-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
The UK votes to leave the European Union
- Thread starter Spring Drive
- Start date
- Status
With lower leverage and at the back of the line, needing to start from scratch. Trade deals take years to negotiate.
In the past 10 years, the US has only concluded 5 free trade deals. In the 8 years of the Obama administration, there have only been 3 free trade deals concluded.
Don't tout the Iceland-China FTA as a positive--there was not much there that benefited Iceland.
http://www.markoseafoodintelligence.com/is-the-iceland-china-fta-producing-the-desired-results/
Yes because they know they can take advantage of our current shithouse situation and snag a great deal. Just like when a game dev studio is looking shaky, no publisher will come along to rescue it until its fallen in the toilet and you can pick up the IP at a knockdown price.
Sodding_Gamer
Member
My government is an absolute disgrace. What a twat.
And why not? There is a system for non-EU countries, it just happens to be a worse deal than what you currently have. Literally why should the EU be making exceptions now to the county that has been so down on the Union all this time, is leaving, and wants to drag its feet while inflicting damage on everyone in the process? Because Britain is... great again?
What kind of leverage will the EU have against a country like the US when they have to make a new trade deal with them?
RedSparrows
Member
Why is it hysterics to not find the idea of leaving a position of strength re: trade agreements in favour of voluntarily weakening our economy in the rather vague and horrendously optimistic hope of better deals in future, sensible?
Sickboy007
Member
Chuka is pissed
ferrasvansen
Member
Doubt it, I reckon we can kiss good bye to passporting, why on earth would they allow London to carry on while they have Frankfurt and Paris ready to benefit, paspporting in my opinion is finished for UK banks.
shinra-bansho
Member
The UK will do all the best deals with all its amazing trade negotiators. They won two wars!
EdwardTeach
Member
78% of our GDP comes from services. If we lose the financial passport we are fucked. Everyone knows this, hence our bargaining position is terrible.
Sodding_Gamer
Member
Cameron is just repeating himself at this point.
ferrasvansen
Member
The sectors that the UK does well in are service heavy. They need trade deals with the world more than the world needs trade deals with the UK.
ftfy
There is no need, if you don't see the difference between a country that was never part of the EU, and one that was I just don't know what to say.
Also in regards to china http://shanghaiist.com/2016/06/24/china_brexit_response.php clearly things are looking up.
I dont remember ever seeing him campaigning during the referendum, so whats he mad about.
This is where I'm leaning. They've got to immediately acknowledge the referendum to avoid chaos, and then slowly let the reality sink it.
It's Blair's "Old house, new house", and people will come to terms with the reality they're swapping a lovely 4 bed town-house for a caravan with no roof.
brokenbeans
Banned
I'm actually enjoying this, football on soon though lol
Ragnar Blackmane
Member
I could see Gibraltar trying to go independent if Scottland manages to do so. Going Liechtenstein, even with all its massive disadvantages, would probably still be more favorable to economic survival than having closed and stonewalled borders to spain. If they ever get their own referendum I could see them voting out of the UK.
Heckler456
Banned
From where I'm sitting, there's no way that the EU takes the UK seriously ever again unless there is some big act of goodwill extended towards the EU from the UK side. I highly doubt they'll let them stay with the same exact exemptions in effect. Of course, that won't set well at all with like half of your country.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Don't even need to do a Liechtenstein, it could do a reverse Guernsey.
Spain already started looking to get their paws on gibraltar http://www.euronews.com/2016/06/24/spain-makes-new-push-for-gibraltar-after-britain-exits-eu/
phisheep
NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
This was mostly obvious, but an extra twist of the knife:
Logic only works if all the youngsters vote though.
They're trying to make it all too complicated, and I'm not sure they got it right.
The biggest trouble with their analysis is that the EU is not subject to the UK constitution, so that if an Art 50 notification were given by the Government and were then challenged, the EU are not going to stop the clock ticking while the case is heard, and probably won't listen to the judgment either.
That said, there's something familiar about the logic they are using - I think if I look hard enough I might find a counterexample. (*sound of riffling dusty pages*)
What's his deal anyway? He was a Labour leadership candidate for about ten minutes before he backed out and disappeared.
Audioboxer
Member
KarneeKarnay
Member
To me the worse outcome will be if nothing changes. I don't want a recession or anything, but right now half the population are convinced that leaving is the best option. I can safely say from a purely economical view point this will hurt the UK in the short term at the very least.
My biggest concern is that half the population are going to find out that they are
a) wrong about their choice.
or
b) nothing has changed.
That's a lot of voters who are going to be angry and upset. That's what concerns me. Maybe not this election, but the next one, people are going to be angry. It's not just us though. Across Europe Right Wing Extremists have had a resurgence. I am very afraid that idiots like Farage with no EU to point the nations problems at, will start pointing it at people in the nation. That's why it is some important right now to restore the stability of the Pound and crack down on anti-immigrant/racist crime. We need to cut the head off this before it gains traction.
My biggest concern is that half the population are going to find out that they are
a) wrong about their choice.
or
b) nothing has changed.
That's a lot of voters who are going to be angry and upset. That's what concerns me. Maybe not this election, but the next one, people are going to be angry. It's not just us though. Across Europe Right Wing Extremists have had a resurgence. I am very afraid that idiots like Farage with no EU to point the nations problems at, will start pointing it at people in the nation. That's why it is some important right now to restore the stability of the Pound and crack down on anti-immigrant/racist crime. We need to cut the head off this before it gains traction.
Alx
Member
I think there are low chances that in phase 4 EU would let you keep all your old terms though. But that would be a low cost for UK to pay to prevent a complete catastrophe.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
No. Why would they let us keep it? France knows if they veto that most of London's financial services move to Paris. What's our leverage?
I think this sums up the ridiculousness of it all pretty good.
Seriously, that must have been the dumbest political decision ever.
well as part of UK, Scotland is leaving EU, no buts about it
nature boy
Member
I would assume an EEA status for the UK would eliminate the financial "passport" for London, correct?
(Things get tricky when you go into the details).
(Things get tricky when you go into the details).
Chuka Umunna (Labour): "Does the Prime Minister think that precipitating a collapse in the value of Sterling, a fall in the value of our equities, the suspension of trading in our banks, equal to Britain taking back control"
Alx
Member
I think it's already officially stated that the passport can't be kept. There were already discussions about it because London wasn't in the Euro zone, and the conclusion was "as long as it's in the EU, it's fine". So if London isn't in the EU any more...
Dorsal Axe
Member
My guess is that in this event we'll get some meaningless concession that's entirely for show (to placate the Leavers), in exchange for one of our actual concessions, or the rebate. So a stealth punishment dressed up as a trade. Probably something that will appear to placate the masses.
There's no way Merkel or Hollande let the UK keep banking passports. Any agreement like this would bei vetoed. No matter the outcome UK will get a worse deal than it had now
Unless it is a flimsy deal with little trade benefits or overwhelmingly favors one side, I do not see how Britain could make deals in a timely manner. The US is the largest economy in the world with tons of leverage and it takes forever to conclude just 1 trade deal. In the 8 years of the Obama administration, there have only been 3 free trade deals concluded. And the majority of negotiations for all 3 deals happened under the Bush administration!
TheCrackInTime
Neo Member
Nigel Evans can fuck right off.
ferrasvansen
Member
Snarfington
Member
I feel the same, but I think it's more denial than anything else.
That was my thoughts, I just wasn't sure if the passport was something tied to the free single market or a specially crafted device for us. If you see what I mean.
BlastProcessing
Member
You are classifying a bug as a feature.
No veto applies for the trade deal that gets agreed upon by the EU for the purposes of triggering article 50. The exit deal is agreed upon by qualified majority voting.
IdreamofHIME
Member
Fuck him.
If he had any balls he would have been Labour leader and maybe the mess that's happening wouldn't have.
Absolute bottler.
ebullientprism
Member
Jesus. That last paragraph is absolutely brutal.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked