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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!
- Thread starter koam
- Start date
tarius1210 said:
Yeah, Wellington is especially attractive if you're looking for lower risk. It pretty much just goes up about 8.5% per year regardless of the general market. It was the first fund in my IRA, before I realized that I should be taking 100% stocks at my age. I've kept it because it may be a good fund to have in a portfolio with a ~once/year re-balancing strategy.
If you know anyone that's afraid of the stock market or equates it to gambling, this is a fantastic fund to refute their ignorance. It's gone through the 1929 depression, and everything between then and now and it very quickly returns to it's 8.5% annualized interest average.
Here is a better performance link for Wellington, as google ignores dividends:
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/FundsSnapshot?FundId=0021&FundIntExt=INT#hist=tab:1
It's already recovered from the 2007-2008 recession.
I have one account in financial stocks, and another that is writing cash-secured puts. They started $1000 apart. At this rate, they'll be even in a couple of months. The financial stocks just keep bleeding money like crazy, but every put I've written has expired worthless or wound up a couple pennies in the money (easy to get rid of).
Tesla IPO on Monday. Anyone else going to take a gamble?
http://jalopnik.com/5569882/inside-the-secret-178-million-tesla-ipo-presentation
http://jalopnik.com/5569882/inside-the-secret-178-million-tesla-ipo-presentation
tarius1210 said:
No, the Roadster is their performance vehicle. They have shown "Model S" quite a bit at this point, which is a pretty standard 4-door sedan (other than being electric of course). I think they said it will be a couple years into Model S sales before they're profitable. I won't be playing this stock, personally.
I've done nothing but lose the past few weeks. My C calls for January basically cut themselves in half and I'm looking at a small loss now. Financials have been pretty crap even in market rallies lately. I had MSFT October calls that I sold for a loss. I'm sitting on VXX calls which are doing ok at the moment. My best stock is still NFLX, by a country mile.
Came VERY close to buying RIMM puts yesterday. I'm still not convinced earnings plays are smart in general, but hard to not kick myself with that stock down 10% today.
I've put off buying stocks for the past while to observe the market but I can definitively say I'm going to purchase a fair bit of Hellenic Telecom (OTE) next week and possibly Oceanic Gold (OGC) to inrease my gold exposure. I'm still undecided on which solar stock to ride but that will likely be my upcoming RRSP and TFSA contribution.
Bought some BAC and C calls yesterday and decided to hold them over the weekend. I am already up 15% so hopefully I can squeeze out a bit more on monday as well. I am waiting for RIG to hold at around 49 and plan to buy some calls. NFLX calls are looking attractive as well at the current level.
Ether_Snake
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Timbeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeer
SlipperySlope
Banned
I'm probably going to add to my BP position next week. Can't afford to currently. Don't have much cash on hand currently.
Ether_Snake
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I bought some more ERTS last friday. Haven't sold anything in a long time.
UltimaKilo
Gold Member
Ether_Snake
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Anyone else likes X at this price?
So has March 2009 to May 2010 been the biggest suckers rally in history?
I'm absolutely terrified, someone hold me and tell me that everything is going to be ok.
I'm thinking about whether or not to get out of everything tomorrow and just hold cash.
Are we looking at a healthy economy that is just having the usual mid recovery pause?
Are we Japan 2.0 and facing 20-30 years of slow and steady deflation?
Are we Great Depression 2.0 and looking at a major leg down where the current losses from 2008 to now are just the first bit?
My portfolio is now only down slightly to date, but I'm long in all my positions.
Long:
MCD, KO, WMT, JNJ, PG, WTR, ED, TAC, RY, CM, THI, BCE, RCI.B, TRP, CNR, CPG, GWO, MFC, Telus, CU, ENB, SJR. B, FTS, EMA, C.
I'm thinking I'll feel like a loser if I cash out now and everything is fine, but I'll really hate myself if I ride this down another 50%. I'm getting a 4% yield on cost on my portfolio and the dividends are about 12K a year. I'm a little skittish because I am leveraged for 50% of the value of this portfolio, I have a decent spread between the interest rate (15 year fixed loan 2.25%, no margin calls) and the current yield on cost.
I built this portfolio on the basis of collecting nice dividends and growing those dividends over time, but in a deflationary environment, I could easily see these dividends shrink along with the capital value. I mean, JNJ has raised their dividend every year for the past 40+ years, but are we looking at a substantially impaired and fractured global economy now compared to what has happened since the 1970s?
The sentiment on the net on all the investing blogs I read is crazy bad...and the bullish sentiment seems to rely on things being like they were in the 1990s and early 2000s.
I'm in Canada so I don't know if things are really as bad in the US as some of the things I read on the net are, but certainly where I live I don't know anyone who has lost their job or is in any danger of losing their job, everyone is still buying cars and houses (although four houses on my street have been for sale for 6 weeks with no buyers).
Thoughts?
I'm absolutely terrified, someone hold me and tell me that everything is going to be ok.
I'm thinking about whether or not to get out of everything tomorrow and just hold cash.
Are we looking at a healthy economy that is just having the usual mid recovery pause?
Are we Japan 2.0 and facing 20-30 years of slow and steady deflation?
Are we Great Depression 2.0 and looking at a major leg down where the current losses from 2008 to now are just the first bit?
My portfolio is now only down slightly to date, but I'm long in all my positions.
Long:
MCD, KO, WMT, JNJ, PG, WTR, ED, TAC, RY, CM, THI, BCE, RCI.B, TRP, CNR, CPG, GWO, MFC, Telus, CU, ENB, SJR. B, FTS, EMA, C.
I'm thinking I'll feel like a loser if I cash out now and everything is fine, but I'll really hate myself if I ride this down another 50%. I'm getting a 4% yield on cost on my portfolio and the dividends are about 12K a year. I'm a little skittish because I am leveraged for 50% of the value of this portfolio, I have a decent spread between the interest rate (15 year fixed loan 2.25%, no margin calls) and the current yield on cost.
I built this portfolio on the basis of collecting nice dividends and growing those dividends over time, but in a deflationary environment, I could easily see these dividends shrink along with the capital value. I mean, JNJ has raised their dividend every year for the past 40+ years, but are we looking at a substantially impaired and fractured global economy now compared to what has happened since the 1970s?
The sentiment on the net on all the investing blogs I read is crazy bad...and the bullish sentiment seems to rely on things being like they were in the 1990s and early 2000s.
I'm in Canada so I don't know if things are really as bad in the US as some of the things I read on the net are, but certainly where I live I don't know anyone who has lost their job or is in any danger of losing their job, everyone is still buying cars and houses (although four houses on my street have been for sale for 6 weeks with no buyers).
Thoughts?
vpance
Member
Fatghost said:
The sentiment is incredibly bad everywhere you read, so it should go up I think. By the end of the year we'll have QE2 and a big hurrah rally in time for elections. But the swings will be wild over the next 2 years for sure. And sometime in that period I feel we will crash again. I'm hedged or hedging most my long positions for the summer. Deflationary in the short term, but the general consensus is massive hyperinflation in the future.
If you're sitting on big gains since last year and are afraid of downturns you could always buy some puts for insurance.
APC would be a much better gamble than BP.zou said:Decided to get into stocks the other weeks, jumped in with BP, T, VZ, FTR, CTL.
Adding the following once the market opens:
E, COP, VOD, MSFT, MO, QCOM, TOT, XOM, ESV and LLY
Mostly interested in dividend yield only or potentially lucrative gambles as with BP
Ether_Snake
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I don't know why there would be massive inflation in the future. If things are too pricey, people can't buy them in this economy, so prices would come down. For inflation to hit strongly there would have to be a relatively upward trend in jobs creation and wages, etc. Not the case at all.
Anyway like I said before until jobs are created, real jobs that people can keep for a long time, the economy is doomed to stay still or go downward. We saw that China is starting to let the yuan rise, it's a start, but wages have to go up a lot in China for things to balance out enough for jobs to be created where they have been vacuumed.
Anyway I'm around 15 to 20% down on my stock portfolio My 401k (REER) is really fine tho, always has been.
Anyway like I said before until jobs are created, real jobs that people can keep for a long time, the economy is doomed to stay still or go downward. We saw that China is starting to let the yuan rise, it's a start, but wages have to go up a lot in China for things to balance out enough for jobs to be created where they have been vacuumed.
Anyway I'm around 15 to 20% down on my stock portfolio
My 401k (REER) is really fine tho, always has been.I'm not seeing hyperinflation ever at this point. Short of the fed mailing cheques to individuals, the increase in money supply isn't reaching end users.
Households are deleveraging, it's like Japan in the 1990s but reversed (poor household balance sheets/good corporate balance sheets for North America compared to poor corporate/good household balance sheets in Japan in the 1990s).
I don't really think a Great Depression scenario is likely but I'd say Japan's scenario is more likely than other scenarios at this point.
Anyway I'm scared and rightly or wrongly, I can admit I don't have the balls to be long in this market in any substantial way.
I'm pulling out while I'm not too badly burned and will start buying my conviction stocks on a smaller, dollar cost average basis for the super long term (25+ years).
Households are deleveraging, it's like Japan in the 1990s but reversed (poor household balance sheets/good corporate balance sheets for North America compared to poor corporate/good household balance sheets in Japan in the 1990s).
I don't really think a Great Depression scenario is likely but I'd say Japan's scenario is more likely than other scenarios at this point.
Anyway I'm scared and rightly or wrongly, I can admit I don't have the balls to be long in this market in any substantial way.
I'm pulling out while I'm not too badly burned and will start buying my conviction stocks on a smaller, dollar cost average basis for the super long term (25+ years).
Ether_Snake
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BHI up 7% as it continues forward to its merger. X up over 5%. Still wondering if I should buy X or not. Right now I'm just standing by. Most of what I own I'm not planning to sell for another year at least if not more.
Damn dude, you need to stop watching CNBC. Stop looking at day-to-day price movements. If your investing for the long term you shouldn't even be worried. As you mentioned, dollar-cost averaging would be your safest bet right now. You should've went with that instead of bailing.Fatghost said:
You have to understand that the talking heads want to be the next Nassim Taleb.
Ether_Snake
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TTWO was up almost 10% today. Nice
On my end, I might buy some Ubisoft shares. This stock has fallen too low.
On my end, I might buy some Ubisoft shares. This stock has fallen too low.
Ether_Snake
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Ubisoft up 6% in AH after Q1 results. I didn't have time to buy any. Looks like it was at the bottom when I said it was too low
zou said:BP, MSFT, PFE and RIMM looking really good, up 16%, 4%, 5% and 9% respectively, after a week
For some reason no one likes VZ though.
Verizon is a dog of a stock, they do not have the cash flows to secure that dividend long term. The company only has a 51% controlling stake in VZW. In order to maintain the VZ dividend they would have to have VZW issue a dividend, but that gives Vodafone 49% of the cash.
It's been great lately - I made a cool 40% profit on NVDA calls over the last couple days. That said we just had our sixth straight day of gains so I'm pulling out of calls for the short term and sitting back with about half cash and half straight long holdings. Earnings season always makes me nervous
kathode said:It's been great lately - I made a cool 40% profit on NVDA calls over the last couple days. That said we just had our sixth straight day of gains so I'm pulling out of calls for the short term and sitting back with about half cash and half straight long holdings. Earnings season always makes me nervous
Intel crushed earnings and revenue so the market looks to go up big tomorrow.
Ether_Snake
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Ubisoft was up 15% today.
Most game stocks were up big. THQ up 9%.
Most game stocks were up big. THQ up 9%.
rage1973 said:
Yep futures are up nicely. I'm just saying I'm going to scale back my gambles and start to think about hedges. They could just as easily have missed and we could be looking at a down day. I once took a big gamble on Google earnings and got burned to the tune of a 100% loss
SentientStone
Member
Anyone own any VRNM? The stock just went up 80% this morning following news of BP buying their biofuel business.
I am wondering if you guys think it has legs to go up even further after today.
I am wondering if you guys think it has legs to go up even further after today.