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The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM

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Izuna

Banned
Depressing because LibDems are failing to be the face of Regrexit and Remain. Instead the public are just hoping that some Tory will convince May to stop pissing on the economy.
 

kmag

Member
Weird, he's been there forever. All his pals have retired. wonder if he failed to secure a sweet deal for his retirement and continues to work. Nigel Lawson has a huge ass house in France living it up.

He's stinking rich, he's been on the board of BAT for decades. He's still there because his wife died.
 

Maztorre

Member
The UK has a current account deficit taking up a nice chunk of GDP and the currency is correspondingly overvalued i.e. a trade balance problem. Why should the masses pay attention to meaningless information that wastes their time? I'm sure they have better things to do than assess success or failure erroneously based off the value of their country's currency.

This is among the dumbest handwaves I've read on this forum. Sure, why would "the masses" concern themselves with the value of their currency, it's not like it directly affects the cost of inputs into their businesses, the cost of imported consumer products, and the exchange rate of their currency when travelling. But then they're "the masses", so they can live in blissful ignorance, right?
 

Plum

Member
The UK has a current account deficit taking up a nice chunk of GDP and the currency is correspondingly overvalued i.e. a trade balance problem. Why should the masses pay attention to meaningless information that wastes their time? I'm sure they have better things to do than assess success or failure erroneously based off the value of their country's currency.

You really, really think that this significant fall in the pound is due to a "trade balance problem" and not Brexit? It's just a coincidence that this happened just after the government begun to say that they will take a hard-line stance on Brexit which will likely fuck up most, if not all, of the trade deals we might get?

And yes, they should assess success or failure because as an import-driven economy a fall in the pound is, as I said above, catastrophic. Tesco, Sainsburys, ASDA, etc won't go all nice and soak up the massive rise in supplier prices themselves so therefore the average person is going to be affected.
 

kitch9

Banned
It's fine everyone, the pound's been overvalued for 168 years! Isn't that right, Daily Mail?

It has been a tad, the last time we had exchange rates like this we got sustained growth for years.

Crashing out of the ERM ended up being a good thing despite endless reports of doom.

Ergo, don't panic.
 

kitch9

Banned
You really, really think that this significant fall in the pound is due to a "trade balance problem" and not Brexit? It's just a coincidence that this happened just after the government begun to say that they will take a hard-line stance on Brexit which will likely fuck up most, if not all, of the trade deals we might get?

And yes, they should assess success or failure because as an import-driven economy a fall in the pound is, as I said above, catastrophic. Tesco, Sainsburys, ASDA, etc won't go all nice and soak up the massive rise in supplier prices themselves so therefore the average person is going to be affected.

No its because the same bankers despised by this very forum are betting against the quid. We all know that they would never bet wrong. They are the bastion of fiscal responsibility after all.
 

Acorn

Member
He's stinking rich, he's been on the board of BAT for decades. He's still there because his wife died.
I suspect he'll move into the Lords in 2020.

Odd that he has been a minister for around a combined 15-20 years and not been knighted. Craig Oliver runs the no 10 press ops for 3 or 4 years and gets a knighthood.
 
No its because the same bankers despised by this very forum are betting against the quid. We all know that they would never bet wrong. They are the bastion of fiscal responsibility after all.

Well if they are wrong, you should obviously get into investing, buy GBP and show them all up! If they are undervaluing the pound now, when it soars up after our economy booms outside the EU for some yet to be explained reason, you'll make pots of cash.

(Saying 'oh it's evil moneymen doing this, they're obviously wrong' is a pretty hilarious misunderstanding of how fiscal markets work)
 

Shiggy

Member
Two major industry associations in Germany just reiterated that they want a tough stance by the EU on Brexit negotiations. While they could see short-term losses, they believe granting special rights to the British, such as access to the single market without freedom of movement, will result in other countries asking for the same. This would ultimately lead to the end of the single market and damage the German industry.

http://m.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/a-1116362.html

So much for "but the Germans need to sell their cars, they will surely support us".
 
German companies now pushing for hard negotiations with the UK.

It makes sense that German companies are rather protecting the large one single market than just the trade with the UK. Also the UK will eat what they get anyway.
 

kitch9

Banned
Well if they are wrong, you should obviously get into investing, buy GBP and show them all up! If they are undervaluing the pound now, when it soars up after our economy booms outside the EU for some yet to be explained reason, you'll make pots of cash.

(Saying 'oh it's evil moneymen doing this, they're obviously wrong' is a pretty hilarious misunderstanding of how fiscal markets work)

It usually works the opposite of what the doom sayers say in my experience of 40 years of life on this planet. I've seen double digit interest rates, double digit inflation and nearly doubled digit recession negative growth,we came through it all. This at the minute is, well, nothing.

I remember the government spending billions trying to prop up a free falling pound desperately trying to stay in the ERM, interest rates were high and the papers full of stories of doom.

Those billions got us nowhere, we crashed out and we waited for the financial apocalypse.

It never came, we instead saw many years of growth, the longest on record I believe. This growth was fueled by a low pound and increased competitiveness on the world stage.
 

Irminsul

Member
The presidents of two big German employers' associations said today [German source] that they approve of a tough approach in Brexit negotiations and declared the Four Freedoms as absolutely non-negotiable.

One of them said short-term losses due to a hard Brexit were preferrable to letting Britain choose which freedoms they want to follow, because that would have worse long-term implications.

EDIT: Beaten by Shiggy.
 

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
Two major industry associations in Germany just reiterated that they want a tough stance by the EU on Brexit negotiations. While they could see short-term losses, they believe granting special rights to the British, such as access to the single market without freedom of movement, will result in other countries asking for the same. This would ultimately lead to the end of the single market and damage the German industry.

http://m.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/a-1116362.html

So much for "but the Germans need to sell their cars, they will surely support us".

This was quite logical for a lot of people. Most rational people don't want to see the EU crumble because they understand that the economic consequences of that could be quite catastrophic.
 

Dr.Acula

Banned
The head government lawyer, Jeremy Wright QC, who May has put on the case as lead barrister is only a QC because he was made Attorney General, rather than due to talent.

He's actually an incredibly average lawyer whose experience is mostly in the Birmingham criminal circuit.

He's up against the best constitutional barristers in the country, possibly even the world.



Read this article:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/29/in-its-battle-for-brexit-the-government-is-bringing-a-knife-to-t/

If I didn't know better the government seems like they're trying to actively lose this case.

This article is full of backhanded savagery.

"Jeremy Wright is a very worthy barrister. He may not be a fellow of All Souls or even of Hertford College, Oxford, but he is at least a graduate of Exeter University."

What an upper-class slam.

"Indeed, if he were in fact to “lead” the Government's legal team (in the sense, as it is invariably understood in legal circles, to mean appearing as the leading Queen's Counsel in a case) it might even lay him open to the charge that he is in breach of rule C21.8 of the Barristers' Code of Conduct which provides that a barrister should not act in a case when he is:

"“... not competent to handle the particular matter or otherwise [does] not have enough experience to handle the matter;”"

Ether.
 

kmag

Member
It usually works the opposite of what the doom sayers say in my experience of 40 years of life on this planet. I've seen double digit interest rates, double digit inflation and nearly doubled digit recession negative growth,we came through it all. This at the minute is, well, nothing.

I remember the government spending billions trying to prop up a free falling pound desperately trying to stay in the ERM, interest rates were high and the papers full of stories of doom.

Those billions got us nowhere, we crashed out and we waited for the financial apocalypse.

It never came, we instead saw many years of growth, the longest on record I believe. This growth was fueled by a low pound and increased competitiveness on the world stage.

Joining the single market in 93 was a major driver of growth. Then we had a housing bubble, the dot com bubble, another housing bubble etc
 

sammex

Member
CulyLBaWgAADuSW.jpg

"Britain could end up paying more than £350m a week to leave EU."
 
"Britain could end up paying more than £350m a week to leave EU."
I'm sure I heard that one a while back about pledges still applying so still having to be paid and all Brexiteers would say is "dont' believe everything you read". Now that there has been an FT study saying the same thing I wonder if they'll still sing the same tune.
 

Acorn

Member
I'm sure I heard that one a while back about pledges still applying so still having to be paid and all Brexiteers would say is "dont' believe everything you read". Now that there has been an FT study saying the same thing I wonder if they'll still sing the same tune.
Spoiler Yes, yes they will.

Even if everything remain said came to pass they still would.
 

D4Danger

Unconfirmed Member
you know it's going well when a fucking Corbyn led Labour can rattle some cages.

jesus this "brexit means brexit" and hard/soft brexit shit is embarrassing. Nobody has a clue.

edit: those questions seem reasonable. I'm actually impressed they managed to cobble so many words together without imploding. They almost look like an opposition.
 

Chmpocalypse

Blizzard
This is among the dumbest handwaves I've read on this forum. Sure, why would "the masses" concern themselves with the value of their currency, it's not like it directly affects the cost of inputs into their businesses, the cost of imported consumer products, and the exchange rate of their currency when travelling. But then they're "the masses", so they can live in blissful ignorance, right?

A rather fitting username, I think. : p
 

Acorn

Member
you know it's going well when a fucking Corbyn led Labour can rattle some cages.

jesus this "brexit means brexit" and hard/soft brexit shit is embarrassing. Nobody has a clue.
Well tbf the labour benches forgot they hated him for a record half an hour so that helps.
 
Anyone who quits a run the moment the pavement starts to steep upwards is a fool. We're going up a hill but we'll come down a mountain in the end.

I seriously doubt that brexit will bring about a new age of prosperity and happy people. At best I see it an entirely neutral thing in the long run (and therefore pointless, voted away EU citizenship for...what?). In all likelihood given the noise about companies moving jobs and staff abroad (people in this thread's employers have discussed relocating them) it will be somewhat negative. The UK will be poorer outside of the EU than in even though there is no zombie apocalypse happening outside and stuff is going on mostly normally.
 
I forgot guys, why are we doing this again?

Like, what is a single realistic benefit from all this?
Because the Tories (and UKIP) manipulated and encouraged fear and ignorance in order to win elections and now they've fucked us all over because of a culture they created.

Benefits:
Took back control?
EU Army?
Deglobalisation?
People might be forced to learn something about economics?
 

Pancake Mix

Copied someone else's pancake recipe
Being able to ignore countries that spend less than half of a percent of their GDP on their military talk about an EU army, that's a really beautiful thing.

No, it's a necessary handicap to stop leaving countries from holding the union to ransom.

And besides, nobody is going to strike a deal with us in the two years anyway. We don't know what our deal with the EU will be so any deal we sign in that time won't be worth the paper it's written on.

Give me a fucking break. Nobody's holding the union to ransom when they're out deal or no deal in 2 years (of non-voting) after triggering Article 50, and being beholden to all EU laws during that period and prior to triggering the article.

I was talking about countries like Canada or Australia. Both are going to need some kind of trade deal as any worked out with the EU will be irrelevant come 2019.
 

Shiggy

Member
Being able to ignore countries that spend less than half of a percent of their GDP on their military talk about an EU army, that's a really beautiful thing.

Then why are the British so angry about the military cooperation of some EU countries which will happen now?



Give me a fucking break. Nobody's holding the union to ransom when they're out deal or no deal in 2 years (of non-voting) after triggering Article 50, and being beholden to all EU laws during that period and prior to triggering the article.

I was talking about countries like Canada or Australia. Both are going to need some kind of trade deal as any worked out with the EU will be irrelevant come 2019.

Don't they want to negotiate trade deals with the EU first?
 

Kathian

Banned
No its because the same bankers despised by this very forum are betting against the quid. We all know that they would never bet wrong. They are the bastion of fiscal responsibility after all.

Nope. Prices work by demand. The pound was uncompetitive at higher prices because demand was falling.

That's really 'it'.
 

kitch9

Banned
Nope. Prices work by demand. The pound was uncompetitive at higher prices because demand was falling.

That's really 'it'.

The pound is where it should be in a normal world when you look at current interest and inflation rates. Some need to realise interest rates of 0.5-0.25 are not the norm and are not sustainable in the medium to long-term. It was artificially high because investors saw it as a safe haven as our government has its own money printers and the EU looked to be going down the pan.

The Brexit vote removed the safe haven status for investors and the pound is where it should be when you look at the other fiscal factors which drive it.
 

Number45

Member
Semi-related to this, but I'm looking for a newspaper to subscribe to (or just read, if subscription isn't necessary). I know the obvious ones to avoid - any suggestions for relatively unbiased political coverage? Is FT worth it considering the F part isn't of much value to me personally? The Guardian or Independent perhaps?
 
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