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The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM

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Pancake Mix

Copied someone else's pancake recipe
Carney is great. A few Scottish nationalists were upset when he stated the obvious in that the currency union would likely have ended if Scotland voted out.

Multiple private Scottish banks have the right to issue banknotes backed by the Bank of England. There would be no incentive to keep that arrangement with an independent country.

Also, Sweden claims they have a choice on this but in reality the EU requires every country without an opt-out granted decades ago to join the Euro zone. Scotland would be in the same position as Sweden if the EU cracked down on them.

Of course, after Brexit with the Pound performing how it is it's not as relevant now but he was absolutely right to point that fact out.

He annoyed some Brexiters with similar factual statements regarding negative economic effects. Now, it has not been as bad as he feared, but it still could be, sadly.
 
I just bought more books on Amazon UK

Quick, buy it before the prices go up:
51JJ62VuvXL._SY346_.jpg

https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01HJXVP8G/
The reviews are great too.
I wonder if the sentient pound will have a cameo in the new Zoe Quinn 'Project Tingle' game.

FAKE EDIT: Holy shit, there's a sequel!
51CrJEJ7G2L.jpg

https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01HWROW0W/
The sentient press coverage looks a bit like Mark Carney
 

KNT-Zero

Member

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
Not really.

The EU is just being pleasant about it. Realistically they would have no choice if the EU was mean about it, but at the moment they won't be.

You need to fulfill certain criteria to join Euro. You could avoid fulfilling all of them for ever if you really want and EU can't do anything meaningful about it.
 

Pancake Mix

Copied someone else's pancake recipe
Sweden will now be the largest non-Euro economy in the Union, and they're legally obligated to join.

If the EU wants to make it difficult, they can. Let's not pretend like Sweden couldn't meet the qualifications if they wanted to.
 

Walshicus

Member
Sweden will now be the largest non-Euro economy in the Union, and they're legally obligated to join.

If the EU wants to make it difficult, they can. Let's not pretend like Sweden couldn't meet the qualifications if they wanted to.

I'm sorry, but this is just a bizarre, alien interpretation of the reality of the situation. It's an unrecognisable world you've portrayed...
 

Pancake Mix

Copied someone else's pancake recipe
I'm sorry, but this is just a bizarre, alien interpretation of the reality of the situation. It's an irritable unrecognisable world you've portrayed...

I did some research on this and I'll concede.

Olle Schmidt (ALDE, SE) inquired whether Sweden could still stay out of the Eurozone. Mr Rehn replied that it is up to the Swedish people to decide on the issue.

https://web.archive.org/web/20120118074039/http://www.europarl.europa.eu/hearings/press_service/product.htm?ref=20100108IPR66990&language=EN

It doesn't really matter anyways though. I first brought this point up several pages ago because Sweden and Denmark are more likely to be sympathetic to UK positions during negotiations than most countries in the EU.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_opt-outs_from_the_European_Union

Ireland will also be pretty sympathetic because of the border and historical ties.

Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny warned that negotiations on the terms of the U.K.’s exit from the European Union may be “quite vicious,” as Prime Minister Theresa May heads for a showdown with her European counterparts.

“If the EU becomes obsessed with what the U.K. might or might not get, then Europe itself loses the plot,” Kenny said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-02/brexit-talks-may-well-get-quite-vicious-irish-pm-kenny-warns
 

Pancake Mix

Copied someone else's pancake recipe
At this point I just hope May gets torn to shreds the moment she sets foot.

Why take pleasure in the UK's economic harm?

There's potentially room for a compromise and an agreement on the "four freedoms" (though obviously nothing else because a Brexit will happen), but if what you say happens and she's rebuffed entirely then it will be a very hard Brexit and the short-term economic effect will be rather harsh.

Honestly I could see Spanish fantasies about Gibraltar (while they hold Ceuta and Melila in North Africa under similar several hundred-year-old standards) vetoing everything. Yeah, Ceuta and Melila weren't ceded in perpetuity but it's still incredibly hypocritical especially when Ceuta is on the other side of the Straight of Gibraltar. I'm not saying Spain has no rights to those areas, they've been internal for centuries, but Gibraltar has been British for centuries also and geopolitical it's similar. Additionally, virtually everyone in Gibraltar wants to remain exclusively associated with the UK.

https://www.ft.com/content/b1425ed8-a083-11e6-891e-abe238dee8e2

There are so many variables at play here that could result in a hard Brexit even if there is compromise on the EU's "four freedoms." There will be no compromise on Gibraltar ignoring the self-determination of the inhabitants.
 
Is there a good list of all the tangible negatives that have happened since Brexit vote?

- Value of pound severely reduced
- Microsoft increases enterprise services cost by 22%
- Hewlett Packard Enterprise increases costs by 10%
- Unilever pulls products from Tesco
- Tea company (I forget which) to increase prices by 50%
- Apple raising prices of all Mac computers by at least £100

And so on?
 

Conan-san

Member
Why take pleasure in the UK's economic harm?.
Well I would like to take pleasure in the opposite but the way that May conducts herself and with the bum hand she's trying ever so desperately so sell up as well as her general manor of talking a big game about considering all sides of the discussion and then being a right bitch the moment anyone blinks I'd be better off hoping for Unicorns to come flying out of North Korea.

So in the absence of hope, I'll just have my drink and watch as May gets her political shit kicked in for being the lying sacocrap that she is.

So, any predictions on this mornings high court ruling?
Besides the gotos of the market shiting itself inside out and May being a sow?
None, really.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
You need to fulfill certain criteria to join Euro. You could avoid fulfilling all of them for ever if you really want and EU can't do anything meaningful about it.

Sweden has met all the criteria in most years since and including 2000, more or less. They just argue that joining the ERM II is voluntary and a necessary condition for joining the Euro, whereas the EU holds that joining the ERM II is just the first stage of joining the Euro and necessary if you have fulfilled the conditions which don't include having joined the ERM II. For now, the EU has turned a blind eye because it just isn't worth the fuss, but it is probably true they could take Sweden to court over it and probably true they would win. It's just never been a big deal.
 
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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Government loses.

Brexit election becoming more probable.
 

chadskin

Member

Perhaps he meant "teutonic success".
The RMS Teutonic was a steamship built for the White Star Line in Belfast and was the first armed merchant cruiser.
In October, 1913, the ship narrowly avoided the same fate as the Titanic when, at 172 miles east of Belle Isle off the Newfoundland coast, it ran so close to an iceberg that it avoided collision only by reversing its engines and putting the helm hard aport. According to the October 29, 1913 issue of the Chicago Tribune, "the liner passed within twenty feet of the iceberg. The fog was so thick that even at that small distance the berg could scarcely be distinguished. It was so close that there was danger that the propeller of the ship would strike it as the vessel went around. The passengers were not aware of their peril until it had been averted. They signed a testimonial to the captain and his officers expressing their gratitude and admiration for the care and skill displayed by them."

Ya'll gonna be thanking Boris!
 
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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Rumours are May won't appeal - if she does, and loses in the Supreme Court, then there would be almost no time to draft legislation in time for her self-imposed deadline. Personally, I think that's the cover story - I think the real reason is that the Northern Ireland, Welsh, and Scottish governments have all expressed interest in being claimants if the case is taken to the Supreme Court, and May is aware of just how absolutely, totally, and horrifically awful that would look for the Union.
 
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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
So the ruling is basically saying that Parliament must vote on triggering Article 50?

Yes. Article 50 cannot be triggered except by an explicit act of parliament.

EDIT: Just for any international readers, this isn't final: the government could chose to appeal, in which case the case would go the Supreme Court. However: the verdict was relatively decisive, and most legal experts think the government would simply lose again, making May unlikely to take the case forward. Additionally;

Crab said:
Rumours are May won't appeal - if she does, and loses in the Supreme Court, then there would be almost no time to draft legislation in time for her self-imposed deadline. Personally, I think that's the cover story - I think the real reason is that the Northern Ireland, Welsh, and Scottish governments have all expressed interest in being claimants if the case is taken to the Supreme Court, and May is aware of just how absolutely, totally, and horrifically awful that would look for the Union.
 

Lagamorph

Member
If triggering Article 50 goes to a parliamentary vote could May not just invoke the Whip to force Conservative MPs to vote in favour, which means it would pass given the Conservative majority?
 

Jezbollah

Member
So the ruling is basically saying that Parliament must vote on triggering Article 50?

Yes, it means a Parliamentary Act must be required to trigger Article 50 (and readings through the Commons and Lords) and it, right now, cannot be triggered due to Royal Prerogative.

Incidentally, when the Maastricht Treaty was passed, Royal Prerogative was allowed. Funny times.

If triggering Article 50 goes to a parliamentary vote could May not just invoke the Whip to force Conservative MPs to vote in favour, which means it would pass given the Conservative majority?

Her majority is wafer thin, but there are a few Tory Remainers who might vote against the Whip. But there are also a TON (60%) of Labour MPs who represent Constituencies who voted Leave - so if they vote against their Constituency they will face quite a few issues at home..
 
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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
So does this mean we'll see that (easily winnable for the Tories) general election after all?

It depends. If things start going tits up between now and the legislation happening, such that there's a swing in popular sentiment on Brexit, and May doesn't think she might win such a vote in Parliament, then maybe. As it currently stands, this would pass Parliament easily because even most Labour MPs come from Leave seats, so she has no reason to call such a general election.

It all depends on how you think the next four months or so will play out politically.

It is interesting note, though, that there was an immediate surge in the pound after the declaration - investors think that at the least Hard Brexit is less likely and at the most Brexit of any sort is less likely.
 

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
It depends. If things start going tits up between now and the legislation happening, such that there's a swing in popular sentiment on Brexit, and May doesn't think she might win such a vote in Parliament, then maybe. As it currently stands, this would pass Parliament easily because even most Labour MPs come from Leave seats, so she has no reason to call such a general election.

It all depends on how you think the next four months or so will play out politically.

It is interesting note, though, that there was an immediate surge in the pound after the declaration - investors think that at the least Hard Brexit is less likely and at the most Brexit of any sort is less likely.

Would an abstain vote work to save face for those who are against Brexit but from Leave seats?
 
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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Would an abstain vote work to save face for those who are against Brexit but from Leave seats?

No. Everyone hates people who Abstain on contentious issues - Remainers will hate them for not voting No and Leavers will hate them for not voting Yes. You may as well just resign rather than pussyfoot around like that.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Would a vote to leave need to pass the House of Lords as well?

Yes. It would need to be an Act of Parliament, so a single unified bill agreed upon by both the Commons and the Lords (and with the consent of the Queen, but...).
 
Would a vote to leave need to pass the House of Lords as well?

Not a vote to leave per se but a vote on triggering article 50 will need to pass the lords if this ruling stands, yes. I'd imagine the lords will be more of a nightmare for the govt on this than the commons, they don't have a majority.
 

Lagamorph

Member
Yes. It would need to be an Act of Parliament, so a single unified bill agreed upon by both the Commons and the Lords (and with the consent of the Queen, but...).

I'm not sure I could see it passing the Lords, they'd potentially see Brexit as a financial threat to themselves after all.
The House of Lords may now be our best hope...
 

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
No. Everyone hates people who Abstain on contentious issues - Remainers will hate them for not voting No and Leavers will hate them for not voting Yes. You may as well just resign rather than pussyfoot around like that.

Then it will most probably pass quite easily.
 
I think it's important to note here that Article 50 will almost definitely pass at some point, though maybe not to the original timescale. And it does give parliament some latitude to dictate terms to the govt but the UK leaving the EU is still almost by definitely going to happen.
 
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