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The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM

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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
I think he's arguing that since the trade between the UK and Scotland are much more important then the trade between the EU and Scotland, if Scotland become independent their best economical move would be to seek a trade deal with the UK because that would be the option which cause the least amount of financial impact.

But since as an EU member you can't have an independent trade deal with a non EU member and the Hard Brexit stance will lead to the UK being outside the Free market, Scotland could not be in the EU and not significantly impact their trades relation with the UK for the worse.

Entirely correct.
 

Hazzuh

Member
Putting aside the arguments about Scottish independence for a moment I was was thinking about what would actually happen if a coalition of remainer Tories + the opposition bring down the government.. If you are in the middle of negotiations and the government collapses surely that would be an utter crisis? You are working on a time limit and it strikes me as impossible to change the terms of the negotiation mid way through.
 

Audioboxer

Member
I think he's arguing that since the trade between the UK and Scotland are much more important then the trade between the EU and Scotland, if Scotland become independent their best economical move would be to seek a trade deal with the UK because that would be the option which cause the least amount of financial impact.

But since as an EU member you can't have an independent trade deal with a non EU member and the Hard Brexit stance will lead to the UK being outside the Free market, Scotland could not be in the EU and not significantly impact their trades relation with the UK for the worse.

And I do get that, but for better or worse IF Scotland votes to go independent I am fully certain we'll apply for EU membership regardless of anything Crab is saying. Which is why I said it will be up for the elected Government to serve the people by working hard to create new trade partnerships or new investments to support the country.
 

excowboy

Member
Some in depth discussion here, so I don't want to interrupt but just had a thought on indyref2 - presumably Westminster will be fighting any legal basis for a 2nd indyref so imagine Scotland has a non-legally binding 'advisory' referendum (which presumably they could do whenever) and the result is to leave the union. Checkmate Brexit? Or just amazing mental gymnastics on how one referendum must be obeyed as the will of the people and one isn't worth the ballot papers it's printed on?
 

Audioboxer

Member
Some in depth discussion here, so I don't want to interrupt but just had a thought on indyref2 - presumably Westminster will be fighting any legal basis for a 2nd indyref so imagine Scotland has a non-legally binding 'advisory' referendum (which presumably they could do whenever) and the result is to leave the union. Checkmate Brexit? Or just amazing mental gymnastics on how one referendum must be obeyed as the will of the people and one isn't worth the ballot papers it's printed on?

You'd more likely see an actual invasion of England than see indyref2 going ahead without legal consent. As in neither will happen. I also think it's a bit of a unionist dream to believe Westminster would actually block indyref2. If they can't even bring themselves to blocking Brexit over a few % they aren't going to stop the Scots having a referendum if the people want it due to a 62% remain vote.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Putting aside the arguments about Scottish independence for a moment I was was thinking about what would actually happen if a coalition of remainer Tories + the opposition bring down the government.. If you are in the middle of negotiations and the government collapses surely that would be an utter crisis? You are working on a time limit and it strikes me as impossible to change the terms of the negotiation mid way through.

It would depend on what this coalition does in your scenario. If they brought down the government because they wanted for example the Norway model, my guess would be that they could get the QMV to delay negotiations because the EU would obviously rather have the UK in the EEA than outside altogether if possible. If they brought down the government in a fit of hysteria a la the Labour Party leadership, then yeah, I'd call that crisis time.
 

Wereroku

Member
And I do get that, but for better or worse IF Scotland votes to go independent I am fully certain we'll apply for EU membership regardless of anything Crab is saying. Which is why I said it will be up for the elected Government to serve the people by working hard to create new trade partnerships or new investments to support the country.

If that happens after a hard brexit trade between UK and Scotland will be severely damaged. Not too mention you will have to change currency into the Euro since you will no longer have the exemptions that the UK had as a member.

It would depend on what this coalition does in your scenario. If they brought down the government because they wanted for example the Norway model, my guess would be that they could get the QMV to delay negotiations because the EU would obviously rather have the UK in the EEA than outside altogether if possible. If they brought down the government in a fit of hysteria a la the Labour Party leadership, then yeah, I'd call that crisis time.

I thought Norway didn't want the UK to have the same deal as them and stated they would block anything leading to that. They want to remain the leading party in their group.

The argument for many is the country (UK) is getting severely damaged anyway, and what is it best to consider now, trying to go it alone with full control, or remaining tied to a sinking ship that is going to tell us what we've to do?

Also have you seen the pound? I do not think the currency is going to be at the forefront of the debate like it was in 2014.

The problem is Scotland doesn't have a central banking authority and will have to create a whole new system while changing their currency at the same time. It would be crippling economically.

Also have you seen the pound recently? I do not think the currency is going to be at the forefront of the debate like it was in 2014.

It's almost as if people don't think Brexit already is crippling economically. For inspiration we look to other EU countries, such as the Scandinavian ones. It might take hard work and a bit of time to get there, but why can we not?

Where do you expect Scotland to get the money to do all the work that needs to be done to be independent?
 

Audioboxer

Member
If that happens after a hard brexit trade between UK and Scotland will be severely damaged. Not too mention you will have to change currency into the Euro since you will no longer have the exemptions that the UK had as a member.

The argument for many is the country (UK) is getting severely damaged anyway, and what is it best to consider now, trying to go it alone with full control, or remaining tied to a sinking ship that is going to tell us what we've to do?

Also have you seen the pound recently? I do not think the currency is going to be at the forefront of the debate like it was in 2014.

It's almost as if people don't think Brexit already is crippling economically. For inspiration we look to other EU countries, such as the Scandinavian ones. It might take hard work and a bit of time to get there, but why can we not? If there is ever a time to take that gamble for the future of Scotland it is now. The playing it safe card in 2014 kept us with the status quo, the "playing it safe" card now leaves us with Brexit.
 
And I do get that, but for better or worse IF Scotland votes to go independent I am fully certain we'll apply for EU membership regardless of anything Crab is saying. Which is why I said it will be up for the elected Government to serve the people by working hard to create new trade partnerships or new investments to support the country.

Yeah I understand that, but from what I've understood of your conversation he was more talking from a voters perspective.

That voting to be independent to enter the EU might not be the best reasoning because of the aforementioned reasons.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
I thought Norway didn't want the UK to have the same deal as them and stated they would block anything leading to that. They want to remain the leading party in their group.

Extending negotiations is QMV, agreeing the conclusion is unanimous. So you wouldn't need Norway for a deadline extension, even if you would need them for the final deal.
 

Audioboxer

Member
Yeah I understand that, but from what I've understood of your conversation he was more talking from a voters perspective.

That voting to be independent to enter the EU might not be the best reasoning because of the aforementioned reasons.

Maybe not, but is the alternative voting to remain in the UK through a hard Brexit such a "better" reasoning? I guess that's for the Scottish people to decide if a hard Brexit becomes a reality, and that is where my flippant remarks about us being more insular this time come from. 100x more than 2014 this vote really is potentially about shaping our children's future, and I will be disappointed in my own people if we don't fight it out together but spend more time ironically doing what I'm doing and arguing with those not from Scotland.

I can't really help that on GAF though, it just so happens most of Scottish GAF is pro-independence.
 

jelly

Member
It would be funny if the argument for no referendum from Westminster was, you think it's bad now with Brexit and A50 triggered, imagine what independent Scotland would be like, even worse.
 

Audioboxer

Member
It would be funny if the argument for no referendum from Westminster was, you think it's bad now with Brexit and A50 triggered, imagine what independent Scotland would be like.

It largely WILL be that. Even if there is truths in economic uncertainty, having the Daily Mail produce headlines that make it sound like Scotland will be a 3rd world country will most certainly be a tactic employed.

Unlike England getting its first real taste of nonsense with the NHS 350m Brexit promises, the Scottish people had to navigate through tons of bullshit back in 2014 so I'm unsure of how successful such a spray and pray campaign would be this time around.
 

Wereroku

Member
Maybe not, but is the alternative voting to remain in the UK through a hard Brexit such a "better" reasoning? I guess that's for the Scottish people to decide if a hard Brexit becomes a reality, and that is where my flippant remarks about us being more insular this time come from. 100x more than 2014 this vote really is potentially about shaping our children's future, and I will be disappointed in my own people if we don't fight it out together but spend more time ironically doing what I'm doing and arguing with those not from Scotland.

I can't really help that on GAF though, it just so happens most of Scottish GAF is pro-independence.

But economists have said that going independent after a hard brexit would be worse for the country then staying under the UK. I understand patriotism but any campaign to become independent would have to content with the fact that Scotland would be worse off for a long time.
 

Audioboxer

Member
But economists have said that going independent after a hard brexit would be worse for the country then staying under the UK. I understand patriotism but any campaign to become independent would have to content with the fact that Scotland would be worse off for a long time.

I guess that is down to how long, and what future we can eventually reach for our children. Versus how long will the Brexit slump last and what are the best potential outcomes for the UK in the future?

And disclaimer, this isn't dismissing economists, but all sources have to be scrutinised. Economists of choice for the Brexit Campaign also said "x" positive things about the UK leaving the EU. There's always positives and negatives, it's about weighing everything up and looking at your future prospects as well. There is also economists that don't get it right. Speculation is speculation at times.

You've got to remember even in the face of economists it matters how the Government spends its money and does its business. Having trust in the Tory party plays a part in how optimistic one can be about the future of the UK regardless of Brexit. Personally the country could be sitting on trillions of gold bars and the Tories would probably still snipe the disabled and poor.
 
As a displaced Scot who is broadly pro independence, and would certainly vote SNP in an election if I could, the economics are giving me pause (not that I get a vote), they do seem to have got a lot more pessimistic since the last ref.
 

jelly

Member
It largely WILL be that. Even if there is truths in economic uncertainty, having the Daily Mail produce headlines that make it sound like Scotland will be a 3rd world country will most certainly be a tactic employed.

Unlike England getting its first real taste of nonsense with the NHS 350m Brexit promises, the Scottish people had to navigate through tons of bullshit back in 2014 so I'm unsure of how successful such a spray and pray campaign would be this time around.

I think the young vote will come back strong which may help offset the media if it takes hold again.

Little story. When I was on the train the other day, a mother with her kids from school were chatting amongst themselves next to me and they were asking each other were they were born and it was funny to hear them all say Europe then they starting naming random places around the world for a laugh and at the end the toddler stringing along asked the mum if he was from Europe, yeah you're from Europe. Geography and Europe going strong with the young ones.
 

Audioboxer

Member
I think the young vote will come back strong which may help offset the media if it takes hold again.

Little story. When I was on the train the other day, a mother with her kids from school were chatting amongst themselves next to me and they were asking each other were they were born and it was funny to hear them all say Europe then they starting naming random places around the world for a laugh and at the end the toddler stringing along asked the mum if he was from Europe, yeah you're from Europe. Geography and Europe going strong with the young ones.

The young vote is actually still quite debated up here. The good thing though is young people tend to want to engage in debate, whereas often the old are so set in their ways that is when "racism/bigotry" can come out to do/say anything to state they are voting a certain way, don't even bother trying to engage with them.

In other words yes, there ARE die hard Conservative, Queen and country Scottish voters. I have a few in the family. One or two of them are of the kind that would call the SNP the Scottish Nazi Party and proclaim Sturgeon is trying to disrupt their patriotic UK flag and she is a vile human being. Unsurprisingly given what I know from FB posts from some family members most of those fitting into these camps also voted FOR Brexit. It's quite enjoyable reminding them that if anything has the chance to breakup the Union it was indeed actually voting for Brexit.... Either way luckily in my extended family only a few are like this. There will be Scottish conservative voters that just believe in the Tory ways and aren't so far to the right they act like loonies.

Oh one of them is also in the Masonics. Another stupid mans based "club". Although I guess IMO, but I'm not religious at all so it's no surprise I don't think much of Freemasonry.
 

Pie and Beans

Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
Part of me wishes this country was still run by despotic kings and queens because at least they'd have the stones to not Brexit and tell 51% (which is probably 41% now) of the country to go fuck themselves.

It is utter madness we're still pursuing this absolute cutting off nose plan. There is no rationale behind it other than "People that we're lied to and don't even understand basic trade agreements thought this would be a lark and we don't want to lose their vital support".

Cunts cunts cunts cunts cunts.
 

Ushojax

Should probably not trust the 7-11 security cameras quite so much

giphy.gif
 
This is coming from a guy whose own country wouldn't even vote for him if he was on a ballot in a village of 2 people.

Politicians really should be banned from using Twitter.

Erm, you don't become president of your (democratic) country for seven years without winning any elections...
 

EmiPrime

Member

EU council president: it's hard Brexit or no Brexit at all

The UK faces the stark choice of either a hard Brexit or no Brexit, the president of the European council has said – the first time he has taken such a clear line on the likely outcome of the UK’s exit talks.

Just hours after the foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, had told a committee of MPs he was confident Britain could strike a better trade deal with the EU after Brexit, Donald Tusk used a speech in Brussels to scotch the idea that Britain can “have its cake and eat it”.

Speaking to an audience of policymakers in Brussels on Thursday, Tusk – who chairs EU leaders’ summits – said it was useless to speculate about a soft Brexit, in which the UK remained a member of the single market. “The only real alternative to a hard Brexit is no Brexit, even if today hardly anyone believes in such a possibility.”

...

Tusk stressed that EU leaders would conduct the negotiations in good faith, but said the UK could not get a better deal than if it remained in the EU. May has repeatedly insisted she will not give a “running commentary” on the progress of the talks with Britain’s EU partners, but Tusk’s speech underlined the fact that other participants are unlikely to hold back.

The prime minister has rejected the terms hard and soft Brexit as a false choice, promoted by those who have not accepted the result of the referendum, but her statement in her conference speech that she would insist on immigration controls and reject the oversight of the European court of justice was widely interpreted as a signal that she expects Britain to leave the single market.

Tusk said the leave campaign and its “Take back control” slogan showed the UK wanted to be free of EU law while rejecting free movement of people and contributions to the EU budget.

“This approach has definitive consequences, both for the position of the UK government and for the whole process of negotiations,” he said. “Regardless of magic spells, this means a de facto will to radically loosen relations with the EU – something that goes by the name of hard Brexit.”
 
Of course it has, their attempt at profiteering turned to apologising when they weren't making any profit at all.


I'm sure Unilever weren't apologising. I'm sure Unilever and Tesco have come to an agreement on how much more the products will cost for the consumer in the future as the pound drops even further.
 

Tak3n

Banned
I think May has positioned herself quite cleverly, and can use parliament to go..."sorry I tried" to leave voters

If the supreme court rules that parliament has to trigger article 50, it wont happen....can never see parliament voting to do article 50...what that does for democracy I have no idea, on this forum it would be seen as the right thing, outside of Neo-Gaf you can expect all sorts of shit kicking off..

If parliament gets a final vote on the deal May brings back, and if it is outside of the single market, I can also not seeing it get through, this would be hugely damaging as it would effectively cause a perpetual cycle of uncertainty....

Both of these things are outside of the PM's hands...can she trust the whips to get all her MP's onside? I am not so sure....if I was her I would call an election, I think she is going to need a bigger majority down the road
 

Dougald

Member
If the supreme court rules that parliament has to trigger article 50, it wont happen....can never see parliament voting to do article 50...what that does for democracy I have no idea, on this forum it would be seen as the right thing, outside of Neo-Gaf you can expect all sorts of shit kicking off..


Plenty of people would be plenty annoyed. But then they could vote in MPs who would trigger A50, which is the point of representative democracy. The next election would certainly be.. interesting

Of course those MPs are likely to come at the expense of conservative MPs, I doubt May would be happy about that.
 

Cerium

Member
I think May has positioned herself quite cleverly, and can use parliament to go..."sorry I tried" to leave voters

If the supreme court rules that parliament has to trigger article 50, it wont happen....can never see parliament voting to do article 50...what that does for democracy I have no idea, on this forum it would be seen as the right thing, outside of Neo-Gaf you can expect all sorts of shit kicking off..

Speaking as an outsider, I do believe that elections should have consequences. Direct democracy is stupid but the sample principle applies. America paid dearly for electing Bush, but as a consequence we then got Obama. Nations and peoples learn from their mistakes. Parliament ducking Brexit would protect the voters from their own foolishness but deprive them of a valuable lesson.

Let people feel, in their daily lives, what populism and xenophobia have brought them.
 

KonradLaw

Member
This is coming from a guy whose own country wouldn't even vote for him if he was on a ballot in a village of 2 people.

.

Lol ..what a load of complete and utter crap..the recent polls show he would be able to directly challenge current president during next election with decent chances of winning. And tha'ts not even a year after last elections, when current party is still riding hign on their success and enjoying the last moments of honeymoon period.
By the time next election cycle comes if Tusk runs he will completely buldozer Duda in presidential elections. And that would just a starting position. The debate spanking Tusk would provide would make Hilary's first debate with Trump seen like a gentle dance.
The longer the current party will rule the more fondly peoeple will remember Tusk's 7 years as prime minister.
 

sammex

Member
What was known as the “Autumn Dip” is officially no more: For the first time in six years, September has seen an increase in autumn petrol prices in the UK.

The price of fuel is set to increase by 5p in the next two weeks. This rise is a surprise, as PetrolPrices.com statistics show that since 2010, the ushering in of fall meant a fall in fuel prices.

Fuel prices in Great Britain are going up for several reasons. The mini-crash of the already weakened pound is a major one, with the rise in cost of crude oil also significantly affecting autumn petrol prices.
Autumn Petrol Prices Go UP for the First Time in Six Years
 

oti

Banned
I think May has positioned herself quite cleverly, and can use parliament to go..."sorry I tried" to leave voters

I find it admirable that you still believe this is all part of May's amazing plan to contain the dangers of leaving and the Leavers themselves but I just can't. Appointing crazy people like Johnson wasn't some kind of amazing n-dimensional chess move in order to make Brexit as soft as possible, it's anything but. To me it seems pretty obvious that May is using the current uncertainty to push through the agenda she's been following for years and now the moment has come to do all those things she always wanted to do. Because Brexit, because taking back control, because people are too busy trying to come to terms with what is happening to them in order to really look at what is happening in Westminster. Not like there's a strong opposition to do anything against it really.

I wish I could share your faith in the current government or in May in particular but I can't.
 

Joni

Member
May wants power. Brexit gives her this at the moment. She will switch if she thinks she can get more power opposing it.
 

Mr. Sam

Member
The country will be in shambles before people accept Theresa May isn't a Machiavellian mastermind and her disastrous plan isn't actually a brilliant plan intended to draw attention to how disastrous her plan is. She's not Littlefinger, she's a Tory.

I'm sure Unilever weren't apologising. I'm sure Unilever and Tesco have come to an agreement on how much more the products will cost for the consumer in the future as the pound drops even further.

This is overwhelmingly likely. The two probably just compromised on a rate at which the prices of these products would increase. This is a microcosm for what we'll see with basically every product in basically every supermarket for a while now. Tesco don't want to keep prices low for the consumer's sake, they want to keep prices low because that's how supermarkets maintain their market share.

And a special round of applause to the free market capitalists and libertarians who shat their fucking pants at a company reacting to market forces. That's a special kind of stupid there, if not really exceptional in this day and age.
 

-Plasma Reus-

Service guarantees member status
I think May has positioned herself quite cleverly, and can use parliament to go..."sorry I tried" to leave voters

If the supreme court rules that parliament has to trigger article 50, it wont happen....can never see parliament voting to do article 50...what that does for democracy I have no idea, on this forum it would be seen as the right thing, outside of Neo-Gaf you can expect all sorts of shit kicking off..

If parliament gets a final vote on the deal May brings back, and if it is outside of the single market, I can also not seeing it get through, this would be hugely damaging as it would effectively cause a perpetual cycle of uncertainty....

Both of these things are outside of the PM's hands...can she trust the whips to get all her MP's onside? I am not so sure....if I was her I would call an election, I think she is going to need a bigger majority down the road

Honestly, it only says one thing:
It is good that there are safeguards like the parliament vote in place.
 

EmiPrime

Member
£350m extra a week? Unlikely, the NHS somehow needs to make £22bn of savings.

No extra money for NHS, Theresa May tells health chief


Exclusive: PM says service should focus on efficiencies to fill £22bn hole despite warnings hospitals close to breaking point


Theresa May has told the head of the NHS that it will get no extra money despite rapidly escalating problems that led to warnings this week that hospitals are close to breaking point.

The prime minister dashed any hopes of a cash boost in next month’s autumn statement when she met Simon Stevens, the chief executive of NHS England, senior NHS sources have told the Guardian. Instead she told him last month that the NHS should urgently focus on making efficiencies to fill the £22bn hole in its finances and not publicly seek more than the “£10bn extra” that ministers insist they have already pledged to provide during this parliament.

...

“No 10’s message at the meeting was quite blunt and stark, that there will be no more money. Theresa May and Philip Hammond say that they presided over big efficiency programmes at the Home Office and MoD and didn’t whinge about it. Their view is that the NHS is already doing very well, but that’s head in the sand stuff,” said one NHS insider who was among those briefed on the meeting.

NHS leaders privately fear that May’s remarks indicate that she will be much tougher on the service’s pleas for more cash than David Cameron and does not appear to appreciate the extent of its deepening problems. She is said to be sympathetic to the view of many senior Treasury officials that, as one NHS source put it, “always giving the NHS more money is throwing good money after bad, like pouring water on to sand”.

...

“The view from the top of government appears to be that the NHS has been given the extra money it asked for and should deliver what is expected of it. But this misses the point that demand for services is rising rapidly and the NHS is managing with the lowest funding increases in its history,” he said.
 

PJV3

Member
"Efficiency savings". Such a nebulous, bullshit phrase.


I didn't think it was going to last long once Cameron and Osborne went, resentment at ring- fencing certain departments was hardly a secret.

And to be fair(sort of) she took flak cutting police budgets, so a department asking for more on top was going to rub her the wrong way.
 

Tuffty

Member
Michael Gove accuses the Remain campaign of "slut shaming" the British public. It's like your dad trying to use modern slang to seem down with the kids.

May assures Nissan will be shielded from Brexit tariffs. Interestingly is the following:

Sunderland exports 76 per cent of its cars to the EU, and has been described by Mr Ghosn in the past as a “European plant based in the UK”.

Ministers are looking at whether industries with complex supply chains might be given a carve out and remain in the customs union — if Britain left it.

Something something taking back control.
 
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