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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

Drake

Drake

Member
The Japanese market crashed last night. Gold is way down too which is surprising. I thought that would be way up with the markets crashing. I may buy some more gold today.
 
95mellow

95mellow

Member
Worrying. US stock market opening will be big in a few hours, but holy shit it's looking bad.

I'm assuming a big drop in the next few days before the Fed rushes in some emergency interest rate cuts.
 
O

Outlier

Member
A site to behold. I have only 1 stock and I've no doubt it's in red, but I'm only worried what happens to it between the next 5 months.
 
HeisenbergFX4

HeisenbergFX4

Gold Member
Friends/Family always ask me why I don't invest in the market

Buckle Up Sean Bean GIF by Sony Pictures
 
StreetsofBeige

StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
Lucky I dumped my Nvidia shares last week I think on Thursday.

But after the carnage I’m back into buying more stocks when it stabilizes.
 
D

dave_d

Member
Mr Reasonable said:
I don't know how you guys have the nerve to buy individual stocks, I've got some money in funds with long term aims, but the rollercoaster of being up and down on individual businesses must be so stressful.
Click to expand...
Well there is the old saying. The best investors are either in a coma, stuck on boat in the middle of the ocean with no radio, dead, or have lost their password.
 
Tiago Rodrigues

Tiago Rodrigues

Member
HeisenbergFX4 said:
Most of my investments are in gold (which is tumbling atm as well) and real estate

The market just scares me too much
Click to expand...
Man i bought 6000€ worth in stocks last month. Microsoft, Apple, Ndivia and Take Two (i know, random). The next day, Trump is shot, politics get even weirder, a week later Biden gives up, a few days later Mark Zuckerberg mentions most companies are spending too much on AI which makes the market weird, then after that we got 2 weeks of uncertainty and now here we are.

Sorry world. My bad.

(now seriously...no one told me to be stupid and buy stocks when everyone is at an all-time-high expecting them to go even higher. it IS "my bad" for sure)
 
Dr_Salt

Dr_Salt

Banned
Tiago Rodrigues said:
Man i bought 6000€ worth in stocks last month. Microsoft, Apple, Ndivia and Take Two (i know, random). The next day, Trump is shot, politics get even weirder, a week later Biden gives up, a few days later Mark Zuckerberg mentions most companies are spending too much on AI which makes the market weird, then after that we got 2 weeks of uncertainty and now here we are.

Sorry world. My bad.

(now seriously...no one told me to be stupid and buy stocks when everyone is at an all-time-high expecting them to go even higher. it IS "my bad" for sure)
Click to expand...
Chillax bro, you bought good companies so they will eventually go up again. What you need to do now is double down and buy more.
 
Tams

Tams

Member
Mr Reasonable said:
I don't know how you guys have the nerve to buy individual stocks, I've got some money in funds with long term aims, but the rollercoaster of being up and down on individual businesses must be so stressful.
Click to expand...

Easy. Buy shares in companies that are well established and be prepared to keep them for a long time. Sometimes you get a nice little dividend too.

Now penny stocks... be prepared to lose your money there.
 
Tams

Tams

Member
TVexperto said:
after 4 years of stock investing i almost had enough to pay of my student loans ... now im down 20k :(
Click to expand...

You need to buy and sell opportunisticly. You don't need to buy or sell them all at once.

And don't bother obsessing with being the most efficient/maximising your profits. So long as you sell for more than you bought them, then you're better off.
 
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Tiago Rodrigues

Tiago Rodrigues

Member
Dr_Salt said:
Chillax bro, you bought good companies so they will eventually go up again. What you need to do now is double down and buy more.
Click to expand...
We'll see how things go this week. But instead of doubling down i was thinking about looking into ETFs honestly. Sounds somewhat safer...specially for a newbie.

TVexperto said:
after 4 years of stock investing i almost had enough to pay of my student loans ... now im down 20k :(
Click to expand...
Down 20k? How much did you have invested overall? (if it's okay to ask) Sorry, still learning here.
 
Gp1

Gp1

Member
Tiago Rodrigues said:
Man i bought 6000€ worth in stocks last month. Microsoft, Apple, Ndivia and Take Two (i know, random). The next day, Trump is shot, politics get even weirder, a week later Biden gives up, a few days later Mark Zuckerberg mentions most companies are spending too much on AI which makes the market weird, then after that we got 2 weeks of uncertainty and now here we are.

Sorry world. My bad.

(now seriously...no one told me to be stupid and buy stocks when everyone is at an all-time-high expecting them to go even higher. it IS "my bad" for sure)
Click to expand...

Don't worry, i've entered in fixed rates bonds in my country just before Trump's ear day + a bunch of local bad news. Interest rates went haywire for a good 2 months (which the red light in my broker popped some bad anxiety/OCD) and I'm recovering just now.

If the fundamentals are solid, your assets should normally turn around, specially of you're doing long term investment. Now, if you don't have the stomach to handle the rollercoaster, one suggestion is to reduce the % you make in variable income or, if you're investing long term and not day trading, simply focus on something else and check your portfolio only when you're rebalancing.

Ps. You can replicate an ETF by seeing where this ETF invest.
 
D

dave_d

Member
Tiago Rodrigues said:
We'll see how things go this week. But instead of doubling down i was thinking about looking into ETFs honestly. Sounds somewhat safer...specially for a newbie.
Click to expand...
To be blunt everything I've ever read on it ETF/Index based investments pretty much outperform everything long term. You might want to consider a three fund portfolio based on ETFs.

Bogleheads three fund portfolio
Another one

The only real question would be percentages which you could figure out with this

Vanguard calculator.

So for example in my case that calculator was saying I should do about 40%VTI, 30% VXUS and 30%BND (70/30) but I figured I'd probably do 60%VTI, 20%VXUS, and 20%BND.
 
Tiago Rodrigues

Tiago Rodrigues

Member
Gp1 said:
Don't worry, i've entered in fixed rates bonds in my country just before Trump's ear day + a bunch of local bad news. Interest rates went haywire for a good 2 months (which the red light in my broker popped some bad anxiety/OCD) and I'm recovering just now.

If the fundamentals are solid, your assets should normally turn around, specially of you're doing long term investment. Now, if you don't have the stomach to handle the rollercoaster, one suggestion is to reduce the % you make in variable income or, if you're investing long term and not day trading, simply focus on something else and check your portfolio only when you're rebalancing.

Ps. You can replicate an ETF by seeing where this ETF invest.
Click to expand...
The bold part is my issue honestly. But i guess that's typical when you're starting out. You just panic every time things don't go your way.

dave_d said:
To be blunt everything I've ever read on it ETF/Index based investments pretty much outperform everything long term. You might want to consider a three fund portfolio based on ETFs.

Bogleheads three fund portfolio
Another one

The only real question would be percentages which you could figure out with this

Vanguard calculator.

So for example in my case that calculator was saying I should do about 40%VTI, 30% VXUS and 30%BND (70/30) but I figured I'd probably do 60%VTI, 20%VXUS, and 20%BND.
Click to expand...
Thank you for those urls. I'll be sure to check them out
 
Raven117

Raven117

Member
dEvAnGeL said:
What does this means for 401k plans?
Click to expand...
They are lower.

All of this could just be a normal "correction" or it could be the turn of something more substantial. Nobody knows yet.

Im glad I'm not a day-trader. Dollar cost averaging is your friend. Its easier to stomach the rollercoaster. I have definitely not looked at my accounts today.
 
Grildon Tundy

Grildon Tundy

Member
I can't wait to hear the post-mortem on this, whatever it ends up being. Is it a correction? The start of a recession? The end times? An "unreal" panic-selling drop due to Buffet selling off billions, the Japanese market tanking 12.4% in a day, people thinking indicators are lining up for a recession and create one in a self-fulfilling prophecy?

Anyway, I'm not retiring any time soon, so I'm not selling. I'm down 3% today, and I just put more money into my Roth IRA. I'll be keeping an eye on stocks this week, with more money ready to invest in ETFs if the market keeps trending downward.
 
Last edited:
D

Durien

Member
dEvAnGeL said:
What does this means for 401k plans?
Click to expand...
Don't look and understand a 401k is a long term investment lol (I looked and the damage isn't too bad. A lot of my play money stock bets are hemorrhaging. With the exception of some health care high risk stuff.
 
MaestroMike

MaestroMike

Gold Member

U.S. Hiring Accelerated in September, Blowing Past Expectations​

Jobs report strongly suggests the U.S. might be headed toward a soft landing​


Employers added 254,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said Friday. That was significantly more than the 150,000 economists expected, and marked the largest monthly increase since March. The unemployment rate slipped to 4.1%.

Friday’s bumper payrolls report is likely to close the door on another half-percentage-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its next meeting in November. It should keep officials on track to lower rates by a quarter point.

The Fed is trying to engineer what is called a soft landing, in which inflation moves down without major deterioration in the labor market. Though Friday is just one data point, it suggests that the U.S. is headed in that direction.

“It puts another set of wheels under the plane in terms of assuring a soft landing,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon.

Friday’s report also signaled that hiring this summer wasn’t as weak as initially thought. Revised figures show employers added 72,000 more jobs in July and August combined than earlier reported.

The latest snapshot of the labor market’s health comes just a month before the U.S. presidential election, where the economy and inflation are key issues for voters. The strong jobs report could help Vice President Kamala Harris. In polls, she trails former President Donald Trump on the economy.

Stocks ticked higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8%, or about 340 points, to 42,352.75, a record.

During much of the inflationary post-pandemic boom, stocks often quaked temporarily at stronger-than-expected economic data, because traders took such shocks as a sign that the Fed would tighten monetary policy more aggressively. Investors’ positive reaction Friday showed that they view good news as good news again—even if futures contracts tied to the federal-funds rate suggest traders are now expecting a slower pace of Fed easing.

Employers added jobs at bars and restaurants and construction, as well as in sectors that are less sensitive to the economy’s ups and downs like government, education and healthcare.

There were a few weak spots. Employers modestly cut head count in manufacturing, transportation and warehousing, and temporary help services.

Analysts also said that although September’s jobs report was unexpectedly strong, other economic data point to a slightly less robust hiring picture. Labor Department data released earlier this week showed that the share of workers quitting their jobs each month fell to its lowest rate in more than four years in August, a sign people are more hesitant about leaving their current roles for new ones.

Wages picked up slightly last month, according to the Labor Department. Average hourly earnings rose 4% from a year earlier, the strongest increase since May. That was well above the pace of inflation, which is positive news for price-pinched consumers. The consumer-price index was up 2.5% in August from a year earlier.

“There’s reason for caution, but also the resilience of the U.S. just continues to confound expectations,” said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING. “For that to continue, it needs the Fed to continue gradually easing policy just to give the economy a little bit more breathing room to continue growing.”

Inflationary pressures have eased markedly over the past two years, and the Fed’s focus has shifted more to hiring than price increases. That means the jobs market will play an outsize role in Fed officials’ decisions on the path of interest rates.

Conventional wisdom holds that cooling inflation comes hand-in-hand with a sharp slowdown in the labor market. However, over the past couple of years, U.S. employers have muscled through high interest rates with continued hiring, and inflation has fallen significantly. That combination, if sustained, would amount to a big win for the Fed.

“Perhaps we should reassess our analytical framework of soft landing versus hard landing and just call it what it is: a robust economic expansion,” said RSM U.S. chief economist Joe Brusuelas, in response to Friday’s payrolls report.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said earlier this week that officials would continue to reduce interest rates from a two-decade high to maintain solid economic growth, but that they didn’t see a reason to lower rates as aggressively as they did at their most recent meeting.

The Fed’s next policy meeting is Nov. 6-7. Officials will see one more employment report before then, for October. That report, which will be released Nov. 1, could be less rosy. The month has already seen a major strike by dockworkers at dozens of U.S. ports, which ended late Thursday, and a continuing strike at Boeing. Hurricane Helene could also muddy the October jobs numbers.
Click to expand...

 
Go_Ly_Dow

Go_Ly_Dow

Member
Anyone on GAF trade/invest full time as their main source of income?

I quit my job about 3 years ago and began trading full time. The first 2 years the profits were marginal as I'd put in erratic sums, meaning I'd make HUGE gain and HUGE losses. Then this year I changed tact and went with small sums and quicker flips and have been doing very well.
 
EviLore

EviLore

Expansive Ellipses
Staff Member
Go_Ly_Dow said:
Anyone on GAF trade/invest full time as their main source of income?

I quit my job about 3 years ago and began trading full time. The first 2 years the profits were marginal as I'd put in erratic sums, meaning I'd make HUGE gain and HUGE losses. Then this year I changed tact and went with small sums and quicker flips and have been doing very well.
Click to expand...
Your returns corresponded with how the market behaved in 2023 vs 2024:

0CHKR4H.png


Everyone feels smart in a bull market. Beware when the chart flips.
 
Go_Ly_Dow

Go_Ly_Dow

Member
EviLore said:
0CHKR4H.png


Everyone feels smart in a bull market. Beware when the chart flips.
Click to expand...
100% agree with ya. When the feeling was good I was investing about 70-80% of my available cash amongst multiple stocks (still excessive!)

Now that things don't feel right on so many fronts (the esculating conflicts, the Government borrowing, the debt, Inflation not dead and buried, the tense market nature when interest rate decisions are made, US election, the soaring gold price....) I have shifted down to using about 40% of my available cash for trading and am working it down to about 20%. The next 3-6 months feels critical and so feels right to play it safer than ever.
 
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