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The Marathon (Full Release) CCU Prediction Thread...

Predict Marathons CCU high, as well as it's S2 retention performance...

  • S1 will hit around a 50k CCU high, with a > -20% S2 drop (poor retention)

    Votes: 29 16.0%

  • S1 will hit around a 50k CCU high, with a < -20% S2 drop (good retention)

    Votes: 14 7.7%

  • S1 will hit around a 100k CCU high, with a > -20% S2 drop (poor retention)

    Votes: 61 33.7%

  • S1 will hit around a 100k CCU high, with a < -20% S2 drop (good retention)

    Votes: 14 7.7%

  • S1 will hit around a 150k CCU high, with a > -20% S2 drop (poor retention)

    Votes: 29 16.0%

  • S1 will hit around a 150k CCU high, with a < -20% S2 drop (good retention)

    Votes: 10 5.5%

  • S1 will hit around a 200k CCU high, with a > -20% S2 drop (poor retention)

    Votes: 6 3.3%

  • S1 will hit around a 200k CCU high, with < -20% S2 drop (good retention)

    Votes: 2 1.1%

  • S1 will hit around a 250k CCU high, with > -20% S2 drop (poor retention)

    Votes: 6 3.3%

  • S1 will hit around a 250k CCU high, with < -20% S2 drop (good retention)

    Votes: 10 5.5%
  • Total voters
    181
  • Poll closed .
coachmcguirk91 said:
How many copies has Fortnite sold? Zero. People who gauge GAAS games success based off of $ sales don't know what they are talking about
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Hold up! Actually, Fortnite started as a paid co-op Tower Defense game. They had an early access founder's pack, standard & ultimate editions, it was a freaking failure, but it did sell copies.
But then they retooled/added a Battle Royale mode when PUBG blew up, rest is history.

There's an alternate universe out there where Orcs Must Die managed to cash in on the PUBG hype instead of Fortnite.
 
diffusionx said:
I was watching videos to see what people were thinking of it. It's highly polarizing, in a niche genre, with an art style that will turn off a huge chunk of people interested in it.

Not sure what the problem is, to discuss this in a ccu prediction thread you started.
Click to expand...

My God if you f**kers call this genre niche one more time...

giphy.gif


Nothing wrong with you posting here. I just think watching Marathon is very different than playing Marathon. Like...I think the gap between those two things might be the largest in all of gaming.
 
Men_in_Boxes said:
My God if you f**kers call this genre niche one more time...

giphy.gif


Nothing wrong with you posting here. I just think watching Marathon is very different than playing Marathon. Like...I think the gap between those two things might be the largest in all of gaming.
Click to expand...
Again, I am not making a judgement on the game itself. I was watching videos to see what people thought of it, and it was highly polarizing. Some hate it, some love it, and everything in between. It's a very polarizing game in every way and that doesn't usually translate to big success. Hence, why I said what I said.
 
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diffusionx said:
Again, I am not making a judgement on the game itself. I was watching videos to see what people thought of it, and it was highly polarizing. Some hate it, some love it, and everything in between. It's a very polarizing game in every way and that doesn't usually translate to big success. Hence, why I said what I said.
Click to expand...
judgeclaudefrollo-claudefrollo.gif
 
I think around 150K, with a bigger drop than 20% for season 2.

Because seasons are going to be around 3 months, and all games drop way more than 20% of their launch CCU peak 3 months after launch.

Each new big content drop (as I assume will be a new season release) will cause a CCU peak as usual in GaaS, but outside that peak(s) of the S2 contents I think during S2 may be at aprox. 80K CCU daily peaks.

To lose only 20% 3 months after launch is an ultra hit retention almost never seen.
 
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diffusionx diffusionx , do you think the polarizing (specifically negative) impressions are coming from PvP players?

I feel like the majority of negative Marathon videos out there are coming from the anti GAAS rage baiters or PvE centric players.
 
Men_in_Boxes said:
My God if you f**kers call this genre niche one more time...

giphy.gif


Nothing wrong with you posting here. I just think watching Marathon is very different than playing Marathon. Like...I think the gap between those two things might be the largest in all of gaming.
Click to expand...
Ser, I'll have you know that I feel this way about every game that I love and other people don't.
baelor-is-written-in-the-books-as-calm-and-peaceful-yet-v0-ahd1mlah4nig1.png

Your tilting at windmills. Compose yourself for the battles to come.
5eps35jrf79y.jpg
 
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Men_in_Boxes said:
diffusionx diffusionx , do you think the polarizing (specifically negative) impressions are coming from PvP players?

I feel like the majority of negative Marathon videos out there are coming from the anti GAAS rage baiters or PvE centric players.
Click to expand...
This is why I mentioned the art style. Some love it some hate it. So maybe even a PvP centric player may not like the game because of the art and stuff.
 
yurinka said:
I think around 150K, with a bigger drop than 20% for season 2.

Because seasons are going to be around 3 months, and all games drop way more than 20% of their launch CCU peak 3 months after launch.

Each new big content drop (as I assume will be a new season release) will cause a CCU peak as usual in GaaS, but outside that peak(s) of the S2 contents I think during S2 may be at aprox. 80K CCU daily peaks.

To lose only 20% 3 months after launch is an ultra hit retention almost never seen.
Click to expand...
You are right about this. ARC Raiders had a -22% drop from it's November peak to its February peak. Not sure why I landed on 20%. I guess there's still a chance because I think Marathon will have better long term hooks than ARC Raiders, but I'm not sure how many it will filter with its (much) more difficult on-boarding period.
 
I dunno man. I was able to watch 20 minutes of footage before the ARC raiders full release, and knew immediately this was was going to be a hit. I've really tried with Marathon because I really like Extraction shooters. Im just not seeing it.
 
Somewhere less than 100k, but close, within the launch month seems about right to me. I doubt it'll reach the same level as the server slam since that was free. The sales position on Steam seems to indicate it's going to do well at launch, undoubtedly thanks to the Bungie name.

But retention will be awful because Bungie has proven over the last 12 years of Destiny PvP (and PvPvE Gambit) that they are horrible when it comes to balancing and content management.
 
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Saber said:
Already putting a defeatist manuveur? At least wait until the game launchs to starting blaming people.
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I'm not even buying it. I've come to realise no extraction shooter can replicate my love for Tarkov.

I think it looks promising but it's not difficult to tell the sentiment bias on this game. Any top streamer playing it will be sqwarked at by 13 year olds calling them shills until they go back to playing arc (yawn).
 
Insanemaelstrom said:
I want this game to do good, especially because I am tired of grifters and this trend of hating a game before playing it.
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I believe (and this could not be you so don't take it personally) that there are people trying to paint the picture that people hating on this game, highguard, the new horizon game, etc - are just people that want to see everything fail, that they have more fun when games fail than actually playing games (basically trying to destroy their own hobby) but from my point of view and the trend I have seen on this forum, thats not the case at all if not the opposite - people "want" some type of games to fail because if they succeed the hobby itself might be at risk and then we continue the cycle for even longer. What cycle? the cycle of the big publishers chasing the money instead of making the games that people liked and bought (I remember MGS was a good example of something similar, when Konami was chasing the pachinko money, they would rather make like 20 pachinko spin-offs than a proper MGS sequel) and made this big publishers in the first place.

By the way, this only is a problem if you like games coming out from big/mid size publishers - because we can still get plenty of good games from smaller companies.
 
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Bungie/Marathon is a game with a high development cost, and I don't think sales will make it profitable on their own.

And I consider myself pro-Sony, but this game is a self-inflicted wound.
 
The_hunter said:
I think it looks cool. I mean I watch JoJo's bizzare adventure, they all have colored lips.
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My take on it is that jojo's source material is from the 80s when this kind of thing was kinda sparse. The reason I think this is different is because these days it's becoming part of a trend and it's aggressively being normalized by a clique of progressive activists who want to see gender and gender roles gone.
 
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