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The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM
- Thread starter Hasney
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Is this a parody? It's so hard to tell with UK politics these days.
AHA-Lambda
Member
We've gone full retard now.
QuicheFontaine
Member
Haha, first time I've heard this! At least some good came from this article.
Seriously though, that petition had 98 signatures at time of writing. Is there no actual news around these days?
War Peaceman
You're a big guy.
Theresa May is a moron if that is her sticking point. The anti-immigrant people will always complain about immigrants, it doesn't matter what the numbers are. Those complaints are her party's bread and butter. What will ruin her is wrecking the economy by leaving the single market.
RedSparrows
Member
In other news, bears shit in the woods! ;D
Audioboxer
Member
She's counting on unifying the UKIPers behind the Tories to further eliminate any chance of Labour ever getting back into power.
The Tories are that self-interested all of this is just a big game of retaining power no matter the cost.
I don't know why but I have a tough time believing immigration is such a huge deal for her. I feel like she'll do this to get all the Leavers on her side, but then what? What is she really after? Does she went the crown?!?!
War Peaceman
You're a big guy.
It is a short term strategy that will fall apart when the economy collapses.
FlammableD
Banned
I mean she has a track record in this regard...
Audioboxer
Member
I think the bet there is many of the British people will do the British thing and continue to look for/blame a scapegoat. I mean immigrants are going to remain the punching bag for a long time. The Scots will be a good one as well in this moment in time with indyref2 looming ~ As in we can be blamed for trying to break up the union and that further hurts the economy.
Trust me, most of us have been alive long enough to know now the British way is to always find someone or something else to blame. I mean instead of trying to sort Labour out people would rather just say "Labour are the reason the country votes Tory". So the Conservatives basically have free reign to do and say whatever the fuck they want and the people will blame someone else. The idea of holding the Conservatives accountable is a lost cause.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
There are 64,000,000 people in this country, all of whom have rather different ways that share only loose connections. Given about half of them voted Remain to begin with, they won't need to find a scapegoat, and a reasonable proportion who voted Leave won't care anyway, so your "British way" doesn't even describe a plurality of Britons. The national stereotyping is somewhat tedious at this point.
Audioboxer
Member
Continue to enjoy the influx of articles, media comments and behaviour from many people that say otherwise!
Fantastapotamus
Wrong about commas, wrong about everything
RedSparrows
Member
That doesn't mean your stereotypes are valid, though. How about them Scottish Leave voters, broo haa insular jocks, bla bla bla.
Boring, isn't it.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Right, but that's not the British way. That's the "Leave voter that realizes they made an arse of themselves way"; so stop tarring and feathering everyone who doesn't belong in that category. Nobody here is making Jock jokes.
Audioboxer
Member
No, I have no issue calling out Scottish Leave voters.
Hyperbolic remarks to make fun of entirely depressing and ridiculous times we live in. I know I'm an easy target but get used to many British people echoing my sentiments as they fall further out of love with the country they live in. Heck, there is LOADS of English people on GAF absolutely railing on the UK and the state it is in. You don't need to be English though to bash and mock the UK, I mean us Scots are still Brits till its voted otherwise
Remember the Conservatives are the ones who love to coin "British values". That narrative is eating itself alive.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I'm pretty happy to call out the state of the UK, but that's very different from calling out people who don't deserve it. James O'Brien had it bang on the money when he said that we shouldn't blame people for being trusting. The people who deserve our scorn are specific people and movements: the Farages and Johnsons; but also those who did such an awful job of the Remain campaign like Cameron and Osborne. Keep the venom for them.
I've read this many times on here since this whole thing started. Don't you agree that while it might sound funny in a way it's sti pretty dumb? I know that we in Germany seem to be really into complaining but is there actually proof out there that Germans complain more than the rest? Is there even a way to quantify this? Like, hotel reviews abroad maybe or something. 😄
Audioboxer
Member
Trusting? How long does the UK need to keep voting in a Tory Government that continually sweeps in with a wrecking ball every time.
If you haven't noticed the Conservatives polling went UP recently. The people who deserve at least 50% of the scorn are those who keep rewarding shitty politicians.
Go look up British people, mostly English, being interviewed about Brexit. We have just lived through the campaigning that was full of open immigrant rhetoric and xenophobia. That was the height of British people complaining about a class of people "below" them as the reason the country is in a mess. Punching down.
Then of course you have tons of the poorest English areas voting LEAVE and now complaining jobs are being lost and EU funding that once helped them is going to go away (especially around University funding).
RedSparrows
Member
Antithesis?
It's getting really annoying how you can't dare question Brexit. Excuse me for not wanting to drive off the cliff. The tone is getting rather angry and I sense people are wavering but can't just admit this is a terrible idea and politicians are basically self serving opportunists who will drive us off a cliff if it keeps them a seat in their constituency and whatever weird power policy dreams they want.
The media needs to start holding the politicians and publics feet over the fire because they just get to spout nonsense with no questioning, we don't like EU laws etc. okay but nobody ever says, name a few bad ones? UK was fine before the EU, no it wasn't. Do they not know the EU is not some monster to beat the UK with and serves to make trade, prosperity easier more than anything else along with good social values and protections. Brexit is never about the good, they can't name anything better, just take back control and for what, less immigrants and I bet by and large people have a problem with those outside the EU were the government has complete control and long before. It's baffling. If anything, immigration will not change and is just a carrot to push them over the line. What is this Brexit utopia people and politicians want because nobody has explained it or is that because it will be nothing but. Trade deals that don't favour the UK because we aren't big enough to have any sway, great start. Soft Brexit with no say and worse than what we have now or Hard Brexit into oblivion. Will somebody just get us off the crazy train. Are they idiots or dangerous career politicians or both?
Honestly, fuck the vote. Don't be stupid, acknowledge the UK government has ignored much of the UK, made mistakes, hasn't done enough to create a skilled workforce from school leavers to adults with training and apprenticeship, stop sucking the tit of Chinese steel over home industry as an example of the EU doing right and UK vetoed it, yes that happened or how about building ships and trains in the UK, let's give Germany the contracts. The UK government needs to step up and the media needs to blame them instead of the EU over and over again. You can't talk but then you actions show something else, the UK government has been getting away with it for too long. No houses, well build some! Not enough tax income, have some balls and fix the tax system and hold companies to account instead of giving them sweet deals, cough Facebook, Amazon Starbucks etc. There is nothing holding the UK back within the EU but they want you to think every problem is the EU. It's just sad.
The media needs to start holding the politicians and publics feet over the fire because they just get to spout nonsense with no questioning, we don't like EU laws etc. okay but nobody ever says, name a few bad ones? UK was fine before the EU, no it wasn't. Do they not know the EU is not some monster to beat the UK with and serves to make trade, prosperity easier more than anything else along with good social values and protections. Brexit is never about the good, they can't name anything better, just take back control and for what, less immigrants and I bet by and large people have a problem with those outside the EU were the government has complete control and long before. It's baffling. If anything, immigration will not change and is just a carrot to push them over the line. What is this Brexit utopia people and politicians want because nobody has explained it or is that because it will be nothing but. Trade deals that don't favour the UK because we aren't big enough to have any sway, great start. Soft Brexit with no say and worse than what we have now or Hard Brexit into oblivion. Will somebody just get us off the crazy train. Are they idiots or dangerous career politicians or both?
Honestly, fuck the vote. Don't be stupid, acknowledge the UK government has ignored much of the UK, made mistakes, hasn't done enough to create a skilled workforce from school leavers to adults with training and apprenticeship, stop sucking the tit of Chinese steel over home industry as an example of the EU doing right and UK vetoed it, yes that happened or how about building ships and trains in the UK, let's give Germany the contracts. The UK government needs to step up and the media needs to blame them instead of the EU over and over again. You can't talk but then you actions show something else, the UK government has been getting away with it for too long. No houses, well build some! Not enough tax income, have some balls and fix the tax system and hold companies to account instead of giving them sweet deals, cough Facebook, Amazon Starbucks etc. There is nothing holding the UK back within the EU but they want you to think every problem is the EU. It's just sad.
Audioboxer
Member
Yeah I've used that word wrongly. Not sure the technical word I was looking for. Essentially to say "the height of". My brain has had a moment there.
Apex? Epitome is also nice
Anyhoo I doubt there's a single country that doesn't engage in scapegoating. I'm all for pointing fingers at the people that fucked up but trying to make it a "British" thing is just weird.
Audioboxer
Member
Yeah, thanks for correcting me.
But basically don't call out the British for scapegoating because "other countries do it!"? The difference right now is we have just voted LEAVE to come out of the EU and are the laughing stock of Europe. Once another country follows in such a fashion they can be equals with how stupid we are. As I said above we have the audacity to also now push the Conservatives UP in the polling... It doesn't get any crazier. The same party now saying NO extra funding for the NHS.... Comical.
I fully expect to see some familiar faces jump on other GAFers when they leave remarks that are far more inflammatory than mine to suggest their hate for the UK/British people. I have seen far worse coming from English people aimed at England than the hyperbole I'm spouting to attack the UK. I know my pro-Scottish independence stance is rustling many jimmies, as well as my current avatar, but again there has been quite a few English GAFers stating they want to go live abroad. I'm not there until it's confirmed my country is going to have to follow the UK into the abyss. Until then I will be defiant in the face of Brexit and do my best to support cutting away from the sinking Conservative UK.
I never said don't call them out, in fact I think I said the opposite. I just thought it was weird to make it a "British" thing (as opposed to, say, a "dumb as fuck" thing).
QuicheFontaine
Member
Wat?
How is that the lesson? It looks like Italy's car production has shifted to Slovakia because Slovakia joined the single market 12 years ago? I don't really see what the UK can do about Poland and Slovakia being cheaper places to make cars.
Audioboxer
Member
But Brexit is a British thing? We are in a rather unique situation where a campaign led by lies, rhetoric and xenophobia up to the upper elite of our political hierarchy won over the country.
I get people wanting to salvage the UK, but some of us me being one believe it's truly a burning ship with a population that is continuing to crucify itself by voting Conservative. Largely that population resides in England. Just the way it is, you can get pissy at the other nations in the UK if you want, but England steamrolls ahead with Conservative voting.
Even the Americans can rally behind Hillary Clinton to keep Trump out. Bash Milliband/Corbyn all you want but both would be a million times better than what we have. It's like American voting in Trump, and then continuing to reward Trump for destroying the country.
It's just an example of how their car industry could go down.
It's a reflection of the effects of becoming increasingly uncompetitive in production cost. The effect of labour on overall cost is not as strong now as it was in the past due to increasing automation, but of course tariffs would do severe damage to the competitiveness of the British motor industry. It seems unlikely that the industry will survive at anywhere near its current level without single market membership.
QuicheFontaine
Member
But that example shows that it's unlikely to survive at anywhere near its current level with single market membership.
Looking at production figures, production over the past few years has been growing slowly in the UK, rather than declining. The Financial Times apparently even predicted in 2013 that production will reach a new record level by 2017. So there is no reason to assume that were circumstances to remain unchanged, a sudden severe decline is likely. Clearly, automation and other factors are currently having such an effect that the motor industry in the UK can remain competitive. If circumstances change, by for instance the introduction of tariffs, then it seems likely this trend will change and a severe decline is to be expected.
Current Western countries compete on quality, not price. Britain can compete based on worker-quality and productivity despite the wage gap for now.
QuicheFontaine
Member
That's all fair enough (and I can't really disagree with production figures anyway), but I still can't see what is trying to be said by pointing at Italy here. No tarriffs were introduced and their industry declined. As for quality, the Italians make some damn fine cars, and it still declined.
Frankfurter
Member
He's trying to make the point that a country that's less competitive, be it due to internal factors (high labor costs / low productivity as in Italys case) or due to "external" factors (Britain leaving the single market and therefore possibly being subject to tariffs), will be in trouble with its industry.
Um, nope?
British car manufacturing had been a huge success stories over the last decade. It continues to grow, and firms have continued to invest in UK based plants. There are many factors that go into deciding where to base a factory, it's not just the labour costs. Even with Poland being in the EU for 12 years now the UK car industry has continued to grow.
Leaving the single market will absolutely have a very large detrimental effect on the industry, and will see a shift from the UK to Eastern Europe. You are comparing a hypothetical scenario which so far hasn't shown any sign of coming true with an absolute hard truth - car manufacturing is fucked if we are out of the single market.
QuicheFontaine
Member
Well I think it's a poor analogy because, as you said, Italy's woes are related to internal factors, not tarriffs. To point to them and say "see this is why single market membership is so important" seems very odd to me.
The point is that industry is far more mobile than it used to be, and there are countries poised to take advantage of any issues. Your are missing the wood for the trees a bit I think.
RedSparrows
Member
You're missing his point I think. It's simply an example of how an industry can go down and move to another country.
Anyway, the more remarkable point is that the most important industry associations are pretty much backing the tough EU stance on Brexit.
QuicheFontaine
Member
Quite possibly! It wouldn't be the first time, and god knows I'm not an economist. I only took issue with the guy's use of Italy as an example. I don't dispute that tarriffs would be a bad thing. I don't think anyone does?
It seems a lot of people think tariffs are fine. Anyone pushing for a hard Brexit, or WTO standards, either accepts there will be tariffs or is flat out lying to you.
It does vex me that people like Boris Johnson can say with no shame that we could get a better deal than the single market and go unchallenged. It's complete bizarre insanity on every level.
Clay Davis
Member
Hello UK gaf, everyone having a good day?
I had a question that I was hoping some of the more learned posters could help me with, it's about the devalued pound.
I've seen a large number of people saying this isn't a bad thing and that the pound had in fact been overvalued for decades and that now it's back to normals levels, we'll be much more competitive, which seems reasonable at first glance, but upon thinking about it further, doesn;t this scenario require us, the UK, to be a largely manufacturing country with an export deficit?
As I understand it, we primarily export services and those are immune from currency devaluations, so how does a weaker pound benefit us?
Isn't it the opposite? We're negatively impacted compared to a few months ago?
I had a question that I was hoping some of the more learned posters could help me with, it's about the devalued pound.
I've seen a large number of people saying this isn't a bad thing and that the pound had in fact been overvalued for decades and that now it's back to normals levels, we'll be much more competitive, which seems reasonable at first glance, but upon thinking about it further, doesn;t this scenario require us, the UK, to be a largely manufacturing country with an export deficit?
As I understand it, we primarily export services and those are immune from currency devaluations, so how does a weaker pound benefit us?
Isn't it the opposite? We're negatively impacted compared to a few months ago?
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
So, a few things:
1. The pound doesn't have a "normal" level. The pound is worth as much as anyone is willing to pay for it. There is no right or correct level, it simply reflects how much people want to buy or sell British goods. However, if you mean "normal" in the sense of "usual, standard, the average level", then the current level is definitely abnormal - it is the lowest real value in 168 years.
2. The pound being weaker or stronger is neither good nor bad in general. It is good or bad for specific groups. So, if the pound is strong, then foreign goods are cheaper to buy; the UK imports a lot of food, so people who buy food now have a cheaper bill. However, UK goods are more expensive for foreigners to buy: if you work in manufacturing, then your goods are more expensive, sell less, and so at the end of the day you get more money.
3. We can therefore say whether specific groups are better off or worse off as the pound changes. Anyone who works in an heavily-export orientated industry is going to better off - while the price of their shopping bill might go up, they'll probably have more money coming in. Anyone who doesn't is going to be worse off - the price of their shopping bill goes up, and they won't have more money coming in to make up for it.
4. Most of the poorest people in the UK do not work in export-industries. Manufacturing is actually relatively highly paid these days. The UK does high-skill and high-capital manufacturing that uses a relatively small number of skilled technical workers. Most of the poorest people in the UK work in services - specifically, in retail. Retail isn't an export business. Retail is, if anything, an import business - if the cost of marmite goes up for Tesco, they'll look to cut costs, including wage costs. By contrast, most of the very wealthy in the UK work in export industries: high end manufacturing, legal services, corporate services, and so on. So the effect of a weaker pound is to make it better for wealthier people and more difficult for poorer people.
5. Finally, there's too much focus on whether the pound falling is good or bad in and of itself, and not enough focus on what the pound means as a piece of information. Why would the price of the pound fall? Well, because people don't want pounds as much. Why do people want pounds? To buy goods produced in the UK. If less goods are produced in the UK, then people want less pounds, so the pound falls. So the most important thing the pound is telling us is this: people expect the UK to produce less goods! Or, in economese: people expect UK GDP (gross domestic product) to fall.
JonnyDBrit
Member
Its a little complex, and requires understanding differing degrees of relative economic power. The UK is primarily a service economy, yes, but we're actually still one of the largest manufacturers (primarily in complex goods not easily put together in sweatshops, I think) in the world, currently at Number 11. Now both of these are actually theoretically something that could benefit from a devalued pound, and rely on a common assumption: Plus well, exports are not the entirety of our economy.
Namely, people will buy more British (whether goods or services) if we're easier to afford. Enough so in fact, that the higher quantity will offset each individual being worth less. So its okay if we lost say, 10% of our value if it encourages a 20% in purchasing from abroad.
Now you may have realised that's incredibly reductive, because it doesn't account for other factors that may affect the effective purchasing price - like say, trade tariffs - or the degree to which people can prefer convenience to a cheap price point. It also doesn't address the effects to which a devalued pound can affect domestic production chains, because of course we do import a lot of raw materials that feed that aforementioned manufacturing.
It'll be good to a point for most exporters. Service providers who export will benefit as their inputs are mostly personnel who have just got a good bit cheaper.
It'll be bad for consumers as prices of imports will rise.
Interestingly while most economists considered the pound overvalued in relation to the strength of the economy, in terms of Purchasing Power Parity most considered it pretty undervalued against the Dollar. The purchasing power of a currency refers to how much of the currency is needed to purchase a given unit of a good, or common basket of goods and services. Starting from this low point I believe will magnify the felt effects of the drag on consumers buying power.
Hopefully the retailers will be able to absorb some of the pain, but unless wages shoot up most people are going to feel the pinch.
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