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[Bleepey]

http://metro.co.uk/2016/08/10/economists-have-worked-out-how-much-brexit-could-cost-us-6059846/

#sovereignty

 

[Kyougar]

Of course things will change and people will lose their jobs. As a child I was unfortunate enough to witness over 20,000 miners lose their livelihoods in the 80's along with thousands of steelworkers, car manufacturers, shipbuilders etc etc
Things change, sometimes for the better, sometimes not. I still feel pretty confident we will remain in the single market, pay for the privilege, retain university research projects if we pay in and continue to have a amicable relationship with Europe in many other areas. Leaving wasn't the best result but we aren't about to decend into the apocalypse.
Im going to stay subbed and continue reading this very interesting thread, but somewhat cut back posting. Every time I try to be positive about the situation we find ourselves in,I'm greeted with a sea of green and feel battered and bruised for a page or two

"well, shit happens" only applies if you couldnt change the outcome. But saying this while actively shooting yourself in the foot is stupid beyond believe.
You cant set your house on fire and say "shit happens, it could have happened to anyone!"

And there wouldnt be any university research projects, ONLY paying into the EU pot not taking anything out. That is only for EU Members, ask Norway.

 

[Dougald]

As for leaving the EU but staying in the EEA, that's not what anyone voted for. Remainers want to be in the EU and Leavers want a total Brexit. There's no mandate for it.

Something both leave and remain can moan about incessantly? Sounds like EEA would be the most British option

 

[Hasney]

Something both leave and remain can moan about incessantly? Sounds like EEA would be the most British option

Is there any way we can queue to join it?

 

[jelly]

http://metro.co.uk/2016/08/10/economists-have-worked-out-how-much-brexit-could-cost-us-6059846/

#sovereignty

It will be hard at first but we are the greatest country in the world.

/s

Come on everybody, lets not do this.

 

[nature boy]

Brexit could be delayed as government departments not ready: Sunday Times

Britain could leave the European Union toward the end of 2019, instead of early that year as expected by some politicians, reported the Sunday Times citing sources who have been briefed by ministers that Brexit departments were not ready.

The UK voted to leave the EU on June 23, but Prime Minister Theresa May has said she will not invoke "Article 50", the two-year formal process for divorcing the bloc, this year as the country needs time to prepare for negotiations.

Britain's international trade minister, Liam Fox, said in July that early next year could be the best time for Britain to trigger the divorce talks.

But Article 50 could be invoked later than that, City sources who had been privately warned by ministers told the Sunday Times, with any delays a result of new government departments set up to handle Brexit and international trade not yet being fully staffed.

Elections in France in May, and Germany in September, could also push back the timing of Britain triggering Article 50, reported the newspaper.

Any delay to the Brexit process is likely to draw criticism from the pro-leave side of May's Conservative party, with senior members such as John Redwood calling for a quick departure from the bloc.

 

[Soldiussnaku]

Brexit could be delayed as government departments not ready: Sunday Times

It'll get delayed time and time again until the current PM, who was in the remain camp, can convince the nation, with the backing of those who were the face of the leave camp, especially 'golden boy', Boris Johnson, that leaving the EU was a total fuck up. Then a general election campagin can be built around getiing back into the EU, or at least keeping the freedom of movement and single market access intact. There won't be much politcal opposition, and the polical powerbase of the leavers have eroded after the exodus of the faces and power behind the Leave campaign. Britian looks to go into a short-medium term reccesion soon, so May and others can also use that to thier benefit.

The uneducated, racist, asshole electorate has the moment in the limelight by voting, and winning, to leave the EU. Voters can be easily maipulted into voting aginst thier own interests.

This govermenment has fucked us over for a long time now, this is one of those times that I support them if they fuck over the harcore Leavers and get us back within the EU, or agree to a heavily revised, single market + freedom of movement baked in, article 50.

 

[Kabouter]

Brexit could be delayed as government departments not ready: Sunday Times

Late 2019 still seems plenty optimistic given the amount of work that needs to be done.

 

[Audioboxer]

Brexit could be delayed as government departments not ready: Sunday Times

Brexit is going to get delayed more times than FF15 at this rate.

 

[Theonik]

Late 2019 still seems plenty optimistic given the amount of work that needs to be done.

Still booking it not happening tbh.
But if it does I expect the actual exit to be scheduled so it ends up after the general election.

 

[Binabik15]

Simply don't do it. Blame the EU and accept the loss of all special rules, exceptions and veto power for a further reduced membership fee. Ride out the outrage and then work on that education and racism problem.

 

[Joni]

Late 2019 still seems plenty optimistic given the amount of work that needs to be done.

She is hoping her voters are stupid enough to forget this.

 

[Kabouter]

Simply don't do it. Blame the EU and accept the loss of all special rules, exceptions and veto power for a further reduced membership fee. Ride out the outrage and then work on that education and racism problem.

Maybe politicians should start doing this less rather than more.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Late 2019 still seems plenty optimistic given the amount of work that needs to be done.

I'd still give 2-1 on Brexit never happening.

 

[Zaph]

I'd still give 2-1 on Brexit never happening.

.

It would take an absolutely insane ideologue coming into power to press the a50 button. May is far from that, so would mean her getting pushed out (unlikely) or a genuine Brexiter winning the next GE (unlikely).

But unfortunately we're still going to have to ride out the cost of doubt.

 

[hydrophilic attack]

She is hoping her voters are stupid enough to forget this.

Aren't they all old? So by then they would be senile and/or dead

 

[Theonik]

Maybe politicians should start doing this less rather than more.

The EU has been such a wonderful scapegoat for UK politicians I don't see why they'll stop now.

 

[Royal_Phalanx]

Given May's treatment of non EU students, making it harder for them to get a job here and settle permanently, she's not exactly a pro-immigration politician. You could argue that she's doing these kinds of things of little substance to placate UKIP and the loony right wing of the Tory party, though.

 

[Kabouter]

Given May's treatment of non EU students, making it harder for them to get a job here and settle permanently, she's not exactly a pro-immigration politician. You could argue that she's doing these kinds of things of little substance to placate UKIP and the loony right wing of the Tory party, though.

...why would you want to make it harder for people who take the initiative to come all the way to your country to study to get a job and settle permanently? I'd love it if more foreign students would stay in NL after they finished their degree.

 

[Royal_Phalanx]

...why would you want to make it harder for people who take the initiative to come all the way to your country to study to get a job and settle permanently? I'd love it if more foreign students would stay in NL after they finished their degree.

To cynically try to cut down on numbers to placate anti-immigration parties and the fringes of the main centre-right party, pretty much. Pretty sure mainstream politicians here don't even want to make it harder to move here in the first place, they just feel under pressure to do so.

 

[EmiPrime]

...why would you want to make it harder for people who take the initiative to come all the way to your country to study to get a job and settle permanently? I'd love it if more foreign students would stay in NL after they finished their degree.

To pander to idiots who lap up this crap: http://www.dailyfail.co.uk/news/art...se-desperate-stay-accounts-net-migration.html

(replace the f with an m)

 

[Zaph]

...why would you want to make it harder for people who take the initiative to come all the way to your country to study to get a job and settle permanently? I'd love it if more foreign students would stay in NL after they finished their degree.

Because for years our newspapers have been blanketed with stories of fake colleges in London, and other student cities, acting as visa factories. It's a real problem (where I used to live there is a small office block which manages to have 4 different schools on one floor, with names like 'Westminster Technology College' and 'London University of Oxford'), but rather than address the real problem - the piss poor oversight in granting premises educational status - they take it out on all students when we should be doing our damnedest to hold on to those we educate.

A guy who recently did a placement with us ended up receiving his masters from LSE but was effectively deported back to Canada while the offers were coming in. To no surprise the US snapped him up and I believe he's working in NY.

 

[Theonik]

...why would you want to make it harder for people who take the initiative to come all the way to your country to study to get a job and settle permanently? I'd love it if more foreign students would stay in NL after they finished their degree.

Because the Tories promised they'd decrease migration to win elections and they realised there isn't much they can actually do so needed to go to drastic (stupid) measures against international students. It's really dumb since training skilled workers is a massive investment even with international students paying more.

 

[nabil2199]

...why would you want to make it harder for people who take the initiative to come all the way to your country to study to get a job and settle permanently? I'd love it if more foreign students would stay in NL after they finished their degree.

Because many people need a quick and easy scapegoat to justify personal and governmental failings.

I myself, as a foreign highly qualified worker in France, still get the occasional xenophobic remarks.

 

[gutter_trash]

It's been pulled back btw:

@SamCoatesTimes
Liam Fox's trade department has deleted the press release about the single market from earlier.

Quite ironic that Britain can't even simply default to WTO terms. Here's a summary of that and what shitty trade-offs Britain is facing: The Brexit Hangover Just Got Worse | Vanity Fair



Meanwhile:

Nigel Farage's 'Preposterous' Moustache Steals The Show During Television Interview

Far-Right nationalists showing up on Russia Today are being played for suckers by Vladimir Putin

Putin seeks to weaken the EU and NATO by propping up these Far-Right nationalists like Farage and LePen

 

[Huw_Dawson]

Because the Tories promised they'd decrease migration to win elections and they realised there isn't much they can actually do so needed to go to drastic (stupid) measures against international students. It's really dumb since training skilled workers is a massive investment even with international students paying more.

The Conservatives are a party not known for their long-term strategic thinking. See: the EU referendum as a GE 2015 manifesto pledge.

 

[Ucchedavāda]

What is your name?

"United Kingdom."​

What is your quest?

"To take back control."​

Having received an unexpected 'Leave' mandate from your referendum, what will you do now?

...​

Spoiler

I stole this joke from a 'Ivo Shandor' on Fark.com.

 

[Kabouter]

Far-Right nationalists showing up on Russia Today are being played for suckers by Vladimir Putin

Putin seeks to weaken the EU and NATO by propping up these Far-Right nationalists like Farage and LePen

Yeah, that's pretty obvious. Funding these nationalists/ultranationalists (in the case of Le Pen and others, I'm not aware of direct Russian government support for UKIP) allows Russia to play divide and conquer in Europe, sometimes all too literally.

 

[nickcv]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37079286

The proportion of employers expecting to increase staff over the next three months dropped from 40% ahead of the vote to 36% after it, according to a survey by HR body the CIPD and Adecco.
It said the fall was "significantly sharper" among private sector firms.
"There has been a clear deterioration in hiring intentions... as a result of the Brexit vote," the report said.
The CIPD said the survey's results suggested post-Brexit economic forecasts of a marked downturn in the labour market next year would be proved right.
"While many businesses are treating the immediate post-Brexit period as 'business as usual', and hiring intentions overall still remain positive, there are signs that some organisations, particularly in the private sector, are preparing to batten down the hatches," said CIPD acting chief economist Ian Brinkley.

My company is one of them... we are currently going to hire people to cover all the positions that were open before the vote, but no new position will be created until we know how it will fare.

Of course that won't stop us from hiring in the other dev centres in Europe or getting new traders in the other offices around the world.

 

[Undead]

Can anyone who understands the economic mess say if this shit will get any better soonish?

 

[Theonik]

lolno

 

[nickcv]

Can anyone who understands the economic mess say if this shit will get any better soonish?

I'm moving some of my savings now back in Europe because of this. I honestly don't foresee the exchange rate getting any better for the foreseeable future.
Maybe small up ticks but it will either stabilise around these numbers until you actually trigger A50 or it will keep going down.

edit:

for reference this is the last weeks:

https://www.dailyfx.com/gbp-usd

until the recent events was down but basically stable: you had a few days in negative then a few in positive (green vs red). Now the trend is down down down

 

[Binabik15]

Maybe politicians should start doing this less rather than more.

True, but what would be the alternative here? UK politicians wouldn't take the blame for simply deciding against the No vote without a scapegoat and who else besides the EU is there to take the fall without real consequences? Foreigners and immigrants/free movement being to blame would only incite more real violence against those in the UK already from what we've seen after the referendum.

Even more public grumbling about the EU while snuggling up to big bad Europe behind closed doors and losing the potential for more obstructionist behaviour in the future seems the least shitty outcome from this mess. Other wannabe secessionist parties across Europe and especially their potential supporters would then well know that getting away is possible, but not feasible in practice. An uptick in rhetoric versus a decrease in action (i.e. trying to actually get referenda on Frexit or whatever) seems managable, younger voters are more pro-EU, anyway, and who listens to the old folks yearning for the good old days at that age.

Can anyone who understands the economic mess say if this shit will get any better soonish?

Without ANYTHING truly positive coming from this and a huge blob of uncertainity being dropped on the future? No, not really. Maybe specific industires will do better, like game retailers when the pound was even lower a couple of years agon and half of Europe was importing games at basically 50% off. I know I'm awfully tempted to import a lot of wargaming miniatures right now.

 

[SKINNER!]

Lmao, £1 is around 4 UAE Dirhams. Holy shit, at one point £1 was worth almost 7 Dirhams. hahahahahaha wow

 

[Theonik]

Lmao, £1 is around 4 UAE Dirhams. Holy shit, at one point £1 was worth almost 7 Dirhams. hahahahahaha wow

1.25CHF as well. Though Euro's taken a plunge there as well. Was in Zurich last week and a burger in BK cost me 12 quid. Terrible.

 

[SKINNER!]

1.25CHF as well. Though Euro's taken a plunge there as well. Was in Zurich last week and a burger in BK cost me 12 quid. Terrible.

yikes!

 

[nickcv]

1.28 for the pound. Got to a new low.

 

[Maedre]

Damn 1,15€.. its time to visit amazon.co.uk

 

[Oriel]

those comments sadden me. I always thought UK was above this.

Heh. Really?

 

[Jotaka]

1.28 for the pound. Got to a new low.

 

[Funky Papa]

FT: UK inflation hits near two-year high

Costs for British factories have risen sharply in the aftermath of the vote to leave the EU, with input prices increasing for the first time in nearly three years.

Falls in the value of sterling since the referendum, which will make imports more expensive, mean that inflation for businesses and consumers is expected to rise throughout the year.

Sam Hill, economist at RBC Capital Markets, said the main message was that inflation “is on an upward trajectory” and Suren Thiru, head of economics at the British Chambers of Commerce, said he expected this to “be the start of a prolonged period of increasing prices”.

...

There were double-digit rises in the cost of some goods, with the price of imported food up by 10.2 per cent and imported metals up by 12.4 per cent.

The key question for companies is whether they can boost exports by enough to compensate for the increased costs.

 

[Burai]

True, but what would be the alternative here? UK politicians wouldn't take the blame for simply deciding against the No vote without a scapegoat and who else besides the EU is there to take the fall without real consequences? Foreigners and immigrants/free movement being to blame would only incite more real violence against those in the UK already from what we've seen after the referendum.

We haven't heard much grumbling about BENEFITS BRITAIN for a while. It's the scapegoat in waiting.

 

[theaface]

The key question for companies is whether they can boost exports by enough to compensate for the increased costs.

They key answer is no, no they can't.

 

[shinra-bansho]

FT: UK inflation hits near two-year high

No probs. Can sell more fish now. Best deals.

 

[Dougald]

At least we're not worrying about deflation any more, and inflation is fine as we all know wages will keep pace given the pattern of the last 20 years


I had some work done on my motorcycle last week and the price has gone up significantly given all the parts are priced in Euros

 

[Zaraki_Kenpachi]

Banks are saying they'll jump quicker if article 50 is enacted. So much for people saying they'll never leave.

 

[kmag]

They are the experts. If they feel passporting isn't worth fighting for, we should believe them.
But then again "I think we've all had enough of experts"
The vote didn't go as I'd wished, but we are where we are now.
However, I don't think Britain should bend over and take a shafting on other issues just to keep the financial passport to the EU at all costs.

FT: UK inflation hits near two-year high

Yeah, it's going to go up. A lot of the inflationary pressure has been absorbed by the falling oil price (which has started to creep up a bit but hey it's oil) and companies eating the input costs via hedging, inventory or in the case of supermarkets a case of a bit of both plus the competitive nature of the market.

but that's only going to last so long...

 

[Xando]

Can't make this shit up

Former UKIP leader and leading Brexiteer Nigel Farage refused to deny claims that he was seeking German citizenship after being spotted at the German embassy in London.

A Facebook user reportedly saw Farage — whose wife Kirsten Mehr is German — in line at the embassy and wondered if the MEP was hoping to secure dual citizenship for himself or his family.

When asked about the claims by Buzzfeed, Farage said “none of your business” and hung up the phone.

http://www.politico.eu/article/is-n...-citizenship-brexit-consequences-ukip-europe/

 

[hydrophilic attack]

Can't make this shit up


http://www.politico.eu/article/is-n...-citizenship-brexit-consequences-ukip-europe/

He's following up Brexit with Brexit

 

[CTLance]

Can't make this shit up
http://www.politico.eu/article/is-n...-citizenship-brexit-consequences-ukip-europe/

Are you fucking kidding me? If, and that's a big if, but if that's true, then there are truly no words to convey just what I am thinking of him.

I propose he becomes the official court jester of the EU. I think that would actually be a great bargaining chip for May. Maybe throw in BoJo for a twofer.