Psychoward
Banned
Kinda OT, but I'm registered for both LA and NJ, where should I vote in the general if I'm going Democrat?
The New Hampshire Primary |Feb 9|: Live Free or Die
- Thread starter A Human Becoming
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Box of Kittens
Banned
I'd consider NH to be purple. Obama got 52.0% to Romney's 46.4% last time. Nationally Obama got 51.1% to Romney's 47.2%. It also went for Bush in 2000.
Historically it was actually a deep red state for a long time. It was considered a huge deal when Clinton managed to win it in 1992.
eyeball_kid
Member
NPR gives more precise percentages, with all districts reporting now. Bernie is up 0.4% since last night. Trumped gained a bit, Jeb dropped a fraction, Christie dropped 0.3%. I believe Kasich was at 16 last night.
Code:
[B]Republicans[/B]
Donald Trump 100,360 35.3%
John Kasich 44,907 15.8%
Ted Cruz 33,189 11.7%
Jeb Bush 31,309 11.0%
Marco Rubio 30,030 10.6%
Chris Christie 21,068 7.4%
Carly Fiorina 11,705 4.1%
Ben Carson 6,509 2.3%
Jim Gilmore 133 0.0%
Other 4,898 1.7%
[B]Democrats[/B]
Bernie Sanders 151,573 60.4%
Hillary Clinton 95,242 38.0%
Other 4,147 1.7%My guess would be that Trump drummed together people who would usually not vote, while the other candidates made sure to get people who do, to prevent Trump. You can say what you want about that man, but he is making waves.
Box of Kittens
Banned
At the presidential level it shouldn't matter. Those states would only be competitive if the election overall is a blowout.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
WMUR was failing to update frequently last night so I started using CNN. Guess I'll switch back.
This is also good.
Psychoward
Banned
yeah that's what I assumed. NJ is a lock for blue and LA a lock for red, maybe vote LA just to hopefully show that the state isn't all Red? idk
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
In NH, generic R beats generic D by like 8 point margins. It's a naturally Republican state that represents the old New England elite Republicans that don't really exist any more in the Republican party, and detests the cultural conservative/evangelical Republicans. I think someone like Kasich could probably actually win it from a Democrat.
D
Deleted member 13876
Unconfirmed Member
exmachina64
Banned
People not registered with a political party crossing the aisle?
plagiarize
Banned
No sales tax. 'Live Free or Die' state motto.
It's a swing state that leans red, for sure.
benjipwns
Banned
How do independents cross the aisle?
40.6% of the state voted for Obama in 2012. More than 2008 actually.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
I met him during the 2012 NH Primary. Ponies!
Psychoward
Banned
Huh, that's surprising considering our Governor elections.
dave is ok
aztek is ok
NH is a very gun happy state. It's basically the south of the north. The liberal support comes from the big cities and college areas.
Ogrekiller
Member
Sure, did it hinder Nixon winning?
No. Ford came after and he was a Republican too, remember.
The GOP doesn't have their Nixon but they don't need to win in a landslide- all they need is 270, or less if they get Bloomberg to run.
D
Deleted member 13876
Unconfirmed Member
Looks like he received 500% more votes this year. If he continues this supreme momentum he might be a serious contender in upcoming election cycles.
plagiarize
Banned
There's a bunch of blue state that have GOP governors. It's a serious problem, as far as I'm concerned. MA where I live is about as blue as it gets, but three of the last five gubernatorial elections have gone to Republicans.
I say that even as someone who works in an area that benefits more from Republican governors generally.
Basileus777
Member
Blame Corzine's scandals for that. Christie ran as a Trenton outside against a corrupt governor. And then turned out to be as corrupt as any other NJ politician.
NJ is in no danger of going red in a Presidential election, the state's demographics are increasingly toxic to Republicans.
Edit: Oh, you meant LA.
Psychoward
Banned
I mean we finally got a Dem governor even though he's anti gun-control, anti-abortion, pro war on drugs, anti-marijuana legislation, outspoken Catholic, wants to establish English as the national language etc. etc.
AND he only won because the dude was running against someone who was caught for hiring prostitutes even though he ran on family values lol.
And Jindal was the governor before and who can forget "Vote for the Crook!"
nah I was referring to over 40% of LA voting blue. I thought it was much redder, I know NJ is one of the bluest states around and Corzine sucked lol.Basileus777 said:
I'm sorry for engaging in a discussion and then becoming totally waylaid by work. I didn't want to seem like I was blowing you off after a disagreement of opinion.
Bernie was saying that equal marriage rights for gay Americans is too divisive. I don't have to assign malicious intent to a statement to think it's poorly phrased. Similarly, I don't think he hates Planned Parenthood, but I do think it was a crass mistake to refer to an institution already under siege by conservatives as a part of the establishment after he has spent so much time suggesting that anything within the "establishment" will need to be dismantled and rebuilt.
He's a smart guy who seems to understand the power of language, but I do think he sometimes is rather flip and careless in his use of it. I don't think Bernie is hateful or evil just because I disagree with some of the things he says or his approach in instituting policy.
Neither Hillary or Bernie are the ideal candidate when it comes to gay rights. Hillary's record is clearly worse. Somehow this has led to Bernie being presented as a long time champion, actively involved in the fight for marriage equality. At best this is misleading and at worst it actively takes away from the work activists dedicated so much of their lives to.
Because yes, gay marriage was divisive nationally and impossible to push through congress. You know what else is going to be difficult to get through congress? Everything Bernie stands behind now. I find it frustrating and deceptive to suggest Sanders is a revolutionary on the front lines of political change when he is as slow to act as most (slower than some) when it comes to anything outside economic policy.
If the economy is the most important issue for you -- it is for many Democrats -- and you agree with Bernie's approach (I mostly don't), then obviously he is your ideal candidate. But I think it's disingenuous to pretend he is an overall perfect candidate who checks all the boxes, including active policy-based support for all minority groups.
Bernie was saying that equal marriage rights for gay Americans is too divisive. I don't have to assign malicious intent to a statement to think it's poorly phrased. Similarly, I don't think he hates Planned Parenthood, but I do think it was a crass mistake to refer to an institution already under siege by conservatives as a part of the establishment after he has spent so much time suggesting that anything within the "establishment" will need to be dismantled and rebuilt.
He's a smart guy who seems to understand the power of language, but I do think he sometimes is rather flip and careless in his use of it. I don't think Bernie is hateful or evil just because I disagree with some of the things he says or his approach in instituting policy.
Neither Hillary or Bernie are the ideal candidate when it comes to gay rights. Hillary's record is clearly worse. Somehow this has led to Bernie being presented as a long time champion, actively involved in the fight for marriage equality. At best this is misleading and at worst it actively takes away from the work activists dedicated so much of their lives to.
Because yes, gay marriage was divisive nationally and impossible to push through congress. You know what else is going to be difficult to get through congress? Everything Bernie stands behind now. I find it frustrating and deceptive to suggest Sanders is a revolutionary on the front lines of political change when he is as slow to act as most (slower than some) when it comes to anything outside economic policy.
If the economy is the most important issue for you -- it is for many Democrats -- and you agree with Bernie's approach (I mostly don't), then obviously he is your ideal candidate. But I think it's disingenuous to pretend he is an overall perfect candidate who checks all the boxes, including active policy-based support for all minority groups.
Prodigal Son
Member
RIP Carly Fiorina.
woooo
woooo
BoboBrazil
Member
Yes, my predictions are coming true. Now just need Carson to drop.
SoRuffShoNuff
Member
In open primaries often if one party race is considered a forgone conclusion people will vote in the closer contest. If Hillary continues to show a huge lead in Georgia I will vote for a republican.
Box of Kittens
Banned
40% is actually pretty red, particularly given that Obama won the election overall.
Are black voters saying she deserves the black vote or are they just supporting a candidate that has better shown themselves to be more electable in the general? Black voters turned her before Barack proved that he was electable by more than just the base. If and when Bernie shows he's more capable in the general we'll do the same. With society, congress, governorships, and state legislators as they are now we just don't have the privilege to gamble.
Here is an article that counters the narrative that black voters are jumping out of their shoes to support Hillary just because she's a Clinton. That it's more likely she's getting support because there's no better option. I can't find it but there was even another story on NPR where unfortunately some black voters aren't even motivated to show up because neither candidate is doing a good job inspiring and speaking to them about the racial issues we face today. We're living in a much different time than the 90s, people need to understand that before making assumptions about the black vote.
He is extreme from the perspective of a moderate voter in the general election. Hillary has been pulled more left because of him, more left than she would care for and has ever been before her run. That has been one of Bernie's main goals from the start.I love that Bernie is an extremist lol. He and Hillary are almost running an identical campaign. Not saying she isn't more electable mind you
Prodigal Son
Member
How meaningful are these supe delegates in the unlikely event that Bernie wins in most states?
plagiarize
Banned
I go environment, then gun control... so it's obvious which way I lean... but it should also be obvious that Hillary and Bernie are basically equivalent when it comes to the environment.
This argument about gay marriage is infuriating. When Hillary was for civil unions, that was a progressive view, even if other people held more progressive views. Long before it became a reality, she became more progressive on the issue and supported gay marriage. People paint it as a turn around or a flip flop, but it was a move from a mildly progressive view to a more progressive one.
It sure as shit wasn't a moderate view when she held it. Pragmatism isn't sexy, I know, but it seemed like she was for realistic change on the issue all along. I see no reason to think she is done fighting for further realistic change on such issues.
A lot of Sander's economic platform seems to be about punishing banks for exploiting bad laws 10 plus years or so ago. I don't see how that helps move us forwards, even as I understand why people want to see it. I want progress. Spending political capital to slap the wrists of people who got too greedy *within the law*. Eh.
Arthr2ShdsJcksn
Banned
So Bernie wins by a huge margin, but Hillary gets more delegates from NH?... fuck the system if true.
Is this true, or a bullshit article?
http://usuncut.com/news/the-dnc-superdelegates-just-screwed-over-bernie-sanders-and-spit-in-the-faces-of-voters/
Is this true, or a bullshit article?
http://usuncut.com/news/the-dnc-superdelegates-just-screwed-over-bernie-sanders-and-spit-in-the-faces-of-voters/
plagiarize
Banned
It's sort of true. Pledged super delegates don't actually vote until the convention and are totally free to change their minds between now and then should Bernie keep winning states, and it happens fairly regularly.
But it's unlikely to come down to that, based on current polls. Not impossible, but unlikely. Bernie seems plenty electable. I can't imagine the DNC would force him out if he's winning.
Superdelegates are usually there to push the clear front runner over the magic number once it's pretty clear who will eventually win, clearing the way for them to focus on the Presidential election as soon as possible.
benjipwns
Banned
And her daughter, from marijuana.
The number of states you win isn't how victory is determined in the primary.
Superdelegates make up about 1/6 of the total Democratic delegates. So if Hillary keeps getting most of the superdelegates' support then that means Bernie has to get significantly more delegates to beat her.
Superdelegates are guys within the DNC that vote however they want. Delegates are determined by how people vote in primaries and caucuses.
This is because of super delegates. In theory, they have tremendous power. In reality they will follow the will of the voting public. To do anything else would risk tearing the party to shreds.
Here's a recent article about it.
Not true. Most if not all will switch affiliation if he wins.
In reality the only ptactical purpose they serve at this point in an election is to make the establishment candidate's totals seem insurmountable and discourage opposition supporters from participating.
Prodigal Son
Member
Oh, I didn't realize they could switch affiliations.
plagiarize
Banned
I think of Super Delegates as the democratic party's way of calling an election before all the votes are in, basically.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
If a candidate wins the ordinary delegates, the superdelegates will back them. There is no way that they would try and overrule that. The last time it happened (1968), it almost destroyed the Democratic party and almost the entirely electoral constitution of the party had to be rewritten. Superdelegates just exist to give party officials a sense of gravitas and way to have a voice in proceedings by drawing more attention to their endorsement.
Black Republican
Member
savage
Arthr2ShdsJcksn
Banned
Ok, thanks for everyone clearing up the thing about the superdelegates. I always forget the primary rules, and still think the whole election process needs an overhaul, but I get it.
BrianRoyale
Member
Too many Republicans running this race, feels like they're making it easier for Trump to pull off a win.
Black Republican
Member
I wish I was a super delegate
imagine if Reddit were superdelegates!
Prodigal Son
Member
Give it a half century.
Prodigal Son
Member
What the fuck? Since last night? Holy shit.
EDIT: I'll donate some more right now I guess. Jesus.
we don't need no PAC let the motherfucker Bern
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