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[matthewwhatever]

Savage gets to play even if he doesn't get the votes imo. Shane is a lock. Troyzan is unfortunately probably a lock as well. Probst will put Culpepper in. : Vytas is a lock. Spencer is a lock. Jeremy as the only black man in the list is a lock. Keith is popular and has recency bias on his side. Joe is a lock.

I agree with most of your analysis, but I'm skeptical of the bolded. Didn't Culpepper go from getting the last name treatment right off the bat, then Probst started calling him Brad? I feel like the man-crush got less and less obvious the longer Brad was on the show, but I could be totally misremembering things.

 

[Ganhyun]

Chaos Kass in the game again possibly? Dear God, the random moves will flow just because she wants to see people fight.

 

[kirblar]

Chaos Kass in the game again possibly? Dear God, the random moves will flow just because she wants to see people fight.

The entire post-swap Brains tribe is going to be in there.

 

[Ganhyun]

The entire post-swap Brains tribe is going to be in there.

Yes, but I expect Spencer and Tasha to make moves for logical reasons, not just because they want to see complete chaos everywhere every other week or whatever.

 

[kirblar]

Yes, but I expect Spencer and Tasha to make moves for logical reasons, not just because they want to see complete chaos everywhere every other week or whatever.

I definitely think Kass is toast early- you simply can't trust her.

 

[Grexeno]

Man, I just hope the final cast isn't too disappointing.

 

[Jigorath]

They're letting 'Merica pick all 20? Interesting. If that's the case here are my predics ranked by popularity:

Women:

1. Shirin (obvious)
2. Ciera (obvious)
3. Tasha (obvious)
4. Abi (one of the most memorable villains since Russell, comes from a very popular season)
5. Carolyn (recency bias and she got a great edit the night the vote went up)
6. Kelly Wigglesworth (classic player that people have been waiting for to come back)
7. Kass (another memorable and popular villain)
8. Natalie (A hot and somewhat recent contestant. Kind of a toss up but I think she'll be back)
9. Kelly Wentworth (the recency bias might bring her back unfortunately. Plus she's campaigning very hard.)
10. Sabrina (not very memorable but somewhat recent. PG might get in over her I'm not sure.)

Men:

1. Spencer (obvious)
2. Joe (obvious)
3. Vytas (obvious)
4. Keith (popular player from a very recent season)
5. Max (I'm not sure how popular he is with casual voters but he has a huge presence in the online communities. Plus he was just on so he's fresh in people's minds)
6. Woo (Not a very memorable contestant but he's recent and part of a very popular season)
7. Jeremy (recency bias will get him back)
8. Stephen (not a recent player but he's had a huge online presence in the last few years)
9. Andrew (another classic player like Kelly and he's Jeff's best friend so...)
10. Troyzan (kind of a popular character. I'm not too sure on him but I think he has a better shot than Terry or Shane.)

The big losers here are players like PG and Terry. They don't have recency bias or nostalgia helping them. They're in kind of an awkward middle phase here.

 

[kirblar]

China was a super-popular season. PG will be fine. Terry definitely is someone who could be left behind, sadly. (He's not getting any younger, so I think it's now or never w/ him.)

 

[Grexeno]

I think CBS is still exercising final say rights over the cast anyway.

 

[Jigorath]

China was a super-popular season. PG will be fine. Terry definitely is someone who could be left behind, sadly. (He's not getting any younger, so I think it's now or never w/ him.)

I hope so. I've been waiting for PG to come back for a while now. She should have been on Micronesia.

 

[kirblar]

I hope so. I've been waiting for PG to come back for a while now. She should have been on Micronesia.

IIRC, she was living in Australia for a long time and wasn't available. Tho probably didn't matter for S16.

S23 not being FvF2 was such a big screw up on production's part. (Jeff let that slip in his AMA)

 

[Brian Fellows]

Let my mom make my picks today. Here is who she picked......

My picks are a little different.

Tate out Carolyn, T-Bird, and Mikayla and put in Monica, Natalie, and PG.

Take out Keith, Mike, and Woo and put in Jim, Jeremy, and Culpepper.

They're letting 'Merica pick all 20? Interesting. If that's the case here are my predics ranked by popularity:

Women:

1. Shirin (obvious)
2. Ciera (obvious)
3. Tasha (obvious)
4. Abi (one of the most memorable villains since Russell, comes from a very popular season)
5. Carolyn (recency bias and she got a great edit the night the vote went up)
6. Kelly Wigglesworth (classic player that people have been waiting for to come back)
7. Kass (another memorable and popular villain)
8. Natalie (A hot and somewhat recent contestant. Kind of a toss up but I think she'll be back)
9. Kelly Wentworth (the recency bias might bring her back unfortunately. Plus she's campaigning very hard.)
10. Sabrina (not very memorable but somewhat recent. PG might get in over her I'm not sure.)

Men:

1. Spencer (obvious)
2. Joe (obvious)
3. Vytas (obvious)
4. Keith (popular player from a very recent season)
5. Max (I'm not sure how popular he is with casual voters but he has a huge presence in the online communities. Plus he was just on so he's fresh in people's minds)
6. Woo (Not a very memorable contestant but he's recent and part of a very popular season)
7. Jeremy (recency bias will get him back)
8. Stephen (not a recent player but he's had a huge online presence in the last few years)
9. Andrew (another classic player like Kelly and he's Jeff's best friend so...)
10. Troyzan (kind of a popular character. I'm not too sure on him but I think he has a better shot than Terry or Shane.)

The big losers here are players like PG and Terry. They don't have recency bias or nostalgia helping them. They're in kind of an awkward middle phase here.

From what I've seen following #survivorsecondchance on Twitter for the last two days Spencer, Joe, Mike, and Shane all seem like locks. Probably Vytas too.

Carolyn, Shireen, Kass, and Ciera all seem like locks. Tasha is probably in but I've seen plenty leaving her out too.

 

[kirblar]

I don't think Carolyn is anywhere close to a lock. The S30 loom is real.

One player didn't make it in BB7 out of the wave- Ivette.

 

[Grexeno]

I don't think Carolyn is anywhere close to a lock.

I guess we're assuming the female choices aren't strong enough to counteract recency bias.

 

[Brian Fellows]

I guess we're assuming the female choices aren't strong enough to counteract recency bias.

I'm seeing seeing a ton of people vote for her. Many are voting for all 5 returning current season players. Max is the one left out the most.

 

[UberTag]

I'm seeing seeing a ton of people vote for her. Many are voting for all 5 returning current season players. Max is the one left out the most.

I'm happily snubbing Max (who doesn't deserve it) and Joe (who will get on the show simply due to his age). I think Joe will be drastically out of his depth in terms of interacting with players twice his age so he'd better hope some useless young fodder on the female side gets cast like Natalie so he'll have some angles to work. I'm hoping someone like Ciera will latch onto him to use as a shield while she compensates for his lack of social game.

I'm also not voting for Mama C (although I like her) simply due to the female side of the equation being so much stronger in terms of names. I'll be really upset if she makes it and T-Bird doesn't.

We all expect Mike's winning this season but on the off-chance he does not I'm still throwing votes his way because he deserves it.

 

[KuwabaraTheMan]

I'm seeing seeing a ton of people vote for her. Many are voting for all 5 returning current season players. Max is the one left out the most.

I'm expecting most of the casual fans to vote mostly folks from the last couple of years.

The question is just if the more dedicated fans can get a good variety of the older players in.

 

[UberTag]

Survivor: Second Chances | Teresa “T-Bird” Cooper Interview - RobHasaWebsite.com

 

[matthewwhatever]

I'm seeing seeing a ton of people vote for her. Many are voting for all 5 returning current season players. Max is the one left out the most.

Which is surprising, since he might be the one trying his hardest to get votes. I don't think he makes it back based on fan votes, though -- he didn't really do anything interesting during his brief time on the show, and his edit did him no favours.

 

[JinjoUnchained]

We need Terry AND Shane. It still blows my mind that they haven't been back yet. After that, Vytas, Spencer, and Keith are must-haves. With that five, it would be interesting to see Terry play with Vytas, the brother of the guy who defeated him the first time (under what many consider unfair circumstances). Shades of Coach having to play with Brandon on South Pacific. Besides that they can do what they want. Troyzan would be fine, I liked him the first time.

On the distaff side, I don't know if she'll make it, but I'd love to see Stephanie from Redemption Island get another shot. I seem to recall an interview where Russell stated that she's the best Survivor player he ever allied with, but got a really shitty draw that led to her ouster. Seems like the perfect "second chance" contestant. After that, I'm definitely down for some more Kelly, Kimmi, Kass, PG, and Shirin. Let's go all in on the crazy!

 

[UberTag]

On the distaff side, I don't know if she'll make it, but I'd love to see Stephanie from Redemption Island get another shot. I seem to recall an interview where Russell stated that she's the best Survivor player he ever allied with, but got a really shitty draw that led to her ouster. Seems like the perfect "second chance" contestant. After that, I'm definitely down for some more Kelly, Kimmi, Kass, PG, and Shirin. Let's go all in on the crazy!

Russell used to be a big advocate of Stephanie but he's endorsing Monica and his former squeeze Mikayla on Twitter.
Not that he's a qualified judge of stalwart Survivor play or anything.

 

[matthewwhatever]

I'm hoping Mikayla makes it back. She deserves to play with people who don't start feeling all rape-y just because they're around a woman in a bikini.

Man, writing that out really drives home what an appalling decision it was to have Lil Hantz on the show...though he probably would've fit right in this season.

 

[lazyproblems]

I actually think Carolyn is a lot more likely than some people believe. She's nowhere near as negative as Will, Rodney, and Dan, and sadly a lot of the casuals think that the female side is the one full of weak links. I wouldn't put money on it, but I also wouldn't be surprised at all if she squeezes onto the season.


To add more onto that idea, regarding the Ivette=Carolyn comparison, I believe that it’s only accurate if you generalize the situations completely. Ivette was caught on camera calling people sandn*****s, was perceived to be bullying the runaway fan favorite and said that America sucked and should go fuck themselves.

By contrast, Carolyn’s stock has just risen as of the last episode, she’s admittedly perceived as a Grinch but while she sided with the group against Shirin, she also hasn’t been egregiously awful to her. Not like the 3 dudes. And before it's said, I'm not claiming that she's popular or well liked, but a few people warmed up to her after the most recent episode.

If you look around Reddit, Survivor Sucks and other places, she is by no means an overwhelming favorite, but she is on people’s cast lists. If you look at the casuals on facebook, quite a few are complaining about complaining about the list and saying the women are all awful choices and that they don’t recognize a few of the older people. If enough of them vote for her based on recognition alone, it could easily push her through.

Again, I’m not confident enough to say that she will for certain, but if she gets on, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least. Next week’s episode could easily make or break her.

 

[lazyproblems]

Sandra's ballot:

Aras' endorsements from Survivor Sucks:

Hey guys its me...fo sho...and I'll prove it. Peep my latest tweet
So far I've cast votes for:
1.Vytas
2.Terry
3.Shane
4.Jim Rice
5.Spencer
6.Jeremy
7.Fishbach
8. Keith - You need just enough bad game play each season to keep things interesting, and Keith is the man for the task. He is fun to watch, fun to listen to, and has absolutely no idea how to play the game (at least the first season he didn't). Its hard to say how much his game will have improved, but I don't imagine it will be much of a drastic jump.
9. Troyzan - Another Alpha Male (joins Vytas, Terry, and Jeremy on Alpha male island), Troyzan isn't necessarily the best alliance maker, but he plays hard, and you'd have to imaging that after stewing for years on his inability to woo Kim's allegiance in his first season, he'll be playing a whole lot harder.
10. Joe - I'm hesistant to vote in a guy who is just coming off the current season. I tend to feel like they haven't had enough time to stew and more importantly let go of their first season. But we need a little bit more young blood. He's good looking. When all the alpha males begin thier pissing contest, i'm confidant that he will join in.

So those are my MEN choices.

As for the ladies:
1. Ciera - She knows how to play now, and she is a crafty little liar when she wants to be. She will go deep in the game if she can get past the first few tribals.
2. Sabrina - She's smart and strong, she plays with a steadiness that will allow for great game play to form around her.
3. Abi Maria - How can you not want to see Abi play again. With no RC to handcuff her, its exciting to imagine what her game will look like!
4. Tasha - I love Tasha. She's a challenge beast, and understands the game. Its hard not to pull for her.
5. Kass - Two words: Pot Stirrer. I don't think Kass is great at this game, but I do think she will annoy a lot of folks, play unpredictably, and thats a great recipe for good tv.
6. Natalie Tenerelli - I'll be curious to see how much reading the BR Rules changes her game. I have to admit a little bias, Natalie is a friend...so there was no way to not include her!
7. Kelly Wentworth - She got railroaded by her father last time around...I'm curious to see how she does on her own.
8. Stephanie - Has some spit and vinegar..
9. Momma C - She's been rocking this season!
10. Shirin - She's a fan of the game, but I'd be lying if I said I was a fan of her game. I do think she will annoy a lot of people, which makes for good tv....I'm excited to see who she aligns with.

Those are my votes...should be a fun season no matter who gets cast...
Peace and Love,
Aras

Richard Hatch's thoughts. It's long, but here's an excerpt:

 

[Grexeno]

Pay your taxes Hatch.

 

[hoverboarder]

Richard Hatch:

 

[lazyproblems]

I think someone at survivor sucks said it best:

Richard Hatch the guy who:
Smuggled matches into all stars
sexually abused a woman
got arrested for not paying taxes

is questioning someone elses integrity?

 

[Grexeno]

Richard Hatch once literally took a bite out of a live shark.

This symbolism tells you everything you need to know about him.

 

[lazyproblems]

Kelly Wiglesworth ‏@kellywigles
Just let it go. #thatsallihavetosayaboutthat

Kelly Wiglesworth @kellywigles
Last post for today and a daily affirmation- "I am the architect of my life; I build its foundation and choose its contents." #namaste

.

 

[SecretMoblin]

lmao

of course I have a certain amount of respect for Richard and what he did - and I think he actually did a lot not just for Survivor but for reality television in general - but I'm totally #teamKelly here

Rich being silly

 

[UberTag]

Survivor: Second Chances | Jim Rice Interview - RobHasaWebsite.com

I've made a couple revisions to my ballot upon further reflection.

I'm now backing Troyzan instead of Savage for the guys.
And I'm now backing Sabrina instead of Kelley Wentworth for the girls.

 

[Velcro Fly]

We all owe it to ourselves to ensure we get another season of Keith "Stick to the plan!" Nale

 

[Brian Fellows]

I don't think Carolyn is anywhere close to a lock. The S30 loom is real.

According to this 100% scientific Reddit poll you are right and I am wrong......


Women

Men

Survivor: Second Chances | Jim Rice Interview - RobHasaWebsite.com

I've made a couple revisions to my ballot upon further reflection.

I'm now backing Troyzan instead of Savage for the guys.
And I'm now backing Sabrina instead of Kelley Wentworth for the girls.

He told Mike to fuck off. LOL

I switched a vote from Shirin to T-Bird.

 

[UberTag]

He told Mike to fuck off. LOL

I can see Jim being somewhat of a disaster if he somehow gets on Survivor 31 but I think he'll be an entertaining one.
Telling Mike to fuck off is a little out there but Jim probably figures he's dead in the water unless Mike wins in which case he can't come after him in the game anyhow.

According to this 100% scientific Reddit poll you are right and I am wrong......

Women
Men

Reddit polls are always "100% scientific". This one's interesting in that it makes it seem like we have conclusive Top 10s in both categories assuming the likely Mike "Worlds Apart" victory.

I wish I could see the appeal in Abi Maria. I must have been so completely blinded by my love and adoration of all things Denise that I failed to pick up on what makes her must-see television. Then again, I also couldn't see the appeal in a J'Tia return that so many were clamoring for when she was initially rumored to be part of this group.

 

[lazyproblems]

We all owe it to ourselves to ensure we get another season of Keith "Stick to the plan!" Nale

Totally agree.

According to this 100% scientific Reddit poll you are right and I am wrong......


Women

Men

I'm still not convinced. We'll see, but I still think Carolyn is very much so in contention for this season.

 

[Brian Fellows]

I'm still not convinced. We'll see, but I still think Carolyn is very much so in contention for this season.

I'm sure she is contention too. Just not quite the lock I thought she was.

 

[lazyproblems]

I'm sure she is contention too. Just not quite the lock I thought she was.

Oh, I agree with that. I don't think she's a lock per se, but I can still very easily see her sliding in at 9th or 10th place.

 

[BowieZ]

Carolyn will slide out of contention for S31 in 2 weeks time because she will be given a million dollar cheque.

 

[wachie]

Why are people voting for Shirin?

 

[kirblar]

Why are people voting for Shirin?

Because people like her and she got a raw deal on S30?

 

[Jigorath]

I like Jim but he has no shot at coming back. At least not this season.

 

[kirblar]

I like Jim but he has no shot at coming back. At least not this season.

Public hates his season, and he wasn't memorable enough on it- definitely someone I want to see back though.

 

[Parch]

I'm expecting most of the casual fans to vote mostly folks from the last couple of years.
The question is just if the more dedicated fans can get a good variety of the older players in.

Definitely a big factor.
Public voting also ends up being a popularity contest instead of recognizing talent.

 

[User 479360]

I wish Colleen from Season One would return.

 

[Grexeno]

I wish Colleen from Season One would return.

If I remember correctly, she is 100% done with Survivor period.

 

[Brian Fellows]

The one name I was hoping to see was Marty Piumbo from Nicaragua. Really wanted to see him call someone else "dumb as a bag of hammers".

 

[KuwabaraTheMan]

The one name I was hoping to see was Marty Piumbo from Nicaragua. Really wanted to see him call someone else "dumb as a bag of hammers".

Marty's a guy I'm really surprised hasn't come back. Him and Kenny were two people I really wanted to see in this vote (along with Natalie Bolton who came frustratingly close again).

 

[kirblar]

The whole HII situation with him probably makes him not want to go back. (Apparently the whole bizarre play of it was due to another castmember accidentally walking in on his confessional because Nicaragua's beach areas are tiny.)

 

[matthewwhatever]

I wish I could see the appeal in Abi Maria. I must have been so completely blinded by my love and adoration of all things Denise that I failed to pick up on what makes her must-see television. Then again, I also couldn't see the appeal in a J'Tia return that so many were clamoring for when she was initially rumored to be part of this group.

I think it's the fact she was so totally delusional while on the show (and the hilarity of her pretending to have a super-HII), but then able to turn it off once she got voted out.

Carolyn will slide out of contention for S31 in 2 weeks time because she will be given a million dollar cheque.

*shudder*

The one name I was hoping to see was Marty Piumbo from Nicaragua. Really wanted to see him call someone else "dumb as a bag of hammers".

I think apart from Brenda, they generally try to pretend Nicaragua never happened. In fact, considering how much time Brenda got on her return season, they probably forgot about her, too. But yeah, he would've been a good return choice.

 

[Grexeno]

Nicaragua also featured Sash telling Jane he'd pay her mortgage off in exchange for her vote in the FTC, which basically caused to producers to tell everyone they weren't allowed to vote for Sash in the FTC.