Prodigal Son
Member
How much of Hillary's support do you really think are minorities?
Well he's from there. They like em.
Super Tuesday 2016 |OT| The Final Incursion is a double Incursion (Mar 5-15 contests)
- Thread starter B-Dubs
- Start date
- Status
How much of Hillary's support do you really think are minorities?
Well he's from there. They like em.
This. He's still the favourite but he's not as dominant as he should be.
hodayathink
Member
About 20-30%, at minimum. If you do the calculations on the African-American portion of the democratic base, she's already got around 20% of the base.
Prodigal Son
Member
Exactly. And that's in the (southern) states she's been ruling in thus far, right?
Enough to secure victories, but obviously not the biggest voice among her supporters.
In the past two election cycles, the eventual GOP nominee wasn't really dominating on Super Tuesday either:
2008:
Won by John McCain - 9
Won by Mitt Romney - 7
Won by Mike Huckabee - 5
2012:
Won by Mitt Romney - 6
Won by Rick Santorum - 3
Won by Newt Gingrich - 1
Can't win 'em all.
Black Republican
Member
Trump back at a Fox news debate tomorrow, feels like a long time coming
aspiegamer
Member
I'm actually worried about this! Trump has zilch to gain via the debates anymore, and the other candidates + the moderators are going to hound him the entire time with every imaginable attack about literally any random topics. He's walking in knowing the organizers are against him. Rubio is the only one who stands to gain anything with additional debates.
My ideal scenario would be Trump puts up with some abuse, pulls out a copy of "the pledge" from his pocket and walks off the stage in the middle of the debate. That would be so badass. FOX would never forgive him, but they're hardly friends already, and every other media outlet on the planet would cover it as a "holy shit!" moment.
That'd be some proper WWE bullshit, even worse than the past few debates, which already somehow defied expectations of insanity. Desperation time, everyone!
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
Last night only made things worse for the Republican establishment with Cruz taking second place. They really need Carson and Kasich to drop out.
Monocle
Member
Hillasaurus Rex can't stop, won't stop. Witness her power. This elemental fury can't be tamed.
The way is now clear for the core mind's latest meat platform to be deployed. In the wake of Super Tuesday, it will initiate a statistically unbeatable strategy for the general. (6.737 billion successful simulations and counting!) This marginally taller and slimmer homunculus emerges from the space between spaces with a re-engineered recursive empathy module, newly outfitted with a complex lattice of sympathetic neuro-circuitry; over five times as dense as that of the previous flesh chassis! Richly textured emotional blends of startling subtlety, such as mournful reflection tinged with pensive resolve, are now within its expressive range.
Strap in, patriots. The Void Queen is about to light a drumpfster fire.
The way is now clear for the core mind's latest meat platform to be deployed. In the wake of Super Tuesday, it will initiate a statistically unbeatable strategy for the general. (6.737 billion successful simulations and counting!) This marginally taller and slimmer homunculus emerges from the space between spaces with a re-engineered recursive empathy module, newly outfitted with a complex lattice of sympathetic neuro-circuitry; over five times as dense as that of the previous flesh chassis! Richly textured emotional blends of startling subtlety, such as mournful reflection tinged with pensive resolve, are now within its expressive range.
Strap in, patriots. The Void Queen is about to light a drumpfster fire.
The Prezuz 6 Hillary model by Tyrell Corp?
I will never understand this email scandle... I will bet over half of the old fucks running this country don't even know how email works and have staff deal with it for them. I also find it hard to believe that the gov. monitors emails of employees save for the nsa reading them but they read ours too so thats kinda moot. What could she posibly have done through email that would cause such a problem? I bet it was full of useless jokes and cat pictures just like all work email is. Durning the last hearing on this they opt. to make it all public but all the gop side voted no.
He performed badly for the delegates he needed to win to stay on path for the nomination. This is less about "winning" states and more about how big the losses were, since delegates are awarded proportionally. Go here: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/
Sanders was already behind target for the nomination (81% of the target). He needed to win 412 delegates on Tuesday to get back on target. He's going to get less than 300, pushing him even further behind target.
More than any other candidate, that's for sure.
SliceSabre
Banned
Remember when everyone thought Bernie had a chance of beating Clinton?
You Are Viewtiful
Member
Well, there is still a chance.
It's very strange watching people vote against their best interests isn't it? You can't really blame people who had hopes for the best possible outcome can you?
8BitsAtATime
Member
Hmmm I think Bernie Sanders is more of a Jar Jar
His state where he did satisfying work for decades.
I still do. Don't write him off yet.
nature boy
Member
Nope, Rubio will go all the way even if he tanks in Florida. The Rubio campaign believes the northern states are more favorable to him.
Besides, he's the only "establishment" candidate left with even a remote chance.
Is Sanders interested in the VP slot? His chances of winning the nomination are gone, but he has the money to on all the way to the end.
Everyone? No. And there's still a chance right now.
TheOfficeMut
Unconfirmed Member
The turnout numbers for Dems as compared to Reps last night looked worse. Is this to be expected? I hope it doesn't remain this way in the general, damn it.
plagiarize
Banned
This is all very 'you're saying there's a chance?'
Yes. I am. When I say it's very unlikely at this point that Sanders gets the nomination, that also means that there is a chance.
It's still very hard to see a realistic path to the nomination for him, unless we start seeing something indicating momentum building for him, and we just haven't. He continues to underperform compared to what he needs to do. Clinton continues to widen her gap.
There is no sign of the streams crossing, and the streams need to cross if Sanders is going to do anything about those super delegates.
Yes. What it means is the question though. Contrary to what Sanders supporters might have you believe, Clinton and Sanders are both very similar candidates, certainly when contrasted to the vast differences between Trump and either Cruz or Rubio. I'm sure there are a lot more registered Democrats who don't mind who wins out of Clinton and Sanders than there are Republicans who don't mind.
What this would mean in November is tough to predict though. Trump is bringing in new voters, but he's turning off some hardline Republicans like never before. Those hardline Republicans aren't going to stay home (they're a strong voting block) and they aren't going to vote for Clinton either, but a lot of them are saying they'll never vote Trump. I think that's a bigger problem for Trump than those Sanders supporters that are saying they'll never vote Clinton... but it's going to be a ticket where traditional polls and models are going to be way less accurate than normal if Trump vs Clinton ends up being the choice.
Yes. I am. When I say it's very unlikely at this point that Sanders gets the nomination, that also means that there is a chance.
It's still very hard to see a realistic path to the nomination for him, unless we start seeing something indicating momentum building for him, and we just haven't. He continues to underperform compared to what he needs to do. Clinton continues to widen her gap.
There is no sign of the streams crossing, and the streams need to cross if Sanders is going to do anything about those super delegates.
Yes. What it means is the question though. Contrary to what Sanders supporters might have you believe, Clinton and Sanders are both very similar candidates, certainly when contrasted to the vast differences between Trump and either Cruz or Rubio. I'm sure there are a lot more registered Democrats who don't mind who wins out of Clinton and Sanders than there are Republicans who don't mind.
What this would mean in November is tough to predict though. Trump is bringing in new voters, but he's turning off some hardline Republicans like never before. Those hardline Republicans aren't going to stay home (they're a strong voting block) and they aren't going to vote for Clinton either, but a lot of them are saying they'll never vote Trump. I think that's a bigger problem for Trump than those Sanders supporters that are saying they'll never vote Clinton... but it's going to be a ticket where traditional polls and models are going to be way less accurate than normal if Trump vs Clinton ends up being the choice.
I don't think Bernie as VP would benefit Hillary much, nor would Bernie be comfortable there. If he would lose, he would endorse Hillary and continue doing what he was doing for decades in the senate.
But Hillary fans should want to see him going all the way to keep Hillary on her toes. As long as he is there and has reasonable support she can't start to flip over early on.
balladofwindfishes
Member
It means nothing for the general. The Republican race is a lot more competitive and has more candidates.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
It is when your party holds the Whitehouse and there's less candidates running. Regarding how big a difference I can't say.
EDIT: Beaten like Ruboto
Officially he isn't, but of course he's going to say that now. If you're running for president, don't tell your supporters you're okay with being your rival's VP.
That said, I really don't think he wants the VP spot. For one, he can do more good and would be more effective in the Senate or a cabinet spot than as a VP. But also, he wants to be president now; if he settles for VP, it'd only be as a stepping stone to president. And assuming Hillary is nominated, wins and serves two years, he'd be 82 by the time his next chance to run came up.
1st Course
Member
What chance? See this post:
The polls show a big lead for Clinton in all the big states that is polling in the next 2 weeks. If anything the gap will only widen.
Bernie would have to win every other state at this point to win, no?
Why are bernie sanders supporters on reddit so delusional? I somewhat admire their optimism but at this point it seems so naive and blind. Every post that says the race is still super close gets up voted while posts based in reality stating he needs a landslide or a miracle are down voted.
The same way that Cruz won Texas.
Bernie has shown a knack for closing wide polling gaps (even much wider ones than in those polls) given enough time, and there is time now. Plus, Bernie has been outpacing Hillary in campaign donation fund raising as of late.
gutter_trash
Banned
Sarah Palin is officially finished.
Stop I can only get so erect!
538 says it's all but over: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hillary-clintons-got-this/
Casanova
Member
It'll be interesting to see how Clinton's own state (NY) compares to these numbers. A very large majority of Sanders own state votes for him, so he must be doing a wonderful job in that state. I would put money on Clinton's own state being much nearer to the 50% mark or so, and I think that will say a lot about how much influence her unstoppable presence in the media really has helped her.
I'm sure 86% of the votes in your own state has to be some sort of record.
I know it's becoming less likely that we'll see him as the Dem. nominee, but it would be wonderful and refreshing. Go Bernie!
(Either way, I will vote for Clinton if it goes that way, but I would have loved to see Bernie up there. Atleast Clinton is always moderately progressive, even though I think she has too much self-interest and cowardice to be a true revolutionary - which is really what we need to dismantle the oligarchy we are living in.)
TheOfficeMut
Unconfirmed Member
Omg Obama is so evil!
gutter_trash
Banned
I'm loving it actually. The Republican Party is self destruction and they are going to explode at the convention when they are going to "fix" it in smoke filled backrooms.
Shit will get ugly on that side when that Party is not in line with the voters who voted in the Primaries.
Dems have a lock on the Whitehouse in November.
The joke was how American news anchors have said the same thing every election more or less.
I am not however downplaying this election, it is interesting as fuck and I am not even American. My hope still lies with Sanders cause I think he has the right ideas for what America needs right now, but if he doesn't win it will get predictable from there. Hillary will win, not much for the positive changes in America.
Or something absolutely fucking terrible happens and Trump through some miracle of the evil underground mole god wins the election and shit is gonna hit the fan quickly.
How dare they ever dare of challenging the presumptive nominee with their long-shot hopes!
toadsworth
Banned
I'm getting really worried about Trump becoming the president. With Hillary's email scandal and so many people angry at 'the establishment' I can see him winning easily. I'm scared about what that means for the future of my country. Any Canadian gaffers want a new roommate?
Skellig Gra
Member
Eh I wouldn't lose too much sleep over it. Even if he does win the presidency doesn't hold as much power as you think. Biggest impact would be Supreme Court nominees.
toadsworth
Banned
True, but I'm not sure how much longer I'd want to live in a country that elected a reality TV star with no political experience to its highest office.
Angelus Errare
Banned
I mean Reagan was a President.
- Status