Support NeoGAF

[Mozza]

Yeah, I should have clarified.

I'm not suggesting the Switch 2 will be a total flop like the Wii U. I'm pointing out that analysts can be very wrong.

Any predictions on sales should be approached with caution. That article I posted predicted the Wii U would sell over 50 million in 4 years.


Nintendo have almost done everything right for it to be a smash hit, except the software prices. That could be difficult in this economic climate.

If the casual gamers turn up like they did with the Switch then it'll be another huge seller. That's who Nintendo need to sell to as that's the customer base who made the Wii, DS and Switch huge success stories.



The Wii brand was also very strong.

I was also pointing out that predicting console sales isn't always correct. Saying the Switch 2 will blast through 20 million sales in year one isn't a guarantee.



I know. Amazingly I'm a analyst in my day job. Lol.

I should have added more context to that. My prediction is around 70 million. Not a flop, but not close to Switch 1 sales.

As I said not the same thing. The WII and DS were pretty much born out of necessity fro Nintendo. The traditional console space had two major players and their home console sales were declining. They simply did not want to stay in the power race anymore. The Wii and DS both got in at the ground floor with touch and motion controlls and ushered in the biggest sdelling console generation of all time. Pretty much a lightning in a bottle situation. They sold around 255 million consoles. The problem as you suggested was they tapped into the more casual crowd who they simply did not understand. Most of these customers had simply moved onto cheaper tablet devices and motion controlls had lost their appeal. A perfect example of this are the two Mario Galaxy games on the Wii. The original was advertised with a heavy lean towards the motion control aspect while in reality this was only really a co-op mode. The game was as traditional as normal, The first game sold around 13 million copies. The sequel only managed around 7 million as the casuals just ignored it as it was to tough to play for them.

Nintendo are a lot more knowledgeable about the market now and have done a very good job with the Switch. Of course combining both their handheld and portable consoles has helped as well. The Switch barand love it or hate it is very popular right now. I also feel Nintendo will have a much better idea of it's own market due to the online services etc. Another often overlooked feature of the Switch is the news button on the home screen. The simple design pretty much always draws your eyes to the little greem notifications. And Nintendo will be using this to reach customers that will not be on gaming forums etc. I know my sister knew the Switch 2 was coming out because of this feature.

 

[Mozza]

ahahahaha almost mores lottery then wii u ltd in jarpan

2.2 million people applied to pre-order a Switch 2 in Japan alone, says Nintendo

Nintendo has warned that it may struggle to meet demand for Nintendo Switch 2 consoles in Japan.

www.gamesindustry.biz

You are wrong. Nobody is going to buy the Switch because of the price of the console and one game....... Yea right

 

[Baemono]

The Wii brand was also very strong.

Yes but sales collapsed after 4 years, so betting on it for the next console was a huge mistake.

 

[DryvBy]

I buy every console day one. The fact that this is the first console in years that's been available 5 minutes after launch, much less it was multiple hours for GameStop, says a few things:

- They have a ton of stock, which is unlikely due to price raising and chip shortages still.

- They aren't as popular as Nintendo fans want you to think.

Choice B for me. The Series X sold out faster and we all know how unpopular that system is

 

[Baemono]

A console with a Snapdragon 888 paired with a RTX 3050 - 50% cores/performance is nothing to write home or cheer about. This stuff has been on the market for over 4 years mostly in flagship Cellphones that were also gaming capable, now averaging $350 Paired as a combo since 2023.

None of these so called gaming smartphone can run properly a current gen title (nor even last gen), the comparison is pointless

 

[Baemono]

I buy every console day one. The fact that this is the first console in years that's been available 5 minutes after launch, much less it was multiple hours for GameStop, says a few things:

- They have a ton of stock, which is unlikely due to price raising and chip shortages still.

- They aren't as popular as Nintendo fans want you to think.

Choice B for me. The Series X sold out faster and we all know how unpopular that system is

The Series had 3 million in stock for launch, most of them being Series S, Microsoft believing it would be more popular than the X. Not the same situation

 

[MALpractice311]

Let's see how it's doing in 12 months before we say much.

Bingo. Enthusiasts ars lining up right now. We've yet to see the mainstream's reaction to the Switch 2's pricing.

 

[PlayStaytion]

$499 switch 2? $80 game? In this economy? Should be a problem but consumers show time and time again that they are willing to pay up.

Don't ask me why, but the reality is a small minority may complain but people don't speak with their wallets. Or rather they DO speak with their wallets and what they are saying is: charge me more plz, I'm ready to pay whatever it takes

You're talking about who basically buys every platform at the budget of the average person who spend on 1 to 2 platforms. There's nothing wrong with these people, I wanna learn from them actually.

 

[IDKFA]

As I said not the same thing. The WII and DS were pretty much born out of necessity fro Nintendo. The traditional console space had two major players and their home console sales were declining. They simply did not want to stay in the power race anymore. The Wii and DS both got in at the ground floor with touch and motion controlls and ushered in the biggest sdelling console generation of all time. Pretty much a lightning in a bottle situation. They sold around 255 million consoles. The problem as you suggested was they tapped into the more casual crowd who they simply did not understand. Most of these customers had simply moved onto cheaper tablet devices and motion controlls had lost their appeal. A perfect example of this are the two Mario Galaxy games on the Wii. The original was advertised with a heavy lean towards the motion control aspect while in reality this was only really a co-op mode. The game was as traditional as normal, The first game sold around 13 million copies. The sequel only managed around 7 million as the casuals just ignored it as it was to tough to play for them.

Nintendo are a lot more knowledgeable about the market now and have done a very good job with the Switch. Of course combining both their handheld and portable consoles has helped as well. The Switch barand love it or hate it is very popular right now. I also feel Nintendo will have a much better idea of it's own market due to the online services etc. Another often overlooked feature of the Switch is the news button on the home screen. The simple design pretty much always draws your eyes to the little greem notifications. And Nintendo will be using this to reach customers that will not be on gaming forums etc. I know my sister knew the Switch 2 was coming out because of this feature.

Nintendo have done the smart thing keeping the same form factor. The console is easy to understand. It's a Switch, just with more power.

Where Nintendo might slip up is with the game prices of their own software. Variable pricing is a scummy move that might make a lot of casual gamers - especially young families already struggling in a harsh economic climate - think twice about picking up the system.

The RRP of Mario Kart 8 deluxe was £49.99. Mario Kart World will ne £74.99 for physical, or £66 for digital. A huge increase and for a lot of people probably too much.

We'll see how it pans out for Nintendo after around 12 months.

 

[BlackTron]

Switch 2 is $450, not $499. Mario Kart Bundle is $499. Mario Kart World, separate physical/digital copy, is $80

When most people complaining hardest about the price don't even know what it is, it smells like something.

 

[DeltaPolarBear]

I buy every console day one. The fact that this is the first console in years that's been available 5 minutes after launch, much less it was multiple hours for GameStop, says a few things:

- They have a ton of stock, which is unlikely due to price raising and chip shortages still.

- They aren't as popular as Nintendo fans want you to think.

Choice B for me. The Series X sold out faster and we all know how unpopular that system is

Or maybe, they finally solved the Scalper problem.

 

[Little Mac]

I'm still on the fence, but a buddy of mine just got the Steam Deck OLED and I immediately fell in love with it. It's very, very comfortable to hold and the screen is fucking gorgeous. When you factor in Steam sales as well, it's a hard choice. I'd be missing out on Nintendo first party but literally everything else seems like a better (and less expensive) experience. I see both the Switch 2 and Steam Deck as supplementary consoles. If you only have a PS5 like me, I feel like the Steam Deck provides much greater value and a much better dedicated handheld experience. If you have a gaming pc and already have access to the Steam ecosystem, as a whole I could see the Switch 2 possibly being the better choice for you. Regardless of what is better for you based on your situation, the Steam Deck is a much better handheld in regards to design and ergonomics.

 

[Mozza]

Nintendo have done the smart thing keeping the same form factor. The console is easy to understand. It's a Switch, just with more power.

Where Nintendo might slip up is with the game prices of their own software. Variable pricing is a scummy move that might make a lot of casual gamers - especially young families already struggling in a harsh economic climate - think twice about picking up the system.

The RRP of Mario Kart 8 deluxe was £49.99. Mario Kart World will ne £74.99 for physical, or £66 for digital. A huge increase and for a lot of people probably too much.

We'll see how it pans out for Nintendo after around 12 months.

It will be fine. Nothing to see here.

 

[BlackTron]

What a dense and disingenuous comment. In your rush to prove a point, you've ran right past the idea that you yourself brought up. Different people place different value on things. Paying $80 for a game like Mario Kart is gross , paying $50 for clair obscur expedition 33 isn't. IMO - in case you forget that part again.

"What game is everyone always willing to play, offers challenge to experienced gamers but scales up from 3 year olds?"

Give me some more answers beyond Mario Kart. Put them all on a list. Compare the value of those items. They sold 75 million copies of 8 for a reason.

There are some who think staring at a single player RPG for 50 hours alone is gross. Don't be like those people.

 

[Mozza]

"What game is everyone always willing to play, offers challenge to experienced gamers but scales up from 3 year olds?"

Give me some more answers beyond Mario Kart. Put them all on a list. Compare the value of those items. They sold 75 million copies of 8 for a reason.

There are some who think staring at a single player RPG for 50 hours alone is gross. Don't be like those people.

Totally agree.

Also there are games at retail that have DLC that also bump up the price. Mario Kart is an evergreen title. If you think $80 is to expensive play it then sell it. Simple.

 

[BlackTron]

Totally agree.

Also there are games at retail that have DLC that also bump up the price. Mario Kart is an evergreen title. If you think $80 is to expensive play it then sell it. Simple.

While this is true, MKW is likely to have its own DLC later.

 

[TheKratos]

IMO anything below 500 bux for something you will use for years is a good price.

 

[pulicat]

A console with a Snapdragon 888 paired with a RTX 3050 - 50% cores/performance is nothing to write home or cheer about. This stuff has been on the market for over 4 years mostly in flagship Cellphones that were also gaming capable, now averaging $350 Paired as a combo since 2023. The only positive is it will play Nintendo exclusives with Nintendo's blessing. So yay, Nintendo made a cellphone with a Nintendo dedicated launcher and cash shop. Woopty doo! Welcome to gaming in 2025 big N.
Nintendo Switch 2 PCB Leak Reveals an NVIDIA Tegra T239 Chip Optically Shrunk to 5nm

Also:
Steam Deck LCD: $399
Steam Deck OLED: $549 and it does everything you listed with alternatives i.e. FSR, and OS updates to ver: 3.6+
Steam Deck Official

The one thing I will throw Steam under the bus for is pushing an acceptance that gaming in your hands is a $500+ market now. Long dead is the handhelds of $250-350 (psp/vita DS/3DS/3dsXL). ASUS and others can gargle my balls asking $900+ for a handheld.

I will stick to Game Pass Ultimate on my $250 Lenovo Duet 5 and $100 Xbox Elite Core.

Lmao, your SD888 isn't going to run cyberpunk 2077 for shit lol.

Switch 2 real world performance is 5 times more powerful than that device you mentioned above.

 

[Mozza]

While this is true, MKW is likely to have its own DLC later.

Possibly but as long as there is value to it that's fine. Although at this point we simply do not know.

 

[Vaquilla]

The idea that the mainstream audience, who has been paying a $500 standard for consoles for the last four and half years suddenly can't afford a $450 system is just silly.

 

[MMaRsu]

You mean Nintendo fans who cannot help themselves. The mass audience will not go along with their bs prices.

 

[BlackTron]

It will be fine. Nothing to see here.

I think that Switch 2 will be fine. The jury is out whether it will be as successful as Switch 1. I think most of us predict the answer is: probably not. Reasons:

Switch 1 is already fulfilling the need for many people (it plays Mario Kart)
Switch 2 is more expensive
Switch 2 doesn't need to sell as many, because Switch 1 exists and is still generating cash (unlike Wii U when Switch showed up).
Switch 2 doesn't have COVID.

Strong launches are easy. Dreamcast and WiiU had fine launches. This launch only proves that it wasn't a steaming failure out the gate. This isn't a prediction it will fail, just realism about what the launch means.

My prediction is that they are going to soak up any rabid demand for the console within the first year. It will continue to sell and be "fine" but not the sensation that Switch 1 was. Many people will either never upgrade, or only do it when a critical mass of games they really want hit. It will behave in a way that they would have called a "success" if it came after Wii U, but a little weak in the shadow of Switch 1. I doubt it will ever be hard to get one after the launch window. Let's see! (instead of dismissing all discourse, lol)

 

[MMaRsu]

Or maybe, they finally solved the Scalper problem.

They were scalping games?

Also what scalper problem

 

[BlackTron]

Possibly but as long as there is value to it that's fine. Although at this point we simply do not know.

The point is that if other games have DLC it doesn't mean they reach cost parity with Kart because Kart is likely to have its own DLC.

So I feel like it'd be better to stick with "the value is there" because going with "the value is actually the same" is destined to fall apart.

 

[Mozza]

The point is that if other games have DLC it doesn't mean they reach cost parity with Kart because Kart is likely to have its own DLC.

So I feel like it'd be better to stick with "the value is there" because going with "the value is actually the same" is destined to fall apart.

Comparing things directly is pointless anyway. Nintendo feel this game in particular is worth $80. I am guessing everybody thinks it should be $70 as a base game. Now the obvious answer for people is to buy the digital version at $70 or the bundle which gives you the game of even less. And this is assuming there will not be places selling for slightly less than suggested retail.

The way some are going on you would think every game was $80....

 

[Mozza]

I think that Switch 2 will be fine. The jury is out whether it will be as successful as Switch 1. I think most of us predict the answer is: probably not. Reasons:

Switch 1 is already fulfilling the need for many people (it plays Mario Kart)
Switch 2 is more expensive
Switch 2 doesn't need to sell as many, because Switch 1 exists and is still generating cash (unlike Wii U when Switch showed up).
Switch 2 doesn't have COVID.

Strong launches are easy. Dreamcast and WiiU had fine launches. This launch only proves that it wasn't a steaming failure out the gate. This isn't a prediction it will fail, just realism about what the launch means.

My prediction is that they are going to soak up any rabid demand for the console within the first year. It will continue to sell and be "fine" but not the sensation that Switch 1 was. Many people will either never upgrade, or only do it when a critical mass of games they really want hit. It will behave in a way that they would have called a "success" if it came after Wii U, but a little weak in the shadow of Switch 1. I doubt it will ever be hard to get one after the launch window. Let's see! (instead of dismissing all discourse, lol)

I am not dismissing anything. I just simply do not agree. The Switch 2 will be fine.

 

[Baemono]

Switch 2 doesn't have COVID.

Covid bump is like at super max 8 million+ sales if I am being super generous, not 60 million

 

[Mozza]

Covid bump is like at super max 8 million+ sales if I am being super generous, not 60 million

I feel the Switch 2 will get off to a better start as well.

 

[seb85]

Because it's Nintendo

There is no alternative from other manufacturer that provide the same type of games

Sony and Microsoft did that and failed , people didn't buy their consoles

Sony with the 600$ PS3 , 800$ PS5 and 350$ psvita

Microsoft with the 500$ Xbox one

 

[BlackTron]

I am not dismissing anything. I just simply do not agree. The Switch 2 will be fine.

"Nothing to see here" isn't a dismissal? Fanboy glasses are blinding your reason, you can't help but get defensive every time lol.

 

[BlackTron]

Covid bump is like at super max 8 million+ sales if I am being super generous, not 60 million

Right, an event that boosted sales by 8 million not present for Switch 2 which therefore belongs on a list of reasons 2 will struggle to reach the sales heights of 1.

 

[Vaquilla]

Right, an event that boosted sales by 8 million not present for Switch 2 which therefore belongs on a list of reasons 2 will struggle to reach the sales heights of 1.

Don't jinx it. We have no idea what kind of events could transpire over the Switch 2's life.

 

[Joramun]

lol what?

Within the tech realm

Apple, Nvidia and Sony proved that years ago.

 

[Woopah]

For both Sony and Nintendo it's getting harder and harder to generate growth through increasing the total number of users.

The easier route to growth is to increase the amount of spend per user.

History shows us that the DS was on the verge of being a catastrophe, in the wake of the PSP. The machine wasn't doing too well after its first couple months after launch. It was the release of the "non games", New Super Mario Bros., and the DS lite that soft rebooted its image to the public and turned the ship completely around. Nintendo was bragging about 3DS out pacing DS when the 3DS launched, but some of us were already saying the 3D isn't doing it, the momentum is stale, and the machine is going to fall behind DS in due time (which it eventually did). While PR was putting that spin on, it didn't take long for the 3DS to see a massive price cut that summer after its March launch. The N brass knew things weren't off to the start they had hoped for.

In both cases, I argue the software was key to making a call for how the system's would do. Software ascended the DS from the pits into the stars, and software did help the 3DS rebound as well, but it never found the crazy momentum the original DS had.

I could go on and on about Wii and Wii U. The philosophies between the two were wildly different, and it was easy to see, with that cheap looking 2D Mario game releasing mere months after another cheap 2D Mario game on 3DS, that the system with the largest pack-in controller would look pointless for the Wii audience to upgrade to, and that the thing would see its momentum crash early. Iwata hoped Super Mario 3D World would help the thing rebound, but it didn't happen. Interestingly, Wii U did see a bit of a momentum shift in Japan after Splatoon came out (would become a pillar franchise on Switch). Mario Kart 8 was the best selling game on Wii U. I think Mario Kart sales are tethered to Nintendo's consoles. If their machines sell well, Mario Kart sells well, as that's the game to always have in the collection. But I don't see Mario Kart quite as a system seller, so it'll be interesting to see the response to Mario Kart World after June 5th. The camera is the gimmick I'm curious to see how the market reacts to. It could be a wash, or the next big thing. Mario Kart World, plus old games like Mario Party Jamboree, and (F-Zero GX?) others are using it.

The main idea of the camera is just for people to chat while gaming together. It actually being integrated intoa game like it is in Mario Party will be pretty rare I feel.

Unpopular opinion and all but it still baffles my mind how Nintendos games can even be considered system sellers. To me most of them are mediocre at best, i just don't get it. I get that children like games like Kirby and MK but come on, most customers are adults and they play what? What percentage of their users are families with children?

The appeal comes from a range of games with wide appeal.

For example, if a family gets a Switch it means the Mum can play Animal Crossing and Ring Fit, the Dad can play BOTW and MH Rise, the children can play Pokémon and Minecraft, and they can all play Mario Kart together.

Of course there are also Switches that only get used by adults, or only get used by children.

 

[DeltaPolarBear]

Because it's Nintendo

There is no alternative from other manufacturer that provide the same type of games

Sony and Microsoft did that and failed , people didn't buy their consoles

Sony with the 600$ PS3 , 800$ PS5 and 350$ psvita

Microsoft with the 500$ Xbox one

The equivalent of Giffen goods is what Nintendo products are. The only alternative to Nintendo games is to not play Nintendo games. There is no real substitute. People are upset at the price not because they won't pay, but because they will. If they are not willing to pay they wouldn't complain at all, they will just walk away.

 

[schaft0620]

There is nothing wrong with the console price, and the fact that people are freaking out over the console price is de-legitimizing the issue of $80 remakes from previous gens and $80 games in general.

 

[Hideous Snake]

Not only Switch 2, gaming in general already proved that. People should stop thinking that the internet and forums actually represents the majority because we don't.

 

[Mozza]

"Nothing to see here" isn't a dismissal? Fanboy glasses are blinding your reason, you can't help but get defensive every time lol.

Not at all. I would say it on any thread about any console moaning about it's price. As it's always core hobby gamers on niche internet sites. And YouTubers with very few subscribers or views complaining. The masses simply do not care.

 

[apple_of_enlightenment]

Older people tend to complain about price. Young people are immune from the psychology of inflation.

 

[Heimdall_Xtreme]

I like Nintendo games.

I'm an Adult.

I have money.

Yeah, I'm fine paying up for some new and fun Nintendo games!...and I'm from a third world country where the official price for the MK bundle is 730 USD.

Country?

 

[Ulysses 31]

Four years give or take.

I'll wait for the MicroLED edition.

 

[apple_of_enlightenment]

Every Mario Kart launch price adjusted for inflation:

https://gamerant.com/mario-kart-game-launch-price-adjusted-inflation-difference-increase/

Mario Kart 8 $80.46
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe $78.28
Mario Kart World $79.99

Conclusion: there is no price increase

 

[Mozza]

I'll wait for the MicroLED edition.

I wonder what LCD tech the new screen uses?. Because if it's HDR it must be either QLED or Micro LED.

 

[Spyxos]

$499 switch 2? $80 game? In this economy? Should be a problem but consumers show time and time again that they are willing to pay up.

Don't ask me why, but the reality is a small minority may complain but people don't speak with their wallets. Or rather they DO speak with their wallets and what they are saying is: charge me more plz, I'm ready to pay whatever it takes

The statement comes far too early. Wait 6 months or preferably 1 year.

 

[BlackTron]

Not at all. I would say it on any thread about any console moaning about it's price. As it's always core hobby gamers on niche internet sites. And YouTubers with very few subscribers or views complaining. The masses simply do not care.

You have problems lol.

 

[MMaRsu]

The problem isnt the price if the device itself in most places but 90€ games? Lol

 

[Mozza]

You have problems lol.

I think the problems are your own. You seem hell bent in making this some sort of console war issue when it's not. Most people simply do not care about any of this or the fact it's being discussed on niche internet forums in the first place.

But as usual it's people in bubbles speaking to people in similar bubbles.

 

[Mozza]

The problem isnt the price if the device itself in most places but 90€ games? Lol

One game or games?

 

[BlackTron]

I think the problems are your own. You seem hell bent in making this some sort of console war issue when it's not. Most people simply do not care about any of this or the fact it's being discussed on niche internet forums in the first place.

But as usual it's people in bubbles speaking to people in similar bubbles.

You seemed to agree with me when I said there was a discussion to be had instead of dismissing it outright. Then you started moving the goalposts of what "dismissed" means, according to you it's not consistent with "nothing to see here". Since I pointed that out, now I have a problem and am bent on console warring. Where was the warring? The post you left a like on?

 

[Mozza]

You seemed to agree with me when I said there was a discussion to be had instead of dismissing it outright. Then you started moving the goalposts of what "dismissed" means, according to you it's not consistent with "nothing to see here". Since I pointed that out, now I have a problem and am bent on console warring. Where was the warring? The post you left a like on?

This can be discussed as much as you and others want. But it does not change the fact there is no proof of any widespread issues as a result of any of this. And that is my opinion on this. No biggie either way if you agree or not. You suggested I was a fanboy which is simply not the case. Plus I never said you were warring I simply said you seemed to making this more of an issue than it had to be.