Uh-Oh, HD-DVD lands 4 movie studios support for holiday 2005

http://money.cnn.com/2004/11/29/technology/toshiba_dvd.reut/index.htm

Toshiba wins HD DVD support
Four film studios are expected to release movies on the new HD format in the last quarter of 2005.
November 29, 2004: 7:35 AM EST

TOKYO (Reuters) - Toshiba Corp. said Monday it had won support for the HD DVD optical disc standard from Warner Bros. Studios, Paramount Pictures, Universal Pictures and New Line Cinema, advancing its cause in the battle for the next-generation DVD.

Toshiba, with NEC Corp. and Sanyo Electric Co. Ltd., is promoting a next-generation DVD technology called HD DVD, while Sony Corp. (Research) and several other giants of the electronics, computer and movie industries are backing a competing standard dubbed Blu-ray.

Support from U.S. film studios is seen as vital in this format battle, just as it was when the VHS standard prevailed over Sony's Betamax two decades ago.

"After extensive research and careful consideration ... we have determined that HD DVD has the highest quality of performance and offers key advantages in the areas of durability and reliability," Warner Bros. said in a statement.

Warner Bros. and New Line Cinema are units of Time Warner Inc. (Research), Universal Pictures is a division of General Electric Co. (Research), and Paramount Pictures is a unit of Viacom Inc. (Research).

They represent about 45 percent of Hollywood's prepackaged DVD sales in the United States, Toshiba said.

Those studios are expected to release movie titles on the HD DVD format in time for the planned launch of HD DVD players in the last quarter of 2005.

Both HD DVD and Blu-ray technologies use blue lasers, which have shorter wave length than the red lasers used in current DVD equipment, allowing discs to store data at the higher densities needed for high-definition movies and television.

At stake is pole position in the $10 billion-a-year DVD player and recorder market, and a PC drive market of similar size. The winner would be able to license its technology, meaning billions of dollars in royalty income is also up for grabs.

Toshiba, Japan's second-largest electronics conglomerate, alone expects its HD DVD-related sales to grow to ¥300 billion ($2.92 billion) by 2010 from an estimated ¥5 billion in 2005.
Battle yet to be over

"We think this carries a great impact," Toshiba Corporate Senior Vice President Yoshihide Fujii told a news conference.

"There is a strong desire in Hollywood for a single format (for next-generation DVD). Support from studios whose DVD sales account for nearly half of the market means, in our view, Hollywood has started moving towards the single format (HD DVD)."

Toshiba, however, said it was too early to declare victory over the Blu-ray camp, whose members include such heavyweights as Dell Inc. (Research), Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd., Philips and Matsushita Electric Industrial Co., maker of Panasonic brand products.

Blu-ray has the support of Sony Pictures and the tacit backing of Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer Inc. (Research), recently acquired by a Sony-led consortium. It is also counting on Twentieth Century Fox, which recently joined the Blu-ray Disc Association board.

With the same physical structure as current discs, HD DVD allows makers to use much of their existing DVD equipment, keeping fresh investment minimal and curbing manufacturing costs, Toshiba has said.

The Blu-ray firms say their format is better because a single-layer disc can hold about 25 gigabytes, enough to record up to three hours of high-definition TV, versus 20 gigabytes for HD DVDs. Blu-ray says the possibility of even higher capacities in the future would give its technology a longer life span.

Ahead of the announcement, Toshiba shares closed up 1.64 percent at ¥435, while Sony gained 1.9 percent at ¥3,760, outperforming the Tokyo stock market's electric machinery index, which was up 1.52 percent. Top of page
 
Jesus, why can't they all agree on one format, this could be uglier then DVD
 
cybamerc said:
Eh... there wasn't much of a battle with DVD. DIVX never took off.


Think DVD+- but worse
 
Hmmm... This could get nasty...

HD-DVD will win if they release Bladerunner, Lord of the Rings and some Star Trek flicks...
 
PhatSaqs said:
Blu Ray = Betamax

:lol, you are jumping the gun way too early.

Sony Pictures, MGM and 20th Century Fox (with Disney suposely preparing support for Blu-Ray as well) plus the fact that we will see Blu-Ray hardware in PlayStation 3 and DELL and HP based PCs (based on their recent announcements) should make the optical format battle very interesting ;).
 
nubbe said:
Hmmm... This could get nasty...

HD-DVD will win if they release Bladerunner, Lord of the Rings and some Star Trek flicks...

Which could be counter-attacked with Spider-man series, the Star-Wars series, the James Bond Series, etc...

The battle is not going to be so quick unless one of the two camps announces a compromised alliance to the opposing camp.
 
Panajev2001a said:
:lol, you are jumping the gun way too early.

Sony Pictures, MGM and 20th Century Fox (with Disney suposely preparing support for Blu-Ray as well) plus the fact that we will see Blu-Ray hardware in PlayStation 3 and DELL and HP based PCs (based on their recent announcements) should make the optical format battle very interesting ;).
Yeah. Just in for a morning sTROLL :p
 
cybamerc said:
Except for the most part having two incompatible recordable formats didn't have a great effect on consumers.

Except that recordable DVD will never go anywhere as far as mainstream consumers go. The inability to come across with a common format is a big part of that.
 
Nick Laslett said:
I only read 3 studios, New Line is part of the Time Warner empire.

(Or I could be 100% wrong?)

that would be like crossing out MGM because they're owned by sony
 
Panajev2001a said:
:lol, you are jumping the gun way too early.

Sony Pictures, MGM and 20th Century Fox (with Disney suposely preparing support for Blu-Ray as well)
Warner Bros. Studios, Paramount Pictures, Universal Pictures and New Line Cinema > Sony Pictures, MGM and 20th Century Fox

cannot add disney to the mix yet, there is not official announcement of support.
 
sonycowboy said:
Except that recordable DVD will never go anywhere as far as mainstream consumers go. The inability to come across with a common format is a big part of that.
Late introduction and limited capacity are the reasons why recordable DVDs will never take off in the consumer space.
 
Pardon my ignorance, but will either of the new DVD formats look much different than a movie that I can see on HBO HD in 1080i?

I don't really understand what it is, exactly, that they're selling.
 
Unison:

> Pardon my ignorance, but will either of the new DVD formats look much different than a
> movie that I can see on HBO HD in 1080i?

Potentially yes. Both formats have support for 1080p, superior CODECs and likely have the capacity for higher bitrates.
 
Anyone that wants that archaic stop-gap HD-DVD to "win" is ridiculous. Not to mention I shudder at the thought of whatever DRM scheme Toshiba offered to these studios in order to get them on board.
 
Panajev2001a said:
:lol, you are jumping the gun way too early.

Sony Pictures, MGM and 20th Century Fox (with Disney suposely preparing support for Blu-Ray as well) plus the fact that we will see Blu-Ray hardware in PlayStation 3 and DELL and HP based PCs (based on their recent announcements) should make the optical format battle very interesting ;).
Fox has never said they are releaseing movies, Sony and MGM are like announcing Warner and New Line (:P), Disney hasn't said jack about shit either way, and the only advantage will be in the PS3 as I imagine DELL and HP will start shipping HD-DVD (as will Toshiba in laptops obviously) as soon as someone (toshiba) actually releases HD-DVD-ROM drives.

I've been saying this for a while.... the two formats will cause HD movies to be DOA just like high-res audio. Sony should stop trying to gobble up format licensing rights and work within the DVD Forum....
 
bitwise said:
Warner Bros. Studios, Paramount Pictures, Universal Pictures and New Line Cinema > Sony Pictures, MGM and 20th Century Fox

I am not so sure about that ;).

Still hardware support will play a factor in Content providers' decisions.

Having Blu-Ray in PlayStation 3 and in HP and DELL PCs would mean a HUGE amount of BLu-Ray players ready to play Blu-Ray ROM movies.
 
cybamerc said:
Potentially yes. Both formats have support for 1080p, superior CODECs and likely have the capacity for higher bitrates.

Cool. There is positively a noticable difference between a DVD and a 1080i broadcast. I better start selling some DVDs now. :lol

The question is whether this is going to be an enthusiast's format or if we can expect it to catch on like DVD did. It's tough to imagine my parents not thinking DVDs are good enough, since they don't have an HD set yet even.
 
borghe said:
Fox has never said they are releaseing movies, Sony and MGM are like announcing Warner and New Line (:P), Disney hasn't said jack about shit either way, and the only advantage will be in the PS3 as I imagine DELL and HP will start shipping HD-DVD (as will Toshiba in laptops obviously) as soon as someone (toshiba) actually releases HD-DVD-ROM drives.

Fox will release movies, they will not just sit there and twiddle their thumbs IMHO.

HP and DELL will start with Blu-Ray, as they announced, as Longhorn has support for both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD.

PlayStation 3 pushing Blu-Ray is also not a small factor to consider.
 
Unison said:
Pardon my ignorance, but will either of the new DVD formats look much different than a movie that I can see on HBO HD in 1080i?

I don't really understand what it is, exactly, that they're selling.
technically yes.

in practice, no.

we have been over this many times in this forum. most TV viewers sit too far away to full resolve 720p, let alone 1080i. 1080p is effectively the same picture as 1080i only without interlace artifacts.

so no, if you can't tell a difference on HBO-HD, you won't be able to tell a difference on HD-DVD or Blu-ray.

The only guaranteed place that people seem to be able to tell a difference is stuff shot live on HD video (sports). but filmed content is almost always underwhelming in HD (when you expect it to blow DVD out of the water that is).

and before enthusiasts come in and flame me, I have been watching HD since before the 5/1/2002 turn on date... I have watched hundreds, probably even thousands of hours of HD.. everything from Superbowls, to the last two LOTR movies, AOTC, CSI, NFL regular season, Sopranos, Deadwood, etc. I'm not saying it doesn't look better at all.. but most just really don't notice it on filmed content..
 
MakMan said:
So PS3 can't play future DVD-releases (from these studios)?

DVD releases yes, HD-DVD releases maybe not... but adding HD-DVD compatibility to Blu-Ray is much easier than adding Blu-Ray compatibility to HD-DVD players... so we cannto say anything yet.

PlayStation 3 might choose to fully push only Blu-Ray ROM as HD solution (Blu-Ray ROM, DVD-ROM and CD-ROM would be the formats PlayStation 3 would support in this case as the presentation slides from that SCE meeting stated).

We will see which movie studios will break their "esclusive" stance: the number of potential customers will play a role and this is why Sony is pushing Blu-Ray ROM into PlayStation 3: it can allow them to build a Blu-Ray ROM user-base quite nicely.
 
I don't see how movie studios can back something, who's competitior is going to have the, from what appears to be, obviously better product, as well as right out of the gate placement in millions upon millions of entertainment centers and offices, with integration in the PlayStation 3 and Dell PCs. I guess it will come down to which format consumers support that decides where the studios go in the long term, but from what I can tell this is only going to hurt them as they confuse consumers. Oh well, which format will you guys be supporting? From the sounds of things, it's blu-ray for me.
 
Panajev2001a said:
Fox will release movies, they will not just sit there and twiddle their thumbs IMHO.
Fox twiddled their thumbs for 1.5 years on DVD... and even supported Divx before finally making the plunge.. I might not bet on that statement..
 
borghe said:
Fox twiddled their thumbs for 1.5 years on DVD... and even supported Divx before finally making the plunge.. I might not bet on that statement..

I am not betting ;).

I am supporting the best format technologically speaking and so far it is Blu-Ray (raw storage-wise and video and audio codec-wise as well [inclusiong of the improoved MPEG4 AVC High Profile]).
 
and for the record.. the only name that is a surprise here is paramount.. the other three (warner, new line, and universal) all had DVD product on the shelves at format launch..

but paramount was one of the later studios to actually support DVD so it is a little surprising that they are announcing HD-DVD support so early, especially considering that they aren't a member of the forum (Viacom that is).
 
Panajev2001a said:
:lol, you are jumping the gun way too early.

Sony Pictures, MGM and 20th Century Fox (with Disney suposely preparing support for Blu-Ray as well) plus the fact that we will see Blu-Ray hardware in PlayStation 3 and DELL and HP based PCs (based on their recent announcements) should make the optical format battle very interesting ;).

Indeed. HD-DVD is going to be in for the long haul with studio support such as this. Those are not trival movie studios. If it means lower prices for consumers, I'm all for it. :)
 
I don't understand all the hassle to get those new standards out anyway. The average joe is not gonna rebuy his entire DVD collection, let alone notice any difference between DVD and HD-DVD. The comsumer doesn't want or need this new standard, only ones interested are technophiles, geeks and serious collectors (think StarWars or LOTR freaks who buy everything).

However i'm pretty sure there is a mind boggling huge marketing campaign in the works right now to brand DVD as a thing of the past and all people who still use them as idiots or whatever. So eventually they'll shove it down everyones throat.
 
borghe said:
technically yes.

in practice, no.

we have been over this many times in this forum. most TV viewers sit too far away to full resolve 720p, let alone 1080i. 1080p is effectively the same picture as 1080i only without interlace artifacts.

so no, if you can't tell a difference on HBO-HD, you won't be able to tell a difference on HD-DVD or Blu-ray.

The only guaranteed place that people seem to be able to tell a difference is stuff shot live on HD video (sports). but filmed content is almost always underwhelming in HD (when you expect it to blow DVD out of the water that is).

and before enthusiasts come in and flame me, I have been watching HD since before the 5/1/2002 turn on date... I have watched hundreds, probably even thousands of hours of HD.. everything from Superbowls, to the last two LOTR movies, AOTC, CSI, NFL regular season, Sopranos, Deadwood, etc. I'm not saying it doesn't look better at all.. but most just really don't notice it on filmed content..

I think we will notice it in the newer movies that are filmed completely with high-def digital cameras. All of the movies I have seen on HBO-HD are just upsampled anyway. So, although I'm excited about the new HD-DVD format, I know it will take a lot longer for consumers to adopt it. Expect prices to remain realatively high for an extended period of time.
 
Panajev2001a said:
:lol, you are jumping the gun way too early.

Sony Pictures, MGM and 20th Century Fox (with Disney suposely preparing support for Blu-Ray as well) plus the fact that we will see Blu-Ray hardware in PlayStation 3 and DELL and HP based PCs (based on their recent announcements) should make the optical format battle very interesting ;).
Disney? Sure I read that Disney were likely to sign a deal with HD DVD. Of course none of these are exclusive contracts. Sony spent $300m of the $5bn it cost to "buy" MGM, the two investment banks and Comcast will put profitability over silly platform wars.

Dell and HP are slaves to what the Taiwanese supply to 'em and the likes of Asus and Foxconn don't want Blu-ray and the huge licensing costs associated with it. Sure, there'll be a handful of token $3,000 Blu-ray machines early on but when it gets down to mass market Dell and HP aren't going to choose Blu-ray over core marketshare. Also the little point that Toshiba are quite a big notebook maker and NEC the biggest PC manufacturer in the worlds second largest economy.

Blu-ray in some PS3s, yes, in all? If Sony are suicidal! 0% penetration for HDTV in Europe, only 40% in the US by end of 2008. Sony would be utterly barmy to make Blu-ray standard in PS3, the redundant tech would cost them a fortune, as with PS2, but DVD could play on normal TVs and there was a need for a VHS replacement after 20 years of mediocre picture quality.

Which could be counter-attacked with Spider-man series, the Star-Wars series, the James Bond Series, etc...
See above for why Bond isn't a shoe-in and Fox categorically stated they weren't siding with Blu-ray. Given how hardware side founder members (excluding Sony/Matsushita/Philips who have most to gain via licensing thru patents) will happily support HD DVD I'd expect Fox to do likewise. It's still all in the balance, if Disney sides with HD DVD it could be all over but Toshiba would still need to solidify the support it announced today.
 
Anyone think all this support is a little more than premature? It seems much more like posturing than anything else.

DVD will easily be the reigning format through the end of 2006. The amount of movies sold for either HD-DVD or Blu-Ray will be trivial. So, if these players are made in 2005, the catalog is going to be incredibly small and most retailers will give only token support. This could cause more than a little hand-wrenching by consumers, retailers, and studios alike.

This is where Blu-Ray has a much stronger advantage. It doesn't matter how many movies are out. There will still be millions and millions of Blu-Ray players out there, courtesy of the PS3, Dell, & HP (among others). These drives will sell regardless and will be much more tempting if at the end of 2006, there are 10 million Blu-Ray players out there vs 1 million for HD-DVD.

Of course, Microsoft and/or Nintendo supporting HD-DVD could change the equation somewhat, but it is risky.
 
jedimike said:
I think we will notice it in the newer movies that are filmed completely with high-def digital cameras. All of the movies I have seen on HBO-HD are just upsampled anyway. So, although I'm excited about the new HD-DVD format, I know it will take a lot longer for consumers to adopt it. Expect prices to remain realatively high for an extended period of time.
this is certainly true, but with most of hollywood still using 35mm you are right in that it will probably take quite sometime for this to happen..

well, except for Star Wars and Robert Rodriguez movies... :P
 
cja said:
Blu-ray in some PS3s, yes, in all? If Sony are suicidal! 0% penetration for HDTV in Europe, only 40% in the US by end of 2008. Sony would be utterly barmy to make Blu-ray standard in PS3, the redundant tech would cost them a fortune, as with PS2, but DVD could play on normal TVs and there was a need for a VHS replacement after 20 years of mediocre picture quality.

If Blu-ray is not in every PS3 there is no point in putting it into the PS3 for gaming purposes. You are effectively saying that Video Game makers should not put any games on Blu-Ray or make any games that require Blu-Ray capacity.
 
As Pana said, I believe the only question is how "safe" Sony wants to be with its Hi-Def disk support. They can implement both if need be, and with their relatively later launch date for the PS3 they obviously have more time to contemplate what to do than Microsoft with the Xbox2.

There will be no "free ride" boost from either Blu-Ray or HD-DVD support in any console though. Perhaps with the hardcore maybe, but past each console's launch window the hi-def support is not going to figure as strongly as DVD support did at the PS2 launch, the market is just so much smaller and niche.
 
cja said:
Disney? Sure I read that Disney were likely to sign a deal with HD DVD. Of course none of these are exclusive contracts. Sony spent $300m of the $5bn it cost to "buy" MGM, the two investment banks and Comcast will put profitability over silly platform wars.

Who says that Blu-Ray will not bring profitability ?

Who says that the deal Comcast and Sony Pictures have regarding massive Sony Pictures + MGM content on Demand (VoD) won't bring profitability ?

Dell and HP are slaves to what the Taiwanese supply to 'em and the likes of Asus and Foxconn don't want Blu-ray and the huge licensing costs associated with it. Sure, there'll be a handful of token $3,000 Blu-ray machines early on but when it gets down to mass market Dell and HP aren't going to choose Blu-ray over core marketshare. Also the little point that Toshiba are quite a big notebook maker and NEC the biggest PC manufacturer in the worlds second largest economy.

So basically DELL and HP are slaves of small Taiwaneese manufatcurers while NEC and Toshiba are this dominat force in the PC industry and HD-DVD is triumphant with its ULTRA LOW BARGAIN licensing costs.

I am sorry, but last I checked DELL and HP were not this weak players in a market supposely dominated by Toshiba and NEC.

Blu-ray in some PS3s, yes, in all? If Sony are suicidal! 0% penetration for HDTV in Europe, only 40% in the US by end of 2008. Sony would be utterly barmy to make Blu-ray standard in PS3, the redundant tech would cost them a fortune, as with PS2

Single multi-function monolithic optical pick-up system (Blu-Ray, DVD and CD are supported by this system): they already have developed it, they might as well use it ;).

People called Sony suicidal for a 19,800 Yen PSP: well, the Japanese PSP surely is not launching at 39,800 Yen anymore.

I think they money they spend to put Blu-Ray ROM (Re-Writable would go in PSX 2) in PlayStation 3 will be useful to help the investment they have made on the Blu-Ray technology in general and on the MGM purchase as well as helping PlayStation 3 in terms of marketing hype and making use of a high-density format which PlayStation 3 games can take advantage of.
 
Dave Long said:
What a mess. Combine this with PSP movie formatting and my god... it's just stupid.

No lie. The least Sony could do is have the PS3 play UMD discs, even if they displayed in a window or something.
 
Deku Tree said:
If Blu-ray is not in every PS3 there is no point in putting it into the PS3 for gaming purposes. You are effectively saying that Video Game makers should not put any games on Blu-Ray or make any games that require Blu-Ray capacity.
Yes, I am saying just that. :) For gaming purposes I see no need for Blu-ray. Given the increased compression tech out there I expect all games to fit comfortably on a DVD-9. Only FMV whores will be disappointed. If needbe have another disc, it seems to be marketed as a plus in the movie business. I could make an argument that Blu-ray will be inferior to DVD-9 given the access and seek times for early BR models, that'll have to be put in some form of PS3, are likely to be slower than a 16x DVD model that could well find its way into Xenon, for example.

Panajev2001a said:
Who says that Blu-Ray will not bring profitability ?

Who says that the deal Comcast and Sony Pictures have regarding massive Sony Pictures + MGM content on Demand (VoD) won't bring profitability ?
But their job is to maximise profitability, going Blu-ray only may not do that for the partners in the MGM deal.

So basically DELL and HP are slaves of small Taiwaneese manufatcurers while NEC and Toshiba are this dominat force in the PC industry and HD-DVD is triumphant with its ULTRA LOW BARGAIN licensing costs.
"Spokesman Koichiro Katsurayama said the company would move production to Chinese plants run by Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. and Asustek Computer Inc, and cease production in Japan, where half of its current PS2 output is based."
Link

Foxconn is the trading name for Hon Hai. So all PS2s are made by those two small companies, huh! The behemoth Sony Electronics will be glad to hear this after SCEI gave these two "small Taiwanese manufacturers" contracts to make all those PS2s on the Chinese mainland!

Dell and HP do rely on component suppliers as are Sony.

Single multi-function monolithic optical pick-up system (Blu-Ray, DVD and CD are supported by this system): they already have developed it, they might as well use it ;).

People called Sony suicidal for a 19,800 Yen PSP: well, the Japanese PSP surely is not launching at 39,800 Yen anymore.
The thing hasn't been released yet, it may be suicidal and how many of those machines are going to be available at 19,800 Yen (excluding tax), and how many will be the 25,000 Yen value (contend it's rip-off) packs?

I think they money they spend to put Blu-Ray ROM (Re-Writable would go in PSX 2) in PlayStation 3 will be useful to help the investment they have made on the Blu-Ray technology in general and on the MGM purchase as well as helping PlayStation 3 in terms of marketing hype and making use of a high-density format which PlayStation 3 games can take advantage of.
A PSX2? I don't see any way they'll use the PSX name again after the embarrassment of the first botched model.
 
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