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[QuicheFontaine]

Hello UK gaf, everyone having a good day?

I had a question that I was hoping some of the more learned posters could help me with, it's about the devalued pound.

I've seen a large number of people saying this isn't a bad thing and that the pound had in fact been overvalued for decades and that now it's back to normals levels, we'll be much more competitive, which seems reasonable at first glance, but upon thinking about it further, doesn;t this scenario require us, the UK, to be a largely manufacturing country with an export deficit?

As I understand it, we primarily export services and those are immune from currency devaluations, so how does a weaker pound benefit us?

Isn't it the opposite? We're negatively impacted compared to a few months ago?

How are services immune from currency devaluations? I provide services for foreign clients, and if I bill them in dollars it's currently much cheaper for them than it was a year ago.

 

[Volotaire]

Laura Kuenssberg
@bbclaurak
Stephen Woolfe is quitting UKIP - tells @AlexForsythBBC, UKIP is in a 'death spiral' and is 'ungovernable' - her interview on @BBCNews at 6

5:59pm · 17 Oct 2016 · Twitter Web Client

.

 

[oti]

.

TAKE BACK GOVERNABILITY

 

[Sonic Boom]

Speaking as an American who looked on the Brexit vote with dismay, but isn't up on the week-to-week political developments across the pond, what's the current situation with regard to Scotland and Northern Ireland? I know Theresa May promised a hard Brexit, and I imagine folks outside of England and Wales aren't too happy about that. Is there another independence referendum coming for Scotland? Prospects for renewed violence in Northern Ireland if the border is closed?

 

[Audioboxer]

Speaking as an American who looked on the Brexit vote with dismay, but isn't up on the week-to-week political developments across the pond, what's the current situation with regard to Scotland and Northern Ireland? I know Theresa May promised a hard Brexit, and I imagine folks outside of England and Wales aren't too happy about that. Is there another independence referendum coming for Scotland? Prospects for renewed violence in Northern Ireland if the border is closed?

Potentially - http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1293589

 

[CTLance]

Laura Kuenssberg
@bbclaurak
Stephen Woolfe is quitting UKIP - tells @AlexForsythBBC, UKIP is in a 'death spiral' and is 'ungovernable' - her interview on @BBCNews at 6

5:59pm · 17 Oct 2016 · Twitter Web Client

.

I mean, what else is there to say, really.

 

[Sonic Boom]

Potentially - http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1293589

How does such work? Does Scotland require Parliament's authorization to proceed with a referendum, or is the power to call for a vote within their devolved powers? I should think the independence faction there should be eager to move ahead if May insists on triggering Article 50 -- it's hard to imagine a better opportunity ever presenting itself again.

 

[Dougald]

Just paid my yearly web hosting fee... in dollars. Bloody hell

I'm going on holiday in March and have already decided to buy currency ASAP.

 

[Jezbollah]

.

That ruckas about Woolf wanting to leave UKIP gave him the perfect reason to leave UKIP didnt it?

This comment probably belongs in UKPoliGAF, but even if it means UKIP loses half it's vote, that means the Conservatives have big opportunity to win up to 40 seats in the next election (based upon pre-2018 boundaries).

 

[Joni]

Did he ever pay back France for the healthcare? Thinks he can come in, not pay taxes and use our mainland healthcare.

 

[kitch9]

How does such work? Does Scotland require Parliament's authorization to proceed with a referendum, or is the power to call for a vote within their devolved powers? I should think the independence faction there should be eager to move ahead if May insists on triggering Article 50 -- it's hard to imagine a better opportunity ever presenting itself again.

If the SNP had those powers there'd be a referendum every week until the right result was obtained.

 

[PJV3]

.

They don't like me and want someone else to lead, so I'm off for a sulk and to be a Tory.

 

[Beefy]

@LordStras
#IPBill Lib Dems just voted alone in Lords against Tories & Labour to try to stop virtual database on all UK citizens. More to follow

@LordStras
Lib Dems about to vote alone again, this time against Govt making your ISP keep a log of all your web activity. #IPBill

@LordStras
Same result. Labour peers (except one) voted with Tories for making all your Internet activity available to cops & many other orgs. v sad.

@LordStras
Labour just caved in over our attempt to increase the power of the judges who will watch over Govt snooping. That won't stop us. #IPBill

LordStras
@maznu Labour sided with the govt to stop more oversight.

@LordStras

#IPBill Lib Dem peers still fighting tonight. More to come on Wednesday.

Cheers Corbyn

 

[RedSparrows]

Speaking as an American who looked on the Brexit vote with dismay, but isn't up on the week-to-week political developments across the pond, what's the current situation with regard to Scotland and Northern Ireland? I know Theresa May promised a hard Brexit, and I imagine folks outside of England and Wales aren't too happy about that. Is there another independence referendum coming for Scotland? Prospects for renewed violence in Northern Ireland if the border is closed?

And plenty within, don't forget.

 

[jelly]

@LordStras
#IPBill Lib Dems just voted alone in Lords against Tories & Labour to try to stop virtual database on all UK citizens. More to follow

@LordStras
Lib Dems about to vote alone again, this time against Govt making your ISP keep a log of all your web activity. #IPBill

@LordStras
Same result. Labour peers (except one) voted with Tories for making all your Internet activity available to cops & many other orgs. v sad.

@LordStras
Labour just caved in over our attempt to increase the power of the judges who will watch over Govt snooping. That won't stop us. #IPBill

LordStras
@maznu Labour sided with the govt to stop more oversight.

@LordStras

#IPBill Lib Dem peers still fighting tonight. More to come on Wednesday.

Cheers Corbyn

Well, that's very sad indeed.

Lib Dems, good on them.

 

[Audioboxer]

@LordStras
#IPBill Lib Dems just voted alone in Lords against Tories & Labour to try to stop virtual database on all UK citizens. More to follow

@LordStras
Lib Dems about to vote alone again, this time against Govt making your ISP keep a log of all your web activity. #IPBill

@LordStras
Same result. Labour peers (except one) voted with Tories for making all your Internet activity available to cops & many other orgs. v sad.

@LordStras
Labour just caved in over our attempt to increase the power of the judges who will watch over Govt snooping. That won't stop us. #IPBill

LordStras
@maznu Labour sided with the govt to stop more oversight.

@LordStras

#IPBill Lib Dem peers still fighting tonight. More to come on Wednesday.

Cheers Corbyn

Labour continuing to be Tory lite. Praise the Lib Dems.

 

[Acorn]

Woolfe wisely realises UKIP has no purpose anymore with May taking their clothes.

 

[Acorn]

Labour continuing to be Tory lite. Praise the Lib Dems.

Dumb this is an issue the govt has a soft underbelly with.

 

[Biggzy]

@LordStras
#IPBill Lib Dems just voted alone in Lords against Tories & Labour to try to stop virtual database on all UK citizens. More to follow

@LordStras
Lib Dems about to vote alone again, this time against Govt making your ISP keep a log of all your web activity. #IPBill

@LordStras
Same result. Labour peers (except one) voted with Tories for making all your Internet activity available to cops & many other orgs. v sad.

@LordStras
Labour just caved in over our attempt to increase the power of the judges who will watch over Govt snooping. That won't stop us. #IPBill

LordStras
@maznu Labour sided with the govt to stop more oversight.

@LordStras

#IPBill Lib Dem peers still fighting tonight. More to come on Wednesday.

Cheers Corbyn

Labour has a poor record when it comes to civil liberties, so this is nothing new.

 

[D4Danger]

Labour continuing to be Tory lite. Praise the Lib Dems.

Labour peers.

 

[Linkified]

So these were the amendments to the bill being voted on in the House of Lords? Doesn't that mean it still needs another reading in the House of Lords "as is".

How did the vote go in the commons?

 

[Beefy]

So these were the amendments to the bill being voted on in the House of Lords? Doesn't that mean it still needs another reading in the House of Lords "as is".

How did the vote go in the commons?

If I remember rightly the only amendments were that they can't log history of MPs....

 

[Acorn]

So these were the amendments to the bill being voted on in the House of Lords? Doesn't that mean it still needs another reading in the House of Lords "as is".

How did the vote go in the commons?

Isn't this third reading?

 

[Linkified]

If I remember rightly the only amendments were that they can't log history of MPs....

Weren't those votes for the amendments listed in those tweets you pulled.

 

[Xun]

Not surprising, unfortunately.

The "New Labour" side of Labour love mass surveillance.

I trust only the Lib Dems on civil liberties.

 

[Acorn]

Not surprising, unfortunately.

The "New Labour" side of Labour love mass surveillance.

I trust only the Lib Dems on civil liberties.

Some members of the Conservatives could be brought to the rejection side if the opposition wasn't in a shambles. Especially on the harder stuff in there.

 

[Beefy]

Weren't those votes for the amendments listed in those tweets you pulled.

They are over the whole thing as far as I know.

 

[Linkified]

Isn't this third reading?

Nope:

http://www.parliament.uk/business/news/2016/june/lords-debates-investigatory-powers-bill/

 

[Deleted member 231381]

So these were the amendments to the bill being voted on in the House of Lords? Doesn't that mean it still needs another reading in the House of Lords "as is".

How did the vote go in the commons?

It got heavily amended by a big batch of joint Labour-SNP amendments during the third reading, then got voted through by both the Conservatives and Labour. It's had a fair few amendments, so it'll get bounced back to the Commons regardless at the end of the third reading.

I'm fine with Labour doing whatever they're doing now. There's only been one Conservative rebel throughout the entire process (Daniel Kawczynski), so this bill is definitely happening (barring like a snap general election or whatever). Best anyone can do is just try and build allies in the opposing party and get amendments that make it less bad - there are Conservatives who are edgy about it but don't want to make a big public fuss. Keir Starmer's been pretty on point in trying to marshal through changes. That kind of subtlety gets lost in the media reporting, though.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Labour peers.

Labour MPs, too - not Corbyn because he was absent for the vote, but everyone from Chuka to McDonnell voted in favour. They know it's passing and Keir Starmer has been trying to get damage control done by trying to win round wavering Conservatives to make limiting amendments. It's quite funny because lots of the changes Labour is putting forward were suggested by the SNP, but the SNP can't be the ones to table it or the Conservatives would never accept it, so Labour is putting forward SNP ideas that the SNP then vote against so that Labour can vote for a Conservative party bill to make Conservative MPs vote for SNP amendments against the desires of the Conservative party leadership.

Politics. The only consistent thread is that the Lib Dems are irrelevant.

 

[Acorn]

Labour MPs, too - not Corbyn because he was absent for the vote, but everyone from Chuka to McDonnell voted in favour. They know it's passing and Keir Starmer has been trying to get damage control done by trying to win round wavering Conservatives to make limiting amendments. It's quite funny because lots of the changes Labour is putting forward were suggested by the SNP, but the SNP can't be the ones to table it or the Conservatives would never accept it, so Labour is putting forward SNP ideas that the SNP then vote against so that Labour can vote for a Conservative party bill to make Conservative MPs vote for SNP amendments against the desires of the Conservative party leadership.

Politics.

My head.

 

[Beefy]

Sooooo what's a good proxy?

 

[Linkified]

It got heavily amended by a big batch of joint Labour-SNP amendments during the third reading, then got voted through by both the Conservatives and Labour. It's had a fair few amendments, so it'll get bounced back to the Commons regardless at the end of the third reading.

I'm fine with Labour doing whatever they're doing now. There's only been one Conservative rebel throughout the entire process (Daniel Kawczynski), so this bill is definitely happening (barring like a snap general election or whatever). Best anyone can do is just try and build allies in the opposing party and get amendments that make it less bad - there are Conservatives who are edgy about it but don't want to make a big public fuss. Keir Starmer's been pretty on point in trying to marshal through changes. That kind of subtlety gets lost in the media reporting, though.

So apparently there is a third report day in Lords on October 19th. Then the Third reading starts in n the Lords on October 25th after that it goes through to Royal Assent.(i.e law)

 

[Deleted member 231381]

So apparently there is a third report day in Lords on October 19th, then Third reading in the Lords after that it goes through to Royal Assent.(i.e law)

I don't think so? The Lords have tabled amendments, so it has to go back to the HoC for another reading before it can get Royal Assent - although to be fair the final Commons reading will probably just be a rubberstamp, so it's the final Lords reading that matters.

 

[Rellik]

Sooooo what's a good proxy?

I got myself on a VPN a long time ago. Life is good.

 

[Linkified]

I don't think so? The Lords have tabled amendments, so it has to go back to the HoC for another reading before it can get Royal Assent - although to be fair the final Commons reading will probably just be a rubberstamp, so it's the final Lords reading that matters.

http://www.parliament.uk/about/how/laws/passage-bill/

http://www.parliament.uk/business/news/2016/june/lords-debates-investigatory-powers-bill/

A third day of report stage is scheduled for 19 October.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

http://www.parliament.uk/about/how/laws/passage-bill/

http://www.parliament.uk/business/news/2016/june/lords-debates-investigatory-powers-bill/

I don't think you're disagreeing with what I'm saying? The Bill will have one more reading in the Lords. When it passes the third reading in the Lords, it will have passed the Lords, but the wording will have been amended such that it isn't the same bill that passed in the Commons. A bill can't go up for Royal Assent unless both Houses agree on the wording (or unless this is the third time a bill has gone past the Lords). So after the Lords' third reading, the bill will have to go back to the Commons for another reading. If the Commons then passes it with no amendments, both readings will be the same and both will have passed, and so the bill goes on to receive Royal Assent.

http://www.parliament.uk/about/how/laws/passage-bill/commons/coms-consideration-of-amendments/

 

[CTLance]

My head.

I think I need a flowchart. And an Aspirin.

This is some n-dimensional chess bullshit.

 

[Pancake Mix]

And plenty within, don't forget.

A majority in England and Wales are for this though.

The problem is that the UK contains 2 more reluctant members (Northern Ireland has a Unionist majority but Scotland would be a risk right at this moment if put to a vote) and didn't need this as a whole. Additionally, Northern Ireland is not supposed to have a change in status without the consent of the majority in that province/constituent country. By definition this will be a change in status.

Scotland voted to remain in the UK in 2014, and part of the successful no campaign there correctly noted that an independent Scotland would be out of the EU, and you can bet Spain would block such a state from joining anytime soon.

So this is a headache for the entire British Isles, all thanks to you know who. The UK can probably survive this, but it will take a single market compromise most likely, which means not being afraid of Croatian waitresses.

Restricting refugees beyond EU quotas (if they even exist for associated non-members) and reducing non-EU immigration could be done instead to protect the English and Welsh majority Isolationist opinion, whilst not killing the economy with a hard Brexit.

 

[Piecake]

Now that notice has arrived, things look a lot bleaker. The pound’s decline has started to look anything but orderly, with daily plunges compounded by a surprise “flash crash” that obliterated the currency momentarily but left a lasting scent of panic. This is quite typical of an emerging market, where currency swings tend to be much greater than in rich countries, in part because of the uncertainty generated by fractious, dysfunctional political systems. Worse yet, bond prices have been falling in the currency’s wake, pushing up expectations of inflation for all the wrong reasons — not because Brits expect the economy to boom and their wages to rise but rather because they expect a currency-driven loss of purchasing power. While it’s impossible to predict the pace at which Britain’s economic malaise and increasing isolation will progress — much still hinges on negotiations to come — it is feasible to determine the avenues through which the steady, gradual decay in British living standards is likely to take place....

...Sound familiar? It’s the sort of concern economists long reserved for the developing world.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/10/17...it-europe-united-kingdom-article-50-currency/

Not posting it because I agree with, but posting it because you guys might 'enjoy' it

 

[Pancake Mix]

I don't think Scotland will leave and I think things will eventually calm down, but someone who likes pigs less would have foreseen unnecessary risks that he would be entirely to blame for.

Realistically, tightening immigration outside of EU citizens could have been an obvious alternative carrot to dangle at nationalists that could have resulted in some votes, whereas thinking you could ever get a good deal with the EU or stay in the single market with one you'd ever be happy with was a zero sum game.

A hard Brexit is the only way to actually leave the EU in more but name and the financial and political risks should have been better represented.

 

[frontieruk]

http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/10/17...it-europe-united-kingdom-article-50-currency/

Not posting it because I agree with, but posting it because you guys might 'enjoy' it

How could we "enjoy" the prediction of the failure of our country? You may not believe it because you "feel" leaving was the right thing to do and "experts" aren't worth listening to, but this is already affecting peoples lives and I fully expect to see riots on the streets when living standards plummet.

 

[Joni]

http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/10/17...it-europe-united-kingdom-article-50-currency/

Not posting it because I agree with, but posting it because you guys might 'enjoy' it

Notice still hasn't actually arrived. May is still waiting it out.

 

[Piecake]

How could we "enjoy" the prediction of the failure of our country? You may not believe it because you "feel" leaving was the right thing to do and "experts" aren't worth listening to, but this is already affecting peoples lives and I fully expect to see riots on the streets when living standards plummet.

I am not quite sure how you got that I voted for leave or wanted Britain to ditch the EU out of what I wrote.

I put quotes around enjoy for a reason. That was to indicate that reading it will likely produce the opposite feeling, or a feeling of self-mockery and schadenfreude, and at the same time mocking the people who voted for leave. Perhaps I implied too much that that just simply wasn't conveyed.

 

[Volotaire]

CPI 12 month rate was 1% for September 2016 meeting expectations of a rise due to cheap fuel

Here's a summary of the report

Drivers

• Rising prices for clothing and footwear
  - Mainly driven from women’s garments which rose 6% Aug - Sep relative to 3.3% a year ago (rise in prices is normal in Sep with previous trends)
  - Reports of firms are placing in short term protection against exchange rate changes which would offset effects of depreciation in sterling increasing the cost of importing goods and outsourcing production
• Overnight hotel stays
  - Prices rose 0.7% between Aug and Sep relative to 0.2% a year ago
  - Upward contribution due to a price of overnight hotel stay in overnight hotel stays relative to a year ago
• Motor fuels, prices for gas
  - rising prices for motor fuels had a large upward effect with petrol rising 1.2p between Aug and Sep 2016
  - In 2015, fuel prices fell throughout the second half of the year
  - Upward effect was largely offset by price of rail fares which fell 24.2% between August and September 2016 relative to 20.4% fall a year ago

'Dis-drivers'

• Fall in air fares
• Food prices
  - Made small downward contribution with prices falling 0.3% between Aug and September 2016 relative to 0.1% rise a year ago
  -Downward contribution was offset by rising prices in non alcoholic beverages falling same 2 months last year

Others

• Miscellaneous goods and services
  - Prices rose 0.5% between Aug and Sep 2016 and unchanged 2 months ago a year ago
  - Upward effect due to contributions of appliances, and personal care products
• Housing , electricity, water
  - Prices rose 0.1% between Aug and Sep 2016 falling 0.2% a year ago
  - Upward effect in change came from price of gas which was unchanged having fallen 2.1% for Aug and Sep a year ago

The exchange rate protection by food retailers is expected since the supermarkets are engaged in a large price war, earning small margins, and can't afford to increase prices. Commentators are saying effects of sterling will appear in future months. The 2nd sharp decline in sterling was associated with the Conersvative Party Conference and the news of the Brexit timetable and other policies, which was at the start of October. There are large expectations that inflation will break 2% by 1H 2016.

Other figures

• CPIH - 1.2%
• RPI - 2%
• RPIJ - 1.3%

 

[MudoSkills]

Although I disagree with her on almost everything I've developed a weird crush on Julia Hartley Brewer.

 

[BGBW]

So the government wants to have a database that is just filled with the public calling them cunts?

 

[KingSnake]

Things are about to get real:

Brexit is simulated in Football Manager 2017, and it's going to make the game harder than ever

While the rest of the world waits to see how the government approaches the triggering of Article 50, Jacobson and his team have built a Brexit simulator into this year’s game, which models some of the consequences of the UK leaving Europe.

The world outside football is not something that had previously been incorporated into Football Manager, a game so comprehensive that some clubs are now using it as a resource to help scout players. But Brexit, says Jacobson, was too big to be left out: “We usually try and keep politics out of the game because nobody wants it rammed down their throat.

In-game, players of Football Manager 2017 will be alerted at some point between two and 10 years in that trade negotiations have begun, and a year later a news bulletin will detail the extent of Brexit. There are three main scenarios:

1. Soft Brexit - free movement of workers remains.

2. Footballers are granted the same special exemptions that are currently given to ‘entertainers’. This means it is easier for them to obtain work permits than other people, and it will not have a huge impact on player movement from the EU.

3. Hard Brexit: similar rules to those which currently apply to non-EU players are adopted for all non-UK players.

It is this third option that would see the biggest effect on gameplay.

 

[JonnyDBrit]

Things are about to get real:

Brexit is simulated in Football Manager 2017, and it's going to make the game harder than ever

That is depressing but beautiful. Kinda tempting to pick up the game now.

 

[Volotaire]

Things are about to get real:

Brexit is simulated in Football Manager 2017, and it's going to make the game harder than ever

I like this. Smart way of integrating political and economic ramifications in a game.