do you believe China would be justified in invading Taiwan if they declared independence? I don't see why it should be up to the people of mainland China to decide the fate of Taiwan
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Trump risks major diplomatic dispute with China after speaking with Taiwan's prez
- Thread starter chadskin
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do you believe China would be justified in invading Taiwan if they declared independence? I don't see why it should be up to the people of mainland China to decide the fate of Taiwan
PdotMichael
Banned
So you want to destroy the progress through decades of dialogues? Just to show China who is the boss here?
Do that but don't claim you care about the Taiwanese people.
ultratruman
Banned
I don't think madman theory should be used in domestic policy, but it sure as hell can work in foreign policy. Khrushchev, like many dictators, bet on the tendency of the west to ignore conflict in the interest of 'stability'. He brought the world to the brink of war by trying to bring nuclear warheads to Cuba, and Kennedy took the problem seriously enough to diffuse a situation that would almost certainly have gotten a lot worse had he done nothing.
So are you admitting that you believe Taiwan is an independent nation or...? Because it really sounds up me like most of you do, but think we should act in a way that in my opinion is incompatible with our beliefs on international sovereignty
So just admit that. That when it's inconvenient to recognize an obviously independent nation, we shouldn't.
ultratruman
Banned
No, you don't understand. Mao always said China needs to care about owning as much land as possible. Like REALLY REALLY care. Get it?
How about not looking for simple answers in a complicated world? That is what fools do, and it inevitably leads them into trouble.
ultratruman
Banned
How about not perpetually obfuscating every question of real human dignity and suffering with moral relativism and phoney 'Realism'?
it's up for Taiwan to decide when the right time has come to seek true sovereignty. I just think it's unrealistic to believe that China will be content with keeping the status quo in the Taiwan question. It worked until now, sure, but they have shown no intention of letting them go, and they got a much stronger hand here in the long run while everyone is still afraid of waking the dragon
To turn that question on it's head: what if the one thing keeping Taiwan independent is the fact that it isn't recognised as such? Because that may very well be the case. Are you really going to put rethoric over reality in that situation?
I still think you don't actually grasp what 'face' is in Chinese culture. It's actually strong enough socially to be considered "power and influence". To China, the US sticking with the One China policy is considered a gesture of goodwill, and therefore the US keeping to this policy is giving the US power and influence when it comes to relations with China.
Moreover, you mistake that it's up to outside nations (aka the US, the rest of the world) to determine whether or not China should have the One China policy or not. The US recognizing Taiwan as an independent nation does not change either China's or Taiwan's positions on being the 'proper' China. The reason Chinese people want a Unified China has to do with their long, long history dating back to the Spring and Autumn Period where the people of the land spent hundreds of years fighting endless wars with each other. China's history means they can't be a Europe where the countries separated after the Roman Empire and learned to live with each other (Europe still had a shitton of wars, including the two worst in history). China's history means their people want to be One China, because the ideas of peace and prosperity are closely associated with times in history where 'China' was unified as one.
From a US perspective, the policy regarding Taiwan's status buys time. Yes, it is not adherent to the lofty ideals of democracy. But from the very beginning of US history when the Americans decided not to assist the revolutionists in France shortly after the American Revolution, we were not adhering to those ideals in the foreign theater anyway. The juggle between China and Taiwan is intended to give time for China to develop the government from an technocratic oligarchy, to develop the populace into a more educated, demanding oneto get time for the societal, cultural, political, and economic changes to take root to the point where China may eventually be more sensible about Taiwan.
Because of the lack of a credible higher authority, the international stage is not a place to play with principles and morals.
Its up to Taiwan to decide that. And they decided to call Trump.
Rebel Leader
THE POWER OF BUTTERSCOTCH BOTTOMS
That not what reliable sources are saying.
Unless that changed .
This call was started by trumps people.
In that case I guess the question is whether or not you want to fight their war of independence too, because they are absolutely not in a position where they're capable of doing it on their own. Taiwan is never going to declare independence unless they're completely convinced that the US will back them and go to war with China over it.
If that's true, he's really playing with fire here. Unintentionally signalling to Taiwan that the US is ready to back them and then backing out could lead to Taiwan getting turned into a smoking cratre.
I apologize for being hasty as I did not know you are from Taiwan.
You asked if I knew anything about Taiwan and I supplied where my reasoning comes from. You exclaimed I knew nothing about Taiwan which is untrue. While you are correct I was wrong in throwing out one true China, which I apologize to you for as I was rather angry when I wrote that and didn't check to see if Taiwan's stance had changed in modern times, the matter still remains that by being called The Republic of China they will still be recognized in some capacity as China. It's right there in the name. While again, you are right that Taiwan may not care that there will be two Chinas, you are also right that China does, and they are the one we have to worry about.
Also, as someone from Taiwan though I ask for your opinion. Do you think Trump and his cabinet has the tactical finesse to handle how China will respond to such actions by rocking the boat? I ask because I want to know from someone who would be most affected by such matters. As I noted earlier I do hope someday you guys become fully recognized as a separate nation, but I have severe doubts Trump and his admin are prepared to handle such a situation. But since you guys I suspect would handle the brunt of the fall out I would like to hear your thoughts. Do you want him to start to push?
Which is funny, because it is at odds with the stance of non-interventionism, or at least quid-pro-quo interventionism, seemingly one of his few policy viewpoints that doesn't slip and slide when asked about it.
Funny and extremely unnerving. The one thing that made me fear a Trump presidency from the beginning the most - even beyond his horrendous policies in general - is his pure, blatant incompetence. People on GAF like to bring up how we don't need to fear, say, a nuclear war, because no one has anything to gain by it. Which is true. The problem is, it's perfectly plausible that one could end up getting started over a mistake.
And Trump? He's the walking, talking, tweeting avatar of mistakes.
ultratruman
Banned
I fully understand the point about China's historical memory of unification is the reason for their desire to have control over the entire region, but I just don't agree that gives them the right to violate the sovereignty of nearby states. China also maintains territorial claims against India and Vietnam too, where exactly would 'One China' end?
Here's the reality: ethno-nationalism and appeals to historical tradition are the most over-used excuses for dictatorships asserting their control over neighbouring regions, the Russian government is doing the exact same thing right now in Ukraine. Why should we believe the Chinese government are unique in just being caught up in some romantic, benevolent dream of Chinese unity when historical precedence and their treatment of Tibet and Hong Kong clearly tell us otherwise?
I'd also like to say that you're wrong, the international stage is the most important place for the west to adhere to its values and demonstrate solidarity with democracies around the world. History is not a gradual arch towards freedom and prosperity, it belongs to those with the will to seize it. Modern democracy has always been exported (except maybe in the case of the UK) and without the force of French arms the United States would never have achieved independence. There is a higher authority, it's called human dignity and alleviating suffering.
Since the US has been focused on maintaining goodwill with China, China has done quite a lot that sullied that goodwill such as trying to take over the seas/shipping lanes and developing islands that will be naval bases. If goodwill is not reciprocated then what's the point of trying to maintain goodwill?
Calamari41
41 > 38
Honest question for the China/Taiwan relations experts in this thread.
Why would the new President of Taiwan make/take this call if it could result in such horrible consequences for the island?
Why would the new President of Taiwan make/take this call if it could result in such horrible consequences for the island?
Sirpopopop
Member
It's fairly simple here.
The risk/reward for accepting that phone call is out of wack. We already have a relationship with Taiwan. We also have a relationship with China. Accepting this phone call doesn't have any reward. It's not going to enhance our relationship with Taiwan, which is already great. It's going to rattle China, where our relationship isn't as hot.
Because it's an acceptable risk for them. If US-Chinese relations deteriorate, the odds of the US supporting Taiwan in a potential future war increases. Likewise, any trade war between the US and China benefits Taiwanese exports.
The reason Trump got played is that there's literally nothing to benefit the US in those scenarios.
My best guess is she's playing a game with China, and knew Trump, unlike more savvy politicians, would take the call.
Trump acknowledging them adds to their legitimacy on the world stage.
Simply acknowledging the existence of a country is a very, very important statement.
I don't know how high current tension levels are between Taiwan and China but surely they can't be so high that the risk of further escalating them is negligible compared to gaining some odds of US support in a war? On the other hand if there little risk of war then I don't see why Taiwan needs to seek out US support, which in turn increases that risk. I can see some justification on the trade front though. I would imagine Taiwan's path to complete recognition of its independence relies on institutional change within China and then the question is whether this is best achieved if China suffers from economic losses in a trade war causing a change in leadership/strategy or from economic prosperity which might breed values of liberalism (the risk here being that China remains as is ideologically but gains more power on the world stage).
No, that's not the reality for China.
You don't actually understand anything. What you are failing to do is approach this incident from a Chinese perspective. Instead you are imposing your foreign standards and notions on the country without considering its viewpoint. They don't care if their actions are justified or not in your eyes; they have their own interests. I am not offering a defense of China; I am offering an understanding. Your insistence on imposing your own values is exemplary of disrespect towards another nation simply because they do not follow your personal opinions to a tee. That's actually quite imperialistic.
If you were the US leader, would you choose to recognize Taiwan officially with the chance of China invading and occupying Taiwan by force? Thereby triggering a defense treaty that has the US going to war with China? How many lives are you willing to gamble with that China will do nothing? Twenty million lives of the Taiwanese? How many soldiers of the US military? What if they extend that aggression to other countries in the Pacific?
With regards to the international stage, you are wrong. There are no higher principles and morals because there is no single authority to enforce them. You can conduct yourself with your own ideology, but the reality is every country has its own interests and act on those interests. Short of conquering the whole world to impose your ideology, you are not going to be able to enforce your ideology 100%. That is reality. You're in idealistic dreamland. Because you simply cannot stand up in the international theater expect everyone to adhere to your values and morals. They'll laugh at you.
People make a giant shit about interventions in the Middle East, but turn around and say this crap about China because they are so sure of economic ties. It's incredibly naive.
andythinkpad
Member
She is in the pro independence party. Taiwan's two pro independence and pro status quote parties take turns to control the presidency every 8 year like a yoyo, it's worse than US politic.
What she wants is US promise more protection; what Trump wants is Taiwan (and Japan) pay up $$$ for US protection. Basically Trump is treating this like granting the contract to the contractor with the best offer.
Herr Schwarz
Banned
China nor anybody else is going to risk all out war or all out war via proxy. Judging from China's reacting statement, I don't think they are going to start arming up for an invasion over the gaffes of Trump.
Rebel Leader
THE POWER OF BUTTERSCOTCH BOTTOMS
This is only becausebof his "president elect" status
And one country did start arming over a remark a few decades ago. A president said a remark about the Soviet union and they didn't like it one bit
Herr Schwarz
Banned
I would of thought the language of their statement would be markedly more hostile if they were even close to thinking about dropping the elbow on Taiwan so to speak.
Trump's poor signalling skills due to his poor knowledge of various subject matters and political etiquette is going to be the cause of much uncertainty isn't it (as it had been expected)? As Obama said, Trump will come to realise a president's words carry much meaning and can serve as an effective tool. I hope he reaches this realisation quickly.
Of course not, but they will exploit his gaffes to further their own foreign policy goals, whenever possible.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
I highly doubt China wants to go to war, there's nothing to imply that is China's end goal, we're not talking about Russia here. China has one goal and one goal only, economic supremacy. They want to be the top ecomomic power, and wasting money on expensive wars hardly helps that. If Trump foolishly wants to enter a trade war they fight fire with fire and do everything possible to weaken the US economy.
Gideon Rachman, chief foreign affairs columnist for the Financial Times, shared this excerpt from his book Easternisation.
https://twitter.com/gideonrachman/status/805016504936894464
Gideon Rachman
‏@gideonrachman
This extract from my book Easternisation gives a flavour of why Trump's Taiwan phone call is so potentially dangerous
https://twitter.com/gideonrachman/status/805016504936894464
Gideon Rachman
‏@gideonrachman
This extract from my book Easternisation gives a flavour of why Trump's Taiwan phone call is so potentially dangerous
Massive Duck. C.M.
Banned
Gideon Rachman, chief foreign affairs columnist for the Financial Times, shared this excerpt from his book Easternisation.
https://twitter.com/gideonrachman/status/805016504936894464
Gideon Rachman
‏@gideonrachman
This extract from my book Easternisation gives a flavour of why Trump's Taiwan phone call is so potentially dangerous
That is not a reassuring passage.
shinra-bansho
Member
Taiwan acts as an independent sovereign nation.
China for the most part does not care provided that what they view as a renegade province is not legitimised formally.
The world generally accepts this compromise to both maintain a stable region and diplomatic relations with a global superpower.
Relations are for the most part pretty good.
Welcome to a complex world.
Chittagong
Gold Member
He's not that hard to read, come on now
1 - China has grown to be the main rival for USA
2 - Russia/Philippines/Taiwan are largely irrelevant to USA
3 - China and Russia/Philippines/Taiwan have conflicting interests
4 - Trump hangs with Russia/Philippines/Taiwan
1 - China has grown to be the main rival for USA
2 - Russia/Philippines/Taiwan are largely irrelevant to USA
3 - China and Russia/Philippines/Taiwan have conflicting interests
4 - Trump hangs with Russia/Philippines/Taiwan
This makes less sense now than before
bob_arctor
Tough_Smooth
Gideon Rachman, chief foreign affairs columnist for the Financial Times, shared this excerpt from his book Easternisation.
https://twitter.com/gideonrachman/status/805016504936894464
Gideon Rachman
‏@gideonrachman
This extract from my book Easternisation gives a flavour of why Trump's Taiwan phone call is so potentially dangerous
But Trump's just telling it like it is, bucking the establishment, giving China the finger, and/or leading the moral charge towards an independent Taiwan like the champion of human rights he is. How could he be wrong, really, when everything he does is wrong??
I'd throw in the rest of the world also needs China to help keep North Korea in check.
North Korea is no threat to anyone outside of South Korea, and peripherally, Japan.
Hierophant
Banned
i wonder if you can eat high horses and ideology if a crippling trade war were to ever occur
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
By everything I've read, Kennedy was the cool head in the situation who diffused the situation. If he had listened to Curtis LeMay, like Trump probably would, we'd have nuclear weapons being used. Something to think about, the President is usually the one that deliberates the issue the most because he realized the gravity of the situation, now Trump is the least likely person in the room to do so.
Freeza Under The Shower
Member
well, that's reassuring.
So ehm, that whole 'EC' business, is it too late to consider they might actually decide to go 'oh fuck' and just not elect Trump? 15 days left till the actual vote, if I recall.
i sometimes google news on "faithless electors" on the faint hope that the EC electors will do the right thing. pretty much not gonna happen though.
Atraveller
Banned
The days of Chiang's authoritarian rule are over, the idea that we are legitimate and PRC illegitimate gone with him & son. Having China in the name does confuse people, it's like reverse-Newspeak, we couldn't fully distance away from "China". The word is in KMT's name, on our passports, companies that used to be state-run...It's hard to explain to foreign people in conversations, and some people here have identity crisis. Now, 73% of the people here identify as Taiwanese instead of Chinese, compared to the 44% 20 years ago, I would say because of the lack of state propaganda, and KMT's ironic PRC friendly policies (Chiang is probably spinning in his grave).
I don't believe we'll get international recognition in Trump's term. He may be doing this for his hotel(s) and his supporters' hostility against China. But I don't think we'll get international recognition while swept under a rug. The phone call hurt China's precious feelings, but it brought Taiwan under global spotlight, people's awareness of our situation is raised. China is not going to start a war over a phone call, heck, they deescalated the situation themselves by calling it a trick (giving POTUS a way out). Someone pushing China's comfort zone is not a bad thing. The way I see it, Trump has just found a button he could continuously push to reliably gain support and the reactions he wanted, it's now up to his staff to keep him from pushing it too frequently or at all.
Dash_Riprock
Member
Get used to hearing something like this for the next four years.
Thanks for responding, as I appreciate your insight into the matter since you would know more about Taiwan's current political climate then I do.
While I agree your right that China wont go to war over a phone call, it still worries me about how much thought Trump put into the maneuver. I read that he was briefed on the situation before the call, but I'm not sure he understood the impact such an act would have. Trump's staff is also mostly made up of people who kiss up to him, so in that respect I'm not sure he will have the necessary people to push back on some of his more reckless tendencies later on once Obama moves out and can no longer cover for him.
We'll see shortly I suppose how things work out. If this move ends up working out for the better then I can't really complain. Honestly, I just want everyone to make it out OK in the end.
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