• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM

Status
Not open for further replies.

chadskin

Member
Again, the UK won't continue to pay into the EU budget without preferential market access of some kind. It just won't happen, there's no incentive to. Politics is all about finding compromises. If the EU won't then the UK economy will suffer even more, but the UK will not pay into the EU's coffers after they leave completely in return for absolutely nothing. That they would is the Remain equivalent of "Mexico will pay for that wall."

Has anyone even suggested this?

If the UK accepts freedom of movement or gets some kind of concession on this from the EU, they'll have to adopt all relevant EU legislation and pay into the EU budget.

If the UK doesn't accept freedom of movement and doesn't get any kind of concession on this from the EU, they won't have to adopt relevant EU legislation and won't have to pay into the EU budget.
 

Dougald

Member
I think many of us do accept the result of the vote, but it's fairly obvious the 'majority' is only apt for the overall aim of 'leave', not anything substantive, detailed or actually... real.

The last time I pointed out that there are many different ways for the UK to 'not be a member of the European Union' on GAF and suggested that the public should have a say in where we end up, I was called an idiot

The actual question on the ballot paper was so open to interpretation we'll end up with a compromise which satisfies nobody
 

jelly

Member
It makes no sense in the end. Hard Brexit is extreme and will be very bad. Soft Brexit is pointless, might as well stay in with our current perks. We just need to step back and not do it. Hell, maybe the EU does change for the better and that is enough of an excuse to stay.
 
The last time I pointed out that there are many different ways for the UK to 'not be a member of the European Union' on GAF and suggested that the public should have a say in where we end up, I was called an idiot

The actual question on the ballot paper was so open to interpretation we'll end up with a compromise which satisfies nobody

As has been brought up, while 'Brexit means Brexit' makes for a catchy slogan, its a total tautology and assumes that all are agreed on what 'Brexit' looks like. Its easy for men like Nigel Farage to spin it into saying that they've gotten a declaration by the majority to completely leave the EU behind, but all they got was an affirmation of the desire to 'leave', and not how.

Thinking about it, having it be an 'advisory' referendum while having the absolute minimum in terms of actual content to advise political policy is one of the most frustrating aspects about this whole thing.
 
Thinking about it, having it be an 'advisory' referendum while having the absolute minimum in terms of actual content to advise political policy is one of the most frustrating aspects about this whole thing.

I can't believe how the Referendum Act actually got through Parliament without any apparent scrutiny. I guess that was just a foretaste of how Brexit is going to be rolled out.
 
As for talk of Britain paying in to the EU: that was a cornerstone of Leave's campaign. WE PAY ALL THIS MONEY!! Paying in again won't be a victory for some.

Of course, nobody bothered to explain why we paid rather-less-than-the-advertised-sum, but heyho, it was a shitshow.
 

kmag

Member
As for talk of Britain paying in to the EU: that was a cornerstone of Leave's campaign. WE PAY ALL THIS MONEY!! Paying in again won't be a victory for some.

Of course, nobody bothered to explain why we paid rather-less-than-the-advertised-sum, but heyho, it was a shitshow.

Or that we pay 0.5 of GDP in return for economic access worth about 9% of GDP
 
It might be to some extent if the UK continues to pay into EU coffers. Without a preferential market deal of some sort for the UK, the EU isn't getting that as the UK economy would be crippled and there'd be no incentive for the UK to pay. The EU will have to compromise, or the UK will simply take its crippled economy and not pay. Norway and Switzerland are not real solutions as they're in the Schengen Area, and in a bizarre way, more within the EU than the UK is.

May isn't going to accept no immigration control and paying for the EU in exchange for nominally leaving. This is going to get messy, but nobody is going to win. The EU will play hardball to discourage anyone else (Hungary) from leaving, and the UK is not going to back down on the main reason it voted out.

As much as Leave voters were unrealistic, the EU obviously wants their cake and to eat it too as well, but if they're too harsh the UK has no incentive whatsoever to pay.

The UK is not paying for having none of its demands met, and a crippled economy as a result. That is obvious. The economy is already going to get bad enough...



I care. Most UK voters and much of the ruling party want out of the EU, too bad if that fact upsets you.

Fantasist bullshit.
 

Dougald

Member
As has been brought up, while 'Brexit means Brexit' makes for a catchy slogan, its a total tautology and assumes that all are agreed on what 'Brexit' looks like. Its easy for men like Nigel Farage to spin it into saying that they've gotten a declaration by the majority to completely leave the EU behind, but all they got was an affirmation of the desire to 'leave', and not how.

The leave campaign didn't even have a coherent vision on what Brexit would look like, with both EEC membership and completely leaving being trotted out, so we can't even use that as an excuse that people have already voted for a specific outcome.

If you're going to give the public a direct say in leaving, then we probably ought to give them a say on how
 

Kyougar

Member
Again, the UK won't continue to pay into the EU budget without preferential market access of some kind. It just won't happen, there's no incentive to. Politics is all about finding compromises. If the EU won't then the UK economy will suffer even more, but the UK will not pay into the EU's coffers after they leave completely in return for absolutely nothing. That they would is the Remain equivalent of "Mexico will pay for that wall."

Also, the UK is not in EFTA anymore, and that block is not priority.

the UK all had that, they were getting preferential treatment int the EU left and right.
 
Again, the UK won't continue to pay into the EU budget without preferential market access of some kind. It just won't happen, there's no incentive to. Politics is all about finding compromises. If the EU won't then the UK economy will suffer even more, but the UK will not pay into the EU's coffers after they leave completely in return for absolutely nothing. That they would is the Remain equivalent of "Mexico will pay for that wall."

Also, the UK is not in EFTA anymore, and that block is not priority.


Who has suggested that it would? Right now it's all about crazy ideas from several UK politicians - suggesting that the UK is so essential to the EU that they will keep access to the Single Market while having control over immigration from the EU etc.
No EU politician - as far as I am aware - has suggested that the UK would need to pay anything if they wouldn't get Single Market access.
 
Again, the UK won't continue to pay into the EU budget without preferential market access of some kind. It just won't happen, there's no incentive to. Politics is all about finding compromises. If the EU won't then the UK economy will suffer even more, but the UK will not pay into the EU's coffers after they leave completely in return for absolutely nothing. That they would is the Remain equivalent of "Mexico will pay for that wall."

Also, the UK is not in EFTA anymore, and that block is not priority.

Like, what do you honestly expect this tremendous deal, so amazing that your head will spin, believe me, deal to be ?

Norway has made it clear that it would veto the UK getting a norway deal.
The visegrad group made it clear that they won't allow the UK to get access to the free market without free movement of people.

The EU has shown their hands and many countries, everyone holding a veto, have drawn their lines in the sand.

Just waffling some nonsense about "guess thats no great british pounds for you then" doesn't change the fact that the UK has to choose between soft-brexit (like Norway, adhering to the grand majority of EU-laws, allowing freedom of movement) and the equivalent of dropping a dirty bomb on their economy.
 
Switzerland gives hope for a compromise where free movement into the UK gets 'limited' by giving preference to local people for jobs whilst keeping our rights to go live and work in the rest of Europe.
 

kmag

Member
The only things I could see the UK paying for if it was outside is negotiated access to Horizon (that might be in everyones interest) and some of the shared security services.
 

excowboy

Member
Sorry for the drive by post - have been lurking all along. Thought it'd be fun to share that my 3 1/2 year old daughter has so far been inquisitive enough that we've taught her a basic understanding of how blood cells carry oxygen around the body, how weather systems cause rain, and, last night, the basics of the fire triangle. However, she left me completely stumped this morning after over hearing some conversation... 'Daddy, what does Brexit mean?'. As with most of the last three months, I didn't know whether to laugh or cry...
 

mr-paul

Member
Sorry for the drive by post - have been lurking all along. Thought it'd be fun to share that my 3 1/2 year old daughter has so far been inquisitive enough that we've taught her a basic understanding of how blood cells carry oxygen around the body, how weather systems cause rain, and, last night, the basics of the fire triangle. However, she left me completely stumped this morning after over hearing some conversation... 'Daddy, what does Brexit mean?'. As with most of the last three months, I didn't know whether to laugh or cry...

Did you answer "Brexit means Brexit'?
 
Sorry for the drive by post - have been lurking all along. Thought it'd be fun to share that my 3 1/2 year old daughter has so far been inquisitive enough that we've taught her a basic understanding of how blood cells carry oxygen around the body, how weather systems cause rain, and, last night, the basics of the fire triangle. However, she left me completely stumped this morning after over hearing some conversation... 'Daddy, what does Brexit mean?'. As with most of the last three months, I didn't know whether to laugh or cry...

It means people are ignorant assholes who believe in fairytale bullshit and think their shit doesn't stink because of some ass-ended belief that we're still a relevant world power when we're simply the cunt who lived too long and others are too polite to say anything about us shitting all over the place.
 
France and Germany brush off Johnson's EU 'baloney' jibe

Germany and France brushed aside suggestions by the UK foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, that there was no link between the EU’s principle of free movement and access to its single market, saying they could send Johnson a copy of the Lisbon treaty and even travel to London to explain it to him in English.

Johnson, a leading Brexit advocate, told Sky News on Thursday that the EU’s position that there was an automatic trade-off between access to the single market and free movement was “complete baloney”.

...
“We just looked at each other because we’re used to respecting foreign ministers a lot,” Schäuble said.

“If we need to do more, we will gladly send her majesty’s foreign minister a copy of the Lisbon treaty. Then he can read that there is a certain link between the single market and the four core principles in Europe,” he said.

“I can also say it in English. So if clarification is necessary we can pay a visit and explain this to him in good English,” Schäuble said.

Sapin, in a French twist on Johnson’s “baloney” jibe, said: “There are four freedoms and they cannot be separated. So if we want to make good European paté then there are four freedoms that together make up the paté in question.”
Wow.

Related article: UK aims to trigger Brexit process in early 2017, says Boris Johnson
 

“We just looked at each other because we’re used to respecting foreign ministers a lot,” Schäuble said.

“If we need to do more, we will gladly send her majesty’s foreign minister a copy of the Lisbon treaty. Then he can read that there is a certain link between the single market and the four core principles in Europe,”

Damn. I really didn't like Shäuble during the Grexit talks last year, but that's an amazing put-down
 

Koren

Member
It makes no sense in the end. Hard Brexit is extreme and will be very bad. Soft Brexit is pointless, might as well stay in with our current perks.
Soft Brexit is what? Basically the same as it was before, but with UK lacking the voice to decide on the future of EU rules? I'd say it's worse than just pointless...
 

excowboy

Member
It means people are ignorant assholes who believe in fairytale bullshit and think their shit doesn't stink because of some ass-ended belief that we're still a relevant world power when we're simply the cunt who lived too long and others are too polite to say anything about us shitting all over the place.

I might try this explanation - she has recently potty trained so will enjoy all the poopoo references. Wish I had more to contribute here, just gonna resume reading and being horrified...
 

Burai

shitonmychest57
Yup. How this was never explained just blows my mind.

It was. Problem was the other side of the debate was promising that we'd get the 9% for free because cars, cakes and cheese and that even if we didn't get the 9% we'd more than make up for it with better trade deals with the rest of the world.
 
It was. Problem was the other side of the debate was promising that we'd get the 9% for free because cars, cakes and cheese and that even if we didn't get the 9% we'd more than make up for it with better trade deals with the rest of the world.

The future of the UK will be decided by the three Cs Cars, cakes and cheese.

When was the moment when the entire UK decided to become an joke country?
 

Pancake Mix

Copied someone else's pancake recipe
Has anyone even suggested this?

If the UK accepts freedom of movement or gets some kind of concession on this from the EU, they'll have to adopt all relevant EU legislation and pay into the EU budget.

If the UK doesn't accept freedom of movement and doesn't get any kind of concession on this from the EU, they won't have to adopt relevant EU legislation and won't have to pay into the EU budget.

Some people are definitely saying that the EU will not have to compromise whatsoever, i.e. a completely soft or nominal "Brexit", which would result in an open border and essentially leaving the EU in name only.

In actuality, the EU will probably negotiate hard but allow the UK to have immigration control and some preferential market access in exchange for those continued budgetary contributions.


Freedom of movement is not a human right, and a small wall near the port will do no harm. It's on French land, the French are fine with it, and obviously, they're not paying for it. That's not comparable to saying Mexico will pay for a $10 billion US dollar (minimum) series of fortifications. It's really, really not.

Fantasist bullshit.

You're living in a fantasy world if you think the UK is not going to get that, yet still pay into the EU budget. A completely nominal "Brexit" is not happening. It's some people's wet dream, but it's not going to happen, nor does Brussells care that it's a few people's wet dream. All they want to do is discourage other countries from going down this ill-advised path. They're not going to destabilise Western Europe and maim the EU budget over a (soon to be) non-member's immigration standards after their exit...
 

chadskin

Member
Some people are definitely saying that the EU will not have to compromise whatsoever, i.e. a completely soft or nominal "Brexit", which would result in an open border and essentially leaving the EU in name only.

In actuality, the EU will probably negotiate hard but allow the UK to have immigration control and some preferential market access in exchange for those continued budgetary contributions.

You said the "UK will not pay into the EU's coffers after they leave completely in return for absolutely nothing" and I've seen no one ever claim this. Neither here nor elsewhere.

Again, the UK can pursue a 'soft Brexit' in which they either fully accept freedom of movement or hope for some kind of concession on this by the EU, adopt all relevant EU legislation and contribute to the EU budget. If they (have to) pursue a 'hard Brexit', they exit the EU single market and will no longer be subject to freedom of movement, won't have to adopt EU legislation and won't have to contribute to the EU budget.

There is no scenario where the UK leaves completely, i.e. 'hard Brexit', still contributes to the EU budget but gets nothing in return.

Additionally, whether the EU will compromise remains to be seen -- at the very least, definitely not to the extent the hardcore Brexiteers would be happy with -- but the EU can absolutely decide not to give the UK any concessions on this if they value the four freedoms higher politically than the UK's contribution to the EU budget financially. Boiled down, it's £9bn a year - certainly not a trivial sum but potentially not large enough to blow up the foundation of the EU single market.

ukseumembership-graph.png

Worth remembering Cameron got an emergency brake on immigration from the EU earlier this year which the British voters rejected in the referendum. How much more leeway there is is anyone's guess. My guess? None.
 

norinrad

Member
Who has suggested that it would? Right now it's all about crazy ideas from several UK politicians - suggesting that the UK is so essential to the EU that they will keep access to the Single Market while having control over immigration from the EU etc.
No EU politician - as far as I am aware - has suggested that the UK would need to pay anything if they wouldn't get Single Market access.

The UK is essential to a successful EU. Just sit back and watch how things unfold in the coming years. Right now it's all just noise from all sides.
 
Betrayalton by the German car makers and Italian vineyards: European firms offer Britain scant support in divorce talks | Reuters

More than 20 European business associations and companies interviewed by Reuters say they back their governments' position that Britain's banking sector can only enjoy EU market access post-Brexit if the country still follows the bloc's rules.

...

Senior lawmakers in the British government have said they expect European business groups to support their position because they need access to the financial services the City provides.

But interviews with companies and trade bodies across Europe suggest the most important thing for business leaders is maintaining a single market with a single set of rules that includes the four freedoms: free movement of workers, capital, goods and services.

They are less concerned about losing access to the City of London.

Companies including Deutsche Post, Daimler and Fiat Chrysler said they did not see significant disruption if the City loses free access to the EU market.

"We have taken a very clear line that the integrity of the four freedoms must be observed and that there is no cherry picking," said Markus Beyrer, Director General of BusinessEurope, the umbrella body for the biggest EU business federations.

"This is a very clear message we get from our constituency."

...

In the days after Britain voted to leave the EU in June, the largest French and German business associations - MEDEF, BDI and BDA - said their governments should be clear with Britain that the decision meant the City would lose access to the EU market.

Business associations in Italy, Sweden, Denmark, Lithuania and fourteen other countries told Reuters they also did not support Britain retaining market access if it restricts the free movement of EU workers.

Reuters contacted over 100 of the biggest continental companies to ask whether they were prepared to lobby for a special deal for Britain.

Most of those who responded said they would not get involved in the debate, at least until after a deal was agreed, but that they were not worried that a deal which cut off City banks would significantly impact their businesses.

However, companies do fear that if Britain was allowed to secure access to the EU market, without following all the four freedoms, it would set a dangerous precedent.


...
 
The UK is essential to a successful EU. Just sit back and watch how things unfold in the coming years. Right now it's all just noise from all sides.


Um, the UK just decided to leave the EU, so how could it possibly be essential to a successsful EU?
I anything, it's essential to a successful EU that the UK doesn't get a good deal, because that would set a precedent that others could use and leave, too.
 

Linkified

Member
I've been reading this thread for some time and been reluctant to post.

It could be that when negotiations are finished no deal is reached the WTO deal just becomes active and that is that. Tarrifs on importing EU goods kick in and vice versa. Done and done and move on.
 

Zaph

Member
[BBC] David Cameron 'let down' by Theresa May, says former PM aide

Former PM David Cameron felt "badly let down" by Theresa May during the EU referendum campaign, his former director of communications has said.

Sir Craig Oliver, a former key aide to Mr Cameron, said the then home secretary failed to back the Remain campaign 13 times and was regarded by some as "an enemy agent".

He also said Boris Johnson believed the Leave campaign would be "crushed".

Neither Downing Street nor the foreign secretary has responded to the claims.

The claims are made in a book - Unleashing Demons: The Inside Story Of Brexit - serialised in the Mail on Sunday.

In it, Sir Craig says Mr Cameron briefly considered staying on as prime minister, despite losing the referendum.

However, he says he decided against it, saying he feared remaining in Downing Street would have left him "being prepared for the slaughterhouse".

Sir Craig says Mrs May only came "off the fence" in favour of Remain after Mr Cameron became "visibly wound up" and gave her a dressing down over the telephone.

"Amid the murder and betrayal of the campaign, one figure stayed very still at the centre of it all - Theresa May. Now she is the last one standing," wrote Sir Craig, who was Mr Cameron's director of communications for five years.
Image caption Sir Craig (left) was Downing Street director of communications for five years

Sir Craig's book suggests Mr Cameron was left uncertain over whether Mrs May favoured staying in the European Union.

He said Mrs May was referred to dismissively by aides as "submarine May" during the campaign.

The then home secretary's "sphinx-like approach" became difficult, he added in the book, as the press were questioning which way she would jump.

Sir Craig said matters finally came to a head after a newspaper warned Mr Cameron faced "last-minute opposition" from Mrs May to his deal for EU reform.
Train phone call

"Later, on a train to Chippenham for a speech, DC [David Cameron] is visibly wound up by the report.

"Suddenly he picks up his mobile and calls May, asking her to make clear we have been victorious in our plan to crack down on 'swindlers and fiddlers' attempting to come into the UK," he wrote.

"When he hangs up he seems to think he's made an impact. Later the home secretary issues a statement saying she believes there's 'the basis for a deal here'."


Norman Smith, BBC assistant political editor, says the book gives "a sense of the deep anger and frustration within Mr Cameron's top team at Mrs May's lukewarm support during the referendum campaign".

Sir Craig also claims Mr Johnson, now foreign secretary, was "genuinely in turmoil" about supporting the Leave campaign and had been "flip-flopping within a matter of hours" of declaring his intention.

The former Mayor of London became a prominent leader of the pro-Brexit campaign.

Sir Craig writes that, the day before throwing his weight behind the Leave campaign, Mr Johnson sent a text to Mr Cameron warning him that he would be campaigning for Brexit.

However, he says Mr Johnson later sent a second message suggesting he could back Remain.


"I ask DC what makes him so sure Boris is wobbling. He reads out some parts of the text including the phrase 'depression is setting in', followed by a clear sense that he's reconsidering.

"Neither of us is left in any doubt," he added.

"I am struck by two things: Boris is genuinely in turmoil, flip-flopping within a matter of hours; and his cavalier approach."

Sir Craig says Mr Cameron received a final text message from Mr Johnson saying he would be backing Leave just nine minutes before he publicly announced his intentions.

He writes that he believes Mr Johnson was really a "confused inner", saying his previous conversations with him confirmed that view.

Meanwhile, Mr Johnson has told BBC One's Andrew Marr show that the process of beginning Brexit and triggering should not be allowed to "drag on".

Implying that the government might have to trigger Article 50 before the European Parliament elections in May, he said it would make no sense to allow more UK MEPs to be elected given that UK was set to quit the EU.

He said: "We've got to do a lot of work to get our - you know, get our ducks in order and that is - that is going on."

He added: "The opportunity is to do a deal that I think would be very much in the interests, not only of the - of the UK but also of our friends and partners in the EU.

"And what I'm finding so interesting, having spent a lot of time over the last week or so talking to other countries is they're starting to see the opportunities from Brexit."

Lots of things we already knew, but makes it even clearer what a pathetic, opportunistic, insecure cretin Boris is.
 
I've been reading this thread for some time and been reluctant to post.

It could be that when negotiations are finished no deal is reached the WTO deal just becomes active and that is that. Tarrifs on importing EU goods kick in and vice versa. Done and done and move on.

You must not have read well / thorough enough because there is no simple fall back to WTO rules. Google it.
 

jufonuk

not tag worthy
Not left yet, don't think we are going to while Germany and France are having elections, so we know who we are going to deal with.

instead of limiting free movement, why don't the UK just say you come over you have (x) amount of time to find work (enough to live on, no minimum amount needs to earnt) contribute to the UK and those in the EU from the UK have the same and contribute to host countries.

why can't we all just get along? .. Humans... people. c'mon it's 2016 let's be friends.
 
Not left yet, don't think we are going to while Germany and France are having elections, so we know who we are going to deal with.

instead of limiting free movement, why don't the UK just say you come over you have (x) amount of time to find work (enough to live on, no minimum amount needs to earnt) contribute to the UK and those in the EU from the UK have the same and contribute to host countries.

why can't we all just get along? .. Humans... people. c'mon it's 2016 let's be friends.
Because (thankfully) the UK doesn't get to unilaterally dictate EU migration policy.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom