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The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM

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mclem

Member
doesn't that vote completely fuck us over? The supreme court case is about requiring a commons vote before leaving - well it seems they just went and had one. Who'd have thought it'd be such a relatively one-sided vote?

It's about requiring a commons vote on the detail, as I understand it - which isn't established yet. Plus it's about the question about whether that needs to be established *before* invoking Article 50 or not (since one aspect that isn't being focussed on at the moment is whether once you *do* invoke Article 50, you can then cancel that).

There's a fun possibility that they might have to refer to a higher court to determine whether Article 50 can be revoked: The EU Court. The irony is delightful.
 

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
doesn't that vote completely fuck us over? The supreme court case is about requiring a commons vote before leaving - well it seems they just went and had one. Who'd have thought it'd be such a relatively one-sided vote?

fuck.

The case before the Supreme Court is (largely) about whether an Act of Parliament is needed. That's all of Parliament, including the Lords and the Queen. A simple Commons vote has no legal significance.
 

mrklaw

MrArseFace
isn't article 50 itself fundamentally flawed though? It is purely to signal your intent to leave, and trigger the exit process, which has a 2 year (?) predicted timeline. But there is no discussion or negotiation with the EU until that process starts - so you can't accurately prejudge the likelihood of negotiating your desired exit. And there is no 'undo' button.

So once you start, you're out regardless, with no pre-negotiation which puts the leaver in a massively weak negotiating position relative to the rest of the EU.

ah fuck I shouldn't have come in here, I'm just depressing myself again.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
isn't article 50 itself fundamentally flawed though? It is purely to signal your intent to leave, and trigger the exit process, which has a 2 year (?) predicted timeline. But there is no discussion or negotiation with the EU until that process starts - so you can't accurately prejudge the likelihood of negotiating your desired exit. And there is no 'undo' button.

So once you start, you're out regardless, with no pre-negotiation which puts the leaver in a massively weak negotiating position relative to the rest of the EU.

ah fuck I shouldn't have come in here, I'm just depressing myself again.

I mean, that is how it works, yes, but it's not really flawed - from the perspective of the EU it works great.
 

Paulie_C

Neo Member
isn't article 50 itself fundamentally flawed though? It is purely to signal your intent to leave, and trigger the exit process, which has a 2 year (?) predicted timeline. But there is no discussion or negotiation with the EU until that process starts - so you can't accurately prejudge the likelihood of negotiating your desired exit. And there is no 'undo' button.

So once you start, you're out regardless, with no pre-negotiation which puts the leaver in a massively weak negotiating position relative to the rest of the EU.

ah fuck I shouldn't have come in here, I'm just depressing myself again.

The negotiations are about future trade deals with the EU after the exit. Ultimately in 2 years if negotiations aren't complete, it'll mean no trade with the UK and EU and UK don't have to follow EU laws. Which some leave voters want.
 

Jackpot

Banned
You know it's no wonder half the country believes immigrants are the biggest issue of our times with shit like this:

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...-torrington-unleashed-its-anger-a7463946.html

A Devon village has unleashed its anger toward the recent 70 Syrian arrivals by donating £600 worth of jumpers to them

So it’s lucky the Daily Mail was able to report, “Fury as refugees are settled in Devon”, and another paper told us the refugees “faced anger” from the community.

Because when the mayor, local theatre and hundreds of residents organised the collections, and arranged meetings to welcome the refugees, you could at first sight see this as motivated slightly by kindness. But these newspapers weren’t fooled, and understand it’s tradition in North Devon to express your anger by buying a room full of clothes and arranging them in a hall.

Five national newspapers told the story of this rage against the refugees, all quoting one man who said: “We’re receiving 50 to 70 refugees, and 50 to 70 is a huge number in an area with restricted public transport.”

But it gets worse, because every newspaper covering the story told how refugee children “annoyed locals” by “relaxing playing basketball on a basketball court”. That’s just taking the piss, isn’t it? How dare children play sports in an area specially designated for that specific sport?

The press kindly illustrated their complaint by showing a series of photographs of the refugee children, playing basketball, taken with a long-range lens from the bushes. This was a brave assignment, because children playing basketball on a basketball court can be fearsome if they know they’re being watched. Such courage certainly puts these wimps who take close-ups of crocodiles in their place.

The story went on to tell us the refugees have been placed in North Devon “as police fired tear gas into crowds of migrants in Calais.” This shows the risk to North Devon, because the fact that other refugees were being tear-gassed in another country proves refugees all get tear-gassed, as it’s their hobby.

So it’s understandable if this annoys newspapers who campaign against immigration. All their hard work in stirring up animosity is undermined by a group of Syrian children arriving in North Devon, and spoiling everything by making people feel humane and generous.
 

chadskin

Member
David Davis, Britain’s Brexit secretary, said he was “not really interested” in a transitional deal to cushion Britain from the effects of Brexit and that he would consider one only in order to “be kind” to the EU.
One senior EU official involved in Brexit preparations expressed astonishment at the idea that it would be the EU playing the role of demandeur on transition, calling it “deluded”. “There is a denial of reality in London,” the official said. Another EU representative who met Mr Davis said: “I’m fed up with British politicians . . . they have no clue.”
https://www.ft.com/content/d0ab9142-bd69-11e6-8b45-b8b81dd5d080
 

Funky Papa

FUNK-Y-PPA-4
The thing that I find bewildering is that the UK is famed in the international scene for having some excellent diplomats and negotiators.

I can't even imagine what the hell is going on, other than maybe May's cabinet alienating anybody who dares to oppose the official "strategy". It looks like there's a severe intellectual deficit where there should be none.
 

mclem

Member
I've been following an excellent series of writeups on the court case from a friend of a friend here (links to subsequent parts at the top of the post). They do a great job of breaking things down in a reasonably understandable way. Loosely speaking Part 1's an introduction, part 2's a little more detail, Part 3 is the first few days (mostly the case for the Government, a little opposition), and part 4 is mostly the opposition case plus the government's rebuttal.
 

nekkid

It doesn't matter who we are, what matters is our plan.
Good news, everyone. Our doctors' surgery expansion was opened this year by Andrea Leadsom - there's a plaque and everything. Glad I wasn't going in to have my blood pressure measured...
 
The thing that I find bewildering is that the UK is famed in the international scene for having some excellent diplomats and negotiators.

I can't even imagine what the hell is going on, other than maybe May's cabinet alienating anybody who dares to oppose the official "strategy". It looks like there's a severe intellectual deficit where there should be none.

They're having to argue a flawed position
 

Maledict

Member
The thing that I find bewildering is that the UK is famed in the international scene for having some excellent diplomats and negotiators.

I can't even imagine what the hell is going on, other than maybe May's cabinet alienating anybody who dares to oppose the official "strategy". It looks like there's a severe intellectual deficit where there should be none.

Yep - we have the second largest diplomatic service in the world after America last time I checked. If you speak to any of them they are in utter despair right now.
 
Maybe the Brexit secretary is a true believer, but even if it was otherwise, what can he say if one takes into account the expectations of Brexit delivering all the wanted parts of the EU while removing the rest? A government official going "LOL, it's never going to go as it was sold to the voters" is probably not a realistic expectation...
 

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
Maybe the Brexit secretary is a true believer, but even if it was otherwise, what can he say if one takes into account the expectations of Brexit delivering all the wanted parts of the EU while removing the rest? A government official going "LOL, it's never going to go as it was sold to the voters" is probably not a realistic expectation...

I think everybody in Bruxelles understands that they can't go public and say it's going to be shit, but in private discussions with other diplomats people expect more professionalism and less propaganda.

But I guess the official position of UK is going to be now "we tried to respect the wish of the people and the mean EU didn't play fair as a revenge for us leaving, so see how thoughtful was for us to leave in the first place?
and please ignore anything else
 

Uzzy

Member
Astonishing how arrogant some of these people are concerning the EU.

They'll be up for a rude awakening when they realize it's either going to be the EU dictating whats in a deal or there will be no deal at all unless May found a trump card but i can't really see what it would be.

The only trump card I can think of would be the British Army of the Vistula. That is, commit sizeable military forces to the defence of Eastern Europe to get them onside. There's a whole host of problems with that idea though, so I don't think it'd get anywhere. Besides, mixing NATO treaty arrangements in with the EU would be a bit awkward.
 

Maledict

Member
I think everybody in Bruxelles understands that they can't go public and say it's going to be shit, but in private discussions with other diplomats people expect more professionalism and less propaganda.

But I guess the official position of UK is going to be now "we tried to respect the wish of the people and the mean EU didn't play fair as a revenge for us leaving, so see how thoughtful was for us to leave in the first place?
and please ignore anything else

I know several people in the European ambassadors office, and they have spent the last 6 months apologising for and cleaning up after the government. They get a lot of sympathy from their EU colleagues.
 

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
The only trump card I can think of would be the British Army of the Vistula. That is, commit sizeable military forces to the defence of Eastern Europe to get them onside. There's a whole host of problems with that idea though, so I don't think it'd get anywhere. Besides, mixing NATO treaty arrangements in with the EU would be a bit awkward.

The issue with this is that Trump has proven that future military commitment don't hold as much value anymore.
 
Exclusive: Banks want to be subject to EU laws for five years in post-Brexit deal

Large banks in Britain want the UK government to allow their industry to remain subject to EU laws for up to five years after Brexit, a move likely to enrage eurosceptics who want to break away from the bloc's legal system as soon as possible. The banks - international players - are also pressing the government to allow the European Court of Justice to rule on decisions related to their businesses during that period, according to a document reviewed by Reuters.

The document was drawn up by law firms on behalf of banks lobbying the government for a departure in stages from the EU. It has the support of major banks, has been shared with the Treasury and is the most detailed request yet by Britain's financial industry for a transitional period to give it longer to adapt to Brexit, bankers said.

The Treasury declined to comment on the document.

"The report has been received as a fairly serious piece of work. It focuses on the legal underpinning of a transitional arrangement," according to one banker at a large international firm. "It's a heavyweight legal piece of work."The British government is currently divided on whether to support demands for transitional arrangements - and if so, in what form - reflecting diverging views about the best way to leave the EU and concerns about a backlash from those who campaigned and voted for Brexit.

While some Treasury officials are backing the move, the Brexit minister David Davis and Prime Minister Theresa May are yet to commit publicly to supporting any deal.

The Treasury said in a statement finance minister Philip Hammond is closely listening to the financial sector's views.

The Department for Exiting the European Union referred Reuters to the Treasury for comment.

The document warns of the potential shock to the British and European economy from a loss of critical financial services if banks do not secure a transition phase beyond the two-year withdrawal period that will begin when the government invokes Article 50 of the EU's Lisbon Treaty.

If no transition deal is agreed, there is a risk that some banks may not be able to move parts of their operations out of Britain or set up new British subsidiaries in time, the document says, running the risk that the banks may have to halt their EU business activities abruptly.

It would normally take banks as long as three years to relocate operations, according to the document, but due to the large number of firms seeking to do this simultaneously regulators may be flooded with requests, slowing down the process.

"Transitional arrangements are likely essential," the document says. "This is important in order to avoid potential damage to the "real economy" that is reliant upon uninterrupted access to financial services."

The demands for special treatment for an industry scorned by Britons since the financial crisis may put it on a collision course with swaths of the public and politicians who voted for Brexit because they wanted Britain to regain control of its law.

...
 

Auctopus

Member
I guarantee May will perform the ultimate bitch move and not allow these EU passport things under a claim like it "would divide the nation".
 
That won't be popular if they allow it, even though it makes sense given the circumstances we're up against. The idea of banks in one's own country being subject to foreign laws - however much they'd resemble our own - rather than domestic ones, especially after becoming 'independent', is not a palatable one on the face of it.
 

jelly

Member
More than half of over 50s voted for Brexit, and similarly more than half of under 50s voted to remain

Thanks dead people and regretters.

https://www.indy100.com/article/brexit-leave-remain-voters-120000-dead-result-7463341

The calculations show that the number of deceased Leave voters has not been replaced by new members of the franchise (citizens who have turned 18 since June).

In addition this, Lawrence included the million Brits living overseas who were excluded from the referendum vote but who are now legally included as voters.

However

Although turnout among 18-24 year olds was almost twice as high as usual (64 per cent), a study by Opinium found that they were outdone by the 90 per cent of over 65s who voted
 

Lagamorph

Member
More than half of over 50s voted for Brexit, and similarly more than half of under 50s voted to remain

Thanks dead people and regretters.

https://www.indy100.com/article/brexit-leave-remain-voters-120000-dead-result-7463341

The calculations show that the number of deceased Leave voters has not been replaced by new members of the franchise (citizens who have turned 18 since June).

In addition this, Lawrence included the million Brits living overseas who were excluded from the referendum vote but who are now legally included as voters.

However

Although turnout among 18-24 year olds was almost twice as high as usual (64 per cent), a study by Opinium found that they were outdone by the 90 per cent of over 65s who voted
Given how close the result was those 18-24 year olds who didn't bother really could have made the difference.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
The thing that I find bewildering is that the UK is famed in the international scene for having some excellent diplomats and negotiators.

I can't even imagine what the hell is going on, other than maybe May's cabinet alienating anybody who dares to oppose the official "strategy". It looks like there's a severe intellectual deficit where there should be none.

If you're an excellent diplomat or negotiator, you don't want to go anywhere near this mess. I mean, would you want "orchestrated Britain's collapse to WTO terms" on your CV?
 
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...ief-negotiator-opt-in-passports-a7465271.html

EU negotiators will offer British people the chance to individually opt-in and remain EU citizens as a proposal in Brexit negotiations, the European Parliament’s chief negotiator has confirmed.

The plan, first revealed in its early stages by The Independent last month, was being considered as a long-term aim by the European Parliament – but has now been fast-tracked to the negotiating table by Guy Verhofstadt, who is in charge of thrashing out a post-Brexit deal.

Mr Verhofstadt said the “very important” proposal had “captured the imagination and hopes” of many British people who wished to retain their rights as EU citizens and would be in his negotiating mandate.

Guy Verhofstadt is the hero we need. He is including this idea as part of the negotiations.
 

Zaph

Member
I appreciate the gesture, but it being part of Brexit negotiations is really a way to cause a lot of argument and division. It's a smart strategy.

But I'm not going to hold my breath, and instead just thankful I qualify for an Irish passport.
 

Paulie_C

Neo Member
They'll have to allow it in NI under the terms of the Good Friday Agreement - Citizens can claim Irish and British citizenship. If that was taken away, there'd be trouble.
 

daviyoung

Banned
How will that work? We're not EU citizens, we're British citizens and that makes us EU citizens. There doesn't seem to be any other way into EU citizenship unless they create one just for us.

This seems like pipedream EUland talk and I have no idea how it would work practically
 

Purkake4

Banned
How will that work? We're not EU citizens, we're British citizens and that makes us EU citizens. There doesn't seem to be any other way into EU citizenship unless they create one just for us.

This seems like pipedream EUland talk and I have no idea how it would work practically
I mean you can probably pass a regulation that allows British Citizens who sign up before date X to keep the benefits equal to "EU Citizenship". It'll cost the EU taxpayers a pretty penny though.
 
This will never get through all EU countries. It's not gonna happen.

No one would want to give citizens of a non-EU country such benefits. Even paying for it wouldn't work because such a deal would lack the most important part and getting access to that market of that non-EU country.
 

Jackpot

Banned
Nigel "anti-establishment" Farage moaning about how poor he is compared to his banker chums.

[Paywall]
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...lusive-interview-special-relationship-donald/

Cribbing quotes from around the net:

“Half my colleagues, my old contemporaries in the City, are now worth real money,” he said.

“I had lunch with a friend on Sunday, he’s worth 60 (million). Some of my very clever friends are worth 300 or 400. I have no regrets about being poor.”

Asked why he felt poor, Mr Farage said: “I don’t drive smart cars, I don’t go on fancy holidays. All my money has gone on my kids’ education.”

The EU pays him £85,000 a year.

On UKIP members:

“I am not having to deal with low-grade people every day. I am not responsible for what our branch secretary in Lower Slaughter said half-cut on Twitter last night – that isn’t my fault any more. I don’t have to go to eight-hour party executive meetings.

“I don’t have to spend my life dealing with people I would never have a drink with, who I would never employ and who use me as a vehicle for their own self-promotion. There are a lot of great people in Ukip. The problem is that Ukip has become a bit like the other parties: people view it as a means to get elected.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/09/nigel-farage-scathing-attack-ukip-low-grade-people

On Trump:

Farage said: "There were several things he said on the campaign trail I didn’t like. Dealing with protesters, the total ban on Muslims, the women thing, of course I don’t agree with that.

"I don’t agree with everything he says, but do I think he represents the right things for America and the West? Yes, and I never doubted that."

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...ar-taxpayer-funded-nigel-farage-a7466401.html

Has abominable views on women and minorities = represents the right things
 
If it means they get UK talent and industry moving over they certainly will.

Ther large pool of UK talent would be the foreigners from other EU countries. Especially the Eastern European EU members have nothing to gain from it, in fact they still remember that the UK blocked those countries from having the benifits of the EU citizenship for years.
 

Zaph

Member
Ther large pool of UK talent would be the foreigners from other EU countries. Especially the Eastern European EU members have nothing to gain from it, in fact they still remember that the UK blocked those countries from having the benifits of the EU citizenship for years.

I don't think it'll happen, but if it were to be tabled to other EU member states, I imagine a selling point would be the ability to poach more of London's industry if it's easier to relocate staff. No matter how multicultural it appears, the majority of city talent is British.
 

nekkid

It doesn't matter who we are, what matters is our plan.
I mean you can probably pass a regulation that allows British Citizens who sign up before date X to keep the benefits equal to "EU Citizenship". It'll cost the EU taxpayers a pretty penny though.

That's going to get messy. Say you sign up to it before the cutoff, then you have kids later. Is there then a dispensation for offspring applying, or do you have a family with split benefits - kind of "tough shit"?

My wife and I have two kids and of course we would like to sign us all up if the option was there. What if we had a third? Does that one just get left out in the cold? That's actually enough for me to consider not doing it.
 
That's going to get messy. Say you sign up to it before the cutoff, then you have kids later. Is there then a dispensation for offspring applying, or do you have a family with split benefits - kind of "tough shit"?

My wife and I have two kids and of course we would like to sign us all up if the option was there. What if we had a third? Does that one just get left out in the cold? That's actually enough for me to consider not doing it.

I'd imagine it would be contingent on that unborn child's immediate family living in an EU country. After X years (depends on country) they could then claim full citizenship, but the EU are really doing this to take advantage of the exodus of intellectuals and skilled workers. If the family has no intention to move but just wants easy holidays, then why keep providing the benefits?
 

nekkid

It doesn't matter who we are, what matters is our plan.
I'd imagine it would be contingent on that unborn child's immediate family living in an EU country. After X years (depends on country) they could then claim full citizenship, but the EU are really doing this to take advantage of the exodus of intellectuals and skilled workers. If the family has no intention to move but just wants easy holidays, then why keep providing the benefits?

Yes, you're absolutely right. Well done to the EU, I guess, for making it easy to recruit British talent and yet selling it to the UK as a benefit to be negotiated for.
 

sammex

Member
Another legal case being lined up, possibly.

Lawyers seek new legal challenge to Article 50 in Irish courts

Essentially asking the European Court Of Justice (via the Irish High Court) for a definitive answer on whether:

1. Article 50 trigger can be revoked unilaterally at a later date (May says no, others (including the lawyer who wrote it) say yes)

2. Leaving through article 50 pulls us out of the EEA as well as the EU (May says yes, others say no, article 127 of the EEA act needs to be activated, something the referendum gives no mandate for)

3. Article 50 was in fact triggered in October, when May told the EU Council that Britain would leave the union.
 

TeddyBoy

Member
Another legal case being lined up, possibly.

Lawyers seek new legal challenge to Article 50 in Irish courts

Essentially asking the European Court Of Justice (via the Irish High Court) for a definitive answer on whether:

1. Article 50 trigger can be revoked unilaterally at a later date (May says no, others (including the lawyer who wrote it) say yes)

2. Leaving through article 50 pulls us out of the EEA as well as the EU (May says yes, others say no, article 127 of the EEA act needs to be activated, something the referendum gives no mandate for)

3. Article 50 was in fact triggered in October, when May told the EU Council that Britain would leave the union.

Number 3 on that list would make the "BREXIT TODAY" crowd very happy.
 
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