Super Tuesday 2016 |OT| The Final Incursion is a double Incursion (Mar 5-15 contests)
- Thread starter B-Dubs
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http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/michigan-democratic/
The poll they weighted the most is also the poll that was the most wrong. They're also throwing endorsements into their algorithms, so it's not 100% polling data driving their forecasts. There's no way for them to predict Sanders' win but nobody forced them to rate it >99% chance against Sanders.
Yep. 538 was given absolute chicken shit for polling data for this one race and the salad reflected the ingredients. Silver can account for errors, dismiss terribly inaccurate polls, but he can't invent the raw data himself.
What scenario where he starts getting larger upsets doesn't start with something like this? That's what's exciting, even if it's still unlikely.
But he isn't going to win (even with upsets like these) and Bernie supporters make out like it's this huge thing when it isn't. It's more a case of just correcting people.
I wouldn't even call this a big one. He got 10 extra delegates from what (fortunately for him) was a delegate rich state.
Ugh... as if Reddit and Facebook weren't obnoxious enough with the Sanders love, this only gives them more (misinformed) ammo.
I know she is still poised to win the nomination though. Keep in mind kids Obama had a super close race in 2008 too.
We should be very cautious though because a Sanders nom against Trump is a win for the GOP. All they need is one ad that paints him a socialiat that will raise your taxes so "others" can go to free college is all it will take. Hilary is a known quantity at this point, theres nothing they can say that will phaze or hurt her now.
Anyway, congrats Bernard. You've successfully pulled the wool over the youths vote eyes.
I know she is still poised to win the nomination though. Keep in mind kids Obama had a super close race in 2008 too.
We should be very cautious though because a Sanders nom against Trump is a win for the GOP. All they need is one ad that paints him a socialiat that will raise your taxes so "others" can go to free college is all it will take. Hilary is a known quantity at this point, theres nothing they can say that will phaze or hurt her now.
Anyway, congrats Bernard. You've successfully pulled the wool over the youths vote eyes.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
Still horrible. He lost almost every delegate from MS, and he'll probably tie in MI. So that puts him even more behind. MI is a great win, but Bernie actually needed (assuming he hit his previous delegate benchmarks, almost all of which he fell short of) 80 delegates today. He'll probably hit 70, so in addition to his other missed targets, he's far short of where he needs to be.
Basically, Bernie needs states to go his way like the South did for Hillary. He needs blowouts, and those aren't on the calendar anymore.
TheKaeptain
Banned
That's because the "BernieBros" don't have the black culture thread to go and make fun of young white voters like the Hillary gaffers have.
I mean, it's not a great look how quickly the message in the thread changed to "doesn't matter, Bernie still can't win."
He reversed a 20 point deficit! That matters! Nobody knows anything for at least 24 hours! Pierre Trudeau may be the next President! WHO CAN SAY ANY MORE
It helps that in general, Sanders has less baggage and less people dislike him as a person.
Battersea Power Station
Member
... but they've obviously seen the posts that say he's not going to win because they appear a few times per page. What makes you think you saying it for the 1000th time is going to make the difference to them? It's fun. Let them have fun.
I hope she comes out
Epsilon-delta
Banned
No one's but again, largest error in primary polling history.
https://go.berniesanders.com/page/s...aZsXRG6mcgM8UGFRL4lPfelTurWSX4ATL_xoCZsHw_wcB
Stop by the /r/SandersforPresident subreddit too if maybe you want to get more involved. Donating by itself is a huge help though of course!
(Is sharing this link allowed? I'm not breaking any rules right?)
I'll match whatever contribution you happen to make and I'll post proof of it to boot.
Michael F. Assbender
Banned
I'm not trying to say anyone is better. Just that one side is much more vocal with the "in your face!" stuff. Which is understandable when rooting for the underdog and they come out on top. I just normally expect that when the underdog is a sports team, not a politician.
But fair enough. I didn't mean to offend or stir shit up. Enjoy your win, Sanders supporters. He's definitely working hard and saying what needs to be said to attract voters.
And either way, I'll vote for the Democrat come November.
lol and which one is Obama in this scenario?
Damn, Cruz came in second? I was hoping Kasich would hold on to that spot.
boiled goose
good with gravy
This is already playing out.
Trump and bernie do well with independents. Not hillary.
How is "Hillary is a corrupt politician bought by wallstreet while I represent the average american" going to play in the general when Trump says that against hillary?
"I am going to bring jobs back here while Hillary is sending them to china and mexico"
These are two attacks he cant levy against sanders.
Both Hillary and Trump have huge unfavorables.
Are democrats going to switch to Trump? Nah. Your concerns are not invalid, but the data and narrative this election cycle dont match your concerns.
I can't believe the RNC is so misguided that they thought Mittens was going to come out and convince people to change their vote.
They're done.
Figured as much. Would be crazy if something like this leads to some Bernie blowouts.
Ok, and how many more times do you guys want to repeat that information? Because I'm sure at this point it has already been engraved into Bernie supports minds and frankly don't care.
Dr_LucienSanchez
Banned
Hah, I can't believe that this is actually a real thing that a real person wrote. Crazy!
VanCityGamer
Member
Not sure it completely failed. Trump is getting beaten pretty easily in Idaho. And the margins weren't massive in Michigan or Mississippi.
Because the majority believe he will win, at this point he is damaging Hillary badly which then in turn damages her in the GE. All for what? He knows he isn't going to win. I mean his chants about anti establishment are going to push voters towards Trump not her ...
Your Entertainer
Member
Wow, what a dumb post. Do you listen to yourself? This incredibly condescending bullshit attitude is worse than what you describe, and your post is absolutely dripping with it. I love the authority with which you speak - tell me more about how a Sanders nom is a win for the GOP, and how nothing will phase Hillary.
Rentahamster
Rodent Whores
Cruz in Idaho, says MSNBC. Interesting.
eyeball_kid
Member
Yeah, when I played soccer as a kid, we shook hands at the end of the game, and if we lost, we didn't say, "Good game, but your record is 4-10, you have no chance at the tournament."
All these sensations in the world and you choose to get Berned.
KuwabaraTheMan
Banned
Yeah, the biggest takeaway is him winning a state that he was supposed to be trailing by 20% in. It opens the door for him to possibly run up bigger margins than expected in states that he was already expected to do well in (Wisconsin, Washington, Oregon, etc).
It also suggests that states like Ohio and Pennsylvania should be good states for him, too. He'll need to win by bigger margins than he did in Michigan, but he can build on this victory in those states (especially in Pennsylvania where he still has quite some time).
hipsterpants
Member
What exactly are you doing?
Just voting for the first time ever!
I like Bernie but he seems too limited a candidate. Hillary seems like a more pragmatic candidate to me. Also his decision to completely abandon the south without much of a fight is really disconcerting to me, regardless of what he says when attempting to court the minority vote. And I'm white.
TurboButts
Member
Don't be a party pooper
Okay, so at what point is he going to actually be gaining delegates? Is that part of the revolution?
Beyhive and Lil' Kim stans are going to murder ya'll.
Voysa Reezun
Banned
Fuck. I was hoping Cruz would get shut out of any wins tonight.
Michael F. Assbender
Banned
I didn't say it to rub it in. Just to point out the only "hopes crushing" Clinton supporters do.
Not intended to frustrate, annoy, or brag. Apologies if that's how it came off.
she gotta step it up then, bernie is running his own race
All 20 polls available say Hillary would win. One poll could be wrong, two polls are encouraging. 20 polls are almost a certainty. Which is how 99% chance happen.
But I'm pulling my hair out here when someone proclaimed, "LOL, Nate should have told us Sanders is going to win." When all available data, none of it showed inclination toward Sanders' victory.
Join us, the King will accept any able bodied men and women!
boiled goose
good with gravy
It is actually weird.
Obama had a lead, but also the momentum.
Here Hillary has the lead but Bernie the momentum.
Obama won the south in 2008, Hillary won the south 2016.
Uh, do people realize that after tonight Clinton has 1,215 delegates to Sander's 566?
She needs 2,383 total for the nom, and she's more than half way there.
The good news about all of this is that Sander's run proves that liberal positions aren't political poison. So hopefully we'll get more liberal politicians running for office in the future.
She needs 2,383 total for the nom, and she's more than half way there.
The good news about all of this is that Sander's run proves that liberal positions aren't political poison. So hopefully we'll get more liberal politicians running for office in the future.
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