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The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM
- Thread starter Hasney
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lol
Theonik
Member
To be fair, Farage is not dumb. He's just an opportunistic cunt. You'd have to be dumb not to hedge your bets at this point.
PdotMichael
Banned
What exports?
I genuinely hope someone picks up on this in the media and rubs it in the face of anyone from UKIP. Their great leader is a wolf in sheep's clothing and is now doing a runner. What a two-faced twat.
Makes sense. His wife and kids will have to leave anyway to stop foreigners from taking British Jobs. He might as well follow them.
Fishermans Friend
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
Farage, apparently.
Royal_Phalanx
Member
So Nigel is the equivalent of a hit and run driver or something? Robs everyone's EU citizenship and still wants the benefits for himself and his children? What about everyone else's children? Also, he knocked down the economy and is now frantically driving away.
I am sorry, but: Our intelligence agency is neither capable enough to spot, nor well-funded enough to hire (or train) talent of that caliber.
You'd think even if he was seeking German citizenship that he'd still deny it. The fact that he didn't is pretty astonishing given his character.
This is the same Nigel Farage that's earned half a million pounds as an MEP, will probably take at least another quarter of a million before we've left and has the gall to just turn up to his job, paid for by the tax payer, and just obstruct and sneer his way through his working day.
So, yeah, double standards is what Nigel is all about.
IdreamofHIME
Member
Can anyone who understands the economic mess say if this shit will get any better soonish?
44baht, what a mess. I was getting 52 just this past February.
Frankfurter
Member
Ok UK, you got us. You'll get whatever you demand if you just make sure that Farage stays away from Germany.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
EFTA membership and we'll only send our Johnson.
Halph n Halph
Member
Sorry, but those terms are unacceptable.
QuicheFontaine
Member
Oi, don't go bringing that non-pessimism in here!
There's a difference between pessimism and realism. This is like seeing a tsunami on the horizon and thinking the waves will attract surfers and boost the economy.
War Peaceman
You're a big guy.
QuicheFontaine
Member
There is, and there's a lot of pessimists in here! Remember the "dead cat bounce"? What happened there?
Oh balls to that analogy. The most pessimistic forecasts I've seen talk about us growing a bit less than we otherwise would have. The island's not going to sink beneath the waves. Yeesh.
Edit:
So too early to say things are looking pretty good. But not too early for proclamations of doom. Got it.
I'm pretty sure this has been explained multiple times but the FTSE 100 and 250 going up is offset by the value of GBP dropping.
So you're just going to ignore the value of the pound sterling here?
Markets are trading as if Brexit is unlikely to happen. In fact, a whole lot of London is convinced we won't leave the EU. So it's deeply ironic using those numbers as an indication of a positive Brexit.
Looking at the jobs market in July, mere days after the Brexit vote, is futil. It's the equivalent of a PM trying to take credit for the economy in their first month of office.
PJV3
Member
What exactly are pro Brexit people confident about, there isn't any official plan yet.
It could be good or bad, but it a bit dishonest to claim the status quo(still inside the EU) as proof of success outside it.
Let's see Auntie May reveal the type of Bomb we voted to detonate at least.
It could be good or bad, but it a bit dishonest to claim the status quo(still inside the EU) as proof of success outside it.
Let's see Auntie May reveal the type of Bomb we voted to detonate at least.
I love it when brexiters start with the stock market is booming shtick, it's literally a neon tattoo on the forehead saying "I have no clue what I'm talking about"
Aside from the currency devaluation encouraging unprecedented levels of foreign investment in the suddenly 'cheap' stocks. The FTSE is up because the underlying economy is so fucking weak there's literally sod all for the institutional investors to put money in, so in hopes of getting any return they're investing in dividend bearing stocks. Interest rates are practically zero, gilts are giving 0 or negative returns, commercial property funds are not liquid and the return has fallen through the floor, and the currency devaluation means moving or expanding their investment into foreign markets is initially too expensive.
The FTSE at the minute is a panic bubble. As a whole it has no real relation with the actual or expected performance of the businesses in it because the factors pushing investment into it are mostly external.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
The FTSE index is denominated in pounds. If the value of the pound falls, then shares become relatively cheaper to buy for foreign investors because their currency purchases more pounds to buy shares with, and so more foreign investors are willing to spend than if the pound had never fallen, driving up the (pound) value of the index.
On June 21st, the average GBP-USD exchange rate was 1.4671. Today, the average is 1.2957. That means the value of the GBP has fallen against the USD (as an example) by 11.3%. Given that the FTSE 250 has only risen by 3.4% in nominal terms, that implies that the value of the FTSE as denominated in dollars (although this will hold in all non-GBP currencies because of the arbitrage condition, and is therefore the 'real' value of the FTSE) has fallen by 7.9%, which is an enormous fall.
That implies that the expected lifetime real profits of the average FTSE company has fallen by 7.9% as a result of Brexit. This doesn't even include the fact that a number of investors are still betting on us never leaving (just under a third of them), which means the actual expected lifetime real profit decrease if Brexit was super-double-hyper-confirmed would be an even steeper drop.
With respect, you do not understand what you are talking about and are simply highlighting your own ignorance.
EDIT: And as kmag says above, where else do you put money at the moment in the British economy? Government bonds carry essentially no return when interest rates are so low, the construction sector is absolutely dead in the water with the loss of labour and investment plus the fact the UK can expect to see less foreign purchases in the housing market, and you can't go abroad. The FTSE is about the only avenue left, so it's being propped up by the fact everyone is running away from everyone else. Even when you factor all of that in, the real value fell by 7.9%.
Trumpets doesn't care. They'll keep drive-by posting to reaffirm their worldview and vanish before the wave of refutation comes.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
And as for employment, we just got the figures for the month ending June. That means there's only a week of post-Brexit world to three weeks of pre-Brexit, and the economy had been steadily improving until the referendum, so it's difficult to draw any conclusions. There is a little silver lining in there in that the fundamentals appeared to be okay going into this and that's obviously better than if we attempted to do this with an already poor economy, but we won't have any strong evidence of impact on unemployment either way until mid-October, given the speed the labour market moves at.
I reserve the right to bookmark all these posts about "realism not pessimism" come mid-October, mind.
I reserve the right to bookmark all these posts about "realism not pessimism" come mid-October, mind.
Make sure you are still here when article 50 is invoked
Don't forget to stab your eyes out considering how blind-sighted you seem to be about this.
Don't you think mid-October will be a bit too early for that?
CyclopsRock
Member
Errrr, guys
Case closed.
Case closed.
Errrr, guys
Case closed.
Can't argue with that. Gerxit WHEN?
FlammableD
Banned
Good ol' Russian tactics right here. "We don't need them, we're good enough on our own. Look at our medals".
I think in general Britain doesn't need the EU in any way. It's just that I think it's much better off as a member, but there's a huge difference between being better off as a member and needing to be a member. Same with NATO, Britain doesn't need to be a member (unlike, say, Estonia or Latvia).
A statement like that is purely meant to frame the debate in such a way that anti-European people win by default. The argument isn't whether Britain can 'cope' on its own, it's whether or not it's the best course of action.
Meanwhile...
Beautiful.
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