Support NeoGAF

[SporeCrawler]

It has a reasonable amount to do with it, but it's not the primary cause. Last year we had net migration of 330k, which is quite a bit higher than the net birthrate. It's a lot of people and they do have to be housed, so it does have an effect. If we had no immigration we would probably be building just about enough homes. That's hardly relevant though, imo.

So I hear that a lot of immigrants (in some cases people that lived in UK for decades) will leave because UK people just dont want them there (saying that they should go home).
I guess this will help wjh the housing situation (along with a lot of people relocating).
Is there a statistic how many people left or are going to leave?

May has done a good job of turning the temperature down, if she's bullshitting and gets a terrible deal then it will change.

The country really is in a strange limbo, even the City seems to think she will pull off a miracle.

Well thats great. However she is the prime minister of UK not the leader of all 2& countries so she cant dictate anything

 

[Wrestlemania]

That's a huge increase in "Don't knows". From 6% in May 2015 to 17%.

 

[jelly]

We haven't seen the full impact quite yet, I guess some numbers will be revealed in the next few months on the investment and job numbers and whatever budget changes happen. Even then it might be relatively normal until we trigger article 50. Once people really start to feel the heat, opinions change fast. Holiday spending money and some new skilled jobs investment being put on hold isn't enough yet.

 

[StayDead]

May has done a good job of turning the temperature down, if she's bullshitting and gets a terrible deal then it will change.

The country really is in a strange limbo, even the City seems to think she will pull off a miracle.

I don't think she's going to pull off a miracle, I just think she's taking this all as one big joke hence the people she elected.

I realised it was annoying me too much to think about, so I'm just shying away in the hopes it will somehow sort itself and we won't leave.

 

[accel]

That's a huge increase in "Don't knows". From 6% in May 2015 to 17%.

If you compare pre-Brexit and after-Brexit, the difference is 2%:

"The percentage who said they would not vote or did not know increased from 12% to 14% after the Brexit vote, the poll found."

 

[Wrestlemania]

If you compare pre-Brexit and after-Brexit, the difference is 2%:

"The percentage who said they would not vote or did not know increased from 12% to 14% after the Brexit vote, the poll found."

It's at 17% now though. Where is that quote from?

 

[accel]

It's at 17% now though. Where is that quote from?

From the article I linked.

 

[Wrestlemania]

From the article I linked.

Oh right, I was looking at the results when they asked the question specifically in relation to independence and the EU.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.n...7zgux/ScottishTrackers_25-Jul-2016_Indy_W.pdf

They haven't run those questions before.

 

[Acorn]

Fuuuuuuck yes. I qualify for Italian citizenship.

No European exit for me fuckers.

 

[phisheep]

Fuuuuuuck yes. I qualify for Italian citizenship.

No European exit for me fuckers.

Careful. Italy treats politics as a blood sport like no other.

 

[Jezbollah]

Fuuuuuuck yes. I qualify for Italian citizenship.

No European exit for me fuckers.

I really should get my Italian passport at some stage. Love that dual nationality

 

[Acorn]

Careful. Italy treats politics as a blood sport like no other.

Haha I know. Not looking to move there but keep freedom of movement to the rest.

My piece of shit dad actually was good for something. My mother is half Italian but wasn't registered in Italy, my Dad's birth was.

 

[Royal_Phalanx]

Sadly not able to claim any other EU citizenship I can claim the Chinese one, but you can't be a dual citizen so it's completely worthless anyway+why on earth would I live there. Wish I could claim Canadian or New Zealand citizenship but none of my immediate family live there.

 

[SporeCrawler]

Careful. Italy treats politics as a blood sport like no other.

he can go wherever he wants in the EU if he is a eu citizen. doesnt need to be italy.

 

[Audioboxer]

he can go wherever he wants in the EU if he is a eu citizen. doesnt need to be italy.

Dirty British immigrants thinking they can go anywhere. Pffftt.

/s

 

[Norwegian_Imposter]

I'm working on getting my Norwegian citizenship as I live here now (and I still get the EEA free movement whoop whoop) plus the country is fucking amazing

 

[Audioboxer]

I'm working on getting my Norwegian citizenship as I live here now (and I still get the EEA free movement whoop whoop) plus the country is fucking amazing

What's the best things about it? I've always wanted to visit Norway/Sweden

Also I like this image from yesterday

A true Scottish ginger. You go girl

 

[PJV3]

he can go wherever he wants in the EU if he is a eu citizen. doesnt need to be italy.

That sounds really nice.

 

[Audioboxer]

Another pic from yesterday that might rustle some jimmies (all in good faith)

 

[Izuna]

I'm sick of waking up to seeing this bullshit on MSN News. It's all out "fuck it, let's be racist".

Not to mention the comment above which I couldn't be bothered snipping which basically said: "how can you have peace if people aren't the same colour?"

I fucking hate being in Blackpool.

 

[berzeli]

Mrs Brown’s Boys D’Movie 2 in doubt after Brexit

Chatting to The Sun (sorry), the creator and star of the show, Brendan O’Carroll, has revealed that “we were planning to do it this year but the numbers weren’t right”.

And it’s Brexit to blame. “The Brexit drop in Sterling makes it a lot more expensive for the studio than it would have been previously”. That said, once the currency situation stabilises, conversations about making the sequel will continue, it seems.
“The plot and outline are there and ready to go”, O’Carroll confirmed. “We know what’s going to happen and how we’re going to do it”.

So... Brexit redeemed?




For a more serious take; This is not good news, when sequels to (financially) successful films get put on the back burner that means that the entire film & TV industry is not coping well with Brexit.

 

[accel]

For a more serious take; This is not good news, when sequels to (financially) successful films get put on the back burner that means that the entire film & TV industry is not coping well with Brexit.

It just means that the margins there are thin, after you factor the risks.

 

[Theonik]

It just means that the margins there are thin, after you factor the risks.

So what you are saying is that they are not coping well with brexit no?

 

[berzeli]

It just means that the margins there are thin, after you factor the risks.

And why are the margins thinning? Because Brexit.

The first film pulled in over £20 million on a budget of £3.6 million.
The sequel is not happening as a direct result of Brexit (well technically as an indirect result since it is happening as a result of the pound plunge, which was a direct result of Brexit, causing the costs to rise. But I digress).

Look, I'll grant you that Mrs Brown's Boys is a slightly different case since it is being made in Ireland and thus feeling the effect of the weakening pound more. But to not recognise that this is worrying for the film & TV industry is just rejecting reality.
Mrs Brown's Boys is not going to be the only film which is seeing costs rise due to a weakening pound, Brexit is the cause of those thin margins and risks you talk about.

(And I'm not even talking about the loss of EU funds for film & TV and how that is going to affect the industry.)

 

[accel]

So what you are saying is that they are not coping well with brexit no?

I am saying they are not coping well with anything that upsets the balance even slightly.

The point is that yes, they are not coping well with Brexit, but that doesn't mean Brexit is all that terrible.

And why are the margins thinning? Because Brexit.

The margins are thin due to the nature of the business. See above for the remainder of the point.

 

[Bananajama]

The first film pulled in over £20 million on a budget of £3.6 million.

Not that thin a margin!

 

[Theonik]

I am saying they are not coping well with anything that upsets the balance even slightly.

The point is that yes, they are not coping well with Brexit, but that doesn't mean Brexit is all that terrible.

So you are saying brexit is affecting businesses with traditionally thin margins and is potentially affecting thousands of jobs. Sounds pretty terrible to me.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

It just means that the margins there are thin, after you factor the risks.

Ye-es, and suddenly a lot of thin-margin businesses that employed a lot of people are suddenly rather on the worried side. That's, like, one of the whole cases against this endeavour.

 

[accel]

Not that thin a margin!

That ignores advertisement costs, the fact that by far not all of the revenues go to the creators, and risks. Add it all up and 20 mil revenues with a budget of 3.6 mil is perhaps not bad, but not a runaway success.

So you are saying brexit is affecting businesses with traditionally thin margins and is potentially affecting thousands of jobs. Sounds pretty terrible to me.

Ye-es, and suddenly a lot of thin-margin businesses that employed a lot of people are suddenly rather on the worried side. That's, like, one of the whole cases against this endeavour.

Agree. But it's not a conviction of Brexit, it's a conviction of any serious move no matter how sensible in the long term (agree it's debatable if Brexit is that), if it makes things shaky in the short term.

 

[twobear]

It seems like a pretty handy argument to just be able to say that all struggling firms reflect their inability to deal with Brexit rather than Brexit being a bad idea.

 

[accel]

It seems like a pretty handy argument to just be able to say that all struggling firms reflect their inability to deal with Brexit rather than Brexit being a bad idea.

The argument isn't that, the argument is that Brexit didn't do any serious damage just yet and so pointing to those who already failed with barely any movement and saying that Brexit is terrible because they failed doesn't really work.

 

[Succinct Verbosity]

The argument isn't that, the argument is that Brexit didn't do any serious damage just yet and so pointing to those who already failed with barely any movement and saying that Brexit is terrible because they failed doesn't really work.

In terms of the pounds huge devaluation? I'd think the film industry would be one of the first to feel the effects of a devalued pound given how international that industry tends to be.

 

[berzeli]

I am saying they are not coping well with anything that upsets the balance even slightly.

The point is that yes, they are not coping well with Brexit, but that doesn't mean Brexit is all that terrible.

The margins are thin due to the nature of the business. See above for the remainder of the point.

That ignores advertisement costs, the fact that by far not all of the revenues go to the creators, and risks. Add it all up and 20 mil revenues with a budget of 3.6 mil is perhaps not bad, but not a runaway success.

Please stop. You have no idea what you're talking about.
20+ million pounds on a budget of 3.6 is an unequivocal goddamn runaway success.

I'm not going to argue any this with you since that would be as conducive for my brain as smashing my head repeatedly into a brick wall.
Like I said: not recognising that this is bad is rejecting reality, but then again that pretty much is your shtick in this thread.

 

[accel]

Please stop. You have no idea what you're talking about.
20+ million pounds on a budget of 3.6 is an unequivocal goddamn runaway success.

What were the advertisement costs?

 

[twobear]

The argument isn't that, the argument is that Brexit didn't do any serious damage just yet and so pointing to those who already failed with barely any movement and saying that Brexit is terrible because they failed doesn't really work.

But Brexit has done damage because it's lowered certainty about the future, which affects investor confidence.

If I say I'll lend you £100, on the grounds that you have a stable job, but then you hand in your two weeks notice, you can't say that the situation hasn't changed yet if I then change my mind.

 

[accel]

But Brexit has done damage because it's lowered certainty about the future, which affects investor confidence.

If I say I'll lend you £100, on the grounds that you have a stable job, but then you hand in your two weeks notice, you can't say that the situation hasn't changed yet if I then change my mind.

Yes, I agree. If that's enough for my business to fall over, it means I fall over to basically anything.

 

[Theonik]

Agree. But it's not a conviction of Brexit, it's a conviction of any serious move no matter how sensible in the long term (agree it's debatable if Brexit is that), if it makes things shaky in the short term.

The problem is that making things shaky in the short term can produce stronger economic cracks than the base impact of that move. These people that would have been paid to do those jobs will now not be spending that money in local businesses now they are affected too and so on so forth. People should be prepared for at least some economic fallout the extent of which we don't even properly know and also be prepared to face the weight of their decision.

 

[berzeli]

What were the advertisement costs?

For the films analysed in this study , the average measured spend on advertising was equal to 14% of gross box office receipts or 42% of distributors’ rental income (gross box office less VAT and exhibitors’ take).

(emphasis mine)
Source

• The average film budgeted over £10 million costs £2.4million to distribute
• The average film budgeted under £500,000 costs £40,000 to distribute

Source

Like I said, you have no idea what you're talking about. Please just stop.

The first film was a financial success, full stop.
The second film is postponed because of Brexit, full stop.
This is worrying for the overall film & TV industry, full stop.

 

[twobear]

Yes, I agree. If that's enough for my business to fall over, it means I fall over to basically anything.

I mean, Brexit is also considered to be generally negative by the overwhelming majority of academic and corporate economists, so it's not like they're pessimistic without reason.

 

[accel]

For the films analysed in this study , the average measured spend on advertising was equal to 14% of gross box office receipts or 42% of distributors’ rental income (gross box office less VAT and exhibitors’ take).

It doesn't make sense to analyze anything but average performance that way and you are supposedly talking about a runaway success. It's like me pointing to a Rolls Royce and saying it's cheap because fuel expenses for an average car for whatever period are comparable to their cost, and I can afford that.

It's simple, really. Why the movie with a budget of 3.6 mil brought 20 mil? Perhaps part of the reason is because it was good. But another part might totally be that it was widely advertised. As an illustration, if its advertising budget was something like 3 mil, that counts to 6.6 mil total cost and given that the movie creators take about half of the ticket revenues (AFAIK), that's about 13 mil to break even. 20 mil is higher than 13 mil, so it's still a success, but the scale of that success is that they now have enough to make another such movie and that other movie can now bomb without bringing the studio down.

Agree with your three full stops, just so we are clear, the point is that it doesn't mean much.

 

[Joni]

Hollywood accounting says a film needs to make twice its production budget (so without advertising) to be a success. This movie easily did so.

 

[Theonik]

If advertising didn't bring significantly more revenues than what it cost then no-one would be using advertising...

 

[accel]

Hollywood accounting says a film needs to make twice its production budget (so without advertising) to be a success. This movie easily did so.

No, with advertising. "Twice" comes from about half of the revenues being lost to middlemen.

 

[The Friendly Monster]

Surprise surprise, blackcrane knows more about film industry financing than the people making the films.

 

[Kabouter]

Manufacturing growth across the eurozone eased in July, with Markit's Purchasing Managers' Index for the eurozone falling to 52 in July from 52.8, just beating a flash estimate of 51.9.

A number above 50 indicates growth rather than contraction.

The UK's manufacturing sector activity fell in July, a new survey suggests.

The Markit/CIPS UK manufacturing PMI came in at 48.2, down from 52.4 in June.

The measure of output and new orders fell below the 50 mark that denotes growth for the first time since early 2013.

Didn't see this posted yet.

 

[berzeli]

It doesn't make sense to analyze anything but average performance that way and you are supposedly talking about a runaway success. It's like me pointing to a Rolls Royce and saying it's cheap because fuel expenses for an average car are comparable to their cost for whatever period, and I can afford that.

It's simple, really. Why the movie with a budget of 3.6 mil brought 20 mil? Perhaps part of the reason is because it was good. But another part might totally be that it was widely advertised. As an illustration, if its advertising budget was something like 3 mil, that counts to 6.6 mil total cost and given that the movie creators take about half of the ticket revenues (AFAIK), that's about 13 mil to break even. 20 mil is higher than 13 mil, so it's still a success, but the scale of that success is that they now have enough to make another such movie and that other movie can now bomb without bringing the studio down.

I'm not going to debate some hypothetical with you. The film was a massive financial success, if you're willing to inflate advertisement costs but fully ignore additional revenues (e.g. home media and licensing) in order to make it less of a success in order to... I don't even fucking know why you're trying to make the film sound like less of a financial success than it was.

You've been given two sources indicating that the advertising spend was less than 3£ million and your first reaction is to drag a hypothetical scenario from your nether regions that the spend was 3£ million.

I'm done.

 

[accel]

Surprise surprise, blackcrane knows more about film industry financing than the people making the films.

???

Nothing I said contradicts what the people making films say. In fact, I am saying the same things they do (Joni didn't look far enough).

(By the way, the reason I am so sure about my numbers is that I explored that question for a different reason some time ago. It was a coincidence. If we talked about something other than movies, I likely wouldn't know enough details and wouldn't do any napkin math. But it so happens that in this particular area, I kind of have some info.)

 

[kmag]

Didn't see this posted yet.

This is an abjectly terrible set of numbers, the flash numbers were poor but these figures are actually worse and contain far more time post the new government "stabilisation"

I think if next months numbers aren't substantially better it'll be likely we'll end up in a technical recession.

 

[CyclopsRock]

For a more serious take; This is not good news, when sequels to (financially) successful films get put on the back burner that means that the entire film & TV industry is not coping well with Brexit.

This isn't totally true. The UK was an attractive place to make films before (due to a combination of very good facilities, tax breaks, it being located near Europe's VFX HQ and the fact that dailies can be done in time for Hollywood to wake up) and it's even more the case now when it comes to foreign investment. Half the Marvel films and all the Star Wars films are filmed at Pinewood, just north of London, and they're being produced by a company which literally owns its own film studio. NB, I work for a film company though we mostly do advertising, and don't do any feature film work. Domestically financed films that require an international audience to justify financing are going to be in a bad place re: being produced in the UK. But that's a pretty small market. Most feature films produced here are funded abroad, where actually the drop in value of sterling makes it more attractive to get your film made here. Mrs Brown's Boys is obviously in that former group, unfortunately for them.

 

[Joni]

No, with advertising. "Twice" comes from about half of the revenues being lost to middlemen.

It might be a bit pointless to respond now you're banned, but the rule is really twice the production budget. Because doubling the production budget gives a good idea on advertising and distribution costs. You can find this in all the box office threads. But of course, it is the Hollywood accounting rule. The middlemen rule is more difficult, as the first week is almost 100% for the movie maker while in a third/fourth a week, a bigger percentage goes to the theater.

This isn't totally true. The UK was an attractive place to make films before (due to a combination of very good facilities, tax breaks, it being located near Europe's VFX HQ and the fact that dailies can be done in time for Hollywood to wake up) and it's even more the case now when it comes to foreign investment. Half the Marvel films and all the Star Wars films are filmed at Pinewood, just north of London, and they're being produced by a company which literally owns its own film studio. NB, I work for a film company though we mostly do advertising, and don't do any feature film work. Domestically financed films that require an international audience to justify financing are going to be in a bad place re: being produced in the UK. But that's a pretty small market. Most feature films produced here are funded abroad, where actually the drop in value of sterling makes it more attractive to get your film made here. Mrs Brown's Boys is obviously in that former group, unfortunately for them.

Indeed, it is good for the sector but bad for the British culture.