KonradLaw
Member
Oh God, I love this analogy
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The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM
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Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
so, until Brexit-Brexit happens, I don't think much will happen to unemployment. Right now, we're still a member of the EU and so on, so the only real shock has been a shock to expectations of future growth, and obviously the exchange rate, and then also a much more industry-specific shock for people like academics and so on who were direct recipients of EU funding. People don't normally hire on the basis of future growth because hiring is pretty flexible and you hire as and when you need it, so reduced growth expectations probably won't lead to dismissals (yet). What's going to be happening now is: firms that were heavily dependent on a particular exchange rate will be hit hard and cut staff, and everyone else will stagnate, and that will probably be the status quo until Brexit-Brexit. So I'd expect unemployment to remain not far off the current level with a mild rise, which would be a sharp contrast to the falling unemployment we had coming into this. That picture of stagnation should be clear by October when we've had a full post-Brexit quarter - I'd bet on unemployment being ~5.5% by then, so poor but not atrocious. That'd still be evidence of Brexit, though.
If you're talking actual upward-spiralling unemployment, that will wait for Brexit-Brexit, I think (aside from specific industries like construction). It's not like investing or the housing market that is strongly forward looking.
QuicheFontaine
Member
5.5% unemployment is "poor, but not atrocious" now?
lol you know what, I take it back, clearly no pessimists in this thread!
lol you know what, I take it back, clearly no pessimists in this thread!
FREUDE SCHÖNER GÖTTERFUNKEN
The EU. More united than the states, greater than Britain. Truly God's chosen country.
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Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Slightly off topic: I can't see the picture in Kingsnake's post. Not the first time, whenever someone posts something from that domain it seems to refuse to load. Could it be that Facebook cdn links time out after a while? Or is my mobile ISP doing some fancy traffic shaping?
Might be the mobile ISP. It's a medal table for Olympics with EU added up together on the 1st place. I thought it's a good joke and relates with the Olympics related discussions from here.
Clear
CliffyB's Cock Holster
I'm a full employment guy, if you ask me employment has been poor for decades.
They've also spent decades legislating methods by which to massage the employment figures to make them seem better than they actually are. 5.5% is not reflective of the reality when they have so many methods at their disposal to remove people from that number. Employment and not taking the majority of household income from benefits are far from the same thing.
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Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
The ONS use the Labour Force Survey, iirc. You simply need to not have a job, have actively sought work in the last four weeks, and be able to start work in the next two weeks. It doesn't have all the bullshit clouding it that the claimant count does, which is why nobody uses the claimant count figures excepting disingenuous politicians.
Claimant count unemployment is something like 2.5% at the moment.
ultratruman
Banned
Meanwhile...
Why are they still promoting Brexit? They won!
Great glorious nation of Kazakhstan into medal top ten.
Frankfurter
Member
How about you quit shitposting your nonsense. YoY figures are absolutely worthless in this context.
UcchedavÄda
Member
For those still wondering what Brexit means, the answer is apparently Donald Trump:
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/donald-trump-says-hes-now-8657515
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/donald-trump-says-hes-now-8657515
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Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
If you don't bother responding to other people, this just looks like drive-by shit-posting. I don't how well that will go with the mods, but I can tell you from experience it's probably not worth it.
Enormous amount of overlap
It's not at all surprising. There has been very little material change in the short-term for households, real wages are slightly higher, unemployment slightly lower, the economy slightly bigger and Britain is still in the EU for the moment. However households are going to be more pessimistic over their long-term prospects due to Brexit. It's the purchases which require households to asses their future disposable income, such as cars or houses, that will reveal the real damage to household confidence.
He doesn't care. He'll be back posting a single line with a similar "thought Brexit has doomed us" the next time an economic indicator isn't absolutely horrible, all the while never mentioning any problematic indicator.
Now these are rankings i like. European Union is bestest union.
Trumpets
Member
Debate is impossible with you lot, since you just change the goalposts whenever figures emerge that go against your apocalyptic narrative.
Immediately after the Brexit vote I remember seeing the plummeting FTSE 100 graph posted here which apparently demonstrated what a terrible mistake the UK had made. Once it started recovering however the FTSE 100 was no longer allowed as admissable evedence and it was the FTSE 250 that really mattered, because reasons.
Well, now that's also doing better than before the vote and anyone who refers to it doesn't know what they are talking about.
I've no doubt that if the pound started shooting back up it would magically stop being relevent as an indicator and you'd all find something else to moan about, like the price of cheese or the decline in honey bee numbers.
If it's 'problematic indicators' you're after, this thread hardly needs me to add to the tsunami of gloom.
Once the TPP is ratified, the EU will be consigned to the Olympic dustbin of history.
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Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
That's... not how it works. Both the FTSE 100 and the FTSE 250 were affected, but in different ways. In general, as the pound goes down, it becomes cheaper to buy shares in companies denominated in pounds, so there's more demand for them from foreign investors, so their share price (in pounds) rises. In general, as expected earnings go down, the dividends expected on shares fall, so the share price falls. The FTSE 100 contains some very big companies which operate multinationally, as well as some British companies. The FTSE 250 also has both, but the balance of purely-British to multinational is tilted in favour of purely-British as you include increasingly smaller firms.
I and many others in this thread are positing that the effect of Brexit was firstly to hurt the expected earnings of purely-British companies, and secondly to send the pound falling. So what should we see if we are right? Well, we should see the FTSE 100 and the FTSE 250 rise in pound terms. Why? Because the pound has fallen sharply in value. We should see the FTSE 100 fall in USD terms. Why? Because the pound has fallen against the USD, and expected earnings have fallen because there are a mix of multinationals in there. We should see the FTSE 250 fall *sharply* in USD terms. Why? Because the pound has fallen against the USD, and expected earnings have fallen *sharply* because there are less multinationals as a proportion. All of those expectations we have observed, so the starting hypothesis is either right or not yet proven wrong.
So instead, let's now take your supposition: that Brexit has had no effect on future earnings, and the pound has fallen for some unrelated reasons. What should we expect to see? We should expect to see the FTSE 100 and 250 rise in pound terms, because the pound is cheaper. Okay, that did happen. But that happens in both "bad Brexit" and "good Brexit" worlds. So, let's go further. We should expect to see the FTSE 100 and 250 stay constant in USD terms, because Brexit had no effect on earnings and so the dividends are worth just as much after Brexit as before it. Has this happened? No. The FTSE 100 has fallen 1.1% in USD terms. The FTSE 250 has fallen 7.9% in USD terms. So your theory (Brexit had no effect on earnings) produces a conclusion inconsistent with the data, and must be wrong.
So... we're left with the conclusion that Brexit was, in fact, bad. It's not "because reasons", it's because of the argument I've given above. So please, either engage with this argument or leave the thread and stop shit-posting.
Your other two metrics were unemployment stats that only included a weeks' worth of Brexit, and retail sales that... also only included a weeks worth' of Brexit. Employment and retail aren't forward-looking; I don't plan my retail purchases now on what my income will be in six months time (except for very big-ticket items like a television, which are a small fraction of retail purchases). That means they contain essentially no useful information about Brexit and we can't make any conclusion either way.
Go read Economics 101. It's not rocket science.
They already stole their ideals about refugees.
paradox121
Member
I will say that, personally at least, after months of garbage and feeling like this whole country has imploded, the Olympics has been just the kind of positivity and togetherness that I needed to see.
There was a stage during the run up to the Referendum that the UK flag basically verged on confederate flag levels of disturbing nationalism (as if everyone who wanted to remain identified solely with the EU flag), but seeing it raised up, with the national anthem, time after time over the past few weeks - it's been nice.
And, hey, after that, GBBO comes back. That's some more feel-good Britishness right there.
There was a stage during the run up to the Referendum that the UK flag basically verged on confederate flag levels of disturbing nationalism (as if everyone who wanted to remain identified solely with the EU flag), but seeing it raised up, with the national anthem, time after time over the past few weeks - it's been nice.
And, hey, after that, GBBO comes back. That's some more feel-good Britishness right there.
Oh god I can hardly wait for Bake Off. Love it.
Chmpocalypse
Blizzard
They're low-information voters. That's the nice way of phrasing it.
You do realise we have yet to leave the EU. Just the idea of it happening was enough to trigger off a whole bunch of economic shit. When Article 50 comes about then you'll see the real storm.
Royal_Phalanx
Member
Impossible to reason with my dad on Brexit. He believes everything Leave has said including the ridiculed 350 million figure and keeps saying 'look at how many immigrants are coming in, they're gonna take your jobs so leaving is good for you', 'the EU courts stop terrorists from being deported (the ECHR has nothing to do with the EU, genius, and you shouldn't change a whole legal framework just because a couple of egregiously bad people use it to delay deportation, and not going to leave the convention anyway so the same thing will be in place)', and 'Juncker has gone too far!', and that 'if the EU refuse single market access without conceding on immigration and EU law then trade with someone else!'
Irony- he's an immigrant and not even a citizen so can't vote. Point this out to him and he basically says 'I contribute and pay taxes, etc, EU people move here for free shit and don't work'. Then again he said Trump is a smart guy who will make America great again so I wouldn't be surprised at his total lack of logic on this.
Also I should add the financial markets think full, hard Brexit will never happen. If UKIP gets what they want then the economy is fucked.
Irony- he's an immigrant and not even a citizen so can't vote. Point this out to him and he basically says 'I contribute and pay taxes, etc, EU people move here for free shit and don't work'. Then again he said Trump is a smart guy who will make America great again so I wouldn't be surprised at his total lack of logic on this.
Also I should add the financial markets think full, hard Brexit will never happen. If UKIP gets what they want then the economy is fucked.
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
There goes the neighbourhood.
That's not good. Not good at all.
EDIT: In case anyone is wondering as to why this is bad news, this is essentially the City of London conceding that access to the EU market will be restricted as a result of Brexit, and that in doing so, a section of the financial passport of services they provide look set to removed from London and moved elsewhere in the EU. And this is assuming that such a trade deal stated in the piece is accepted by all EU members states and one country doesn't go 'lol no' and blocks it, so that the UK loses the rest of it's financial passport in the process.
SporeCrawler
Member
The point here is that even switzerland does accept freedom of movement (and if they dont all contracts will get void) and that switzerland does not have passporting.
UK will not get the passporting rights and that alone will hurt the UK economy tremendously
QuicheFontaine
Member
I like the sound of a beefed up deal. But it had better be British beef.
King Gilga
Member
Ever since I came back to this country more than a decade ago there's been one constant for me.
One thing that was my anchor, that I knew would never change.
But it did.
Today on my way back from shopping, I stopped by the chicken shop to get a steak burger, and the words that came out of the guys mouth stuck makes me cring.
£1.10 please, £1.10, my whole life a steak burger has only been £1, I didn't know any other way of life. I was so shocked I couldn't even say anything, I assumed I misheard him and just gave him a fiver, when I got home I counted my change, nope, only £3.90.
Man fuck you brexiters, you ruined everything.
One thing that was my anchor, that I knew would never change.
But it did.
Today on my way back from shopping, I stopped by the chicken shop to get a steak burger, and the words that came out of the guys mouth stuck makes me cring.
£1.10 please, £1.10, my whole life a steak burger has only been £1, I didn't know any other way of life. I was so shocked I couldn't even say anything, I assumed I misheard him and just gave him a fiver, when I got home I counted my change, nope, only £3.90.
Man fuck you brexiters, you ruined everything.
Royal_Phalanx
Member
This didn't need to happen
-Plasma Reus-
Service guarantees member status
They wouldn't listen. They are immune to facts.
Royal_Phalanx
Member
Brexiters blocking common sense thinking entirely because 'dem immigrants taking our jerbs', who would have thunk
ultratruman
Banned
'City Abandons Hope'
I thought this headline was about Aleppo.
I thought this headline was about Aleppo.
DarthMasta
Member
I'm not sure what everyone was expecting? Once Brexit was voted the loss of passporting was pretty much assured, at least on anything short of a "Just kidding!" or complete 180º turn from the British voters into the biggest supporters of the EU.
If I was to hazard a guess, it was because people were either confident that Brexit wouldn't actually go ahead or they'd take a deal that retain the financial passport for the UK. Now that this is out in the open, I think the penny will start to drop on how serious the situation is for people who will listen or read this.
I don't think it will change many minds. Too many muppets convinced that things were better before we joined EEC/EU and that we will be fine after we leave.
"We're big enough to go it alone and the EU needs us more than we need them, dontcha know? Let's trade with the whole world and not be limited by Europe!"
Add a reference to German car manufacturers, maybe something about markets "settling down" eventually (settling to an all time low!) and there's the entire economic argument for Brexit.
I agree with what you're saying mate, but (what I really meant to say was) I was referring to the people who know that the restriction or loss of the Financial passport for the UK as a result of Brexit is seriously bad news for the UK economy in the sense that "Oh shit, this is actually going to be a trainwreck".
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