Super Tuesday 4. I'm really feeling (The After Bern) March 22, 26 contests
- Thread starter NeoXChaos
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User 463088
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Why It's Mathematically Improbable Bernie Will Win
If Bernie wins every single state that he is favored in by a margin of 75/25, and Hillary only wins the states she is favored in 51/49....Hillary still has a 67 delegate advantage over Bernie.
This is impossible because there are no way her margins will be that small in places like Maryland, DC, PR, California or New York. Plus, Bernie's not getting 75% of the vote everywhere else .
If Bernie wins every single state that he is favored in by a margin of 75/25, and Hillary only wins the states she is favored in 51/49....Hillary still has a 67 delegate advantage over Bernie.
This is impossible because there are no way her margins will be that small in places like Maryland, DC, PR, California or New York. Plus, Bernie's not getting 75% of the vote everywhere else .
OuterLimits
Member
Trump has more votes than Hillary in Arizona. By a couple thousand anyway. 69% reporting for Repubs, 71% for Dems.
Nice win by Hillary there. Not surprising Cruz and Bernie are dominating Utah though.
Nice win by Hillary there. Not surprising Cruz and Bernie are dominating Utah though.
MSNBC calls Utah for Cruz.
Edit: MSNBC and AP call Idaho for Bernie.
https://twitter.com/AP/status/712526024496513027
Edit: MSNBC and AP call Idaho for Bernie.
https://twitter.com/AP/status/712526024496513027
Damn! Is non-viability 15%?
But Clinton already took Arizona...?
Officerrob
Banned
Close it to what exactly?
maabus1999
Member
So Bernie's best night ends in a draw. Delegate wise.
You Know Nothing
Member
Holy fuck.
But MOMENTUM!
Bernie is getting more delegates.
If current results hold he has closed the 300+ delegate gap by 4 I think.
Carrying that Michigan momentum.
aspiegamer
Member
Woah. You know, even after Supers, I think with that kind of margin in Idaho as well Bernie might actually end up with a net + of delegates tonight. Not a lot! But a few! So the good news for supporters is that you didn't fall any farther behind needing 58% of the remaining delegates, not including your campaign to magically convince all the Supers to convert over.
Damn, if only places like Texas and Ohio allowed re-voting. All that retroactive momentum would surely start to kick in!
Damn, if only places like Texas and Ohio allowed re-voting. All that retroactive momentum would surely start to kick in!
excelsiorlef
Member
That's retroactive momentum at work. With Sanders math those 4 get sent back in time, are warped by the space time continuum and when they return they're still worth 4 but they have the momentum of 50!
maabus1999
Member
He is going to be ahead 3 or 4 delegates out of what a 100? That's a draw in primaries.
A little tiny bit of momentum. Bernie fans are out cheering "We narrowed the gap by four, show Clinton the door!" Can't you hear the revolution aborning?
maabus1999
Member
Uh ok..........
excelsiorlef
Member
It's not spin. It's a net of 4 when he needs 40
ITS A DEAD HEAT
He hasn't got his 58%_target tonight.
excelsiorlef
Member
A Hillary Clinton nomination.
What's there to spin? Before tonight, he was down by more than 300. After tonight, he's still down by more than 300.
Rough estimate is he hit about 52%, maybe 53%. He's just not making up the counts like he's supposed to be.
Well, it'll be a bit higher than 58% as a target going forward won't it?
aspiegamer
Member
Hah, you're right! He managed to break even, so 50%. In actuality he's fallen farther behind in the overall picture.
Apologies, GAF! I was giving Bernie too much credit for once. Sorry!
The only thing I am saying is that Bernie is getting more delegates than Hillary tonight.
To say that is a draw is not true.
DR2K
Banned
Let the boy dream.
neurosisxeno
Member
If Sanders were to magically end up with more Pledged Delegates than Clinton you can bet your ass the Supers would switch over. A majority of Pledged Delegates would mean essentially more people voted for Sanders overall, which is not something they can avoid. If the Democrats gave Clinton the win over Sanders--assuming he had more pledged delegates--they would be no better than the Republicans and their voters would be pretty disenfranchised.
Can you hear the people sing? Singing the song of Angry Men...
Even as a Bernie supporter I found that line oddly fitting.
5 delegates or so out of the 131 up for grabs, or about 3%. Not a draw, but not exactly a resounding win, either. Certainly not enough of a win to change anything.
It's a pyrrhic victory.
titiklabingapat
Member
We are really doing this until June, aren't we.
He's talking about the ludicrous idea coming out of the Sanders camp that they can nos lose the pledged count but get the supers to switch because he is "more electable" in the general.
The mental gymnastics in r/S4P trying to explain that away is hilarious.
Absoludacrous
Member
He's referring to Sanders wanting the Supers to switch to him even if Hillary wins the majority vote. So Sanders basically wants exactly what would happen in your last sentence.
In other news it looks like Cruz will be the second candidate to break 70% in one or more states tonight if his vote share stays above 70% in Utah. Vote share total in Utah adds up to >100% right now which I find weird, but that may be because of rounding errors.
Edit: Nevermind the vote share total is not above 100% anymore in Utah.
Edit: Nevermind the vote share total is not above 100% anymore in Utah.
Officerrob
Banned
It's going to turn out the same way anyone who pays attention knows it's going to turn out. Bernie is going to go on a run in the smaller, white, and very liberal states coming up
More people voted for Clinton than Obama in 2008.
excelsiorlef
Member
All the power to him for going for it I just want him to admit then that he is in fact a politician just like the rest of em.
But who is kill?
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