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The UK votes to leave the European Union

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Vagabundo

Member
Your bets are already wrong. People are literally posting in this thread about them being told to relocate. It has already happened, and will happen - London cannot be the centre for EU financial trading outside of Europe. Frankfurt will absolutely gobble that up, and the EU will ensure that happens.

Companies are *already* planning to move - this isn't a theoretical thing. It's happening.

Dublin is going to make a strong play for them as well.

You remember that scene in Jerry Mcguire? We need someone to do that as a GIF...
 

Nokterian

Member
Wow, did not see this coming. So, what next?

1 - Multinationals will backtrack for their threats to leave and announce their negotiations
2 - UK will manage to negotiate essentially equal deals directly
3 - Stock and property market will be turbulent for a while
4 - EU will be under even more pressure, federalisation is done for now
5 - In the end, both UK and world economy will be fine

Those are my bets.

Pretty much this.
 

Chinner

Banned
I think the problem is, while Corbyns personal position is understandable and probably the wisest, his half heartedness about the whole thing, when the stakes are so high was cavalier at best and negligent at worst.

He either didn't know what was at sake or more likely didn't care. That shows he is unfit to lead as he cares more about his idological positions more than he cares about his party, or the country at large.
I like Corbyn, however I think he will fail to connect with the Labour voters in the North who feel they have been left behind.
 

StayDead

Member
Already lost my job a few months ago due to 1.4 pound to euro and we could not export and survive. Not everybody is a trader in London.

Start again next week, hopefully pound stays reasonable and people in rest of England can now work in manufacturing.

The only way we can effectively manufacture anything in the UK anymore is through EU imports of goods.

We don't have the magical pile of resources we had during the Industrial Revolution, we have nothing to work with.
 
I have many friends in the London banking sector, and while they all were told before the referendum they'd definitely leave for Frankfurt and other locations, their tone is very different today. Today they are 'believing in London and exploring ways to stay'.

At least, the four big banks I know.
Your friends can say whatever they want, the banks haven't minced words about leaving if this passes. They lose pretty much all the reason to stay in UK. Maybe they don't have 0 people working there but this forces them to have to open a second office now in Europe unless they wish to completely leave Europe as a whole which I can't see.
 
Britain just shot themselves in the foot.

I don't know how much the rest of you know about European culture (I'm an expert), but honor and shame are huge parts of it. It's not like it is in America where you can become successful by being an asshole. If you screw someone over in Europe, you bring shame to yourself, and the only way to get rid of that shame is repentance.

What this means is the European community, after hearing about this, is not going to want to purchase British goods or have any type of trade agreement, nor will they allow Brits to travel and have huge piss ups abroad. This is HUGE. You can laugh all you want, but Britain has alienated an entire population with this move.

British people, publicly apologize and cancel the Brexit or you can kiss your international relevance goodbye

It works so well in context
 

kmag

Member
Just had the first personal fall out from the decision. An network infrastructure project for a London based investment bank has been put on hold indefinitely. They'd already put it back twice so it's not exactly a surprise.

From talking to the PM it looks like they and bunch of others in the city are retrenching on 'non essential' spend for a bit.

Still I'll get a bunch of work if they all up and decamp to Frankfurt although chances are I'll be on NZ or Houston by then
 

OCD Guy

Member
People's lives are being ruined and you're enjoying it? You need to take a moment for some self-reflection, I think.

Just shows the ignorance of many that voted.

No one really knew the implications the results of their vote would cause.

Either way it will take a while for it to really hit home, and maybe when it hits certain people they won't be so smug.

Short term it's fine to celebrate but the long term effects of this are unknown....

And even if it doesn't effect someone directly, I'm not sure what satisifaction people get out of other peoples misery.
 

El-Suave

Member
Perfect.

Also, this will work against Trump because it will illustrate the ramifications of choosing isolationism. As the world stumbles into a recession in the new few months, Hillary can associate Trump's fear-mongering with the Brexit.

As much as I wish it were, I think the US election is much too soon for consequences of the Brexit to have an impact. Too little will change until then, it might even reinforce lunatics like Trump in the short term.
 
CltS51EWgAArJt3


Cornwall voted 57-43 to leave
 

Hystzen

Member
I think the problem is, while Corbyns personal position is understandable and probably the wisest, his half heartedness about the whole thing, when the stakes are so high was cavalier at best and negligent at worst.

He either didn't know what was at sake or more likely didn't care. That shows he is unfit to lead as he cares more about his idological positions more than he cares about his party, or the country at large.

Well had the issue that he was meant to work with Cameron who could not even be arsed talking to him like a normal person. The joining of parties was half assed and bitter to help the Remain campaign. Kind hard look enthusiastic when you know Dave still not going back you up or help in a statement or debate.
 

twobear

sputum-flecked apoplexy
I agree, starting to settle down already after only a few hours.

http://www.chartoasis.com/forex/1/gbp_eur/5_years.html

Scotland will look at independence, oil price and Euro, and think again. They will be worse off, maybe more will move south. And I was born in Scotland.

Everybody always votes in their own interest. Funny that.

Scot independence = oil and money.
Short term turbulence is irrelevant to the longer economic outlook. Economists predicted a recession which, by definition, requires shrinking of GDP over two quarters. You can no more look at today's market recovery and say 'it's fine' than you can look at it and say 'oh no we're fucked'.
 

Maledict

Member
40% of the labour vote didn't know the party's position - a week ago. You don't campaign for something and then start every speech with a list of it's flaws. His tactic utterly failed, and his own base is pissed off with him.
 

Cromat

Member
I'm having what can only be described as a meltdown... and I don't even live in Britain!

How... what the fuck???

"We want to take back control!" = Recession, devaluation, secession of Scotland and Northern Ireland, unemployment, instability...
 

Ashes

Banned
Wow, did not see this coming. So, what next?

1 - Multinationals will backtrack for their threats to leave and announce their negotiations
2 - UK will manage to negotiate essentially equal deals directly
3 - Stock and property market will be turbulent for a while
4 - EU will be under even more pressure, federalisation is done for now
5 - In the end, both UK and world economy will be fine

Those are my bets.

Err... we're still in austerity measures from the last recession 8 years ago.

There are people who have to go to food banks.

Old people died in the winter due to energy costs.

People really are suffering from the last bank inflicted market volatility.
 

geordiemp

Member
Short term turbulence is irrelevant to the longer economic outlook. Economists predicted a recession which, by definition, requires shrinking of GDP over two quarters. You can no more look at today's market recovery and say 'it's fine' than you can look at it and say 'oh no we're fucked'.

Oh, I agree, nobody will know if the change is good, band or indifferent until maybe a year or more.

The fact is, the same could be said about a remain vote with the way EU is right now. Its called the future !

lol, thanks to Thatcher and your unions.

EU and Europe was like the only reason at least a little industry is still in the UK

No, we were fine until 2012 at 1.1, then pound started getting silly strong up to 1.5 to Euro over last 5 years that has killed allot of things in UK.

http://www.chartoasis.com/forex/1/gbp_eur/5_years.html
Unions, ask France about that lol.
 

Maledict

Member
Well had the issue that he was meant to work with Cameron who could not even be arsed talking to him like a normal person. The joining of parties was half assed and bitter to help the Remain campaign. Kind hard look enthusiastic when you know Dave still not going back you up or help in a statement or debate.

Um, no. That's literally the opposite of what happened. Labour made a deliberate and conscious decision to not campaign with Cameron and Remain - because they didn't want a repeat of what happened in Scotland. Cameron *wanted* labours backing - it was labour that decided to not play ball.
 

KooopaKid

Banned
Short term turbulence is irrelevant to the longer economic outlook. Economists predicted a recession which, by definition, requires shrinking of GDP over two quarters. You can no more look at today's market recovery and say 'it's fine' than you can look at it and say 'oh no we're fucked'.

Yet 90% of this thread is 'oh no we're fucked'.
 
But your currency won't be worth anything by the time it happens. :(
/s

I will bet Aussie dollars on it, they are going sideways so still good.
I am amazed at how little people outside banking understand just how much self interest there is inside banking. They look after themselves before anyone else gets a cut shareholders included and going to Frankfurt would only be a glacial project when no other options were left.
their kids are in top schools they just finished building out 7 levels below their Chelsea townhouse and they fucking love London and speaking English and the country in summer and their second wife would divorce them. They aren't going anywhere. Nothing is going to change UNLESS a raft of new deals the country makes are clearly inferior, and we won't know that until 2018. Then some might pick up hiring in their eu office and slow it down in London.
We are all going to get sick of discussing this because that's all there is: discussion recrimination and people falling on swords.
 

SomTervo

Member
Nope. She has no control over an independence referendum. She can hold one on her own but it holds no legal duty, and would not be recognised internationally - same as Catalonia.

As much as I want it to happen, this is the fact.

We have a 'mandate' whatever the fuck that means. It's not recognised in any sort of legislation and we already voted no like two years ago.

That said, the mandate is based on unprecedented national solidarity on this EU referendum and the recent local elections and MSP elections which were all staunchly against the UK-grain. So perhaps?
 

Ephidel

Member
It's been a few hours and my brain is still stuck on the incredibly literate thought of "fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck" :|

It's a minor saving grace that my area largely voted remain the same way I did, but I'm thoroughly miserable. It's made even worse by the fact my close family are all celebrating talking about making us great again and which repulsive figure they want in government because they believe the masks they've been wearing and the lies they've been spouting while I have to keep biting my tongue because it was joked in a not-entirely-joking way that any remain voters wouldn't be welcome in the house (and I can't afford to move out), so they don't actually know that was how I voted ¬_¬

I guess all I can do now is cross my fingers and hope for the best.
And hope that as we begin the process of replacing our government maybe we can patch it up into something slightly better than the rubbish we have at the moment.
... I just fear that the government we get as a result could be even more unpleasant based on all the hatred and fear they've whipped up that will presumably be the basis for the new one x_x
 

Par Score

Member
Corbyn had the most reasonable, realistic view of the EU going, and campaigned on that sensible position.

He's no fanatic, he accepts the pros and cons of the EU but felt on balance we we were better in.

The PLP will look for any excuse to oust him, but the members wont have it.
 

twobear

sputum-flecked apoplexy
Oh, I agree, nobody will know if the change is good, band or indifferent until maybe a year or more.

The fact is, the same could be said about a remain vote with the way EU is right now. Its called the future !
But that's not really true, is it, otherwise you wouldn't have 9 out of 10 economists in agreement that Brexit will be bad for the UK's future economic prospects.
 
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