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[Mohonky]

So much for the recent relatively good relations with China

I dont see China getting involved except to try and prevent anything from kicking off in the first place.

China stepping in and helping NK against an allied SK and US guarantees WWIII. If anything. China will likely draw a line on their border and tell the US they stop there and any present deals they have with NK for resources continues on with whomever take control of NK in the aftermath.

 

[Pagusas]

sauce.

Kinda doubt that china would just gon sit still and watch those 130bil in trade go up in flames, but what do i know.

If war breaks out, money will not be the priority asset to protect.

 

[Goofalo]

I think China gets involved in that they ask the US and SK for significant amounts of financial support for refugee camps they will be setting up on their border with NK.

 

[Coriolanus]

If war breaks out, money will not be the priority asset to protect.

Until war breaks out, however, money determines alliances.

 

[SuperEpicMan]

Nope.

lol

I would love to be wrong, but there seems to be a lot information to suggest otherwise. Whilst admittedly a lot of this information when viewed on its own may be nothing to worry about, collectively they seem pretty troubling:

Obviously there is the news in this thread for starters.
There was also news that 150,000 Chinese troops were massing on the North Korean border. Link.
The numerous stories about US ships and submarines arriving in the area. Link.
Donald Trump invites entire Senate to White House for North Korea briefing. Link.
Mike Pence visited Seoul to discuss military options. Link.
Trump's frequent talks with China regarding North Korea. Link.

Also, regarding Trump:

He is quickly approaching the end of his first 100 days, with little to show for it.
There is the growing Russia scandal which Trump is desperate to distract people from.
Sally Yates and James Clapper are both testifying to the Senate Committee on the 8th May.
His polling is currently awful.
With the Syrian strikes, he has already shown he is willing to make decisions without approval from the senate.
Lastly, he has at numerous times alluded to his plans for North Korea often on Twitter, but notably during his press conference back in February. Link.

 

[turmoil]

How much Mexico could get for letting China deploy some defensive systems in their norther border?

 

[shandy706]

If war breaks out, it wouldn't surprise me if China's response to North Korea's cry for help is "Good luck with that guys."

Aren't there anti-missile systems in Israel? How effective are they? Guessing they're pretty good? Not the same thing?

 

[Goofalo]

If war breaks out, it wouldn't surprise me if China's response to North Korea's cry for help is "Good luck with that guys."

Aren't there anti-missile systems in Israel? How effective are they? Guessing they're pretty good? Not the same thing?

I believe Iron Dome in Israel is much shorter range and designed to even intercept incoming rockets and artillery. THAAD is designed for longer range ballistic threats and designed to neutralize those threats at a higher altitude.

 

[wesleyshark]

THAAD is a good thing for SK to have. The spin on this is wild.

 

[Mohonky]

If war breaks out, it wouldn't surprise me if China's response to North Korea's cry for help is "Good luck with that guys."

Aren't there anti-missile systems in Israel? How effective are they? Guessing they're pretty good? Not the same thing?

Well as I pointed out earlier, China joining NK against a SK and US force pretty much drags in all US allies, so yeh, WWIII, and China doesnt care for NK that greatly, so long as they get something from NK I doubt they'll care all that much.

Isreals defence shield is more or less just for rockets from Gaza and the West Bank as far as I know. I dont think they have anything for intercontinental threats. I could be mistaken though.

 

[Staf]

Good on ya US. All countries near that nutjob in NK should have this system.

 

[Aikidoka]

This seems like a good thing (if the THAAD actually works), but maybe my understanding is just too naive. Is the concern that NK will take preemptive action and strike at South Korea? I don't see how that action would be even remotely palatable to the rest of the world, and that would kind of guarantee NK being bombed. Would the alternative be just placate NK until there's a regime change that isn't crazy? That just seems like a pipe dream.

 

[Dehnus]

So many arrogant, self confident warhawks in this thread. You guys do know that NK has bio and chemical weapons right? Are you ready for those casualties? Sigh, just again shows that the USA of today doesn't play well together with the other children. 😒



Work worth China on a culture change there, and allow the north Koreans to overthrow the government themselves!

 

[wesleyshark]

So many arrogant, self confident warhawks in this thread. You guys do know that NK has bio and chemical weapons right? Are you ready for those casualties? Sigh, just again shows that the USA of today doesn't play well together with the other children. 😒



Work worth China on a culture change there, and allow the north Koreans to overthrow the government themselves!

The North Korean people aren't going to overthrow their oppressive government. The noose is too tight around their necks.

 

[Goofalo]

Work worth China on a culture change there, and allow the north Koreans to overthrow the government themselves!

Wat.

 

[Soldiussnaku]

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/857239355093659648

Today is NK briefing in White House. They start putting up very debated (within SK) THAAD into SK over night and expect it to be online in few days. Nuclear sub openly in SK harbor.

Dick measurement competition or are they really preparing for something to go down soon?

Well the current administration view on NK, as far as we know, is maximum pressure and engagement, sadly you have agent orange in that mix and we all know he can fly off the handle at anytime. However right now the US military is showing NK just how long it's dick is and will pile on the pressure even more before it launches a strike.

Right now I would say they are playing the pressure angle and preparing for things if NK decides to force them south(literally too).

 

[Seductivpancakes]

So many arrogant, self confident warhawks in this thread. You guys do know that NK has bio and chemical weapons right? Are you ready for those casualties? Sigh, just again shows that the USA of today doesn't play well together with the other children. 😒



Work worth China on a culture change there, and allow the north Koreans to overthrow the government themselves!

You're acting like the chemical weapons are unstoppable.

 

[4Tran]

I dont see China getting involved except to try and prevent anything from kicking off in the first place.

China stepping in and helping NK against an allied SK and US guarantees WWIII. If anything. China will likely draw a line on their border and tell the US they stop there and any present deals they have with NK for resources continues on with whomever take control of NK in the aftermath.

China is going to avoid getting involved in any conflict and they'll do their best to avoid one as well. That goes regardless of what South Korea does so THAAD doesn't affect that. However, China has already retaliated in other ways.

How much Mexico could get for letting China deploy some defensive systems in their norther border?

Nothing because China isn't interested in playing that kind of game.

This seems like a good thing (if the THAAD actually works), but maybe my understanding is just too naive. Is the concern that NK will take preemptive action and strike at South Korea? I don't see how that action would be even remotely palatable to the rest of the world, and that would kind of guarantee NK being bombed. Would the alternative be just placate NK until there's a regime change that isn't crazy? That just seems like a pipe dream.

The problem is that THAAD isn't just a defensive system and it doesn't just affect the Koreas. China is already unhappy about it, and while they won't initiate any military action over it, they've already put the squeeze on South Korean imports. The bans on Korean cultural imports are probably going to hurt especially badly because China is the primary export market for these products.

There really isn't any alternative to waiting North Korea out because there's no party in the region that wants Korean War Part II.

 

[Tovarisc]

You're acting like the chemical weapons are unstoppable.

Against civilian populace they can be and are extremely devastating, especially if you deliver them to densely packed city like Soul. They aren't unstoppable, but if they have CW's and methods of delivery they could inflict large civilian casualties.

 

[Marky Mark]

They gotta get THAAD Extended Range, too.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3SMs_IR1vc

I didnt realise these promotional videos for military equipment were so bro-hard. Terrifying, now I'm watching all sorts of promo vids.

 

[Goofalo]

Against civilian populace they can be and are extremely devastating, especially if you deliver them to densely packed city like Soul. They aren't unstoppable, but if they have CW's and methods of delivery they could inflict large civilian casualties.

The city's subway system is designed to be a shelter for that. Granted, the masks they have down there aren't for those seeking shelter, but for those coordinating the ingress into the station. The ROK is a pretty paranoid/prepared country in terms of response to any sort of attack from the DPRK. There will be casualties, but I don't think it's going to be as dramatic as anyone says it will be.

 

[Sevenfold]

I strongly suspect some preventative strikes by the US as early as today or tomorrow.

Incredibly unlikely thus entirely possible I guess.

 

[Goofalo]

Incredibly unlikely thus entirely possible I guess.

Maybe it hinges on Ivanka showing Daddy some pictures of suffering NK children.

 

[Liha]

When will China send 500.000 "North Korean" soldiers into NK? It worked well the last time for both of them.

 

[Seductivpancakes]

Against civilian populace they can be and are extremely devastating, especially if you deliver them to densely packed city like Soul. They aren't unstoppable, but if they have CW's and methods of delivery they could inflict large civilian casualties.

yea because it requires to be delivered without interference, I see that as a big flaw.

 

[HellforLeather]

Arent these missile defense systems kinda not all that effective? Not only that but I was under the impression that they tend to amp up any arms race.

So say your missile defense system has a 50% success rate, then the enemy just fires twice as many missiles at you to defeat the system.

 

[LordOfChaos]

Speaking as someone living in South Korea, it's definitely controversial to Koreans also.

Interesting to hear - what's the internal reasoning against it?

US military base opposition I can understand, THAAD only functions as defensive though right?

 

[Imperfected]

Arent these missile defense systems kinda not all that effective? Not only that but I was under the impression that they tend to amp up any arms race.

So say your missile defense system has a 50% success rate, then the enemy just fires twice as many missiles at you to defeat the system.

That's not really how things work. There are a finite number of launch platforms, and a major goal of your enemy is going to be to destroy those platforms and positions. If half your missiles get shot down, half of the enemy missile systems don't get destroyed by your missiles, and then however many of your systems get destroyed by theirs, leading into a rapidly compounding effect.

You can't just lob every missile you've ever built skyward simultaneously like some kind of giant anime robot.

 

[LordOfChaos]

You can't just lob every missile you've ever built skyward simultaneously like some kind of giant anime robot.

...It's not like this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1tGCDeOi2o

 

[Sevenfold]

Maybe it hinges on Ivanka showing Daddy some pictures of suffering NK children.

I don't see which of the possible outcomes can be anything other than catastrophic for the populace.

 

[Moofers]

I would love to be wrong, but there seems to be a lot information to suggest otherwise. Whilst admittedly a lot of this information when viewed on its own may be nothing to worry about, collectively they seem pretty troubling:

Obviously there is the news in this thread for starters.
There was also news that 150,000 Chinese troops were massing on the North Korean border. Link.
The numerous stories about US ships and submarines arriving in the area. Link.
Donald Trump invites entire Senate to White House for North Korea briefing. Link.
Mike Pence visited Seoul to discuss military options. Link.
Trump's frequent talks with China regarding North Korea. Link.

Also, regarding Trump:

He is quickly approaching the end of his first 100 days, with little to show for it.
There is the growing Russia scandal which Trump is desperate to distract people from.
Sally Yates and James Clapper are both testifying to the Senate Committee on the 8th May.
His polling is currently awful.
With the Syrian strikes, he has already shown he is willing to make decisions without approval from the senate.
Lastly, he has at numerous times alluded to his plans for North Korea often on Twitter, but notably during his press conference back in February. Link.

Yeah, the quick dismissals of your concerns are a bit naive. I think you're right on the money.

 

[Xando]

Arent these missile defense systems kinda not all that effective? Not only that but I was under the impression that they tend to amp up any arms race.

No one really knows how good they are.

Military says close to 100% intercept. Experts say could be from 50-100% in live action scenarios.


I believe Israels iron dome which is considered to be one of the best missile interception systems had a efficiency close to 80-90% in the last gaza conflict

 

[Chezzymann]

So was this what that Senate meeting was about?

 

[Moofers]

So was this what that Senate meeting was about?

Related, yes. That meeting is taking place today.

 

[LordOfChaos]

I don't see which of the possible outcomes can be anything other than catastrophic for the populace.

Point: rehab of Japan, Germany.
Counterpoint: Everything else in the last 75 years.

It's a horrible regime, but yeah, it's hard to see a good way out of it.

 

[Tovarisc]

So was this what that Senate meeting was about?

No, that briefing is yet to happen.

 

[wesleyshark]

So was this what that Senate meeting was about?

I imagine it will be a part of it.

 

[HellforLeather]

That's not really how things work. There are a finite number of launch platforms, and a major goal of your enemy is going to be to destroy those platforms and positions. If half your missiles get shot down, half of the enemy missile systems don't get destroyed by your missiles, and then however many of your systems get destroyed by theirs, leading into a rapidly compounding effect.

You can't just lob every missile you've ever built skyward simultaneously like some kind of giant anime robot.

Maybe Im missing something but arent you saying that what I said was correct then? The enemy uses the success rate of the missile defense system to calculate the additional firepower needed to launch a successful strike.

Meaning they might be successful in Israel against a single missile launch into the country but in all out warfare between 2 nations with modern missile tech it only serves to create an arms race between the two in order to maintain the firepower required to successfully hit their targets regardless of any interception system.

 

[Kenstar]

No one really knows how good they are.

Military says close to 100% intercept. Experts say could be from 50-100% in live action scenarios.


I believe Israels iron dome which is considered to be one of the best missile interception systems had a efficiency close to 80-90% in the last gaza conflict

Iron dome is also a short range rocket/ artilery shell interceptor, it cant handle MIRVs splitting apart in the upper atmosphere coming down at 4 miles per second

Maybe Im missing something but arent you saying that what I said was correct then? The enemy uses the success rate of the missile defense system to calculate the additional firepower needed to launch a successful strike.

Meaning they might be successful in Israel against a single missile launch into the country but in all out warfare between 2 nations with modern missile tech it only serves to create an arms race between the two in order to maintain the firepower required to successfully hit their targets regardless of any interception system since (from what Ive read) none of them are even remotely close to a 100% success rate.

It's not ABOUT simply launching a single successful strike
Once you LAUNCH that strike you've sentenced yourself to nuclear retaliation, and just because at the end of the day you got your one hit in won't bring back your crumbling husk of a country if the other guys missile defense allowed him to spur most of your attacks on his silos and use them to fuck your shit right up

 

[Imperfected]

Maybe Im missing something but arent you saying that what I said was correct then? The enemy uses the success rate of the missile defense system to calculate the additional firepower needed to launch a successful strike.

I'm saying North Korea can't just magic up another five hundred launch positions. It's like saying, "If a North Korean soldier is only worth 1/20th of a US soldier in terms of combat effectiveness, can't they just get another 20,000,000 soldiers and call it square?"

 

[Tamanator]

The diplomatic solution has failed in solving the problem of North Korea. Clinton should have bombed North Korea in the 90s when he initially wanted to in order to halt the North Korean nuclear program and cripple the regime.

As it stands, China won't do anything significant to support a regime change. There's not going to be some spur of the moment resistance movement to topple the government. The Kim family have consolidated their hold over the country since the end of WWII, economic sanctions did not significantly destabilise the regime either.

The only options are a continuation of the status quo, which seems to be changing due to the heightening of aggression on the part of North Korea or a pre-emptive strike that takes out as much of the military capabilities of North Korea as possible. I'm no neocon, but this is a case where military action is really the only real response if the aim is to end the repressive dictatorship of North Korea. Empty diplomatic platitudes are as effective as the 'diplomatic solution' to end the Syrian civil war.

 

[HellforLeather]

I'm saying North Korea can't just magic up another five hundred launch positions. It's like saying, "If a North Korean soldier is only worth 1/20th of a US soldier in terms of combat effectiveness, can't they just get another 20,000,000 soldiers and call it square?"

Im only saying that these defense systems serve more to foster an arms race in the long term than anything else. Again, Im not expert but how effective would one anti missile THAAD system be if North Korea decided to launch a missile attack against South Korea or China? Would North Korea need 500 missile launch positions for a successful strike when the THAAD battery has been completed?

 

[Liha]

The only options are a continuation of the status quo, which seems to be changing due to the heightening of aggression on the part of North Korea or a pre-emptive strike that takes out as much of the military capabilities of North Korea as possible. I'm no neocon, but this is a case where military action is really the only real response if the aim is to end the repressive dictatorship of North Korea. Empty diplomatic platitudes are as effective as the 'diplomatic solution' to end the Syrian civil war.

You want to attack a country which has nuclear and chemical weapons and is willing to use them in order to defend itself? Are you prepared for killing millions of people incl. approximately 20.000 US Soldiers, creating millions of refugees and a destroyed Korean Peninsula? Neither China nor SK will support such an insane plan.

 

[Xando]

Iron dome is also a short range rocket/ artilery shell interceptor, it cant handle MIRVs splitting apart in the upper atmosphere coming down at 4 miles per second

Well as much as i know THAAD is also unable to handle MIRVs splitted isn't it? The goal is always to hit the missile before it splits.

I recon if the missile splits success chance for interception goes down considerably

 

[cilonen]

The US and SK are also holding live fire excercises around 15 miles from the NK border too.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-asia-39720787/us-and-south-korea-hold-live-fire-drill

This could end badly really easily.

 

[Kenstar]

Im only saying that these defense systems serve more to foster an arms race in the long term than anything else. Again, Im not expert but how effective would one anti missile THAAD system be if North Korea decided to launch a missile attack against South Korea or China? Would North Korea need 500 missile launch positions for a successful strike when the THAAD battery has been completed?

That would require NK to know how many defense installations there are in SK.
And these installations are much cheaper and easier to move and obfuscate than a single expensive silo on their end.

Well as much as i know THAAD is also unable to handle MIRVs splitted isn't it? The goal is always to hit the missile before it splits.

I recon if the missile splits success chance for interception goes down considerably

Hitting themon the way up costs a lot more money, requires immediate response and is harder to do vs waiting for them to come back down, unpowered and decelerating

THAAD has a max altitude of 93 miles with a max speed of Mach 8.2, and is made to attack them in their terminal phase on their way back to earth

 

[FreedomFighter]

They're forcing it in there before a probable Moon Jae-in victory.

Doesn't look like a lot of people want that missile system there.

 

[Goofalo]

The US and SK are also holding live fire excercises around 15 miles from the NK border too.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-asia-39720787/us-and-south-korea-hold-live-fire-drill

This could end badly really easily.

They always do that. That's where the live fire range is.

 

[andythinkpad]

This is another reason China and US will never cooperate on the NK issue.

 

[Laieon]

Interesting to hear - what's the internal reasoning against it?

US military base opposition I can understand, THAAD only functions as defensive though right?

Some of it is US military base opposition, the town it's deployed in just isn't really fan of it being there though.