The NX Prediction / BSpeculation / Fanxiety Thread

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A bit out of the loop here - why is everyone melting down? Is it because that Emily lady was wrong about something again? She seems to be a real insider, but it would probably do her better to not leak info anymore. People just attack her.
 
I just read a rumour (possibly the most ridiculous one so far) that people who have registered a Wii U and 10 specific but unconfirmed games get 90% off the NX at launch.

I mean, it's plausible up until the 90% part.

Ambassador program again please. I still love all of the games I got from the 3DS one (even if it only came with me spending a bit too much on an overpriced handheld).
 
Never forget this day, our rugby ball never scored..

and the Nintendo Ninjas are so happy in their secret "hole"

tumblr_ndoesknWiq1qeie3mo1_500.gif
 
"No NX reveal this week."

"I respectfully disagree."

Maybe Emily never said there would be a reveal this week, but that response tweet implied it. And I think vagueness is one of the huge problems a lot of people have with Emily.

Well, specifics are hard to come by when working with things you hear about through a grapevine from people behind NDAs. Her bullet list of hardware specs will make for an interesting comparison to the final product. She clearly thought there would be major news this week, but her confidence level went down overnight. Shit happens. Life goes on. It's pretty dishonest to call her deceptive, because she clearly believes what she is saying and then backtracked in response to new information. That's just human. She isn't responsible for the hype train of delusional expectations people create for themselves based on her attempts to get what she's hearing out there.
 
Thanks for contributing to actual, interesting discussion! I love semiconductor fab talk, I actually understand it at basic levels!

A few questions:

The 16FFC process results in the same product, it's just a different process for fabricating it, right? So essentially the same as they would have with FF or FF+, but slightly cheaper?

Not quite. A chip fabricated on 16FFC will be smaller and consume a little bit less power than one fabricated on 16FF+. As an example, Chipworks estimates that the A10 would have been ~150mm² on 16FF+, whereas it's 125mm² on 16FFC.

I'm confused about what you're saying when you say it's already been used in shipping products but you don't think Nintendo could get any final samples for third party devkits. I guess you mean that Nintendo would have had to compete with Apple to even get a reasonable amount of samples for devkits?

It's not so much about wafer capacity (a few test wafers are a drop in the ocean compared to A10 production), but rather about it being a new process that neither Nvidia nor Nintendo have previously taped out a chip on. Learning to work around the kinks of the process can take more time, meaning the test wafers they have been producing have fewer good dies. The top priority of these is always going to be internal use (not just for dev kits but also things like power/thermal testing, which can require a large number of dies to get a good sample size), and it's only once they have all their internal needs covered that they'll start using engineering samples for third party dev kits. On a more mature process they would have been expected to reach high yields on test wafers much quicker, and hence have plenty of good engineering samples available for third party dev kit use.

This could be a reason why Emily Rogers is still adamant about active cooling, if final devkits still aren't ready. (Wait, that wasn't a question)

Yes, what we've heard about active cooling would definitely lead me to believe that they're still using TX1s in dev hardware (as I don't believe the final product will be actively cooled). If a large number of third parties had final hardware by this stage I'd have also expected some kind of leaks regarding it, but we haven't heard any.
 
Ok guys we have a new tweet from Nate Drake

Direct-Feed Games
Direct-Feed Games‏ @DirectFeedGames
@Mpl90 @InadaCelstice I still expect an announcement of some capacity this week. If nothing happens...I'll be surprised.
Oct 19, 2016, 8:35 AM
 
A bit out of the loop here - why is everyone melting down? Is it because that Emily lady was wrong about something again? She seems to be a real insider, but it would probably do her better to not leak info anymore. People just attack her.

She hasn't been wrong about anything she's said this week (yet anyway), people are just impatient as usual. She's said she's quite certain that NX news is coming this week, and hinted that it could actually be a reveal, not just an announcement of a reveal, then said she's not 100% sure about it.

So people being crazy as usual.

Edit:

Not quite. A chip fabricated on 16FFC will be smaller and consume a little bit less power than one fabricated on 16FF+. As an example, Chipworks estimates that the A10 would have been ~150mm² on 16FF+, whereas it's 125mm² on 16FFC.

It's not so much about wafer capacity (a few test wafers are a drop in the ocean compared to A10 production), but rather about it being a new process that neither Nvidia nor Nintendo have previously taped out a chip on. Learning to work around the kinks of the process can take more time, meaning the test wafers they have been producing have fewer good dies. The top priority of these is always going to be internal use (not just for dev kits but also things like power/thermal testing, which can require a large number of dies to get a good sample size), and it's only once they have all their internal needs covered that they'll start using engineering samples for third party dev kits. On a more mature process they would have been expected to reach high yields on test wafers much quicker, and hence have plenty of good engineering samples available for third party dev kit use.

Yes, what we've heard about active cooling would definitely lead me to believe that they're still using TX1s in dev hardware (as I don't believe the final product will be actively cooled). If a large number of third parties had final hardware by this stage I'd have also expected some kind of leaks regarding it, but we haven't heard any.

Cool, thanks for the responses! It would seem to be all good news then if they go 16FFC, besides the unofficial delay to March.
 
See?

Calm down. Wait till Friday. Then yell at him.
Exactly. People just chill man. We have two more days. Drake is saying he would be surprised if there was no
News.

Let's all be 😊

And this will get ignored. I should've posted a fake Emily tweet and watch 50 people quote me lol
 
If I remember correctly, the Eurogamer article that said NX was going to be a hybrid went up shortly after she said that it was going to be one (like the day after or later that day). I think she said something before Eurogamer with Mother 3 too. Whether either of these are actually true remains to be seen though.
The Mother 3 thing is a little more complicated than Eurogamer just jumping on what she said.

From what I can tell, she just hinted that it was happening by posting a thing from the game with the caption "2016 :)"

Liam Robertson then followed up on it saying he heard the same from the same source and added that he heard it was nearing the end of its localization.

Eurogamer jumped in on that, and added a more specific time for its release.

So, it is kiiiiinda funny to see people use Mother 3 as an example of her being wrong when she hasn't really been proven wrong about it. Eurogamer was.
 
Let's all just enjoy what are surely our last placid hours of unadulterated ignorant bliss before Nintendo shows us some crazy system that will shatter what most of their fans wanted and make us all wait even longer. :)
 
Well, specifics are hard to come by when working with things you hear about through a grapevine from people behind NDAs. Her bullet list of hardware specs will make for an interesting comparison to the final product. She clearly thought there would be major news this week, but her confidence level went down overnight. Shit happens. Life goes on. It's pretty dishonest to call her deceptive, because she clearly believes what she is saying and then backtracked in response to new information. That's just human. She isn't responsible for the hype train of delusional expectations people create for themselves based on her attempts to get what she's hearing out there.

Serious question.

If everyone and anyone uses that excuse that info and plans always change, then who can ever be held accountable? That's a pretty dangerous system. No one's ever wrong then.

Ok guys we have a new tweet from Nate Drake

See?

Calm down. Wait till Friday. Then yell at him.

giphy.gif


Weekend roast incoming ;)
 
I saw earlier in this thread, but there are too many posts to search now the famous resort to authority: "people working at Nintendo for surely know what to do and they don't need to answer to some internet fans" or something like that. Anybody who ever worked in a corporation with a bit of access to the higher ranks know how false this logic can be. Bad decision can be taken by anybody, at any level, no matter how qualified or experienced (s)he is, sometimes there are no decision to be taken except for bad ones, sometimes is just misjudging the efficiency of the company, the environment, the market etc. It's not like Nintendo hadn't had it's fair share of bad decisions in the very recent history. Starting with failed console launches and ending with greenlighting games that proved to be a total failure. So yeah, people working at Nintendo generally know how to do their job, but that doesn't make them faultless.

NX doesn't exists in a bubble. It's a console that was announced one year and half ago while in parallel the communication for the other Nintendo devices and especially Wii U has been reduced tremendously.

How many Nintendo Directs happened since Kimishima took over? How long did it take Nintendo to communicate about Miitomo and how mixed up that launch was? How did they communicate about the other mobile games beside announcing them and then delaying them.

That Super Mario Run announcement at Apple was really great, I give this to them. Let's see how they follow up on that, hopefully better than for Miitomo.

This is not only about NX. Maybe this whole perception of Nintendo talking much less to their customers (like current owners of Wii U for example) is not just fanboy fever. Or maybe Iwata's Nintendo taught us badly.
 
Most recent example is Star Fox Zero, where leaks pinned them as panicking over the controls because they knew it was going to get slagged over them but it was far too late to change things.

Also recent was Devil's Third, which, even if the XSEED thing didn't pan out, we still had info coming out about them struggling to figure out what to do with the game.

Those leaks were from Liam Robertson who is not considered a reliable source. Even if the information he comes across is from a legitimate source, he almost always dramatizes all of his rumours to create some sort of narrative. I wouldn't pay any mind to anything he says. His rumours even got banned here because of it (and Shikamaru Ninja epically called him out lol).

Like he said Star Fox Zero was going to have a meeting to delay the game or not on Friday, and the day after he reported that, a Direct was announced for that Thursday or something like that.
 
Nintendo is doing us all a favor. The closer to release date we learn about NX, the less time we have to wait from reveal to release. If you think your hype is high now, imagine the dizzying altitudes it will reach if they announce a game or system you want badly.
 
Ok I'm going to sleep now.

When I wake up I expect to see the announcement of the Direct. Nintendo please lets just get this over with already.
Really Nintendo?

Really?

Your really doing this?

All I ask is a simple reveal of a huge investment of $200-$300 system to be shown a bit more than FIVE FUCKING MONTHS BEFORE ITS RELEASED.

I need to plan my fucking spending schedule, but no, you can't even give me that. You have to be so fucking mean to me about me wanting to know what I'll be spending five months ahead of time.

I mean, what went wrong? I have supported you all my life. I have loved and cherished you, and when I like to plan exactly what I'm buying a year ahead, you can't even do that FIVE FUCKNG MONTHS AHEAD? ARE YOU FUCKING SERIOUS??

Well this is it. All games I was gonna get paid off. Now I save. Save and sacrifice so many games I'll miss for a imaginary system that supposedly exists, yet theres no evidence of it existing. I will still believe in you even if it costs me Persona 5.

So now Nintendo, faith has evolved to full blind faith. So show it...please?

Love you, WiiRevolution1.

*Goes back to playing Splatoon.*
 
Nintendo is doing us all a favor. The closer to release date we learn about NX, the less time we have to wait from reveal to release. If you think your hype is high now, imagine the dizzying altitudes it will reach if they announce a game or system you want badly.

I don't know, I've been through a lot of launches. I never felt fanxiety before getting the device. Only joy.
 
Really Nintendo?

Really?

Your really doing this?

All I ask is a simple reveal of a huge investment of $200-$300 system to be shown a bit more than FIVE FUCKING MONTHS BEFORE ITS RELEASED.

I need to plan my fucking spending schedule, but no, you can't even give me that. You have to be so fucking mean to me about me wanting to know what I'll be spending five months ahead of time.

I mean, what went wrong? I have supported you all my life. I have loved and cherished you, and when I like to plan exactly what I'm buying a year ahead, you can't even do that FIVE FUCKNG MONTHS AHEAD? ARE YOU FUCKING SERIOUS??

Well this is it. All games I was gonna get paid off. Now I save. Save and sacrifice so many games I'll miss for a imaginary system that supposedly exists, yet theres no evidence of it existing. I will still believe in you even if it costs me Persona 5.

So now Nntendo, faith has evolved to full blind faith. So show it...please?

Love you, WiiRevolution1.

*Goes back to playing Splatoon.*

I dunno anymore in this thread, but... this is a joke post....right?
 
It's 4 am and I've finally reached the last (current) post of page 102 and my eyes are burnt.

I can't believe I've read through everything for hours. I hope I don't have nightmares.

Goodnight (or morning, or evening).

EDIT: And it's page 103. Ugghh..
 
I guess Nintendo is in trouble about promoting Super Mario Run without too far of a disclosure of Super Mario Run NX counterpart, because this will easily indicate NX power and game mechanics. Confirming or not Super Mario Run NX is too much of a reveal about NX. Not to mention FireEmblem and Tom Nook mobile/NX games are as crude as a full NX reveal. Let them be 2017.
 
Serious question.

If everyone and anyone uses that excuse that info and plans always change, then who can ever be held accountable? That's a pretty dangerous system. No one's ever wrong then.

There's a huge difference between knowing info that was indeed accurate at one time and reporting on that and being wrong, and making up info or having a source which makes up info.

Emily has proven time and time again that she has sources who give her information that is at least accurate at one time. Therefore it's reasonable to give rumors she shares a bit more weight than other people's rumors.

I agree though that she could frame her rumors a bit better by saying they are rumors and are subject to changing.


But people really need to think about how this information comes to be before jumping down people's throats about being wrong all the time.
 
Really Nintendo?

Really?

Your really doing this?

All I ask is a simple reveal of a huge investment of $200-$300 system to be shown a bit more than FIVE FUCKING MONTHS BEFORE ITS RELEASED.

I need to plan my fucking spending schedule, but no, you can't even give me that. You have to be so fucking mean to me about me wanting to know what I'll be spending five months ahead of time.

I mean, what went wrong? I have supported you all my life. I have loved and cherished you, and when I like to plan exactly what I'm buying a year ahead, you can't even do that FIVE FUCKNG MONTHS AHEAD? ARE YOU FUCKING SERIOUS??

Well this is it. All games I was gonna get paid off. Now I save. Save and sacrifice so many games I'll miss for a imaginary system that supposedly exists, yet theres no evidence of it existing. I will still believe in you even if it costs me Persona 5.

So now Nintendo, faith has evolved to full blind faith. So show it...please?

Love you, WiiRevolution1.

*Goes back to playing Splatoon.*

giphy.gif
 
I can't imagine (or at least I really hope) that Emily truly cares what 50-100 users on NeaGaf think of her. It's not like "us jumping down her throat" is a threa tthat should keep her up at night. We're the ones making conversation out of her tweets, not the other way around.
 
Really Nintendo?

Really?

Your really doing this?

All I ask is a simple reveal of a huge investment of $200-$300 system to be shown a bit more than FIVE FUCKING MONTHS BEFORE ITS RELEASED.

I need to plan my fucking spending schedule, but no, you can't even give me that. You have to be so fucking mean to me about me wanting to know what I'll be spending five months ahead of time.

I mean, what went wrong? I have supported you all my life. I have loved and cherished you, and when I like to plan exactly what I'm buying a year ahead, you can't even do that FIVE FUCKNG MONTHS AHEAD? ARE YOU FUCKING SERIOUS??

Well this is it. All games I was gonna get paid off. Now I save. Save and sacrifice so many games I'll miss for a imaginary system that supposedly exists, yet theres no evidence of it existing. I will still believe in you even if it costs me Persona 5.

So now Nintendo, faith has evolved to full blind faith. So show it...please?

Love you, WiiRevolution1.

*Goes back to playing Splatoon.*

C'mon, you'll have to do better than that to get your post copypasta'd like the "Square Enix shot themselves in the foot" and "The Age of Sony is finally over" posts.
 
Really Nintendo?

Really?

Your really doing this?

All I ask is a simple reveal of a huge investment of $200-$300 system to be shown a bit more than FIVE FUCKING MONTHS BEFORE ITS RELEASED.

I need to plan my fucking spending schedule, but no, you can't even give me that. You have to be so fucking mean to me about me wanting to know what I'll be spending five months ahead of time.

I mean, what went wrong? I have supported you all my life. I have loved and cherished you, and when I like to plan exactly what I'm buying a year ahead, you can't even do that FIVE FUCKNG MONTHS AHEAD? ARE YOU FUCKING SERIOUS??

Well this is it. All games I was gonna get paid off. Now I save. Save and sacrifice so many games I'll miss for a imaginary system that supposedly exists, yet theres no evidence of it existing. I will still believe in you even if it costs me Persona 5.

So now Nintendo, faith has evolved to full blind faith. So show it...please?

Love you, WiiRevolution1.

*Goes back to playing Splatoon.*

This is SO getting copy/pasta'd later.
 
It's 4 am and I've finally reached the last (current) post of page 102 and my eyes are burnt.

I can't believe I've read through everything for hours. I hope I don't have nightmares.

Goodnight (or morning, or evening).

EDIT: And it's page 103. Ugghh..
why would you do that though? you only lose precious brain cells by reading through whole neogaf threads
 
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