anonymous_abc
Member
Problem is, the referendum was only advisory...
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The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM
- Thread starter Hasney
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Problem is, the referendum was only advisory...
Boris was a big Europe fan until February. Sure he won't mind flip flopping again
Elaugaufein
Member
Frankly let them be lynched. I would love a rebound leader willing to instantly fall on their sword by doing something to actively stop this. Would actually give me a tiny smidge of respect for that party. But probably what we'll get is political infighting and back room deals.
At minimum I think calling an election would be a start. Allows parties to run on a 'fuck the referendudm' ticket if they want.
Talk to the voters about why they really voted leave. If it was a protest look at the underlying issues. Immigration is clearly one, but is there anything that can be done to reasonably tighten things up around requiring a job before movement of people? Separate the issue of internal EU migration and external - the Syria crisis will have focused attention on immigration again and maybe the two issues are being conflated in some minds.
Talk about how much bullshit the newspapers talk about the EU pulling the strings and Westminster having no control. About how Europe provides investment for poorer regions, protects their workers rights from being eroded, how some of our biggest manufacturing plants come from inward investment which relies on having access to the European market.
Get fucking Martin Lewis on to talk about it - people will probably listen to him more than politicians
People needed to be talked down from the ledge during the referendum campaign but they weren't - they were shouted at. "If you jump it'll fucking hurt you twat" rather than "it doesn't need to be like this, we can make it better"
You can't require a job before freedom of movement because it would hurt the ability to acquire jobs (who's going to hire someone in Poland to wait tables ? Its also not like you can start work in London tomorrow if you have family and a house in Belgium). It would effectively limit freedom of movement to self employement , contractors and medium to long term white collar jobs).
Alx
Member
Corsica has no chance of becoming independent, it's a completely different story from Scotland or Cataluña since it has no major industry, it can only live from tourism and some minor agriculture.
Funny thing is, there is a higher ratio of French people favorable to their independance than Corsicans : 30% in France vs 10% in Corsica. And I guess the former just want it so they stop being a pain in the ass.
*edit - beaten.
Indeed, but it's a far cry from claiming independence. The Corsicans are still very insular and proud to be in charge of themselves, but they know they can't survive on their own.
I agree, but at the same time he seems to be running scared right now. The slow leaking out of info to the voters such as "we never said we wouldn't have immigration" needs to intensify, let them know you lied but in a consistent manor. By September it might be less of a shock when you call a 2nd referendum / GE.
This I imagine is why the EU won't talk till we do it, cos it's a waste of time and they don't think any right minded govt will.
Thanks guys! Don't really care about gay life in general though, I just care about having very tolerant neighbours =P
Still, I would think France wouldn't want to set the precedent that Scotland can declare independence and remain in the EU at the same time. Probably even moreso as it sounds like Corsica couldn't survive entirely on it's own, whereas Scotland probably could go it alone until an expedited EU membership could be arranged
Don't read too much into this, the Assemblée de Corse has very little powers.
I always find it funny that people think that corsica wants indipendence that badly. Sardinia is in their same position but no one thinks that Italy would veto
Elaugaufein
Member
I imagine it's also because the 2 year limit on article 50 gives them a much stronger negotiating position since you don't get to take backsies if you don't like whatever deal they end up offering. I doubt they are particularly amused at the moment since Brexit is going to hurt the EU economy and power too. Especially after all the special concessions the UK has gotten over the years.
All of the current crop (except May) have said Immigration first then trade, so we need to hear what Theresa May says...
She will find it difficult not to say the same as back bench MP's will lynch her if she does not agree on immigration, especially as she was for the remain camp..
Even Crab said about immigration and he was also remain
Frankly let them be lynched. I would love a rebound leader willing to instantly fall on their sword by doing something to actively stop this. Would actually give me a tiny smidge of respect for that party. But probably what we'll get is political infighting and back room deals.
At minimum I think calling an election would be a start. Allows parties to run on a 'fuck the referendudm' ticket if they want.
Talk to the voters about why they really voted leave. If it was a protest look at the underlying issues. Immigration is clearly one, but is there anything that can be done to reasonably tighten things up around requiring a job before movement of people? Separate the issue of internal EU migration and external - the Syria crisis will have focused attention on immigration again and maybe the two issues are being conflated in some minds.
Talk about how much bullshit the newspapers talk about the EU pulling the strings and Westminster having no control. About how Europe provides investment for poorer regions, protects their workers rights from being eroded, how some of our biggest manufacturing plants come from inward investment which relies on having access to the European market.
Get fucking Martin Lewis on to talk about it - people will probably listen to him more than politicians
People needed to be talked down from the ledge during the referendum campaign but they weren't - they were shouted at. "If you jump it'll fucking hurt you twat" rather than "it doesn't need to be like this, we can make it better"
Whoever attempts that will just be accused of being an Elitist trying to hoodwink the public again. "We won our freedom and now you're lying to us to get us to give it away again."
Whoever attempts that will just be pushing more voters away to UKIP.
This is the age of anti-intellectualism. You won't win people back with reasoned arguments based on evidence.
Isn't France's position that they don't want Scotland in the EU while attached to the UK ? I don't see why we'd have a problem with it as long as Scotland's independent. I don't see how they'd be able to remain in the EU instead of re-applying though.
JonathanEx
Member
May has been pretty against immigration in her speeches in the past - often with dodgy facts or racist vans, but I'd be certain she's for reducing numbers.
The self delusion among the Brexiteers on here and elsewhere is truly frightening. We're seeing capital flight, businesses moving to other countries, billions wiped off the markets and currency devaluation. And still the Leavers insist everything is fine. Stunning!
Don't listen to the experts. Listen to the ones who agree with you.
May is ice-cold and calculating, which is something the UK will need moving forward, its just that, she terrifies me in ways I can't begin to comprehend. When I look at her I feel like I'm staring into the singularity of a black hole.
Speaking as someone who got caught in the hyperbole of apocalyptic economic predictions, even krugman of all people is skeptical of these. The real trade implications won't be known until article 50 is invoked and negotiation has commenced. The Leave is disastrous but it's not going to be apparent right away, even on a political scale.
Alx
Member
Well, Farage said it, so it must be true. ^^
Actually I sort of agree that we shouldn't focus on short-term indicators like the stock exchange (what falls quickly can also rise quickly), and avoid any unnecessary panic, which doesn't help at all.
But the concern is real, and discussions should focus on very real and strategic elements : companies, banks, investments, and of course jobs, grants, rights and protections.
This 'The FTSE is fine today!!!' brigade are fucking hillarious.
Day Article 50 is invoked if it gets to that - day City of London knows its financial hub is destroyed. Market is going to jump off a cliff.
I would pay all the monies to be a fly on the wall of the trading meetings currently. I work for a big global financial organisation but am not London based. I may be fine since I work for tech infrastructure but our Financial ops in London? Forget it. Whatever deal is struck is irrelevant. Once Article 50 is pressed, its going to hell in a handcart time
Day Article 50 is invoked if it gets to that - day City of London knows its financial hub is destroyed. Market is going to jump off a cliff.
I would pay all the monies to be a fly on the wall of the trading meetings currently. I work for a big global financial organisation but am not London based. I may be fine since I work for tech infrastructure but our Financial ops in London? Forget it. Whatever deal is struck is irrelevant. Once Article 50 is pressed, its going to hell in a handcart time
accel
Member
I agree with this wholeheartedly (I am pro-Leave).
Less panic, more strategic thinking and more action.
Case in point.
Even though I completely understand where the sentiment is coming from, this lacks the most important thing - numbers. What exactly does "jumping off a cliff" mean? Banks go bankrupt? Banks lose 30% of their business? 10%? What about other opportunities for banks which open once we get out of EU? Are there any? (There surely are plenty in trade, for example, perhaps there are some for banks as well.)
Again, I completely understand the shock. It's understandable, it's only been a couple of days since the bomb dropped. But at some point the country has to deal with this for real. And for that, we need numbers and analysis.
blazinglord
Member
Interesting article in the Guardian today about their views. Link.
I've said it before, and I'll say it again. Boris would be better than May. I think a lot of people don't realise that May is very right-wing. For example -
Boris:
May:
Elaugaufein
Member
I'm not even on the same continent and I've heard about May's positions on things like privacy rights and innocent until proven guilty. She's as Authoritarian as all get out.
I mean, there has been a bunch of analysis on this stuff from a bunch of economists. Basically it says Britain will lose 4% GDP growth and go into recession. I'm not really sure what else you want, planning-wise.
I think as a country you're really better off in denial.
anonymous_abc
Member
I'm still waiting on a leaver telling me who they are so eager to trade with, who they cannot already trade with under the umbrella of the EU?
accel
Member
Any details?
It's a question of terms. The EU don't have a free trade agreement with many countries the UK would like to have - Canada, China, India. The agreement with Canada, for example, was being blocked all the time - last I remember it was Romania who wanted visas.
I mean the day Article 50 comes in, every single major Europe financial head will start having their polite inquiry calls heard by the London and (more importantly) the global heads regarding prospective relocation.
The markets are holding currently in this limbo period, hence the last few days. Article 50 is the point of no return. Major change at that point is inevitable, and markets reaction to change is invariably fear. Any trade deal sought by the UK is putting the current regulatory setup with the banks to the firing squad, to the which the EU is looking to pick the flesh off the bones.
Since I have no actual statistics I cannot measure the extent of the drop off, but this is not project fear on my part - once the button is pressed, all bets are off.
jimbobsmells
Member
Yup, same lot that are happy that 'we're out' now. It hasn't happened yet, this is the calm before the storm. (If you can call it calm).
accel
Member
Sure, I understand. I completely agree that this is not project fear, this is a legitimate issue. I am just saying that to assess the seriousness of this issue we need numbers and the sooner the media will start talking numbers instead of generic things like "it's going to fall hard", the better.
shinra-bansho
Member
Trade deals the UK would like to have are not necessarily the same as what anyone else is going to prioritise. And as the other person noted I still don't even know what you think the UK is going to export in massively increased quantities as a result of reduced tariffs. British beef. In exchange for the loss of a £15 billion trade surplus in financial services with the EU.
jakonovski
Member
I refer you to the map below, that's all stuff you need to renegotiate. Also, regarding China and potentially India too, do you realise that they don't just give out trade agreements. China will probably want over a decade of one sided free access to UK markets as the price for a trade deal. Because the UK is not a power player like the EU.
Waste of money but leaves a gaping hole in our future energy security strategy...we need to come up with alternative infrastructure plans and put them into action.
Unfortunately we now have no Government, so we are just circling the runway...which also now won't be built.
Every time I hear someone say they are pro-leave, everything they say becomes tinged with delusion and a lack of insight.
Don't you get it, its not just about the economy, trillions wiped off the global market and over 900 billion wiped off the national pensions, that's our retirement, all of us, yours and mine.
Once Article 50 is triggered, every law passed since 1972 becomes a dead fish and needs to be re-evaluated under new parliamentary over-sight. The Leave vote has broken the country and the worst part, leavers won't get ANYTHING they've been promised, so it all this chaos was for nought.
The problem is there are numbers; analysts are slashing growth forecasts, but they are all beat guesses. The only consensus is "shit gon' get real" so that's all that can reasonably be discussed.
As shit his the fan you will get actual figures but GDP figures are reported on a massive lag so as someone above said you won't know you are in a recession until you are WELL into it.
accel
Member
The trillions that you say have been wiped off the global market are the difference in people's *expectations* on how the global economy will behave in the future. These *expectations* regarding the future have already partly recovered and will perhaps recover more - recovery is always slower than crashes.
I don't mean to say it's all roses, it isn't, we are in a crisis. But no, the sky is not falling.
Although, yes, I completely agree with you that going without a plan was damn careless. I blame the politics as much as you do for that.
Legit question - whats the point of exact numbers? The exact numbers in the media as to stuff like how much Wales receives in EU funding was out there pre-ref yet still the Welsh rejected the EU.
Its perverse insanity how much much of the public cannot comprehend figures until it comes to hitting their back pocket and services - which its going to by an incredible degree, for no visible detachment from Europe and no magical £350million a week to make it tangibly better
accel
Member
It's not that we couldn't export millions of tons of goods in the EU and now we'll be able to, it's that the existing trade can be more profitable. The numbers aren't insignificant.
jakonovski
Member
Here's what the Economist Intelligence Unit has to say about Brexit consequences:
https://twitter.com/AlexWhite1812/status/748194632295649280
https://twitter.com/AlexWhite1812/status/748194632295649280
anonymous_abc
Member
accel
Member
Nobody is saying trade deals can be done in a week or even in the two years the UK has prior to exiting the EU (although some perhaps can be done, ie, those that are done already and were just being blocked). It's a slow progress. But it's a progress that was hard to have while staying within the EU.
I agree "aren't insignificant" is generic. If I had the numbers at hand, I'd have posted them, until then it can't be used in analysis, yes.
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
Well, one obstacle less for Scotland, I guess.
Anyway, Rajoy is going to be a real asshole to them because Rajoy gonna Rajoy. There's no possible debate about this, even if there would be no true precedent due to the UK becoming a non-union member after Brexit.
Of course, Brexit, Scotland's potential declaration of independence and the negotiation of its adhesion to the UE is going to take several years and Rajoy will probably be out of the political map then.
His point 14 - is he referring to Article 50 being triggered, THEN it going to Second Ref to approve the deal??
If so, what happens if UK public shoot down the deal??
That's as much on you then as it is the politicians. You knew there was no plan. I don't see how any potential benefits you believed would come from Brexit would outweighed the immediate and severely damaging consequences of it. It's maddening to see Leave voters take no ownership of their choice. The evidence was there, the data was there. Economists, politicians, world leaders, academics ALL gave the same grave warnings, whilst the Leave campaign gave no detail of substance.
In other news, Gove has announced he's standing. Oh boy.
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
The best deals.
So apparently Gove backstabbed Johnson and is running himself
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics...ng&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central
UK politics has more backstabbing than GoT
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics...ng&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central
UK politics has more backstabbing than GoT
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