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The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM

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Similar developments happening in Switzerland at the moment. As some of you might know, we narrowly voted for a people's initiative to unilaterally regulate immigration in 2014 and the government is required to put this decision into law by February 2017. It has always been obvious that this would mean an end to our bilateral agreements with the EU, because we would be violating the freedom of movement that is part of these agreements. It is also clear that the EU won't budge an inch on that matter - now, after the Brexit fiasco, less than ever, of course.

The probable outcome of all this is that, in order to meet the February 2017 deadline, our government will implement some bullshit legislation that doesn't change anything to the status quo and, thus, doesn't violate our treaties with the EU. What is interesting, however, is that, although our far right party (the guys responsible for the 2014 anti-immigration initiative) have threatened to respond with another initiative, this time with the aim to dissolve our bilateral treaties with the EU (i.e. do a "Swixit"), even they seem reluctant to really go through with this. Even they seem to come to the realization that this would be hopeless and also mean economic suicide for Switzerland.

In short, this Brexit debacle might turn out to be a blessing in disguise for pro-european politics. As long as the EU doesn't overplay its hand, doesn't exert too much direct pressure on the UK to get on with it, and manages to present itself as the sensible and sane party in that entire mess, Brexit could very well mean the beginning of a gradual retreat of euroscepticism throughout Europe (whether this is going to be a Europe with the UK in or out of it is, of course, up in the air; but that's a completely different point).

I don't disagree with you but it's likely the EU will put considerable pressure on the UK to get on with article 50 ASAP. Considering how many special privileges the UK already had and the further ones that were negotiated in February, many view it as a spoiled child throwing a temper tantrum which is damaging the entire continent. At least that's a common view among the people I work with in Germany at the moment.
 

EGM1966

Member
May is now 'the likeable one'. I never thought I'd hear those words, let alone agree with them. Truly, the end times are upon us.

As ever its all down to context. Compared to Gove and the others it's not hard to appear more sensible, trustworthy and likable.

But agreed - UK politics has literally collapsed under this vote. Quite fascinating if it wasn't directly affecting me.

TBH in hindsight rather than vote on EU we should have voted on our own internal confidence in our politicians and processes: it would have been better to "clean house" on our internal divisions first then decide about EU but in time honored tradition we've voted on one thing only o unleash repercussions that have huge impact elsewhere.
 

oti

Banned
As an outsider to UK politics I wouldn't call May "likeable" in any way, but she seems reasonable. Someone who grasps the situation and wants to move on. But having read some of her positions on stuff other than Brexit... yikes.
 
I think it's quite telling that Hofer (now again candidate in the re-run of the Austrian presidential election) from FPÖ has now back-pedaled on a possible EU referendum in Austria, saying they will call for it only in case Turkey (that's racist business as usual which seems to be OK in Austria for some reason) joins EU or US of E is pushed to be.

I think there are good reasons to keep out turkey at the moment if you look at how erdogan treats the press or the opposition though.
 

Daemul

Member
When Theresa fucking May is being described as likeable or reasonable, you know that things have gone really fucking wrong.
 
Similar developments happening in Switzerland at the moment. As some of you might know, we narrowly voted for a people's initiative to unilaterally regulate immigration in 2014 and the government is required to put this decision into law by February 2017. It has always been obvious that this would mean an end to our bilateral agreements with the EU, because we would be violating the freedom of movement that is part of these agreements. It is also clear that the EU won't budge an inch on that matter - now, after the Brexit fiasco, less than ever, of course.

The probable outcome of all this is that, in order to meet the February 2017 deadline, our government will implement some bullshit legislation that doesn't change anything to the status quo and, thus, doesn't violate our treaties with the EU. What is interesting, however, is that, although our far right party (the guys responsible for the 2014 anti-immigration initiative) have threatened to respond with another initiative, this time with the aim to dissolve our bilateral treaties with the EU (i.e. do a "Swixit"), even they seem reluctant to really go through with this. Even they seem to come to the realization that this would be hopeless and also mean economic suicide for Switzerland.

In short, this Brexit debacle might turn out to be a blessing in disguise for pro-european politics. As long as the EU doesn't overplay its hand, doesn't exert too much direct pressure on the UK to get on with it, and manages to present itself as the sensible and sane party in that entire mess, Brexit could very well mean the beginning of a gradual retreat of euroscepticism throughout Europe (whether this is going to be a Europe with the UK in or out of it is, of course, up in the air; but that's a completely different point).
well that and the fact that the SVP lost some importabt referendums like the deportation thing (any foreigner will kicked out if they have like two parking tickets within 10 years and without exception)
I don't disagree with you but it's likely the EU will put considerable pressure on the UK to get on with article 50 ASAP. Considering how many special privileges the UK already had and the further ones that were negotiated in February, many view it as a spoiled child throwing a temper tantrum which is damaging the entire continent. At least that's a common view among the people I work with in Germany at the moment.

I dont see any other way to look at this. Is there any other nation that did this? God forbid if Germany would ask for privileges in the union. People would cry out that germany is trying to conquer europe through the EU
Polish nationalists are completely oblivious to how many Poles are regarded in the UK. They applaud the Brits for taking a stand against 'immigrant vermin' completely missing the point that in this case it usually refers to Poles, not Muslim. It's an absolutely bizarre situation that boggles the mind. That's some really next-level denial.

Didnt the polish government issue a formal complaint this week?
 
I think there are good reasons to keep out turkey at the moment if you look at how erdogan treats the press or the opposition though.
The EU has a ton of requirements before a state can enter. As long as Erdogan keeps this up, they are not allowed in at all. And they still have a long way to go on other things as well. Just 1 of 35 requirements have been passed: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accession_of_Turkey_to_the_European_Union#Negotiation_progress

The talk about Turkey entering is just fear mongering at the moment. It's not going to happen anytime soon. And if they pass all the requirements, then the country has advanced a lot and it deserves at least to get seriously looked at for entering the EU.
 

oti

Banned
I dont see any other way to look at this. Is there any other nation that did this? God forbid if Germany would ask for privileges in the union. People would cry out that germany is trying to conquer europe through the EU

Ironically the biggest pushback for this would come from Germany itself. If Merkel was ever to make such demands for special treatment her political career would be severely damaged or over even.
 

Joni

Member
The EU has a ton of requirements before a state can enter. As long as Erdogan keeps this up, they are not allowed in at all. And they still have a long way to go on other things as well. Just 1 of 35 requirements have been passed: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accession_of_Turkey_to_the_European_Union#Negotiation_progress

The talk about Turkey entering is just fear mongering at the moment. It's not going to happen anytime soon. And if they pass all the requirements, then the country has advanced a lot and it deserves at least to get seriously looked at for entering the EU.

It is an easy way for a politician to backpedal. He gives a 'warning' to Europe on something that will never happen so he never will have to pull the trigger. It makes it look like he will still do it when it is necessary, even when that is at a moment hell freezes over.
 

Bold One

Member
When Theresa fucking May is being described as likeable or reasonable, you know that things have gone really fucking wrong.

This,

why can't we get these two?

image_update_img.jpg


or Merkel, she's awesome
 

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
I think there are good reasons to keep out turkey at the moment if you look at how erdogan treats the press or the opposition though.

I'm not saying that Turkey should join the EU. They will not in the next 20 years at least any how. That was not the point. It's a fake threat. But Turkish people are the favourite "enemy" for FPÖ since I follow Austrian elections.
 
I think it's quite telling that Hofer (now again candidate in the re-run of the Austrian presidential election) from FPÖ has now back-pedaled on a possible EU referendum in Austria, saying they will call for it only in case Turkey (that's racist business as usual which seems to be OK in Austria for some reason) joins EU or US of E is pushed to be.

it's okay because we're xenophobic af
 

norinrad

Member
The EU has a ton of requirements before a state can enter. As long as Erdogan keeps this up, they are not allowed in at all. And they still have a long way to go on other things as well. Just 1 of 35 requirements have been passed: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accession_of_Turkey_to_the_European_Union#Negotiation_progress

The talk about Turkey entering is just fear mongering at the moment. It's not going to happen anytime soon. And if they pass all the requirements, then the country has advanced a lot and it deserves at least to get seriously looked at for entering the EU.

Erdogan should have his referendum on EU membership. I think the Turkish people would vote not to join.

This,

why can't we get these two?

image_update_img.jpg


or Merkel, she's awesome

She was voted out a while ago, as she spends more time taking selfies than actually doing the job she was elected to do.
 

Mr. Sam

Member
I think it's quite telling that Hofer (now again candidate in the re-run of the Austrian presidential election) from FPÖ has now back-pedaled on a possible EU referendum in Austria, saying they will call for it only in case Turkey (that's racist business as usual which seems to be OK in Austria for some reason) joins EU or US of E is pushed to be.

Every member state has a veto on new member states joining though. Unless they slept in on the morning of the vote and missed it, how could Turkey join without their say-so?

This reminds me of Gove being interviewed by Andrew Neill or someone:

"But we have a veto on new member states, don't we?"
"No."
"We do though."
"What are you, some sort of "expert"?"
 
Every member state has a veto on new member states joining though. Unless they slept in on the morning of the vote and missed it, how could Turkey join without their say-so?

This reminds me of Gove being interviewed by Andrew Neill or someone:

"But we have a veto on new member states, don't we?"
"No."
"We do though."
"What are you, some sort of "expert"?"
Right wing anti-intellectualism at its finest.
 

Joni

Member
Every member state has a veto on new member states joining though. Unless they slept in on the morning of the vote and missed it, how could Turkey join without their say-so?

But it takes a lot of time to go from HeathRow to Brussels Airport, and then from there to European buildings while under police escort.
 

*Splinter

Member
Every member state has a veto on new member states joining though. Unless they slept in on the morning of the vote and missed it, how could Turkey join without their say-so?

This reminds me of Gove being interviewed by Andrew Neill or someone:

"But we have a veto on new member states, don't we?"
"No."
"We do though."
"What are you, some sort of "expert"?"
This can't be real? Does anyone have a link to the interview? (Can't find it)
 

gerg

Member
I don't disagree with you but it's likely the EU will put considerable pressure on the UK to get on with article 50 ASAP. Considering how many special privileges the UK already had and the further ones that were negotiated in February, many view it as a spoiled child throwing a temper tantrum which is damaging the entire continent. At least that's a common view among the people I work with in Germany at the moment.

Be that as it may, as has been emphasised before in these discussions the EU has no legal recourse to force the UK to initiate Article 50.

Plus, I think it unhelpfully simple to talk of the EU in singular terms. Different countries and their leaders will have (and have had already) differing and not always compatible attitudes to Brexit. (Compare Merkel with Juncker as a start.)
 

Joni

Member
I can't imagine what the EU would have to offer Cyprus to not use its veto regarding Turkey.

In any case, it would be the ideal way for Greece to lose its entire debt. But it remains hilarious. There was really only one person in the Council that wanted Turkey in: David Cameron...
 

norinrad

Member
In any case, it would be the ideal way for Greece to lose its entire debt. But it remains hilarious. There was really only one person in the Council that wanted Turkey in: David Cameron...

Well a trade treaty with Turkey is pretty much a done deal then after article 50.
 

iz.podpolja

Neo Member
Didnt the polish government issue a formal complaint this week?

They did, which makes their silence on numerous acts of racism and bigotry coming to pass in Poland since their victory last year even more striking.
And unfortunately I doubt they will learn anything from the UK's surge of racism, first because the official spin on Brexit is that it was about the British fear of "Syrian refugees" [funny fact: It's #1 fear of Poles right now - over 80% describe it as such - as the refugees number in Poland hit mind-blowing two hundred - I give you the power of media], second because it only plays to the nationalists' image of Poland as an eternal victim, which they often utilize to justify their own bigotry.
 
This can't be real? Does anyone have a link to the interview? (Can't find it)

Basically the argument was that while we technically had a veto, we would be pressured into not using it, or the EU would somehow find some way of pressing the issue until we just gave in.
 
Be that as it may, as has been emphasised before in these discussions the EU has no legal recourse to force the UK to initiate Article 50.

Plus, I think it unhelpfully simple to talk of the EU in singular terms. Different countries and their leaders will have (and have had already) differing and not always compatible attitudes to Brexit. (Compare Merkel with Juncker as a start.)

Sure. But this is international diplomacy, not domestic politics, and relying on legal technicalities won't go down well if the next PM decides to play a game of standing on the brink of leaving in order to satisfy the leavers while not actually intending to trigger article 50 any time soon. As you say the UK still has some allies, it would be wise to move while this still is the case.
 
War criminal Tony Blair actually talks a lot of sense on the subject today:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36698055

Former prime minister Tony Blair has said "we should keep our options open" on the UK leaving the European Union.

He told the BBC the 48% who had voted to Remain felt "disenfranchised" and it was not clear "what we are moving to".

He said that "if the will of the people shifts" as details of what Brexit means for the country begin to emerge, then, "Why shouldn't we recognise that?"
 

Micael

Member
I was paraphrasing, this isn't the interview in question, but yes, this is just another branch of Leave's vast tree of bollocks:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12905...key-through-to-join-eu-despite-uk-veto-claim/

Apologies for the Sun link.

That's some hilarious logic in that video, as a Portuguese I can testify that we were screwing ourselves long before we even joined the EU, I mean we were once one of the largest trading empires in the world, and we sure as hell weren't a rich country by the time we joined the EU, I mean seriously 42 years ago we were under a dictatorship.
Not even going to go into the flawed logic that EU eliminates jobs with new policies, when the same can be said of any political system.
 
Be that as it may, as has been emphasised before in these discussions the EU has no legal recourse to force the UK to initiate Article 50.

Plus, I think it unhelpfully simple to talk of the EU in singular terms. Different countries and their leaders will have (and have had already) differing and not always compatible attitudes to Brexit. (Compare Merkel with Juncker as a start.)

Yes but they also have no obligations to start negotiations until it has been invoked.
 
That is not true - I give you the Polish example, where even the Law & Justice party is pro-EU, despite them being UKIP-like in almost any other regard (80% of society would remain in the EU if a similar referendum happened here), including a mechanism which led to their electoral victory - votes of disenfranchised. Of course it has nothing to do with immigration. It has everything to do with governments going for austerity and claiming it is the right solution, everything else is just a scapegoat/distraction (especially the EU). You cannot attempt to castrate public services & education system and expect that people who find those elements the only real state presence in their lives will not notice, especially that it can only lead to even greater inequality, as those with enough money will have access to better paid education/healthcare anyway. If you narrow the resource base, there is always going to be a visible other to blame - immigrants, minorities, "5th column" and so on.


I don't know if the gov't response is everything. However, I want to comment as a side note that if Brexit is economic suicide due to a potential GDP loss between 2-7%, then Britain is a zombie economy and has already committed economic suicide because in aftermath Great Recession they've likely deviated > 10% from 2007/2008 projections assuming estimates by orgs like the IMF were accurate (LOL).
 

*Splinter

Member
I don't know if the gov't response is everything. However, I want to comment as a side note that if Brexit is economic suicide due to a potential GDP loss between 2-7%, then Britain is a zombie economy and has already committed economic suicide because in aftermath Great Recession they've likely deviated > 10% from 2007/2008 projections assuming estimates by orgs like the IMF were accurate (LOL).
Can you explain where you're getting that 2-7% number from?
 
I don't disagree with you but it's likely the EU will put considerable pressure on the UK to get on with article 50 ASAP. Considering how many special privileges the UK already had and the further ones that were negotiated in February, many view it as a spoiled child throwing a temper tantrum which is damaging the entire continent. At least that's a common view among the people I work with in Germany at the moment.

Certainly. When I say it would be unwise to exert too much pressure then I think of Schulz saying, on the day after the referendum, that he expects the UK to invoke Article 50 by Tuesday. That was stupid, unnecessary and counterproductive. On the other hand, I thought that Merkel's stance (= 'Alright, we'll give you time until you've sorted out your domestic political chaos and have elected a new PM, but then we'll expect you to go on with it. Oh, and there'll be no cherry picking anymore, of course.') was very reasonable. Firm but fair in a kind of 'you've made your bed and we respect that, but now you have to lie in it' way.

My point is that the EU institutions and member states might come out of this stronger than before, if they don't have to play bad cop too much. At the moment, it doesn't look like they'll have to, because they're holding almost all of the cards anyway. If however, they decide, for whatever reason, to try and pull a Greece on the UK, then this would just be pouring more oil into the fire of the eurosceptics. I can't imagine that happening though; the Brexit situation is far too different to the Greece crisis.
 
Ironically the biggest pushback for this would come from Germany itself. If Merkel was ever to make such demands for special treatment her political career would be severely damaged or over even.

Merkel has to be one of the single most pro-european politicians I can think of. She really isn't one to lower heself to negotiate special opt outs and rebates and stuff for Germany a la UK .

To be fair, no other european member was as obnoxious about it as the UK.
 

Lego Boss

Member
Polish nationalists are completely oblivious to how many Poles are regarded in the UK. They applaud the Brits for taking a stand against 'immigrant vermin' completely missing the point that in this case it usually refers to Poles, not Muslim. It's an absolutely bizarre situation that boggles the mind. That's some really next-level denial.

I lived in Poland for two years and it always amazed me how many numpties went around painting swastikas and 'Juden Out' graffiti. This was a place where the holocaust took place ( through no fault of their own).

However, they are massively ethically and religiously homogenous. For me it is not difference that causes racism and xenophobia, but the LACK of it
 

SomTervo

Member
Polish nationalists are completely oblivious to how many Poles are regarded in the UK. They applaud the Brits for taking a stand against 'immigrant vermin' completely missing the point that in this case it usually refers to Poles, not Muslim. It's an absolutely bizarre situation that boggles the mind. That's some really next-level denial.

God almighty

And Soini (our Farage and current Foreign Minister... yeah) managed to fuck up completely by making an unofficial visit and meeting with Leave supporters, hence associating himself with this mess.

I've never been happier or more proud to live in Glasgow. Bring on another indy ref and I'll happily vote yes this time, don't want to contribute my taxes to a country and government that doesn't want me.

Yes, man! I'll clink a pint of T to that!

Every member state has a veto on new member states joining though. Unless they slept in on the morning of the vote and missed it, how could Turkey join without their say-so?

This reminds me of Gove being interviewed by Andrew Neill or someone:

"But we have a veto on new member states, don't we?"
"No."
"We do though."
"What are you, some sort of "expert"?"

Jesus christ

When Theresa fucking May is being described as likeable or reasonable, you know that things have gone really fucking wrong.

Makes me want to cry

Oh what's that? Just Lily Allen hanging out a garden party with Rupert Murdoch, Nigel Farage and Liam Fox: https://twitter.com/lilyallen/status/749591169865310208

Fucking brilliant

She's generally ripping into Murdoch and the Tories/KIP on her feed. It's fantastic
 

oti

Banned
When Theresa fucking May is being described as likeable or reasonable, you know that things have gone really fucking wrong.

Gove seems like a guy who's been selling vaccum cleaners all his life and one day decided he wanted to become an improv comedian.
 

Mr. Sam

Member
I will purchase all the albums of this... "Lily Allen."

Edit: I'm getting ads for immigration lawyers on this page. Makes sense. Jeez.
 
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