DarkestHour
Banned
what
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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!
- Thread starter koam
- Start date
SpartanN92
Banned
I'm just pissed that it hasn't rebounded yet don't mind me.
BigBooper
Member
I'm no expert broker or anything, but there's no reason to hold losses until they become green if there's a better investment opportunity. Don't be offended or get emotional about an investment. You can take in short term vs long term capital gains into your calculations, but don't hold a stock out of loyalty unless you aren't viewing it as an investment.
I view my brokerage account like I view a business. Gaining money and putting more into my business gives me more tools to work with.
Honey Bunny
Member
Wow, today turned into a bad day.
ManofOne
Plus Member
When I first started trading around 17 I had $10,000 dollars in my first year I lost about $2000 and then I lost everything midway through the second year.
The hardest lesson I learnt was opportunities come and go. I made the mistake of not cutting my losses when I should.
Developed a rule for myself. If a stock that I have a new position on falls more than 20.0% of my original investment. I cut losses.
Edit - that turned me off from investment actually and I only started back since I graduated from university and got a job etc about 7 years ago.
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BigBooper
Member
That's a sensible strategy. I haven't set specific limits like that for myself, but I need to. I'm staying pretty on top of it all the time though, and haven't held anything for more than a year so far.
GHG
Member
Agree with this.
I'll also say that if you don't believe enough in the stock to load up on it during down days/periods then you should probably consider cutting it.
If you don't have any belief in the stock/company it makes it so much worse and can have a negative impact on your mentality and approach towards other trades. Sometimes it's like having a clear out and having to let go of possessions you cared about once upon a time.
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CrankyJay™
Member
Gotta scale out when that happens. Sell X amount of shares every Y amount of dollars or cents, or put in a trailing stop.I fucked up...kinda. I still profited, but could've been up $11k yesterday.
Went into my Fidelity account where I keep most of my savings and bought 1000 shares of RKT at $29. I had a chance to sell at $40, but got greedy and instead sold at $31
I still made $2,000, but could've been up significantly more.
I still have 100 shares (bought at $22) in my Robin Hood acct. Will be keeping that long term. Company seems legit and their earnings were very impressive. I think long term it's going to be a keeper.
HoodWinked
Member
NCLH is the only thing that keeps saving me
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
Whimper. Had a few bad red stocks today. Ended the day only +0.5% despite MIK being bought out for a 22% premium.
ManofOne
Plus Member
MW is Short XL Fleet Corp. (XL US)
Muddy Waters is short XL Fleet Corp. (NYSE: XL) because it strikes us as middle of the fairway SPAC garbage. We conclude that the real green technology at XL is duping investors into throwing money at this company through a collection of exaggerations, half-truths, and mistruths. XL’s previous equity raise (Series D) appears to have been at a valuation of approximately $73 million, which is a far cry from its SPAC valuation.
Former salespeople stated that they were pressured to inflate their sales pipelines materially in order to mislead XL’s board and investors. These former salespeople and other employees also told us that XL misleads its customers about performance and savings; and, that due to these exaggerations, customer reorder rates are in reality quite low. (One former employee ballparked the reorder rate at only 10%.) We also understand that roughly half of the customers XL touts in its investor presentation are inactive.
We give very little credence to the narrative that XL will be a serious player in full vehicle electrification. It appears to have little valuable proprietary technology. In fact, some former employees laughed out loud when we asked them whether XL can compete in EVs.
Although XL is capable of announcing a “strategic partnership” that “includes the opportunity to explore” installing charging stations at the arena where its SPAC promoter’s team plays, we doubt that its EV technology will allow it to do much more than pump out highly promotional press releases. We see little reality to the Blue Sky story with which this stock has been promoted.
Muddy Waters is short XL Fleet Corp. (NYSE: XL) because it strikes us as middle of the fairway SPAC garbage. We conclude that the real green technology at XL is duping investors into throwing money at this company through a collection of exaggerations, half-truths, and mistruths. XL’s previous equity raise (Series D) appears to have been at a valuation of approximately $73 million, which is a far cry from its SPAC valuation.
Former salespeople stated that they were pressured to inflate their sales pipelines materially in order to mislead XL’s board and investors. These former salespeople and other employees also told us that XL misleads its customers about performance and savings; and, that due to these exaggerations, customer reorder rates are in reality quite low. (One former employee ballparked the reorder rate at only 10%.) We also understand that roughly half of the customers XL touts in its investor presentation are inactive.
We give very little credence to the narrative that XL will be a serious player in full vehicle electrification. It appears to have little valuable proprietary technology. In fact, some former employees laughed out loud when we asked them whether XL can compete in EVs.
Although XL is capable of announcing a “strategic partnership” that “includes the opportunity to explore” installing charging stations at the arena where its SPAC promoter’s team plays, we doubt that its EV technology will allow it to do much more than pump out highly promotional press releases. We see little reality to the Blue Sky story with which this stock has been promoted.
GHG
Member
WSB on the case in 3... 2...
ManofOne
Plus Member
A sell-off in US government bonds intensified on Wednesday, sending technology stocks sharply lower for a second straight day.
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond, which acts as a benchmark for global borrowing costs, climbed to nearly 1.5 per cent at one point. It later settled around 1.47 per cent, up nearly 0.08 percentage points on the day.
Treasury trading has been particularly volatile for a week now — 10-year yields briefly eclipsed 1.6 per cent last Thursday — but the rise in yields has been picking up pace since the start of the year and the moves have begun weighing heavily on US stocks.
This has been especially true for high-growth technology companies whose valuations have been underpinned by low rates. The tech-focused Nasdaq Composite index was down 2.7 per cent on Wednesday, on top of a 1.7 per cent drop the day before.
The broader S&P 500 fell by 1.3 per cent.
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond, which acts as a benchmark for global borrowing costs, climbed to nearly 1.5 per cent at one point. It later settled around 1.47 per cent, up nearly 0.08 percentage points on the day.
Treasury trading has been particularly volatile for a week now — 10-year yields briefly eclipsed 1.6 per cent last Thursday — but the rise in yields has been picking up pace since the start of the year and the moves have begun weighing heavily on US stocks.
This has been especially true for high-growth technology companies whose valuations have been underpinned by low rates. The tech-focused Nasdaq Composite index was down 2.7 per cent on Wednesday, on top of a 1.7 per cent drop the day before.
The broader S&P 500 fell by 1.3 per cent.
SpartanN92
Banned
SpartanN92
Banned
So is anybody actually gonna pick up $BUZZ tomorrow? 
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Ozzy Onya A2Z
Member
Opportunity cost, something many business owners don't understand. Good tip though mate.
Taxexemption
Member
If you didn't have a good reason to buy the first time you probably won't get it right the second time, might as well just hold and hope that it will become profitable at some point.
I occasionally make really speculative investments with small amount of money. In these cases I don't really care, I just throw some money out there and see what happens based on some notion or thesis of mine. For the bulk of my investment money, I'm going for ETF's that pay a dividend. That way I am diversified, and I can collect dividends while I wait for a place where it makes sense to sell, or just hold indefinitely for future dividends. I think in many cases it's silly that people invest in stocks that don't pay dividends. It's like, what are you even doing bro?
But asking people to get into an S&P 500 ETF, a sector or industry ETF, is like pulling teeth. "So what you are saying is, if I invest 10,000 in this ETF, I can get 5% which comes out to 500 dollars a year, or about 41.67 a month indefinitely (give or take depending on how well the etf actually performs in the future)? You are so boring. I'm bored now, I need a few beers to recover from this conversation. That boredom you have must be contagious, don't talk to me anymore. Is this what accountants do? You just bore people until they go away?"
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longdi
Banned
who are buying them treasuries?
my nvda got crushed, no more money to buy 3080. was hoping for earning plays. hodling
godhandiscen
There are millions of whiny 5-year olds on Earth, and I AM THEIR KING.
What is the risk to continue being in tech? Why do you feel they continue to bleed?
I am down 150k from my ATH back in February, and I am not laughing anymore.
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ManofOne
Plus Member
who are buying them treasuries?
my nvda got crushed, no more money to buy 3080. was hoping for earning plays. hodling
Nobody is buying treasuries per say. They're selling it off. So when they sell treasuries, yields rises. So the 10 year yield is rising which is resetting valuations.
So the basic valuation equation is
Growth = growth rate of the company and then when you project forward into perpetuity you use growth rate of the economy. The U.S economy is projected to grow around 6.0% this year alongside that growth is higher inflation.
Cashflow = company expected cashflow projected forward
r = the discount rate. The discount rate being WACC (Weighted average cost of capital) simply put if 10 year treasuries increase so does r.
So initially growth expectations were outpacing inflation and discount rates, so stocks rose. However, inflation expectations are rising which means reduce margins also the 10 year yields are rising b/c inflation eats away at bond returns. It makes no sense holding a 1.5% bond if inflation expectation exceed that. So bonds are being sold off.
So you have compressed expected gross, operating and net margins from inflation, higher cost of capital, increase borrowing rates etc......so companies value fall.
Its gonna taper eventually and then we could see a rise but as long as yields keep rising, the fundamentals are catching up to tech. They are far to frothy so the valuations should reset plus stocks with longer equity duration i.e tech stocks will fall.
Now is a great time to go bargin hunting. Eventually it will taper.
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godhandiscen
There are millions of whiny 5-year olds on Earth, and I AM THEIR KING.
I think I will just keep my tech stocks. I don’t need the money soon after all, and cashing out will force me to pay taxes.Nobody is buying treasuries per say. They're selling it off. So when they sell treasuries, yields rises. So the 10 year yield is rising which is resetting valuations.
So the basic valuation equation is
Growth = growth rate of the company and then when you project forward into perpetuity you use growth rate of the economy. The U.S economy is projected to grow around 6.0% this year alongside that growth is higher inflation.
Cashflow = company expected cashflow projected forward
r = the discount rate. The discount rate being WACC (Weighted average cost of capital) simply put if 10 year treasuries increase so does r.
So initially growth expectations were outpacing inflation and discount rates, so stocks rose. However, inflation expectations are rising which means reduce margins also the 10 year yields are rising b/c inflation eats away at bond returns. It makes no sense holding a 1.5% bond if inflation expectation exceed that. So bonds are being sold off.
So you have compressed expected gross, operating and net margins from inflation, higher cost of capital, increase borrowing rates etc......so companies value fall.
Its gonna taper eventually and then we could see a rise but as long as yields keep rising, the fundamentals are catching up to tech. They are far to frothy so the valuations should reset plus stocks with longer equity duration i.e tech stocks will fall.
Now is a great time to go bargin hunting. Eventually it will taper.
Also, I finally ventured outside of tech last week. I bought DNOW after studying Michael Burry’s 13F and I feel bullish. I just don’t know the fundamentals of anything but tech. Moreover, the fundamentals of tech make sense to me when I put into context the products and services being worked on in the companies that I invest in.
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ManofOne
Plus Member
You don't need to cash out just keep the money floating or you can hedge by buying a reverse etf in tech which would reduce your downside losses. Tech leading losses amongst the indices so if you have a high correlation with the NASDAQ, your portfolio will suffer.
Financials and Energy are bullish right now so thats why the DOW is holding its own.
godhandiscen
There are millions of whiny 5-year olds on Earth, and I AM THEIR KING.
Got it, i will continue studying energy stocks. Thank you.You don't need to cash out just keep the money floating or you can hedge by buying a reverse etf in tech which would reduce your downside losses. Tech leading losses amongst the indices so if you have a high correlation with the NASDAQ, your portfolio will suffer.
Financials and Energy are bullish right now so thats why the DOW is holding its own.
ManofOne
Plus Member
So you can hedge this way.
If you have a bunch of long positions that are highly correlated to the NASDAQ. Buy a short position ETF that would reduce your downside losses in the near term. Buy it at a small fraction of your overall portfolio though since these leverage etfs
1) Carry high expense ratios
2) Carry liquidity risk
3) Carry massive downside risk (not meant to be held for the long term).
longdi
Banned
So you can hedge this way.
If you have a bunch of long positions that are highly correlated to the NASDAQ. Buy a short position ETF that would reduce your downside losses in the near term. Buy it at a small fraction of your overall portfolio though since these leverage etfs
1) Carry high expense ratios
2) Carry liquidity risk
3) Carry massive downside risk (not meant to be held for the long term).
but we need to pass some kyc to buy leveraged etf.
is it a good idea to buy them now that they have gone up already. iirc 3x leveraged is for a single day, and in maths terms, you may lose more in longer run than the qqq it tries to leverage.
ManofOne
Plus Member
but we need to pass some kyc to buy leveraged etf.
is it a good idea to buy them now that they have gone up already. iirc 3x leveraged is for a single day, and in maths terms, you may lose more in longer run than the qqq it tries to leverage.
This is true which is why I said short term and I used the leverage etf as an example plus also said fraction of your long portfolio. Just try to find an asset that suits your risk profile. They could keep going up as long as the NASDAQ keeps falling. Or you can just hedge by taking a non leverage position that correlates negative to the NASDAQ or near 0.
Edit : So say 90% of your stocks are between 0.8 to 0.9 correlated to the NASDAQ over the last 3 months.
Then take out a short position of 10.0% of your current positions. So that your downside losses are reduced and sell once you feel comfortable.
You can use the cash you earned to average down your already long positions as well.
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GHG
Member
longdi
You're not supposed to hold the SQQQ, it's not designed that way.
You buy it as a hedge during periods (or days) when you think the market is going to be down and that enables you to still make some money while the rest of your portfolio is down. The money you make with the SQQQ won't cover the losses you're holding in other positions during the duration you have them (you shouldn't be buying enough that would enable you to do so, it's not worth the risk) but what it enables you to do is make some extra cash that can then be plugged back in to your long term positions at discount rates. Speaking analogously, see it like you would a side hustle.
For what it's worth, on the occasions I get the SQQQ I don't even hold it overnight. Day by day assessment for me and I don't buy until I have a feel for the trend of a market on a particular day.
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BigBooper
Member
There's any number of unforseen events that could change your initial thesis, and any number that could suddenly make alternate investments much more attractive.
Can't agree with your post here. It doesn't allow for learning from your mistakes.
Investing in an ETF is probably going to offer good returns for most people who invest in them than they'd get themselves though. Good advice for most.
BigBooper
Member
Nvda makes me feel sad. It was the only stock I tried to talk my brother and a buddy into buying back in 2016, because I didn't have money available.who are buying them treasuries?
my nvda got crushed, no more money to buy 3080. was hoping for earning plays. hodling
Taxexemption
Member
Most people are not investing based on something that actually makes sense, any theory or formula, or checklist, or anything of that nature. If they invest in something not well thought out, pull their money out, rinse and repeat, they will be worse off than if they just held whatever they initially invest in. If most people had any business investing, they would be looking at dividends. The average investor flicks their toenails at the screen while placing a trade, probably half drunk off cheap vodka, and high on marijuana.
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FunkMiller
Member
i feel giddy looking at my icln crash and burn....what a crappy etf, clean energy future my ass
I'm in INRG. Taking a hit on that as well, but I'm looking at that one as a multi year investment. Won't pull out for a long time. Clean energy will come good... but not for a while!
longdi
Banned
idk mate, its biggest holding is frickin meme stock PLUG....the tanking is worse than any tech stocks i held before
CrankyJay™
Member
Oof.
ManofOne
Plus Member
Clean Energy, Total form JV to develop carbon negative fuel, infrastructure
- Clean Energy Fuels (NASDAQ:CLNE) +5.8% pre-market after unveiling a 50-50 joint venture with Total (NYSE:TOT), its largest shareholder, to develop carbon-negative renewable natural gas production facilities in the U.S. and provide credit support for building downstream RNG infrastructure such as refineries and fuel stations.
- The JV will have an initial firm commitment of $100M, which could be increased to $400M as development opportunities progress.
- The companies already have partnered to expand the use of RNG in the heavy-duty truck market with the Zero Now program, which allows fleets to purchase RNG trucks for the same price as diesel trucks.
- "No other company besides CLNE has the existing fueling infrastructure across the entire U.S. to support wider and growing adoption" of renewable natural gas, Credit Suisse wrote a month ago in initiating coverage of the shares with an Outperform rating.
FunkMiller
Member
idk mate, its biggest holding is frickin meme stock PLUG....the tanking is worse than any tech stocks i held before
Yeah, that’s not been great has it?
but I think long term over months and years, the green EFTs will bounce back. I’m just going to hold.
GHG
Member
Just had a look at it... Jesus, I was holding that in the 40's last month. Thank god I sold out when I did.
