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[GamerMax73]

Lives are literally at stake here. If you are that commited to keep your unelectable ideologue in power, in the name of "social justice", for damn sure it should cost more than a Starbucks and cinnamon bun.

I read this, then remembered two important facts:

• The next GE is 4 years away - in 2020
• Labour doesn't have a credible candidate running for the leadership.

The Tories have returned to Thatcher, and Labour had already returned to Kinnock. Welcome back to the 1980's, we missed you.

Got to say, politically Corbyn is my kind of politician. Shame he's only marginally more PM material than Eagle. And whose Smith? Where did he come from?

I think all the real candidates are in hiding until the next leadership contest probably around 2019 time. Save your £25's for that one

 

[Pandy]

Good days to be a UK secret agent. A PM who'll actively encourage more spying activities, and a Secretary of State overseeing the department that can be lied to and bamboozled with impunity.

MI6 suddenly have a free(er) reign to get up to whatever they like in the world. (And I'm directing this at our "friends" and "neighbours").

Yup. Just thinking of all those scenes in James Bond movies that go something like-

M: This is a disgrace, Bond! What do you think will happen when the Minister finds out about this?

Bond: LOL

M: Fair point.

 

[ThoughtsOfSpeaking]

You're right though, there's a childhood obesity problem anyway. They should take some food of their children's plate to vote!

Considering the kind of people in power right now, people will be lucky to have a plate to put food on period.

 

[More Fun To Compute]

I think that I would rather live in a world where Eagle could be PM. She has character.

 

[suedester]

So you're going to stop importing from EU if you don't get a good deal or just pay more for the goods you need?

You aren't going to stop importing from the EU entirely, but if another country is willing to negotiate better terms with lower tariffs or even free trade then naturally you will start importing goods from them instead.

 

[GamerMax73]

Considering the kind of people in power right now, people will be lucky to have a plate to put food on period.

Bowls, I believe they are called bowls, not plates. At least that's what I gathered from watching slops being served in workhouses in Oliver

 

[SporeCrawler]

40 years of underinvestment sure did wonders for the manufacturing sector. But sure, we should focus entirely on what benefits the service industry, so that the countries economy becomes even more lopsided while London sees all the investment and benefits and wealth. I guess the rest of the country gets to just wither and die.

Nothing new there.

Well who is going to invest anything in a country with such an uncertain future

You aren't going to stop importing from the EU entirely, but if another country is willing to negotiate better terms with lower tariffs or even free trade then naturally you will start importing goods from them instead.

And what country will that be?

 

[GamerMax73]

You aren't going to stop importing from the EU entirely, but if another country is willing to negotiate better terms with lower tariffs or even free trade then naturally you will start importing goods from them instead.

Supply and demand. You're assuming A.N.Other Country can supply the goods you demand in the quantities you need.

Trade with the EU is going nowhere, even if we have to pay through the nose for it. The best we can say is it might shrink marginally if we can source some cheaper goods and ship them from greater distances.

 

[ThoughtsOfSpeaking]

I read this, then remembered two important facts:

• The next GE is 4 years away - in 2020
• Labour doesn't have a credible candidate running for the leadership.

The Tories have returned to Thatcher, and Labour had already returned to Kinnock. Welcome back to the 1980's, we missed you.

Got to say, politically Corbyn is my kind of politician. Shame he's only marginally more PM material than Eagle. And whose Smith? Where did he come from?

I think all the real candidates are in hiding until the next leadership contest probably around 2019 time. Save your £25's for that one

Changing leadership won't mean jack shit if the party isn't United right now.

Neither eagle nor Owen are PM material, but either can at least calm the waters and get the party working together again.

Corybn can't. He doesn't even have a interest in doing so. He has to go now. He can take everyone of his fanboys with him.

 

[GamerMax73]

Neither eagle nor Owen are PM material, but either can at least calm the waters and get the party working together again.

To be honest, the parties in a shit state and will like fracture further regardless, unless a credible candidate steps forward. Even then, who knows. Seems to me the rank and file has shifted drastically to the left and the electables are still trying to hold the centre ground. Wouldn't surprise me if we start seeing constituency parties recalling their MPs and finding more left leaning candidates. I don't think a nobody calming the waters is going to pull the party back to the centre, unless the union's can be pacified on the way.

 

[kmag]

Supply and demand. You're assuming A.N.Other Country can supply the goods you demand in the quantities you need.

Trade with the EU is going nowhere, even if we have to pay through the nose for it. The best we can say is it might shrink marginally if we can source some cheaper goods and ship them from greater distances.

General goods tariffs average about 3% under WTO rules. That's not really enough to throw off trade in any great amounts either way. Customs put an extra cost but again that's manageable.

The biggest risk for the UK is services exports. A large proportion of UK exports to the EU are in services. The EU on the other hand doesn't really export that many services to the UK. They'll be heavily hit by the exclusions and protections under GATS, nevermind the increased cost of compliance to do business.

While the EU imports more cars to the UK than the UK exports to the EU. Given the foreign ownership of UK car manufacturers the UK is probably a bit more exposed to those manufacturers scaling down or upping and leaving than the EU is. (again would you rather have a factory in Spain selling to 600 million tariff free and paying the 12% tariff to sell to 60 million or would you rather be in Sunderland with tariff free sales to 60 million and a 12% tariff on sales to 600 million)

 

[suedester]

And what country will that be?

It certainly won't be a single country. There must be plenty of countries outside of the EU that are keen to export to a new market, no?

Supply and demand. You're assuming A.N.Other Country can supply the goods you demand in the quantities you need.

Trade with the EU is going nowhere, even if we have to pay through the nose for it. The best we can say is it might shrink marginally if we can source some cheaper goods and ship them from greater distances.

With demand comes supply. Clearly we can't import French wine from outside the EU but I'm sure South Africa would be quite keen to increase supply (this is a completely made up example and I'm sure there are lots of intricacies I'm totally unaware of).

 

[Deleted member 231381]

With demand comes supply. Clearly we can't import French wine from outside the EU but I'm sure South Africa would be quite keen to increase supply (this is a completely made up example and I'm sure there are lots of intricacies I'm totally unaware of).

It's much more expensive shipping something from South Africa than it is France, though. 46% of our trade took place with the EU for a reason. Not to mention, if South Africa notices we have to pay more for French wines now, they'll charge us slightly more as well, because they have less competition.

 

[KingSnake]

You aren't going to stop importing from the EU entirely, but if another country is willing to negotiate better terms with lower tariffs or even free trade then naturally you will start importing goods from them instead.

http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/gbr/

I mean sure, instead of Audi, BMW and Mercedes, UK is going to import some Chinese cars. It's a bit more tricky with the car parts for the cars produced in UK, but who needs good British cars anyway?
Package medicaments? Maybe some cheap voodoo dust?
I guess at least for wine and cheese some sacrifices can be made and the price can go up.

 

[Acorn]

BBC "A very different direction for May govt"

What? Shes done fuck all but appoint a hard right cabinet and b.s left wing stuff speech.

The fuck is going on with the beeb these days.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Lmao at BJ as foreign minister.

40 years of underinvestment sure did wonders for the manufacturing sector. But sure, we should focus entirely on what benefits the service industry, so that the countries economy becomes even more lopsided while London sees all the investment and benefits and wealth. I guess the rest of the country gets to just wither and die.

Nothing new there.

The UK didn't transition away from manufacturing because of underinvestment.

The reality is Europe does need our trade. That doesn't make the negotiations easy of course but we do import an awful fucking lot from the EU.

The UK comprises 14% of EU ex UK exports. The EU ex UK comprises about half of UK exports. You need the EU's trade. Proximity also keeps cogs down by reducing supply chain footprint. Part of the UK's trade to the EU exists essentially purely because it's in the EU.

 

[Coriolanus]

BBC "A very different direction for May govt"

What? Shes done fuck all but appoint a hard right cabinet and b.s left wing stuff speech.

The fuck is going on with the beeb these days.

terrified of becoming a target.

 

[ThoughtsOfSpeaking]

BBC "A very different direction for May govt"

What? Shes done fuck all but appoint a hard right cabinet and b.s left wing stuff speech.

The fuck is going on with the beeb these days.

They had to adopt a Tory slant to applease a government that is looking for any excuse to take away their funding.

I can't see it working though. We will see a license-free BBC with the decade.

 

[BigAl1992]

http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/gbr/

I mean sure, instead of Audi, BMW and Mercedes, UK is going to import some Chinese cars. It's a bit more tricky with the car parts for the cars produced in UK, but who needs good British cars anyway?
Package medicaments? Maybe some cheap voodoo dust?
I guess at least for wine and cheese some sacrifices can be made and the price can go up.

That's still a bad example. If your're in a business that supplies goods to someone, and you realise that demand from a customer has gone up and that you're their sole supplier, are you going to stand still and maintain the same contract you had with them so they pay less and you get the same amount of profit as usual or worse yet lower, and are you seriously going to accept your customer walking all over you? Hell no, you're going to charge them through the nose, because you know you have a bargain on your hands. Likewise, if the UK panics and relies on countries outside the EU to fulfil their import demands, those countries are going to charge the highest price they can get away because they know they've gotten into a position where they can boss the terms of the deal to their liking, as China has been infamously know to do time and time again with their exports around the planet, nevermind their local Continent.

 

[KingSnake]

That's still a bad example. If your're in a business that supplies goods to someone, and you realise that demand from a customer has gone up and that you're their sole supplier, are you going to stand still and maintain the same contract you had with them so they pay less and you get the same amount of profit as usual or worse yet lower, and are you seriously going to accept your customer walking all over you? Hell no, you're going to charge them through the nose, because you know you have a bargain on your hands. Likewise, if the UK panics and relies on countries outside the EU to fulfil their import demands, those countries are going to charge the highest price they can get away because they know they've gotten into a position where they can boss the terms of the deal to their liking, as China has been infamously know to do time and time again with their exports around the planet, nevermind their local Continent.

I was being sarcastic. Almost nobody who wants to buy an Audi, BMW or Mercedes will buy a car from another class because the car (s)he wants it's suddenly 3% more expensive. Or even more. The cars will just be more expensive and/or the margin for the local dealers lower.

 

[avaya]

WTO tariffs aren't the only thing to worry about, people forget the biggest barriers are actually technical e.g. Testing standards, health and safety etc. All requiring quarantine and sampling for instance, impossible to avoid without a mutual recognition agreement. An MRA would be like trying to sign a trade deal. UK firms could be utterly fucked.

Regardless going WTO would be a total asset stripping of this country. The government knows this.

The latest survey data from gfk also shows levels of confidence at levels not seen since 2008. Met with Danny Blanchflower few days ago, he says recession confirmed for H2. Says BoE policy team a lot more relaxed on options this time around since Carney is not as ideologically wedded as King. Pushback from batshit crazies on Tory right could scupper the banks plans to effectively provide a fiscal level stimulus.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

WTO tariffs aren't the only thing to worry about, people forget the biggest barriers are actually technical e.g. Testing standards, health and safety etc. All requiring quarantine and sampling for instance, impossible to avoid without a mutual recognition agreement. An MRA would be like trying to sign a trade deal. UK firms could be utterly fucked.

Regardless going WTO would be a total asset stripping of this country. The government knows this.

The latest survey data from gfk also shows levels of confidence at levels not seen since 2008. Met with Danny Blanchflower few days ago, he says recession confirmed for H2. Says BoE policy team a lot more relaxed on options this time around since Carney is not as ideologically wedded as King. Pushback from batshit crazies on Tory right could scupper the banks plans to effectively provide a fiscal level stimulus.

Danny Blanchflower or David? I've met David, he's a sharp guy.

EDIT: Wait, Danny is his nickname? I had noooo idea.

 

[avaya]

Danny Blanchflower or David? I've met David, he's a sharp guy.

Same guy

 

[suedester]

It's much more expensive shipping something from South Africa than it is France, though. 46% of our trade took place with the EU for a reason. Not to mention, if South Africa notices we have to pay more for French wines now, they'll charge us slightly more as well, because they have less competition.

46% of our trade takes place within the EU in some part because of the advantages that comes with being within the single market. The disadvantage of that is that we are unable to negotiate our own trade deals.

I'm not sure transportation costs have a huge influence on costs. South African wine doesn't seem to be massively more expensive than French My overall point though is that French winemakers won't be too happy with reduced exports to Britain and will pressure the French government during any negotiations.

 

[Ragnar Blackmane]

Has anybody mentioned yet that Boris Johnson is now in charge of MI6?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secret_Intelligence_Service

My brain hurts.

Shit is getting better by the second. Might as well hand him the nukes while they're at it.

 

[avaya]

46% of our trade takes place within the EU in some part because of the advantages that comes with being within the single market. The disadvantage of that is that we are unable to negotiate our own trade deals.

I'm not sure transportation costs have a huge influence on costs. South African wine doesn't seem to be massively more expensive than French My overall point though is that French winemakers won't be too happy with reduced exports to Britain and will pressure the French government during any negotiations.

You mentioned some 'aces we have up our sleeve'....please could you expand on what you think are our aces?

 

[Deleted member 231381]

46% of our trade takes place within the EU in some part because of the advantages that comes with being within the single market. The disadvantage of that is that we are unable to negotiate our own trade deals.

I'm not sure transportation costs have a huge influence on costs. South African wine doesn't seem to be massively more expensive than French My overall point though is that French winemakers won't be too happy with reduced exports to Britain and will pressure the French government during any negotiations.

ye-es... but this works both ways. French financiers will be very happy with London losing the financial passport and will push very strongly for that. Any industry that thinks it can scavenge from the UK, which is a lot of industries, especially in manufacturing, will be pushing to fuck the UK over. Spain is already doing this with respect to pharmaceuticals, for example. Not to mention that we don't do individual deals with each of these countries, we have to negotiate with the EU and EFTA as a block, and all 31 of those countries each has a veto, so even if French winemakers love us, if Slovenian grape merchants (I have no idea if this is a real niche but you get my point) don't, then we have to abide by what the Slovenian grape merchants want.

We are not the ones with the good barganing position here.

 

[rtcn63]

Man I really want to re-watch The Thick of It

And Corbyn and Labour

 

[pswii60]

So you're going to stop importing from EU if you don't get a good deal or just pay more for the goods you need?

Businesses always hunt for the best deals when choosing suppliers, and if those no longer come out of the EU because of tariffs or restrictions then they'll look to home or elsewhere. Pretty basic stuff. Nothing is going to stop overnight but it would inevitably have a huge impact long-term for both parties if nothing gets agreed.

 

[KingSnake]

46% of our trade takes place within the EU in some part because of the advantages that comes with being within the single market. The disadvantage of that is that we are unable to negotiate our own trade deals.

I'm not sure transportation costs have a huge influence on costs. South African wine doesn't seem to be massively more expensive than French My overall point though is that French winemakers won't be too happy with reduced exports to Britain and will pressure the French government during any negotiations.

Wine is 1.9% out of France export and out of this 15% goes to UK. Not too much of a leverage there. Compared to the shinny glamour of the financial industry that has caught the eyes of the French authorities.

 

[Walshicus]

46% of our trade takes place within the EU in some part because of the advantages that comes with being within the single market. The disadvantage of that is that we are unable to negotiate our own trade deals.

How was that anything but an advantage to have the clout of ~1/2bn people and the largest economy on the planet responsible for negotiating trade?

 

[suedester]

You mentioned some 'aces we have up our sleeve'....please could you expand on what you think are our aces?

13% of the EU's exports are to the UK.

ye-es... but this works both ways. French financiers will be very happy with London losing the financial passport and will push very strongly for that. Any industry that thinks it can scavenge from the UK, which is a lot of industries, especially in manufacturing, will be pushing to fuck the UK over. Spain is already doing this with respect to pharmaceuticals, for example. Not to mention that we don't do individual deals with each of these countries, we have to negotiate with the EU and EFTA as a block, and all 31 of those countries each has a veto, so even if French winemakers love us, if Slovenian grape merchants (I have no idea if this is a real niche but you get my point) don't, then we have to abide by what the Slovenian grape merchants want.

We are not the ones with the good barganing position here.

I never said our bargaining position was good. I think we can get a better deal than Norway, for example.

I'd like to emphasize that I did vote for remain. You aren't debating with a leaver. I just don't think it's going to be the abject shit show that is the general consensus of this thread though.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I think we can get a better deal than Norway, for example.

Why? What constitutes better, and in what time frame?

The Norway arrangement isn't actually something to aspire to, I'm not sure why it ended up being held up as such. It's an awkward arrangement because those in power failed to convince the populace that they'd be better just joining the EU (which they would).

 

[suedester]

Wine is 1.9% out of France export and out of this 15% goes to UK. Not too much of a leverage there. Compared to the shinny glamour of the financial industry that has caught the eyes of the French authorities.

It was just a random example.

How was that anything but an advantage to have the clout of ~1/2bn people and the largest economy on the planet responsible for negotiating trade?

We can negotiate on our own terms, specific to the needs of the UK rather than the entirety of the EU.

Why? What constitutes better, and in what time frame?

We've a much larger economy that imports more goods. What constitutes better is a matter of opinion I guess and depends what you are negotiating for.

 

[chadskin]

Norway, at least, has oil and gas

• Norway is in the global top 5 exporters of crude oil. The oil and gas sector constitutes around 22% of Norwegian GDP and 67% of Norwegian exports.
• Norway is Western Europe's most important source of natural gas.
• Norwegian gas exports account for approximately 20% of EU gas consumption (in 2010), with almost all Norwegian exports going to EU.
• The main EU importers of Norwegian gas are: Germany, France, UK and Belgium.

http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/countries/norway/

 

[Psychotext]

Boris's neighbour knows the score: https://twitter.com/manuscript/status/753336475165593600/video/1

 

[Zaph]

A deal better than Norway. While a 730 day timer ticks down over our head. And any member state can veto.

I think I'm ready for whatever the Brexiters are smoking. I'd rather live in blissful ignorance right about now.

Boris's neighbour knows the score: https://twitter.com/manuscript/status/753336475165593600/video/1

Cameraman/producer did the best pan of their career.

 

[suedester]

A deal better than Norway. While a 730 day timer ticks down over our head. And any member state can veto.

I think I'm ready for whatever the Brexiters are smoking. I'd rather live in blissful ignorance right about now.

If you are referring to me I'm an optimistic remainer. I don't think the sky is going to fall in.

 

[Lucreto]

If you are referring to me I'm an optimistic remainer. I don't think the sky is going to fall in.

 

[Nilaul]

The EU can afford going into all out trade war with Russia and people think they can't afford to cut out the UK completely? People think that the UK has any leverage what so ever? The EU is looking forward to bringing the banks over too.

Well... well... well...

 

[avaya]

13% of the EU's exports are to the UK.

That is with the entirety of the bloc, so the actual leverage per country, which is what you would need to create a fissure in the solid policy wall we will encounter is going to be less, so they can wear it quite well.

Regardless, they already know what the UK needs, it needs access to the single market for the services economy, WTO would devastate that. They know we need the financial passport. These two facts alone mean they have us over a barrel. This is why most people who are looking at the facts are so gloomy.

This is without even getting into the discussion that for the EU the 4 freedoms is seen as existential. This isn't like the issue with Greece or other Eurozone states where the opposition on policy was born out of German political expediency rather than actual facts. The facts are what are driving the doom.

We don't make things here. We never ever really will anymore since our comparative advantage in manufacturing is gone, forever, in a globalised world. As a service economy we are therefore utterly dependent on the single market.

You are not the only one who is optimistic, for what it's worth. I've seen a few sell side strategists broke the idea that the EU will be pragmatic and there will be a deal. I think so too, I just think that any deal will see the UK accept the four freedoms because anything less is massively suicidal.

 

[travisbickle]

Don't worry guys, we can sell jaffacakes to Brazil.

 

[avaya]

Don't worry guys, we can sell jaffacakes to Brazil.

That's owned by a Turkish company now.

 

[shinra-bansho]

That is with the entirety of the bloc, so the actual leverage per country, which is what you would need to create a fissure in the solid policy wall we will encounter is going to be less, so they can wear it quite well.

Bruegel has put together a nifty xls.
http://bruegel.org/2016/06/brexit-who-trades-what-with-the-uk/
Accessible there.

If you're Malta or Croatia or Slovenia... you don't really give a shit.

If you're German carmakers the UK is 13% of exports. But they've already said that the four freedoms aren't negotiable.

Overall German exports to the UK are 7% of total. While Germany is 4% of UK exports only. But that's what the benefit of being in a trade bloc is - making the relevant figure the 40-odd %.

 

[Acorn]

That's owned by a Turkish company now.

Lol we don't have fuck all anymore do we. Cadburys gone, former state companies foreign owned, energy infrastructure owned by other countries state companies(us doing it bad, French doing it here=a ok because reasons).

The sell off and destruction of our manufacturing base by Thatcher and heavy reliance on banking continues to cripple us, bloody successive govts didn't bother to fix it.

 

[PJV3]

Lol we don't have fuck all anymore do we. Cadburys gone, former state companies foreign owned, energy infrastructure owned by other countries state companies(us doing it bad, French doing it here=a ok because reasons).

The sell off and destruction of our manufacturing base by Thatcher and heavy reliance on banking continues to cripple us, bloody successive govts didn't bother to fix it.

I only recently found out the Chinese government bought out Weetabix, nothing is sacred.

 

[avaya]

Bruegel has put together a nifty xls.
http://bruegel.org/2016/06/brexit-who-trades-what-with-the-uk/
Accessible there.

If you're Malta or Croatia or Slovenia... you don't really give a shit.

If you're German carmakers the UK is 13% of exports. But they've already said that the four freedoms aren't negotiable.

Overall German exports to the UK are 7% of total. While Germany is 4% of UK exports only. But that's what the benefit of being in a trade bloc is - making the relevant figure the 40-odd %.

Very useful source, thanks. Just add to this we aren't even talking about whether these goods and services can easily be substituted. Those buying German cars are unlikely to want to switch. It's not a case of those going to zero. So the leverage is even less.

 

[CTLance]

I only recently found out the Chinese government bought out Weetabix, nothing is sacred.

Really?! The heart weeps.

How could you, Great Britain. I'm very disappointed in you.

 

[BigAl1992]

God damn. When Weetabix, a cereal that's about as British as the country cottage in the middle of England is own by the Chinese Government, you know you're absolutely fucked. I thought I heard it all today, but god damn is that not a fact and a half. UK, you have my sympathies about where this is all going, but I'm going to sign out for tonight. Try not to go too crazy on us till tomorrow morning at least.

 

[avaya]

I would be surprised if they trigger A50 before the French and German elections are done. So H2 2017 is my date. Given how fucked things they might do it next week and we become the political punching bag in the French and German elections.

I'm sure Macron is salivating about Guernseyfying the UK.