More Fun To Compute
Member
I'm sure some people in England will be willing to trade places with them although we can't guarantee that they will not be attacked for being Scottish immigrants.
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The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM
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I'm sure some people in England will be willing to trade places with them although we can't guarantee that they will not be attacked for being Scottish immigrants.
SymbiantXenos
Member
[OT3] Norway will we be getting any 'deal' from the EU.
Really? Hell I want to move to Scotland and vote to break away from this idiot house myself
And 48 is much bigger number than 38.
I read through the entire thread today, there is precisely one post suggesting the old vote is somehow worth less.
And if the UK fails we did it to ourselves. The rest of the EU will hopefully get some positives from this, because in the shirt term we've done some damage to them as well.
48% is an even bigger number for those UK wide voting to Remain.... not sure what you're trying to say, but I've seen some right wing/Anti independence commentators in the last few days try this one on, decrying the undemocratic nature of disagreeing with 38% of the population, completely disregarding the much greater democratic will of the other 60%!
Clever.
thats fine then. Difficult to get both immigration controls and free trade, priority is immigration. Solution - leave and have no trade deal. Everyone is happy - right?
god fucking hell
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
|OUT 3| Volkswagen über alles
HazySaiyan
Banned
Ragnar Blackmane
Member
Every single voting area voted for remain. EVERY SINGLE one. Think about that. 60+% is a clear victory/majority in votes/elections and if not a single voting area/constituency/county/whatever has a different result, then that's one hell of a message. As is, there is almost a 2/3 majority in Scottland for remain.
Also consider that a part of the leave voters in Scottland are misguided supporters of Scottish independence that thought "if we vote to leave EU then we will get another indypendence referendum". An attitude that Sturgeon has been fighting very hard before the referendum (because if there hadn't been a clear Scottish pro remain vote, she wouldn't have had a mandate to go for another indyref).
accel
Member
What I meant to say is this: Scotland already had an independence referendum. They voted Stay. Yes, it's now different and the margin on that Stay wasn't big either, but it happened and it was Stay. Let's even say we have a second independence referendum, ignoring all the difficulties from the Westminster. Will the dissatisfaction with Brexit be enough to convert what was formerly Stay into Leave-and-join-EU? I am not sure, it might be another close call, especially with Scotland doing worse than the rest of UK economically.
Yes, I agree. It just doesn't seem all that clear to me that the result would be Leave (the UK).
If everyone including May stepped forward and said they were all for turning the tide, it would make about as much sense as what they're saying about Europe right now.
My wife is Japanese - do I get automatic right to work over there? Not sure I want to be here anymore.
ultratruman
Banned
|OUT3| Britannia Waves the Rules
Thornton Reed
Member
What did boris say when getting into that taxi the other day about access to the single market and the free moment of people?
from the bbc
from the bbc
Thornton Reed
Member
haha brilliant
I'm sure that's coming
Polling organisations haven't been doing a great job recently. Probably best that they keep their head down
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
It's beautiful 🙌
Wasn't the main reason for "stay" that they were promised to stay in the EU?
afaik the vote was more or less "stay in the EU (because of the UK) or leave the EU (because of UK)"
As I said before:
Basque Country is not a problem anymore since ETA has been defeated.
The last poll (March 2016) from the own Basque Gov is 65% against the independence. Cataluña is slowly going that way too.
Spain will certainly veto the entrance of a non-independent Scotland in the EU. Scotland should be independent BEFORE applying to the EU otherwise they are out at the same time than the rest of the UK
fabricated backlash
Member
The only consolation I get out of this.
KampferZeon
Neo Member
Interesting facts about the concept of majority mandate in this referendum
500K deaths in england and wales last year http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/health/12158930/Biggest-annual-rise-in-deaths-for-almost-fifty-years-prompts-warnings-of-crisis-in-elderly-care.html
Leave 52% actually won by 1269K number of votes
So in 3 years time, when uk finally exits the EU, ...
Who knows, maybe the majority has changed to pro eu ( as u know the statistics trend is over 60 voters are pro leave, and the young is pro eu )
Good news for social scientists
PrivateRyan
Member
Given how polling orgs completely ballsed up the last GE and now this, I'm not sure how much merit that would have anyway.
accel
Member
Who knows what was the main reason people voted Stay. Perhaps for some it was like you describe and they voted Stay because of the EU, but others voted Stay for other reasons and who knows what the breakdown is.
Considering there were dozens of conferences and talks about why pollsters got it so wrong, I would be interested to hear their thoughts now that this one was incorrect as well.
Still think pushing for a full on second independence referendum within the short term is not the best play. We really have to see the mid-term fallout, and maybe around 2020 we gather our thoughts on the aftermath and push it or not.
Only situation I'd go for it sooner would be if we were guaranteed a place in the EU, which seems unlikely.
Only situation I'd go for it sooner would be if we were guaranteed a place in the EU, which seems unlikely.
ultratruman
Banned
Eh, the polls were more varied this time around relative to the GE. Some accurate, some less so.
Nobody really knows the main reason but this study would suggest that it was simple financials:
http://www.scottishreferendumstudy.com/files/2015/01/RHUL-slides.pdf
Most people already thought that the UK would vote to leave the EU and most people thought they would be worse off under independence.
jufonuk
not tag worthy
No I figure we this out.
We will take the Norway deal with limited passporting for banks. EU trade and movement of people .
Pay a tarrif . EU the funds to us.
Banks find ways to loophole trading Paris Frankfurt gets stronger so does London and Edinburgh. But the EU hold the cards.
We can trade with EU and outside to.
Meanwhile murdoch been waiting on the wings. BBC is disbanded and he buys it out , controls the media. You think the sun and times were bad imagine if the BBC were as bad .
So what ? In this new deal we won't be number two in the EU partners but by ebough to influence people . Also outside the EU. If mudorch has the way to control the population . Distrupt votes and cause fear. He could spread it across Europe.
Mother fuckers better call in James Bond. To stop this
We will take the Norway deal with limited passporting for banks. EU trade and movement of people .
Pay a tarrif . EU the funds to us.
Banks find ways to loophole trading Paris Frankfurt gets stronger so does London and Edinburgh. But the EU hold the cards.
We can trade with EU and outside to.
Meanwhile murdoch been waiting on the wings. BBC is disbanded and he buys it out , controls the media. You think the sun and times were bad imagine if the BBC were as bad .
So what ? In this new deal we won't be number two in the EU partners but by ebough to influence people . Also outside the EU. If mudorch has the way to control the population . Distrupt votes and cause fear. He could spread it across Europe.
Mother fuckers better call in James Bond. To stop this
Apparently online polls were actually fairly accurate of the leave result.
The problem was, no one trusted them because of the precedent which the GE set.
Not really. Even the worst ones were only 5% out. I'm expecting a bigger change in people's stances than that.
A large part of the No vote was telling people the only way to guarantee Scotland's place in the EU was with a No vote and keeping it part of the UK. Many people who didn't care either way but who had good jobs reliant on EU trade were pretty much won to the No camp on this one issue over and above anything else.
Things have fundamentally changed, and anecdotal evidence suggests a lot of those people firmly changing their minds towards a Yes vote now.
IF the EU can offer hope that Scotland can get preferential treatment to join the EU as a result of this then it feels highly highly likely it will be a Yes vote next time. Speaking of the EU they seem to be pretty positive to Scotland in the last few days. Kind words towards us. Sure it's a complex issue but Scotland is hardly some third world country, as much as many like to proclaim it would be outside of the UK (which is heading to lose so much of it's wealth and status the way things are going). Scotland already conforms to every EU rule and this is a very new situation never encountered before. I find it hard to imagine that a good deal cannot be made to make it relatively simple for Scotland to continue with it's EU membership and be allowed to carry on as it has done so for decades.
I have more faith in that happening than I do of anything good coming from Scotland remaining hostage in the UK with twits like Johnson and Farage in the driving seat for generations!
There was a billion online polls all varying a lot?
They didn't balls this up. The final results were so close it could easily have gone either way - definitely within the margin of error. The GE was absolutely a cock-up, but the final few days polling was only showing a very slight remain lead, and instead we got a very slight Leave lead.
Fantastapotamus
Wrong about commas, wrong about everything
Never thought I would read this and think "Yeah, this person might be right"
I never thought I would be saying it.
Can't even be mad at France, this plan is brilliant.
Polling got the GEs right in 2005 and 2010, got every London Mayoral election right, got the last two Scottish Parliament elections right, got the Scottish Indy Ref right and got Corbyn's win right.
Online polls got the EU Ref right too, just phone pollsters were way off. The 2015 GE was a disaster, but apart from that pollsters have a pretty good record in recent history.
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PrivateRyan
Member
So there was a wide variety of polls all indicating different results? I don't see how that's helpful if that was the case.
Par Score said:
Thanks for this.
cormack12
Gold Member
Brexit |OT3| Project Tears for Fears
Well main ones I imagine the bbc were on about.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36648769
But yeah, some were off.
BibiMaghoo
Member
Yes, and 52 is not most of 100, it is greater than half and a technical majority, it is not nearly all of the whole. It is not even close.
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