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The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM

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accel

accel

Member
DavidDesu said:
IF the EU can offer hope that Scotland can get preferential treatment to join the EU as a result of this then it feels highly highly likely it will be a Yes vote next time. Speaking of the EU they seem to be pretty positive to Scotland in the last few days. Kind words towards us. ... I find it hard to imagine that a good deal cannot be made to make it relatively simple for Scotland to continue with it's EU membership and be allowed to carry on as it has done so for decades.

I have more faith in that happening than I do of anything good coming from Scotland remaining hostage in the UK with twits like Johnson and Farage in the driving seat for generations!
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Regardless of my general support for Leave, I want to say that I completely understand the difficulty you and your people are in. It really sucks to vote on something important and then having the potentially vital circumstances changed the day after against your wishes. Damn politics.
 
K

klonere

Banned
CmHx4H5WkAAtAHb.jpg:small

CmHx4IGWQAANwXB.jpg:small


BLvkHbg.gif
 
A

Arksy

Member
Par Score said:
Polling got the GEs right in 2005 and 2010, got every London Mayoral election right, got the last two Scottish Parliament elections right, got the Scottish Indy Ref right and got Corbyn's win right.

Online polls got the EU Ref right too, just phone pollsters were way off. The 2015 GE was a disaster, but apart from that pollsters have a pretty good record in recent history.
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Fair enough. I'm happy to say I have no idea. In Australia pollsters have generally been very reliable. It was interesting that I read a lot of articles in the months leading up to the election saying that since telephone polling was more accurate in the GE last year, they would be more accurate this year as well.
 
Q

QuicheFontaine

Member
Fantastapotamus said:
You know Scots, maybe you could join Austria? We are much alike, we both have a "bigger brother" country we kinda don't like that much and we both have the supperior dialect in our language. And we could use some people who are good a soccer. You would have to settle with a bunch of stupid politicians though.

Just sayin.
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You're talking about Scotland?
 
A

Alanae

Member
blackcrane said:
What I meant to say is this: Scotland already had an independence referendum. They voted Stay. Yes, it's now different and the margin on that Stay wasn't big either, but it happened and it was Stay. Let's even say we have a second independence referendum, ignoring all the difficulties from the Westminster. Will the dissatisfaction with Brexit be enough to convert what was formerly Stay into Leave-and-join-EU? I am not sure, it might be another close call, especially with Scotland doing worse than the rest of UK economically.
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A significant amount of people voted in order to stay in the EU.
I don't think it's strange to think that they would be doing that again this time.
 
A

Auctopus

Member
PJV3 said:
If this turns into a disaster then the right will be fucked for a long time.
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No they won't. The average voter doesn't recognize political wings. They're tricksters and the type of people who fell for it this time are in denial and they will fall for it again.
 
F

ferrasvansen

Member
Xieldos said:
There was another poll on Monday that suggested Yes was at 59% and that figure included don't knows.
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That was not a real poll, just a website one. Every poll since the Referendum have shown similar results to this. I suspect when things actually happen and we get ignored it will swing even more, that combined with yahoo Boris or any of the other candidates hugely disliked here it's bye bye.
 
U

ultratruman

Banned
Meadows said:
it's not really, if they did anything else it would - in a weird sense - kind of like the EU annexing part of the UK.

That's an extreme way of putting it, but that's essentially what it is.
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That's an extremely wrong way of putting it, and pretty insulting to countries that have suffered real annexation.
 
E

EdwardTeach

Member
travisbickle said:
The arts will be fine, rich people have bad taste. Have you ever heard Cameron trying to talk about culture?
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Not sure if you were being serious, but a) who do you think buys the expensive seats or actually buys art, and b) where do you think the money for arts funding will come from in a recession (already massively cut under "austerity")?
 
S

Spaghetti

Member
PJV3 said:
If this turns into a disaster then the right will be fucked for a long time.
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I'd love to think so, but with how right wing our press is, they'll likely find a way to successfully blame it on the left (sowing the seeds with Corbyn) or some other group.
 
BibiMaghoo

BibiMaghoo

Member
ultratruman said:
https://twitter.com/AlanRoden/status/748140444073234432

CmHtwU5WQAEtgqW.jpg


This is mad.
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It's pretty great for Pro-remain voters.

The more of a fuss EU make about kicking us out and not making any deals with anyone, including Scotland, the more democratically impossible it is made for a Brexit to occur. If Scotland are forced to exit as a result when they voted against it, then the will of the people has not been served. I think the EU are going super hardline to make us all regret the state of affairs and change mind, just like when sterling crashed as we made preperations to take on the Euro in the 90's, then changed our minds once we got a taste of the damage.
 
F

ferrasvansen

Member
NekoFever said:
If we get a shit deal in any negotiations the press will just blame the EU. Our politicians will get away with it.
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General elections usually contain a very different electorate, a large number of people who voted here will never vote in a general election, you can be rest assured there will be blame attributed to the conservatives and UKIP, how much remains to be seen.
 
F

Fantastapotamus

Wrong about commas, wrong about everything
Jimbob Smalls said:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36660133

Things look to be calming down a tad.
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From the article you linked

Analysts also warned that the rally of the past couple of days might be short-lived.

"Stocks and the pound are continuing to firm but the post-Brexit reality will bite sooner or later," said Joe Rundle, head of trading at ETX Capital.

"What we're seeing in the FTSE is hope in Britain being able to ride it out by remaining part of the single market. This looks like wishful thinking."
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F

Funky Papa

FUNK-Y-PPA-4
ultratruman said:
https://twitter.com/AlanRoden/status/748140444073234432

CmHtwU5WQAEtgqW.jpg


This is mad.
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kami_sama said:
Oh, fuck off Rajoy. This isn't the same situation as Catalonia you twat.
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As much as I hate Rajoy, he's dead right.

Negotiating with Scotland before a proper declaration of independence would be a severe violation of the UK's sovereignty and goes well against the EU's mission.

Then, you also need to keep in mind that admission is debated on an individual basis under conditions that vary for each country. Each member state is different. There's not a universal form for European membership. Scotland will have to declare independence and then fill a whole lot of paperwork, no matter how accelerated the process is. Negotiations will and should take a while.

There's no possible "out of UK and into the EU" situation.
 
L

liquidtmd

Banned
BibiMaghoo said:
It's pretty great for Pro-remain voters.

The more of a fuss EU make about kicking us out and not making any deals with anyone, including Scotland, the more democratically impossible it is made for a Brexit to occur. If Scotland are forced to exit as a result when they voted against it, then the will of the people has not been served. I think the EU are going super hardline to make us all regret the state of affairs and change mind, just like when sterling crashed as we made preperations to take on the Euro in the 90's, then changed our minds once we got a taste of the damage.
Click to expand...

Correct
 
U

ultratruman

Banned
BibiMaghoo said:
It's pretty great for Pro-remain voters.

The more of a fuss EU make about kicking us out and not making any deals with anyone, including Scotland, the more democratically impossible it is made for a Brexit to occur. If Scotland are forced to exit as a result when they voted against it, then the will of the people has not been served. I think the EU are going super hardline to make us all regret the state of affairs and change mind, just like when sterling crashed as we made preperations to take on the Euro in the 90's, then changed our minds once we got a taste of the damage.
Click to expand...

I think you're letting wishful thinking get the better of you; there was no referendum for switching to the Euro and new PM will almost definitely be a Brexiteer, committed to the cause.
 
G

GamerMax73

Member
ultratruman said:
https://twitter.com/AlanRoden/status/748140444073234432

CmHtwU5WQAEtgqW.jpg


This is mad.
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Makes sense to me. (Sorry fellow Scots (I consider myself a fellow countryman now ;))).

Scotland needs to suseed from the United Kingdom and be recognised as an independent nation, seat at the UN?, first. Then it as an independent nation it can, like Turkey, apply for EU membership.

It's understandable that Spain doesn't want to risk recognising and having formal negotiations with a break away state that hasn't gained formal legal acceptance for independence.

While the circumstances are now a little different thanks to the Brexit mess it does give them a headache of Catalonia and the Basque region.
 
M

Maledict

Member
Funky Papa said:
As much as I hate Rajoy, he's dead right.

Negotiating with Scotland before a proper declaration of independence would be a severe violation of the UK sovereignty and goes well against the EU's mission.

Then, you also need to keep in mind that admission is debated on an individual basis under conditions that vary for each country. Each member state is different. There's not a universal form for European membership. Scotland will have to declare independence and then fullfill a whole lot of paperwork, no matter how accelerated the process is.

There's no possible "out of UK and into the EU" situation.
Click to expand...

Yep - I've been saying this for some time, and not sure why people thought otherwise.

It is impossible for the EU to act in the way people describe. It breaks every convention of statehood in the west - we are talking fundamentals that go back to the Treaty of Westphalia. The EU can't just start hacking off bits of other countries in this way, it would destabilise *everything*. Brexit is bad enough, encouraging long term parts of stable democracies to just unilaterally go independent would be a catastrophe.

Hopefully, between Scotland and the City we can make sure this insanity ends and that Scottish independence doesn't have to be something fought over in the mud whilst the UK collapses around us.
 
BibiMaghoo

BibiMaghoo

Member
ultratruman said:
I think you're letting wishful thinking get the better of you; there was no referendum for switching to the Euro and new PM will almost definitely be a Brexiteer, committed to the cause.
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I don't think that matters much to be honest, we have cases where refs have been ignored or cast again, I think it's about the people really. The EU wants the British to WANT to be in, so they need to make us feel the heat for the time being. The new PM will be a Brexiter, but they won't instigate it for years if at all. I was very pessimistic about the outcome, but the more I see each day, the clearer it becomes that it simply cannot actually happen.
 
jufonuk

jufonuk

not tag worthy
You not what scares me the most out of all of this situation . My wife's on the way back home from holiday I been looking after my baby daughter.need to tidy up before she gets home .
 
Z

Zaph

Member
ultratruman said:
https://twitter.com/AlanRoden/status/748140444073234432

CmHtwU5WQAEtgqW.jpg


This is mad.
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No, this is great.

Scotland having (or at least appearing to have) a very difficult time remaining in the EU means more ammunition against the Brexit.

We ain't leavin

PJV3 said:
If this turns into a disaster then the right will be fucked for a long time.
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I think they're already fucked and know it.

If someone with common sense and a basis in reality gets into power, then we either stay or go EEA - cue lots of very angry Leavers.

If an ambitious, populist nutjob going for a all-or-nothing approach by championing anti-immigration at all costs and sticking one to the bankers by giving London to the French gets in, a Tory split will be the least of their problems - the country will basically collapse and something akin to a civil war wouldn't surprise me.

I don't see how the Tories get out of this mess. If Labour cannot capitalise on this, every single one of their MP's should quit politics for good.
 
accel

accel

Member
ferrasvansen said:
Reality starting to sink in....

On Britain's future over the next few years:
Optimistic: 44%
Pessimistic: 47%
(via YouGvo / 27 - 28 Jun)
Click to expand...

Perhaps a more useful poll (same source):

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/748141903619723264

Those who voted Remain think the next year will be worse both for the country as a whole and for them personally, those who voted Leave think the next year will be about the same for them personally with slightly more optimism for the country.
 
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