Trump is approaching from I can make out governance as business dealing . Will help in some parts will def harm foreign policy wise ... Countries even small ones don't operate as businesses ...business is all about the bottom line . International politics is way more complicated . This guy doesn't seem to grasp that as yet ... Hopefully Obama can knock some sense into him before he's done .or fucking even pence or ivanka at this point ...
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Trump risks major diplomatic dispute with China after speaking with Taiwan's prez
- Thread starter chadskin
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down 2 orth
Member
I can't believe I'm defending D. Trump, but here it goes:
Trump's done some stupid things during the election, but this isn't a dumb move. The current relationship that China has with America if simplified, would be like this: China reaps massive economic benefits from trade with the US, while some American companies (almost always large-sized ones) benefit from cheap Chinese manufacturing, and sometimes access to the Chinese market as well. The winners: China, and some US companies. The losers: everyone else in the US.
Trump doesn't (yet) have ties with a lot of the US companies operating in China, so it doesn't put him or the US in general in a bad position if he wants to renegotiate trade relations with China, and in the process get popularity at home from appearing to support domestic manufacturing. The only thing he did by receiving that phone call was gain leverage for negotiations. It's a good move, and I guarantee you China was planning to do something similar if they didn't already.
Trump's done some stupid things during the election, but this isn't a dumb move. The current relationship that China has with America if simplified, would be like this: China reaps massive economic benefits from trade with the US, while some American companies (almost always large-sized ones) benefit from cheap Chinese manufacturing, and sometimes access to the Chinese market as well. The winners: China, and some US companies. The losers: everyone else in the US.
Trump doesn't (yet) have ties with a lot of the US companies operating in China, so it doesn't put him or the US in general in a bad position if he wants to renegotiate trade relations with China, and in the process get popularity at home from appearing to support domestic manufacturing. The only thing he did by receiving that phone call was gain leverage for negotiations. It's a good move, and I guarantee you China was planning to do something similar if they didn't already.
You obviously missed the info about his interest in investing in Taiwan (trump corp) ... Essentially trump apart from being childish has seemingly this aspect to his negotiations (as he has mentioned in his books) go off the deep end on an issue with someone wanting to make a deal so the new normal is tilted towards you as you already went off the deep end .... Such moves don't normally work in international politics . Cause we're talking countries national pride ... It comes down to you think you can bully me well here let's do this so were both fucked and you can't act so smug .... Aka what many countries will consider vs us if this approach continues ... And a lot of those countries can take the hit ...
That's not how trade works. Everyone theoretically benefits as China's population get richer, so allow for more American exports, therefore growing the American economy. The problem is with low taxes for therich in US along with wage disparity and lack of good social welfare, meaning that the benefits are hugely unevenly distributed. Trade protectionism and proviking China won't solve those problems.
What leverage does passing someone off get you for someone btw?
Napoleonthechimp
Member
They're your manufacturing powerhouse. There is plenty they can do.
down 2 orth
Member
If he does something illegal, half of America will be glad to see his downfall, and many would jump at the chance to bring him down. I don't think he's going to put himself on such risky footing so early on.
Ethically, I'm not sure what the right call would be, but that's not really what I was discussing. My opinion is that he's making an effective posturing move against China, which can be an effective way of dealing with them. Contemporary China is an aggressively expansionist country, and diplomacy with that type of entity usually requires strong positioning.
down 2 orth
Member
Sorry, I think you're mistaken. The flow of wealth between China and the US is massively tilted in favor of China. And technically, protectionism can solve that problem.
It's worked very well for China in the last twenty five years.
PdotMichael
Banned
Other export heavy nations like Germany and Japan are still competive. Taiwan has a tighter economical relationship to China than the USA and the manufacturing industry does well.
USA just failed to transform from cheap low skilled manufactoring jobs to higher level jobs. You know what could bring back ten thousands of jobs back to the Midwest? Double dipping on renewable energy but who cares about climate change and stuff if we blame China for everything.
Hawaiian Punch
Neo Member
Good. Fuck China.
TheRedSnifit
Member
Obama sells $1.83 billion worth of weapons (including two missile frigates, amphibious assault vehicles, and anti-aircraft and anti-ship systems) to Taiwan over Chinese objections = Acceptable
Trump talks to Taiwan's President = Practically declaring war on China, economic collapse imminent.
Okay GAF.
Trump talks to Taiwan's President = Practically declaring war on China, economic collapse imminent.
Okay GAF.
down 2 orth
Member
Germany and Japan are relatively more open economies, but China is not. And while the Taiwanese economy is strongly tied to China, their current government sees China as an adversary, and they're happy to use this situation to their advantage.
Jobs probably aren't going to return to the US, but more favorable trade deals are definitely up for grabs.
My response is I'm glad I'm too old to be drafted.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
That's because China is extremely smart economically with plenty of economic muscle it hasn't even bothered to use yet. Have a look at currency rates for US vs China (a country it sells to) and look at every single economy China invests in . The currency exchange for the US is dropping while in the currency it invests in it's been increasing (greater buying power for China in places it invests more wealth brought in by selling to the US). This isn't by chance. This is meticulous macroeconomics on a global scale. Combine this with their painstaking trade deals delinkings the use of dollars when they buy oil.
Trump is an idiotic unbashedly inflationary president (which is awful for economic growth). He's a moron, you guys better hope to God he doesn't truly fuck with China because they are going to play you like a damn fiddle
PdotMichael
Banned
Don't blame China but the people who vote Republicans who believe trickle down economy is the greatest thing since sliced bread.
Haunted
Member
This is actually kinda reassuring to me. Trump still going after his own business interests without concern for geo-political fallout means that he probably wouldn't start World War III, because it'd be real bad for business.Would you look at that (from two weeks ago)...
Yeah, of course the economic power and global influence of the US will basically fall of a cliff during his presidency (big ol' scary military or not), but we just need to make sure that it's not only Russia and China that benefit from the power vacuum the US will leave behind as they continue to decline over the coming years.
down 2 orth
Member
I won't argue with your first point, but let's be practical here. Trump's not an idiot, he's just making sure that he has some influence as he goes into his presidency and that companies tied with the Republican party are going to get in on the next deals that go down.
Haunted
Member
Let me make this clear: Trump doesn't give a fuck about "everyone else in the US" - his major concern is to add his own companies to that "some US companies that benefit" column.
I think the Chinese will figure out that Trump is a huge ignorant moron.
The most likely scenario is that the Chinese (and probably everyone else) will keep in touch with the more sensible part of his team for diplomatic relations with the US and proceed to ignore him as much as possible for 4 years.
The most likely scenario is that the Chinese (and probably everyone else) will keep in touch with the more sensible part of his team for diplomatic relations with the US and proceed to ignore him as much as possible for 4 years.
down 2 orth
Member
That's probably true, but he does have a hell of an ego, and he probably spends a lot of time thinking about his legacy.
Why do you think people are questioning Trump's decision to do this?
Think about it for a second and then get back to me.
TheRedSnifit
Member
I dunno, you tell me.
I just find it surprising hat nobody made a thread about the US selling weapons to Taiwan back last December when it happened. Well, not that surprising, I guess.
It's not surprising because we've been selling weapons to Taiwan for decades.
People are not mad that we are friendly with Taiwan. We are Taiwan's ally. We have a defense treaty with them. If a nation was to attack Taiwan, the US would have to intervene. The issue is that Trump callously disregards nearly 40 years of foreign policy without consulting anyone in the government and then brags about it on Twitter. It is needlessly causing tensions between various countries around the world for no reason and really sets a precedent for the future foreign policy snafus his administration will undoubtedly make.
For starters, it wasn't done off the cuff and didn't reverse nearly 40 years of diplomatic policy. Congress had to approve the deal, for example, and all of our allies and even our own current government would have been aware of the plan beforehand rather than them learning about it on twitter.
It's really hard to take seriously anything you've written in this thread when you claim a global businessman with properties around the world has no idea about the situation between Taiwan and China. His entire campaign was a broadside against the Chinese. This is only the latest move.
exmachina64
Banned
How highly do you rate the skills of this global businessman? Is he such a skilled deal maker that he doesn't need to consult with the State Department and America's diplomats before making calls to foreign leaders? Is it okay that he continues to use an unsecured phone line for these calls?
I didn't say he has no idea about about the situation between Taiwan and China, I said that he ignored long-standing foreign policy, set by a Republican mind you, seemingly out of nowhere and with no consultation with the government. This is alarming to me. It's one thing to put pressure on China, it's another to do it in an incredibly ineffective way. What did this situation help? "It sends a message to China." What message?
And business does not equal diplomacy.
As an European, thus quite an external viewer, I think this was good.
I'm not a Trump supporter at all, but those decades of world hypocrisy on the China/Taiwan position have been utterly disgusting. It's time to move on, Taiwan deserves full recognition as an indipendent state and they deserve a seat at the U.N.
I'm not a Trump supporter at all, but those decades of world hypocrisy on the China/Taiwan position have been utterly disgusting. It's time to move on, Taiwan deserves full recognition as an indipendent state and they deserve a seat at the U.N.
Right and the unabashed retreat in tweets saying Taiwan called him while later reports claim it was mutually agreed don't strike you as bumbling in the slightest? You make it sound like he was calculated in the approach. The entire issue people have is that it wasn't. Changing the approach to our current agreement with Taiwan isn't the issue in so much that even if you want to put pressure on China, you don't do make the choice unilaterally and potentially unravel decades of negotiation on a whim.
No one is saying you have to consult China first but for fucks sake involve your own government first.
shinra-bansho
Member
Yes, he was clearly playing 11th dimensional space chess.
I'm not sure why you'd think you have an external view as a European. The nations of Europe also adhere to the One China policy, given they maintain active diplomatic relations with China.[Fugo];225897036 said:
I mean external regarding the States-China relationship.
I hope European nations would follow and abort this policy that goes against the self-determination principle
Theonik
Member
Because most people are legitimately not qualified to even comprehend issues of diplomacy let alone decide on them so they embrace simple solutions based on emotion.
[Fugo];225897036 said:
That "hypocrisy" is in place to reduce the risk of war. The very concept of an independent Taiwan makes China go berserk - the Chinese view is that Taiwan is actually still part of China and that they somewhat graciously simply allow them self-governance. That's why they react so strongly to something as simple as this phone call: it breaks with the fantasy.
Taiwan is de-facto independent and has been for decades. Making it declare independence would be a purely symbolic move with potentially dire consequences. Did you know, for instance, that China instated a law in 2005 that essentially forces Chinese leaders to react with violence to any such attempt from the Taiwanese? Here's the relevant paragraph:
Chinese Anti-Secession Law said:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4347555.stm
Trump's blundering is much, much more dangerous than he could possibly realise.
Seth Enosh
Member
Just to point out, the President of Taiwan is surely very aware of this and chose to make the call to Trump.
I haven't seen analysis as to why the president felt like talking to Trump wouldn't cause awful things. Is she widely believed to be incompetent / unqualified like Trump?
Fwiw, I have always found the one China policy to be ridiculous (remember when GWB said two Chinas in 2001 and then had to walk it back?) but I'm skeptical of the wisdom of making this phone call now.
tedrotheredro
Member
Trade war with China incoming. People don't care, for now, because China's "getting a better deal" without understanding comparative advantage and other basic economic principles. They'll be pissed when prices start rising with no wage growth, but that's a slow burn. We can blame it on automation or immigrants or whatever.
Isn't it obvious? She played Trump, pure and simple. The Taiwanese government doesn't respect China's "One China" policy. She just tricked Trump into joining her position.
It won't cause a war on its own, but by damaging US-Chinese relations she increased the chance of the US honoring its treaty if there ever is a war.
Androidsleeps
Member
Another dumb thing from Trump that's hailed by his sheep supporters repeating the one talking point handed to them by Brietbart, and by some people on the far left who want to believe that Trump is doing some intricate political/diplomatic moves that are actually for the greater good and this is actually a good thing.
I'll stay tuned for the next episode of "What did Trump do today?"
I'll stay tuned for the next episode of "What did Trump do today?"
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
The top is policy, the latter is either Trump is stupid or putting his buisness relations first.
V
Vilix
Unconfirmed Member
According to Racheal Maddow Trump doesn't take either security or state briefings.
I agree with this.
In the midst of all this fretting about China and about the US, I feel like this thread is sorely lacking from the perspective of Taiwan and its people. They are an independent state even if they don't have the international recognition of this status; the odd relationship between the US and China provides a circumstance in which Taiwan can maintain this independent state. All of this posturing about how the US shouldn't have to kowtow to China, but few of those people are thinking about the consequences this would have on Taiwan. If China chooses to act aggressively, Taiwan wouldn't be able to resist very much. A population of 23.5 million may be threatened because of the president-elect lacks knowledge of how to navigate foreign relations.
I think a lot of people in this thread saying the rough equivalent of "U S A" and talking shit about China don't understand how important the idea of 'face' is in Chinese culture.
'Face' is basically pride; even if its just words to give a person face, that person can be slightly satisfied by the paying of due respect. By flaunting the first principle in relations with China, you're basically disrespecting China. They might think they have to act aggressively to save face and show that they can't be pushed around by the US. The One China approach gives China face even if the reality is that it's all symbolic gestures.
From another perspective, one could also consider that the situation specific to "One China" (aka Taiwan) may be symbolic, but the gesture of acknowledging this idea gives China the status of an equal in the Pacific sphere, and to China that may be worth more than actually having Taiwan as part of China. To them it means they have equal if not greater control in the Pacific than the US does. If this is breached, then China could also strike out in different ways to assert its status.
Cheap Chinese labor benefits everyone in the US wether they want to admit it or not. Cheap labor makes our domestic economy more efficient and opens up opportunities beyond working 60 hour weeks in a factory.
Sure there are those that benefit more financially from our relationship with China and those that are left behind but that all comes down to our own politics.
I think those of you that point to the reasoning that "China won't do anything because they need use just as much as we need them" are glossing over a rather important fact--- why do China and America have such large and technologically advance militaries? I promise you, it's not to fight ISIS or the possibility of alien invasion. It's to fight each other or to discourage fighting each other. Just because things are good between us now and you can't recall a time in your own life whererelationships were bad, doesn't mean it can't turn sour fast with the right conditions. World stability is a lot less stable then people would care to admit. Look at the Philippines. Traditionally a very close friend of the US, but it got a leader that ideologically opposed the US and went running to China. Only because we now have a likeminded individual as US President have they come back to the table. Iran, Cuba, Russia, etc... all at one point allies of the US, but no longer. Get the wrong people in the right positions of power... anything can happen...
What?
You cannot posture against China with land the Chinese government and people still consider to be part of China.
I'm going to grossly simplify for the sake of clarity, but what Trump essentially did here would be like if Russia suddenly recognized a US state as its own sovereign nation.
He's undermining China's claim on Taiwan in a very real and dangerous way. This is a clear threat to Chinese sovereignty, and you'd be foolish to think the US wouldn't be outraged if another superpower attempted similar with us. And we can all sit at our desks and discuss theoretically whether the whole One-China thing needs to change, but this is not how you do it.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
According to the BBC China blamed Taiwan for it, doesn't sound like a big deal. Sounds like people blew this out of proportion.
this blew my mind. Now I wonder which other countries cut their diplomatic relationships with Taiwan to this day because they dare not offending China. Trump accidently did a good thing for once, China is pissed at the US because of the South China Sea territorial disputes and military bases in Asia anyway so hey why not recognize one of the more socially and politically progressive and economically successful countries in that region
Theonik
Member
Because they are in a civil war with them technically since the whole Mao revolution thing.
They also gave the US a thinly veiled warning.
andythinkpad
Member
The most likely scenario is China will make connection to Trump through his children.
Sounds like normal Chinese-US relations. Pretty sure we lob those at each other every other day.
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