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The Marathon (Full Release) CCU Prediction Thread...

Predict Marathons CCU high, as well as it's S2 retention performance...

  • S1 will hit around a 50k CCU high, with a > -20% S2 drop (poor retention)

  • S1 will hit around a 50k CCU high, with a < -20% S2 drop (good retention)

  • S1 will hit around a 100k CCU high, with a > -20% S2 drop (poor retention)

  • S1 will hit around a 100k CCU high, with a < -20% S2 drop (good retention)

  • S1 will hit around a 150k CCU high, with a > -20% S2 drop (poor retention)

  • S1 will hit around a 150k CCU high, with a < -20% S2 drop (good retention)

  • S1 will hit around a 200k CCU high, with a > -20% S2 drop (poor retention)

  • S1 will hit around a 200k CCU high, with < -20% S2 drop (good retention)

  • S1 will hit around a 250k CCU high, with > -20% S2 drop (poor retention)

  • S1 will hit around a 250k CCU high, with < -20% S2 drop (good retention)

Results are only viewable after voting.
Men_in_Boxes

Men_in_Boxes

Snake Oil Salesman
The True Believers, The DOAers & The Everyone in Betweeners

giphy.gif


Everyone gets one vote. You can not change your vote or see anyone else's vote, so take your time and make sure you understand the poll before you pull the trigger. Poll ends in 48 hours.

Here is the Marathon Server Slam popularity and player retention chart...


Battlefield 6 released on October 10th, 2025 and had a 656k peak on Steam. Three months later, it had a 121k peak on Steam, an 81% drop. Battlefield 6 was wildly successful but is generally thought of as having poor player retention.

I'm setting Marathons barometer at -20% after 3 months. So if Marathon peaks at 100k in S1 and 81k in S2, that would generally be considered a good performance metric. Obviously this is debatable, and could be wrong, but I had to pick a % I thought was reasonable.

9c601249676d9d26862a21c5b2089f90.gif


Choose the closest that applies. Thread will get bumped early in Season 2 so that we may adjust our barometers moving forward.
 
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  • S1 will hit around a 50k CCU high, with a > -20% S2 drop (poor retention)
  • S1 will hit around a 50k CCU high, with a < -20% S2 drop (good retention)
  • S1 will hit around a 100k CCU high, with a > -20% S2 drop (poor retention)
  • S1 will hit around a 100k CCU high, with a < -20% S2 drop (good retention)
  • S1 will hit around a 150k CCU high, with a > -20% S2 drop (poor retention)
  • S1 will hit around a 150k CCU high, with a < -20% S2 drop (good retention)
  • S1 will hit around a 200k CCU high, with a > -20% S2 drop (poor retention)
  • S1 will hit around a 200k CCU high, with < -20% S2 drop (good retention)
  • S1 will hit around a 250k CCU high, with > -20% S2 drop (poor retention)
  • S1 will hit around a 250k CCU high, with < -20% S2 drop (good retention)
Everything is -20%? what is the difference between poor and good retention? LOL


EDIT: lol nm missed the the greater than / less than
 
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Guardian Monkey said:
  • S1 will hit around a 50k CCU high, with a > -20% S2 drop (poor retention)
  • S1 will hit around a 50k CCU high, with a < -20% S2 drop (good retention)
  • S1 will hit around a 100k CCU high, with a > -20% S2 drop (poor retention)
  • S1 will hit around a 100k CCU high, with a < -20% S2 drop (good retention)
  • S1 will hit around a 150k CCU high, with a > -20% S2 drop (poor retention)
  • S1 will hit around a 150k CCU high, with a < -20% S2 drop (good retention)
  • S1 will hit around a 200k CCU high, with a > -20% S2 drop (poor retention)
  • S1 will hit around a 200k CCU high, with < -20% S2 drop (good retention)
  • S1 will hit around a 250k CCU high, with > -20% S2 drop (poor retention)
  • S1 will hit around a 250k CCU high, with < -20% S2 drop (good retention)
Everything is -20%? what is the difference between poor and good retention? LOL
Click to expand...
> -20% more than 20% drop
< -20% less than 20% drop
 
Guardian Monkey said:
  • S1 will hit around a 50k CCU high, with a > -20% S2 drop (poor retention)
  • S1 will hit around a 50k CCU high, with a < -20% S2 drop (good retention)
  • S1 will hit around a 100k CCU high, with a > -20% S2 drop (poor retention)
  • S1 will hit around a 100k CCU high, with a < -20% S2 drop (good retention)
  • S1 will hit around a 150k CCU high, with a > -20% S2 drop (poor retention)
  • S1 will hit around a 150k CCU high, with a < -20% S2 drop (good retention)
  • S1 will hit around a 200k CCU high, with a > -20% S2 drop (poor retention)
  • S1 will hit around a 200k CCU high, with < -20% S2 drop (good retention)
  • S1 will hit around a 250k CCU high, with > -20% S2 drop (poor retention)
  • S1 will hit around a 250k CCU high, with < -20% S2 drop (good retention)
Everything is -20%? what is the difference between poor and good retention? LOL


EDIT: lol nm missed the the greater than / less than
Click to expand...
There is a greater than or less than sign before it. <20% drop is good retention (should be flipped though considering we're talking about negative numbers)
 
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You're not asking the real questions:

You think this game will make it to season 2?
How long before it goes F2P?
Will they refund the purchase money if it does go F2P?
Will Men_in_Boxes Men_in_Boxes do the post-mortem thread in 90 days titled "Marathon: what went wrong?"
 
Kacho said:
Are Arc Raiders players expected to drop that and pick up Marathon?
Click to expand...
Me and some of my friends dropped it over a month ago. Some of us will be playing Marathon. I'd imagine CCU will go from 50-100k on release and to a 150-250k within first month. Marathon has way more depth than ARC Raiders and that will move the needle quite a bit, when people see it. Many casuals will stick with ARC Raiders, cause it's their comfort zone.

ARC Raiders = Fortnite
Marathon = Apex Legends
 
I cannot vote in that poll.

I have said DOA from the first trailer. I still think it won't last, but they have rehabbed some of their image.

If you like the game I hope it sticks around for you. Bungie can make a good shooter, But I don't want Live service games. If they did a Single player Destiny game that would be cool.
 
Men_in_Boxes said:
The True Believers, The DOAers & The Everyone in Betweeners

giphy.gif


Everyone gets one vote. You can not change your vote or see anyone else's vote, so take your time and make sure you understand the poll before you pull the trigger. Poll ends in 48 hours.

Here is the Marathon Server Slam popularity and player retention chart...


Battlefield 6 released on October 10th, 2025 and had a 656k peak on Steam. Three months later, it had a 121k peak on Steam, an 81% drop. Battlefield 6 was wildly successful but is generally thought of as having poor player retention.

I'm setting Marathons barometer at -20% after 3 months. So if Marathon peaks at 100k in S1 and 81k in S2, that would generally be considered a good performance metric. Obviously this is debatable, and could be wrong, but I had to pick a % I thought was reasonable.

9c601249676d9d26862a21c5b2089f90.gif


Choose the closest that applies. Thread will get bumped early in Season 2 so that we may adjust our barometers moving forward.
Click to expand...
Are we talking about total CCU or just Steam numbers?
 
I'm betting 50 thousand Concordians.

But on a serious note, hopefully people who like this enjoy it(not me though, I honestly find the art direction of this game disgusting/vomit inducing). But my take is similar to AJUMP23 AJUMP23 , I don't like seeing things like this being a sucess specifically because I don't like this route Sony is taking with their games. And this obviously will result in more studios to pay the price or being forced to do this GaaS slop trend.
 
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I liked what I played, but maybe not enough to spend $40 on it right now.

Seeing it only crossed 100k on the first day of server slam, I'm not confident it'll do so as a paid title, but I could be wrong.

My assumption was a decent portion of the server slam player base wouldn't buy the full title. I'm going with option 2. The 50k with decent retention for season 2, because I think those who will buy it on release will probably stick with it a while.
 
Somewhere around 80k at launch

I do believe it will find its audience at a much lower concurrent but the amount of copies this game needs to sale for it to be a success is out of reach
 
Honestly Marathon's launch performance is the wrong thing to be concerned about. It will probably do okay by normal standards, and very poor by "Sony paid 4 billion dollars for Bungie" standards. The real thing people are forgetting is that Bungie is a god awful studio that does not give a shit about you and will drive this game into the ground.

Anyone who played Destiny for any significant period of time should know this. They are probably one of the most inefficient studios in the industry when it comes to dev spend vs content output. They somehow had millions of Destiny players paying them full retail AAA title price a year for an expansion + seasonal pass only to constantly recycle content and under deliver at every turn. There was a 2+ year window where they straight up told the community "Ohh hey yeah we don't really have the resources to make 1 PvP map this year" despite charging people for their full AAA priced expansion. They had the fucking nerve to say this after "vaulting" 11 PvP maps at the end of year 3. They have proven they don't give a shit about taking content away from you, even if you've paid for it.

You want responsive devs and frequent balance patches to address the meta in a timely manner? Get fucked. You'll get a quarterly tweak if you're lucky. Maybe a larger balance pass half way between annual expansions. That broken gun ruining PvP? Yeah that's going to stay like that for another 4 months till we do anything about it. When they do finally get around to doing something they're either going to nerf the weapon into the stone age or barely touch it so it can continue to terrorize the community for another 4 months. During the great collapse of Destiny in the last few years they were barely touching PvP at all. The PvP community was desperate for any level of attention or dev time.

Let's also not forget that Bungie has to sustain it's wildly inefficient stupid operation off the back of Marathon and convince Sony that they're not just better off putting them down behind the shed. Destiny 2 is swirling the toilet because of mismanagement / neglect and is doing less than 25% of it's normal numbers at peak times like expansion release ( https://steamdb.info/app/1085660/charts/#max ). So Marathon has to keep the lights on and start pumping in revenue. That AA launch price is not going to cover it. I would not be surprised if marathon has paid content expansions or other abusive monetization very quickly post launch.

This game will 100% die by Bungie's hands, regardless of launch.
 
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KyoZz said:
High CCU at first because it's Bungie, but after a few weeks...

Die Season 3 GIF by The Office
Click to expand...
Given it's decent at first sever slam numbers but a big drop off I expect 150,000 is about all they'll get (I did think 200,000 for launch but after the lukewarm reception to the slam it seems unlikely) and without some serious changes it could drop below 100,000 after the first week.
 
Pop said:
Somewhere around 80k at launch

I do believe it will find its audience at a much lower concurrent but the amount of copies this game needs to sale for it to be a success is out of reach
Click to expand...
It will double that but if by some reason it only does that, it's in big trouble.
 
Saber said:
I'm betting 50 thousand Concordians.

But on a serious note, hopefully people who like this enjoy it(not me though, I honestly find the art direction of this game disgusting/vomit inducing). But my take is similar to AJUMP23 AJUMP23 , I don't like seeing things like this being a sucess specifically because I don't like this route Sony is taking with their games. And this obviously will result in more studios to pay the price or being forced to do this GaaS slop trend.
Click to expand...
I think that is my biggest overall thing as well I don't think it's good for the industry, less fortnite, apex etc slop the better they are games sure but they follow a mindset that is so uncreative and requires so little depth and when devs try to just copy this shit it's never good.
 
I picked the wrong <-20% on mine even though OP was kind enough to put hints in the parenthesis, because I am partially retarded.
 
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