instead of chopping that quote in half, it would be "substantially profitable, but it's not the kind of thing we would write home about."

I also imagine the profitability of "500K Subscribers" very much depends on how long you have them. 3 months? 10 months? 3 years?

 

[antonz]

Well instead of chopping that quote in half, it would be "substantially profitable, but it's not the kind of thing we would write home about."

I also imagine the profitability of "500K Subscribers" very much depends on how long you have them. 3 months? 10 months? 3 years?

When they say 500K they mean the steady userbase not the fluctuation of launch window. There is no doubt they could easily launch with a few million subscribers. The catch is keeping them.

500K subscribers would net them 7.5 million a month roughly. Those 500,000 Would net them another 20-25 million in sales of the game. 1 year alone would generate 110 million or so revenue.

The MMO Market is a tough thing to really tell how things will go. WoWs numbers are so retardedly overinflated by China and the genre WoW fits into is a super popular one in general

 

[Kintaro]

Whats the difference between substantially profitable and very profitable?!

Also, I thought this game wasnt going to have monthly fees and use a different model >.>?

What the hell made you think that? lol

 

[dimb]

They've already claimed 500k+ would be "substanially profitable."



That's from John Riccitiello.

I didn't know we lived in a world where people actually believe the words that come out of John Riccitello's mouth.

 

[FieryBalrog]

When they say 500K they mean the steady userbase not the fluctuation of launch window. There is no doubt they could easily launch with a few million subscribers. The catch is keeping them.

500K subscribers would net them 7.5 million a month roughly. Those 500,000 Would net them another 20-25 million in sales of the game. 1 year alone would generate 110 million or so revenue.

The MMO Market is a tough thing to really tell how things will go. WoWs numbers are so retardedly overinflated by China and the genre WoW fits into is a super popular one in general

Right, although that is gross revenue, it'll be somewhat less once ongoing costs are taken into account. I have to imagine TOR cost well upwards of $100 million to make though. That's what WoW cost- without the huge amounts of voicework and it was actually a shorter dev cycle, amazingly enough given a Blizzard game. Even WAR cost between $75 million and $100 million to make. Plus the marketing budget for a game like this is huge, e.g. see EA spending $100 million on BF3 marketing alone.

This is purely speculative, but I would think they would need to maintain a 500K base for 3-4 years before the whole investment really pays off. I don't think they'll have trouble doing that, but I think they'd be pretty disappointed at anything less than a million Western subs.

 

[antonz]

Right, although that is gross revenue, it'll be somewhat less once ongoing costs are taken into account. I have to imagine TOR cost well upwards of $100 million to make though. That's what WoW cost- without the huge amounts of voicework and it was actually a shorter dev cycle, amazingly enough given a Blizzard game. Even WAR cost between $75 million and $100 million to make. Plus the marketing budget for a game like this is huge, e.g. see EA spending $100 million on BF3 marketing alone.

This is purely speculative, but I would think they would need to maintain a 500K base for 3-4 years before the whole investment really pays off.

Oh yeah they need multiple years of 500K+. It really all just depends how lucky they get. WoW is lucky it fills the generic fantasy genre well. Lots of casual folks love their elves and dwarves etc. Only like 1/4th of the game even has level 85 characters. The casuals just do their thing at whatever pace while blizzard sucks the money from their bank accounts.

 

[markot]

What the hell made you think that? lol

Oh, I thought I heard it awhile back that they were going to try and avoid the monthly sub fee and go for micro transactions, guess I was wrong.

 

[Jarmel]

Yea I decided I'm going to hold off on any further playing till launch. I'll check the new build but I'm out till launch whenever that is. I can already tell I'm starting to get sick of the game and it might be for the best if I back off for awhile.

 

[CzarTim]

I've always been fine with a 2012 launch. As long as it isn't rushed out.

 

[LowParry]

It would seem this new build is coming Monday for current testers. Give it a couple of weeks and mmmmmmaybe we'll see a weekend test update?

 

[Moaradin]

I thought servers were just coming down on Monday. The actual build wont be playable for a couple weeks or what?

 

[Jarmel]

Oh and saw this on the Dev Track:

Originally Posted by Scelerant
... Thus the neglect Bioware is demonstrating here, by having US weekend invites go out regardless of their invite problem...

The invite problem you’re referring to here was highlighted by the invites going out; it was not something we were aware of beforehand. I’m sure if you asked many of those caught up in the issue, it was frustrating for them and severely impacted their experience. Rest assured that had we known about the issue prior to sending the invites, there would have been a delay to them being sent and quite possibly we would have cancelled the Testing Weekend.

----

Looks like I keep my dick after all.

 

[maabus1999]

I thought servers were just coming down on Monday. The actual build wont be playable for a couple weeks or what?

You sir are correct. Maybe he ment next Monday which is an ok guess but a little earlier then they normally roll a build out.

 

[antonz]

Oh and saw this on the Dev Track:

Originally Posted by Scelerant
... Thus the neglect Bioware is demonstrating here, by having US weekend invites go out regardless of their invite problem...

The invite problem you’re referring to here was highlighted by the invites going out; it was not something we were aware of beforehand. I’m sure if you asked many of those caught up in the issue, it was frustrating for them and severely impacted their experience. Rest assured that had we known about the issue prior to sending the invites, there would have been a delay to them being sent and quite possibly we would have cancelled the Testing Weekend.

----

Looks like I keep my dick after all.

That has to do with the massive failure of the invite system last week. It was flaging people for access who werent supposed to get it while people who were supposed to werent getting flagged etc.

Its the whole reason why Europe invites didnt go out last week. Nothing to do with your notion that testing weekends are never gonna happen

 

[LowParry]

I thought servers were just coming down on Monday. The actual build wont be playable for a couple weeks or what?

Yeah. I worded that very strange. Servers going down Monday and a new build in the coming weeks (which to me says, the next couple of weeks). Huh. Carry on.

 

[maabus1999]

Oh and saw this on the Dev Track:

Originally Posted by Scelerant
... Thus the neglect Bioware is demonstrating here, by having US weekend invites go out regardless of their invite problem...

The invite problem you’re referring to here was highlighted by the invites going out; it was not something we were aware of beforehand. I’m sure if you asked many of those caught up in the issue, it was frustrating for them and severely impacted their experience. Rest assured that had we known about the issue prior to sending the invites, there would have been a delay to them being sent and quite possibly we would have cancelled the Testing Weekend.

----

Looks like I keep my dick after all.

That was something before the testing weekend ever started and had to do with accepting the RSVP's in the account section. It had nothing to do with the game client or the internal testing. It was a headache though for a lot of people getting in for the weekend though (which btw is on their own forum and I can not see the feedback on. However people I spoke to said minus the last 6 hour lag spike was very playable).

Again you are assuming things that do not have a correlation on the status of the game. How far have you even played off your friend's beta?

Want to know what the biggest problem is with internal testing? Random people who can't download the client for some reason.

 

[Jarmel]

That has to do with the massive failure of the invite system last week. It was flaging people for access who werent supposed to get it while people who were supposed to werent getting flagged etc.

Its the whole reason why Europe invites didnt go out last week. Nothing to do with your notion that testing weekends are never gonna happen

Nope he was talking about the US system and how the invites got bugged up for that and how they should have probably cancelled the past weekend. My point was that the beta weekends being cancelled or postponed till further notice had little to do with the new build.

That was something before the testing weekend ever started and had to do with accepting the RSVP's in the account section. It had nothing to do with the game client or the internal testing. It was a headache though for a lot of people getting in for the weekend though (which btw is on their own forum and I can not see the feedback on. However people I spoke to said minus the last 6 hour lag spike was very playable).

Again you are assuming things that do not have a correlation on the status of the game. How far have you even played off your friend's beta?

Want to know what the biggest problem is with internal testing? Random people who can't download the client for some reason.

Did any of you even read that? They were saying how bugged the invite system was for the US beta users and if they had known, they would have cancelled the beta testing for the past weekend. Meaning that they are atleast dealing with a shitload of technical problems.

Got halfway through Alderaan and around 32.

 

[LowParry]

Want to know what the biggest problem is with internal testing? Random people who can't download the client for some reason.

A shame they can't have these builds go through Origin. I suspect people are downloading directly from BioWare?

 

[maabus1999]

Also want everyone who thinks there is a disaster and the game is delayed to do misinterpretating Bioware's piss poor PR statements at time's:

We rolled out this previous weekend as a relatively small scale event; from now we will do bigger and bigger events, but that doesn't mean it happens every weekend. When we do resume, we'll be inviting many more people in.

It was probably a mistake to start the weekend of testing when a new build was coming (everyone knew it was as its been more then 6 weeks).

If you want to blame anything, blame Bioware's management and bad PR, not some doom and gloom speech on the game having serious problems which it doesn't.

 

[Jarmel]

Also want everyone who thinks there is a disaster and the game is delayed to do misinterpretating Bioware's piss poor PR statements at time's:

We rolled out this previous weekend as a relatively small scale event; from now we will do bigger and bigger events, but that doesn't mean it happens every weekend. When we do resume, we'll be inviting many more people in.

It was probably a mistake to start the weekend of testing when a new build was coming (everyone knew it was as its been more then 6 weeks).

If you want to blame anything, blame Bioware's management and bad PR, not some doom and gloom speech on the game having serious problems which it doesn't.

And notice how they don't give jack in regards to a time table. They could revamp in 2 months and the above statement could be true. The whole event was a disaster on somebody's part in Bioware.

 

[maabus1999]

Nope he was talking about the US system and how the invites got bugged up for that and how they should have probably cancelled the past weekend. My point was that the beta weekends being cancelled or postponed till further notice had little to do with the new build.


Did any of you even read that? They were saying how bugged the invite system was for the US beta users and if they had known, they would have cancelled the beta testing for the past weekend. Meaning that they are atleast dealing with a shitload of technical problems.

Got halfway through Alderaan and around 32.

Being they shut down their entire infrastructure for several weeks at a time when they roll out a build, how would they exactly make a testing weekend happen?

The only credit you have is the one this weekend COULD have happened as the infrastructure will be up until the end of the weekend. However, it is possible they are wary of that invite problem so decided might as well cancel this weekend since the next two weekends will also not be happening due to the infrastructure being down and make this botched PR move. This gives them more then a few days to check the problem a little more (btw he is right that no internal tester had this issue so they must have used a new invite system for the testing weekend people and if it is new...)

This is just a bad PR mistep. Nothing to do with the testing being cancelled.

 

[maabus1999]

And notice how they don't give jack in regards to a time table. They could revamp in 2 months and the above statement could be true. The whole event was a disaster on somebody's part in Bioware.

Bioware has NEVER done a time table. Never. We don't know crap half the time until the last moment internally.

That is there business model decision. I disagree with it as do many, but it is what it is. Not some grand conspiracy.

 

[Jarmel]

Being they shut down their entire infrastructure for several weeks at a time when they roll out a build, how would they exactly make a testing weekend happen?

The only credit you have is the one this weekend COULD have happened as the infrastructure will be up until the end of the weekend. However, it is possible they are wary of that invite problem so decided might as well cancel this weekend since the next two weekends will also not be happening due to the infrastructure being down and make this botched PR move. This gives them more then a few days to check the problem a little more (btw he is right that no internal tester had this issue so they must have used a new invite system for the testing weekend people and if it is new...)

This is just a bad PR mistep. Nothing to do with the testing being cancelled.

Jesus Christ, I'm repeating myself so much on this point so let me bold it. You don't cancel an event when you can delay it. The wording was very clear that they are putting this on ice for the time being and will get back to it down the road but have no clue when. They didn't even state they were pushing the event back but rather suspending the event.

 

[maabus1999]

Jesus Christ, I'm repeating myself so much on this point so let me bold it. You don't cancel an event when you can delay it. The wording was very clear that they are putting this on ice for the time being and will get back to it down the road but have no clue when. They didn't even state they were pushing the event back but rather suspending the event.

But they did delay it. They just cancelled the next few weekends, not the entire program. And I've already explained to you why they had to cancell the next several weekends, so whats the issue here?

You and I are reading their quotes completely differently somehow if you think the whole event is cancelled (because it is not). Hell even your own writing of "putting this on ice" means DELAY. I'm getting suspicious you are being either overly aggressive in not changing your stance or straight out trying to find a reason to be negative here.

Why else would they be posting a FAQ on "game testing weekends" today????

 

[Jarmel]

But they did delay it. They just cancelled the next few weekends, not the entire program. And I've already explained to you why they had to cancell the next several weekends, so whats the issue here?

You and I are reading their quotes completely differently somehow if you think the whole event is cancelled (because it is not).

Wording. They obviously are going to continue Testing Weekends sometime in the future but the September Testing 'event' is cancelled. If they still meant to do the September Testing 'event' then they would say that due to the new build, they're pushing things back a month roughly. They delayed it indefinitely which is pretty much canning something.

Why else would they be posting a FAQ on "game testing weekends" today????

Well should be interesting to see whether they actually give answers.

 

[Amneisac]

I really think Jarmel and a few others are getting too hung up on semantics here. I mean, If you have planned beta testing weekends in September (that was all that was originally announced) and you cancel them, that doesn't mean you can't resume in October or November, just that you've canceled what you originally announced for September. I really doubt they have a team of lawyers and linguists read their posts before they put them out there to make sure that no fanboys get the wrong idea.

Also, why would they ever implement a time restriction on themselves now? They have no reason to say "NEW VERSION WILL BE OUT IN 14 DAYS" because then people will just get mad when it's 12:01AM and there's no new version yet. They're way better off taking their time and making sure they don't release a buggy product to test. They know that delaying a game won't hurt sales as much as releasing a fucked up beta that causes testers / those following the beta to cancel preorders / swear the game off.

 

[maabus1999]

Wording. They obviously are going to continue Testing Weekends sometime in the future but the September Testing 'event' is cancelled. If they still meant to do the September Testing 'event' then they would say that due to the new build, they're pushing things back a month roughly. They delayed it indefinitely which is pretty much canning something.

But they did!?!

"Further to that, as Chris Collins explained in another thread, we are about to roll out a major new build for The Old Republic. That build won't be ready for this weekend. Just as we did not feel it was a good decision to ask potential EU testers to download our client only to have to download it again, the same applies for this weekend"

Holy cow dude.

 

[Jarmel]

But they did!?!

"Further to that, as Chris Collins explained in another thread, we are about to roll out a major new build for The Old Republic. That build won't be ready for this weekend. Just as we did not feel it was a good decision to ask potential EU testers to download our client only to have to download it again, the same applies for this weekend"

Holy cow dude.

............................. Wow way to focus on the wrong part of that sentence but go ahead.

I really think Jarmel and a few others are getting too hung up on semantics here. I mean, If you have planned beta testing weekends in September (that was all that was originally announced) and you cancel them, that doesn't mean you can't resume in October or November, just that you've canceled what you originally announced for September. I really doubt they have a team of lawyers and linguists read their posts before they put them out there to make sure that no fanboys get the wrong idea.

Also, why would they ever implement a time restriction on themselves now? They have no reason to say "NEW VERSION WILL BE OUT IN 14 DAYS" because then people will just get mad when it's 12:01AM and there's no new version yet. They're way better off taking their time and making sure they don't release a buggy product to test. They know that delaying a game won't hurt sales as much as releasing a fucked up beta that causes testers / those following the beta to cancel preorders / swear the game off.

You mean like what PR's jobs actually are?

 

[maabus1999]

............................. Wow way to focus on the wrong part of that sentence but go ahead.

Here then:

"Hello all,

There is no Beta Testing Weekend scheduled for this weekend. There may be further Beta Testing Weekends during September, but we're not going to guarantee it. The weekend that just finished was really our first dry run of Beta Testing Weekends as a whole, and we have plenty of data to crunch, and decisions to make before we start things up again.

Further to that, as Chris Collins explained in another thread, we are about to roll out a major new build for The Old Republic. That build won't be ready for this weekend. Just as we did not feel it was a good decision to ask potential EU testers to download our client only to have to download it again, the same applies for this weekend.

That does not mean, however, that as soon as our new build is available we'll be rolling out a Beta Testing Weekend immediately. As with any new build of the game, we need to get feedback from internal testing and our ongoing Game Testing program before rolling it out to a massive audience. "

I think I'm done with you. You are just someone who won't back down and will argue semantics while pounding sand.

To everyone else. Sorry for the waste of the thread space.

 

[Jarmel]

Here then:

"Hello all,

There is no Beta Testing Weekend scheduled for this weekend. There may be further Beta Testing Weekends during September, but we're not going to guarantee it. The weekend that just finished was really our first dry run of Beta Testing Weekends as a whole, and we have plenty of data to crunch, and decisions to make before we start things up again.

Further to that, as Chris Collins explained in another thread, we are about to roll out a major new build for The Old Republic. That build won't be ready for this weekend. Just as we did not feel it was a good decision to ask potential EU testers to download our client only to have to download it again, the same applies for this weekend.

That does not mean, however, that as soon as our new build is available we'll be rolling out a Beta Testing Weekend immediately. As with any new build of the game, we need to get feedback from internal testing and our ongoing Game Testing program before rolling it out to a massive audience. "

I think I'm done with you. You are just someone who won't back down and will argue semantics while pounding sand.

To everyone else. Sorry for the waste of the thread space.

Well I'll guess we'll find out won't we.

 

[Interfectum]

what a train wreck (both the thread and the beta weekends)

 

[maabus1999]

Not sure if has been mentioned but the CFO of EA mentioned yesterday that they will announce the release date end of September or Early October.

Being most MMO's launch 30-45 days from announcement, I would say November is looking very, very probable for launch. Plus WoW is saving their 4.3 patch for November time frame so looks like they believe this to be the case too.

 

[Mr. Luchador]

Hmm, think I'm done with the hype for this. Going to cancel pre-order, and go with my plan I mentioned a few days back of picking it up when its sub £20 and hammer the 30 day free game time.

Can't be bothered with the drama that's happening now, and the apparent bullshitting over beta invites and the whole EU thing. Melodramatic or not, my confidence in currently shot.

 

[Amneisac]

Well I'll guess we'll find out won't we.

I tend to be a pretty critical person, too. I think it's just in my nature. I find myself criticizing things just because it makes me feel smart and discerning. I think you should do yourself a favor (and maybe the rest of the people in this thread) and take a break and go appreciate something. It doesn't even have to be a video game. It can be nature, a good book, maybe even just a nice quiet evening at home watching TV.

You're taking years off your life in this thread getting all worked up over just a few words that some guy at a video game company posted. I'm all for taking video games seriously and trying to improve the industry through constructive criticism, that's why I come here, but I think you've crossed over into permanently unhappy, grounchypants mode and you need to recalibrate and come back in a few days.

 

[BattleMonkey]

Millions or bust. They're not looking for something sustainable, they're looking for a smash hit.

The game needs to be a hit at start to help recoup much of the investment in the game, but after that things should be fine. Last they said that the game preorders were a company record higher than BF3 at the time which is already at 1.25 mil preorders, so TOR is off to a good start. WAR and AOC were able to do 1 mil sales early on so TOR should be probably able to hit 2+ easily early on. At this point in the game I don't see any MMO doing the massive numbers WoW did, but no MMO needs to hit those kinds of numbers to make money either. If they can keep a good sub base for quite a few months after release and with lot of sales, much of the games development should be taken care of. Launch windows will determine long term success though, almost every game that has come and fizzled, you can point to how disastorous it's launches and first 2 months were. They need to make sure TOR is clean like RIFT was at launch or shits doomed

Recouping the initial costs is a major thing, because it's a huge chunk. Any overhead of running the game after down the line is flexible as generally thats when dev teams are shrunk down, if things have to be cut they will be, and other costs will be scaled depending on how well things go. Running a MMO is not a fixed cost. Lot of MMOs keep making good money even with anemic user bases because they keep costs down. Of course when things get bad like that, it often means lack of support quality and quantitiy. I don't see TOR crashing and burning fast though, but how long it will be around long term is anybodies guess.

 

[Gvaz]

, and on the forum for the weekend testers the posts have been overwhelming positive.

It's the complete opposite during beta, especially for MMOs. We've all (or at least some of us have) done this tango more than enough times to know how it goes.

Pretty much, the people who have positive things to say end up being the loudest and ignoring the complaints given by others (not just the "needs to be more like X") and after a few months the game dissolves.

I'm sure this game will be carried longer if only for the fact it's star wars though.

 

[Fine Ham Abounds]

This weekend I'm going to be reading this entire thread for entertainment, since I won't be playing Beta.

 

[BattleMonkey]

Pretty much, the people who have positive things to say end up being the loudest and ignoring the complaints given by others (not just the "needs to be more like X") and after a few months the game dissolves..

This is often not true. Complainers and the negativity often has crushed so many good things in MMOs as devs fall under the pressure of the whiners and end up screwing something up. During Betas things are dicey often because lot of beta testers dont spend time with the game and you get people who only get in for a short time and are like "this shit is great, don't worry it will get better stop being negative". That obviously happens which sadly wastes space. Once the game launches, everything shifts.

 

[maabus1999]

This is often not true. Complainers and the negativity often has crushed so many good things in MMOs as devs fall under the pressure of the whiners and end up screwing something up. During Betas things are dicey often because lot of beta testers dont spend time with the game and you get people who only get in for a short time and are like "this shit is great, don't worry it will get better stop being negative". That obviously happens which sadly wastes space. Once the game launches, everything shifts.

Agreed. Should hear the whining about how the game should bemore "sandbox" or "RP friendly", or that Bioware "promised" this 2 years ago type deal.

Has huge followings when 90% of it is wasted feedback. Latest entry of testers have made it difficult to really get good feedback threads going for some reason with a lot of out of this world ideas or complaints.

 

[Gvaz]

and you get people who only get in for a short time and are like "this shit is great, don't worry it will get better stop being negative".

Yeah that's what I'm talking about. My friend seems to like the beta (played a class to about 20, and two to over 10) and he just gives me crap about "they aren't going to cater to you" when my complaints I believe are valid, but then I'm in the same situation and I'm just kind of bleh.

Also what's wrong with wanting it to be more sandboxy?