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[Holammer]

How many copies has Fortnite sold? Zero. People who gauge GAAS games success based off of $ sales don't know what they are talking about

Hold up! Actually, Fortnite started as a paid co-op Tower Defense game. They had an early access founder's pack, standard & ultimate editions, it was a freaking failure, but it did sell copies.
But then they retooled/added a Battle Royale mode when PUBG blew up, rest is history.

There's an alternate universe out there where Orcs Must Die managed to cash in on the PUBG hype instead of Fortnite.

 

[Branded]

Only one more day until crow will be eaten. If it's me, it's me. I'll walk the walk of shame for believing in a game.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

I was watching videos to see what people were thinking of it. It's highly polarizing, in a niche genre, with an art style that will turn off a huge chunk of people interested in it.

Not sure what the problem is, to discuss this in a ccu prediction thread you started.

My God if you f**kers call this genre niche one more time...

Nothing wrong with you posting here. I just think watching Marathon is very different than playing Marathon. Like...I think the gap between those two things might be the largest in all of gaming.

 

[diffusionx]

My God if you f**kers call this genre niche one more time...

Nothing wrong with you posting here. I just think watching Marathon is very different than playing Marathon. Like...I think the gap between those two things might be the largest in all of gaming.

Again, I am not making a judgement on the game itself. I was watching videos to see what people thought of it, and it was highly polarizing. Some hate it, some love it, and everything in between. It's a very polarizing game in every way and that doesn't usually translate to big success. Hence, why I said what I said.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Again, I am not making a judgement on the game itself. I was watching videos to see what people thought of it, and it was highly polarizing. Some hate it, some love it, and everything in between. It's a very polarizing game in every way and that doesn't usually translate to big success. Hence, why I said what I said.

 

[yurinka]

I think around 150K, with a bigger drop than 20% for season 2.

Because seasons are going to be around 3 months, and all games drop way more than 20% of their launch CCU peak 3 months after launch.

Each new big content drop (as I assume will be a new season release) will cause a CCU peak as usual in GaaS, but outside that peak(s) of the S2 contents I think during S2 may be at aprox. 80K CCU daily peaks.

To lose only 20% 3 months after launch is an ultra hit retention almost never seen.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

diffusionx , do you think the polarizing (specifically negative) impressions are coming from PvP players?

I feel like the majority of negative Marathon videos out there are coming from the anti GAAS rage baiters or PvE centric players.

 

[Zacfoldor]

My God if you f**kers call this genre niche one more time...

Nothing wrong with you posting here. I just think watching Marathon is very different than playing Marathon. Like...I think the gap between those two things might be the largest in all of gaming.

Ser, I'll have you know that I feel this way about every game that I love and other people don't.

Your tilting at windmills. Compose yourself for the battles to come.

 

[Kikorin]

Peak: 175.000

After 1 month: 85.000

After 1yr: 37.000 fluctuating

 

[diffusionx]

diffusionx , do you think the polarizing (specifically negative) impressions are coming from PvP players?

I feel like the majority of negative Marathon videos out there are coming from the anti GAAS rage baiters or PvE centric players.

This is why I mentioned the art style. Some love it some hate it. So maybe even a PvP centric player may not like the game because of the art and stuff.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

I think around 150K, with a bigger drop than 20% for season 2.

Because seasons are going to be around 3 months, and all games drop way more than 20% of their launch CCU peak 3 months after launch.

Each new big content drop (as I assume will be a new season release) will cause a CCU peak as usual in GaaS, but outside that peak(s) of the S2 contents I think during S2 may be at aprox. 80K CCU daily peaks.

To lose only 20% 3 months after launch is an ultra hit retention almost never seen.

You are right about this. ARC Raiders had a -22% drop from it's November peak to its February peak. Not sure why I landed on 20%. I guess there's still a chance because I think Marathon will have better long term hooks than ARC Raiders, but I'm not sure how many it will filter with its (much) more difficult on-boarding period.

 

[Spukc]

Inb4 steam hides CCU stuff

 

[BigBeauford]

I dunno man. I was able to watch 20 minutes of footage before the ARC raiders full release, and knew immediately this was was going to be a hit. I've really tried with Marathon because I really like Extraction shooters. Im just not seeing it.

 

[Nydius]

Somewhere less than 100k, but close, within the launch month seems about right to me. I doubt it'll reach the same level as the server slam since that was free. The sales position on Steam seems to indicate it's going to do well at launch, undoubtedly thanks to the Bungie name.

But retention will be awful because Bungie has proven over the last 12 years of Destiny PvP (and PvPvE Gambit) that they are horrible when it comes to balancing and content management.