Uh-Oh, HD-DVD lands 4 movie studios support for holiday 2005
- Thread starter sonycowboy
- Start date
sonycowboy
Member
borghe said:
So, are these members working on HD-DVD (the opponent of Blu-Ray, not the next generation "generic" High Definition DVD)?
Hitachi, Ltd.
LG Electronics Inc.
Matsushita Electric Industrial Co., Ltd.
Mitsubishi Electric Corporation
Pioneer Corporation
Royal Philips Electronics
Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.
Sharp Corporation
Sony Corporation
TDK Corporation
Thomson Multimedia
We're probably splitting hairs here, but I think you're confusing the role of the DVD forum with the role of the technology presenters. They are both using the term "HD DVD" but they aren't talking about the same thing. If Blu-Ray is accepted, it would also be referred to as "HD DVD" by many.
gollumsluvslave
Member
Borghe:-
if DRM was meaningless, studios and companies wouldn't be putting so much research dollars into it. It will hold sway with the studios, who will look at the idea that average joe bloggs, who might normally 'copy' a CD, will not find it worth the hassle of getting by strong DRM.
Obviously hacker groups that release movies and such will get past it eventually, but it's still a factor. The vast majority of piracy is still done by the average consumer. (P2P figures still only average under 12% penetration - UK was 7% last year)
Of course due to AACS LA - http://www.aacsla.com it's entirely possible that HD-DVD and Blu-ray will utilise the same DRM - it's looking increasingly likely that this will happen.
if DRM was meaningless, studios and companies wouldn't be putting so much research dollars into it. It will hold sway with the studios, who will look at the idea that average joe bloggs, who might normally 'copy' a CD, will not find it worth the hassle of getting by strong DRM.
Obviously hacker groups that release movies and such will get past it eventually, but it's still a factor. The vast majority of piracy is still done by the average consumer. (P2P figures still only average under 12% penetration - UK was 7% last year)
Of course due to AACS LA - http://www.aacsla.com it's entirely possible that HD-DVD and Blu-ray will utilise the same DRM - it's looking increasingly likely that this will happen.
HD-DVD is being drafted and created by the DVD Forum and its members. Blue-ray, which is NOT HD-DVD, is being drafted and created by the Blue-ray Group and its members.sonycowboy said:
When you see the news talking about HD-DVD, they are talking about the DVD Forum, the AOD disc, and the features the forum is voting on. There is only one HD-DVD.
You are right in that people might end up calling blueray HD-DVD anyway, but it isn't regardless.
But to answer your question, yes. The exact same companies responsible for DVD are working to create HD-DVD.. though if you look at that quote that I posted it should be more than obvious that companies who are also apart of the Blue-ray committee are doing their best to hold up the creation of HD-DVD.. :\
Those same assholes were the ones who voted down AOD adoption earlier this year and among the ones who voted down AOD adoption last year. At this point though it has become pointless. The DVD Forum sees that Blue ray is launching next year, so each meeting vote basically turns into the non-Blue ray members voting stuff through and the blue-ray members voting against it with Philips and Sony (the main blue-ray heads) abstaining from votes.
one only has to look at history.... the only copy protection that has ever worked was the record LP. because their was physically no way to copy it until tape recorders became affordable decades later.gollumsluvslave said:
Macrovision = hacked
CSS = hacked
iTunes = hacked
MS DRM = hacked
PSX/PS2 = hacked
XBox = hacked
GCN = hacked
8/16-bit consoles = hacked
DVDAudio = hacked
see where I am going.. it might not be hacked at launch (DVD wasn't), but within a relatively short time, it will be hacked. no matter how many millions of dollars companies sink into this stuff, it just can't compete with the billions of relative dollars in time that hackers are willing or able to sink into it.
and I remember when DeCSS first hit.. man.. what a pain. First you would have to run DeCSS to break CSS and copy the files down, and by that time most movies were RDSL meaning you would have to strip special features and/or recompress the movie, and then burn it off to a $400 burner with $5 media.. all when you could just pick the movie up on first week for $18.
and then what happened. people started creating programs where you click a button and it does everything I just wrote.. and media dropped to 40¢ a disc.
DRM is pointless.. it will only protect the media in the early adopter days.. but once it hits mass market unquestionably the DRM will already be broken by then and copying the movies will be as trivial as copying DVDs is now.
gollumsluvslave
Member
Borghe:-
Because it's trivial to you and me, doesn't mean it's trivial to the average DVD consumer. Hacker releases generally get moved about on P2P.
I know less people that WOULD be able to copy a DVD or download some films off BitTorrent, than can and do.
Of course more people are educating themselves on this, but average joes - nope. Hell, my mum still can't operate the VCR :lol :lol
Because it's trivial to you and me, doesn't mean it's trivial to the average DVD consumer. Hacker releases generally get moved about on P2P.
I know less people that WOULD be able to copy a DVD or download some films off BitTorrent, than can and do.
Of course more people are educating themselves on this, but average joes - nope. Hell, my mum still can't operate the VCR :lol :lol
borghe said:
True. But, I don't understand why they don't build the security physically into the disc. For instance, an inner ring that is only present and readable on commercially produced discs. This inner ring is physically only possible at manufacture. If the disc has any copy protection at all, all hardware devices (movie players and PC drives) are forced to check the inner ring for a key.
All blank media for PC backup/etc. could not be produced with an inner ring.
The organization in charge of the media won't release licenses to build discs or players to any company whose products don't adhere closely to this checking.
Of course, drives will be released and their BIOS's will be hacked to skip around the ring check. Hacker groups will release patches, etc. However, this is an order of magnitude more difficult to get around than a simple software code like DVD. My Mom knows how to use DVD Shrink.
Don't PS2 discs have something like this? I would think for next generation media it would be the bare minimum required - at least at launch.
gollumsluvslave
Member
kaching:-
Thank you! Summed up my point perfectly.
Thank you! Summed up my point perfectly.
Agent Icebeezy
Welcome beautful toddler, Madison Elizabeth, to the horde!
garrickk said:
I've always thought Sony kinda left it alone for installed base. PS1 or PS2 disc can be copied with any program. Stick an Xbox disc in your PC drive and you see a few Jpegs or TXT files, depending on the game
Agent Icebeezy said:
Yes, the data is not encrypted. But, I think there is an inner ring present on the discs that can't be copied. It's not game data, but a security strip. I thought I saw pirated blank discs being sold somewhere that had these inner rings. You could copy a game onto them and play the game in any PS1/2.
I was saying that I believe some sort of physical copy protection will be present on next generation media. Present in all commercially produced media, not present on writeable media.
So, next generation discs would have some sort of hardware copy protection (inner ring of data, etc.) and software DRM. Take the two current modes of protection and double them up.
Oh dear. 1080p is precisely twice the resolution of 1080i. It has twice the number of dots per field. 1920x1080, 60 times per second. 1080i is 1920x540, 60 times per second.
I would guess that for TV it wouldn't matter, as it would likely be recorded in 1080i. But for movies, they would be encoded similarly to now, with the ability to recreate the original 1080p movie frames from the 1080i fields.
As for comments about PS3 being used as a trojan horse. Maybe, but just because PS2 is the best selling DVD player out there, doesn't mean its used as a DVD player in more homes than any other player.
So just because there are PS3s out there, doesn't mean they'll be used for Bluray movies. Its almost the wrong crowd. Videophiles will buy a dedicated player, and Sony will want to sell them one. PS3 only works when its mainstream, and I don't know if HD DVD will be mainstream in PS3s lifetime.
If they carry on like this, it'll be SACD Vs DVD-Audio all over again. Result? - noone gives a shit about either format.
yes and no.. it is twice the resolution in an individual field, but the human eye is only capable of a detecting a temporal resolution of about 15-20 flashes per second. anything beyond that is perceived as solid light. this comes into play with interlaced vs. progressive that basically we see a 1080i picture as 1920x1080, not 1920x540, because the screen is updating both fields at a rate faster than our eyes can register. So we see a 1080i frame as 1920x1080 and a 1080p frame as 1920x1080, where is the dramatic resolution increase? Look up temporal resolution, visual acuity, etc.mrklaw said:
Now I'm not saying there isn't a visual improvement.. Eliminating stair stepping, moire patterns, shimmering, color aliasing, etc certainly increases the visual quality of the picture, but this "twice the resolution" stuff is nonsense.. we don't see that way.
is it possible to agree with something 1000%? if it is, that's how much I agree with this.. and I bag on sony so much because this is now the second time they have done this... they have a perfect example sitting in front of them on what segmenting the market can do for a new format, and here they are at it again... thanks sony. first you killed of high-res audio, and now you are killing off HD home video... :\mrklaw said:
borghe, you continue to undermine your position by constantly attempting to portray the situation as an industry schism solely orchestrated by Sony. No credit goes to the other 8 or so BRD founding members who have invested as significantly in the project as well. Meanwhile, there's a much smaller founding group on the AOD/HDDVD side consisting of only Toshiba and NEC and neither of them get blamed for their part in forcing the schism.
And, again, I'd point out that the success/failure of BRD or HD-DVD depends on more than just pre-recorded content. The SACD/DVD-Audio comparison would be apt if ALL we were talking about here were formats intended to deliver pre-recorded content only. In that case, I'd agree that the outcome would probably be similar - too much confusion for the average consumer investigating competing formats that seem to only offer incremental improvements would probably just drive them away in most cases. But BRD and HD-DVD are not just about pre-recorded content and the potential they offer over the state of DVD today is much greater than simply higher def pre-recorded content. Since their success does not solely rely on pre-recorded content, it's possible for their to be a significantly different outcome than the one seen with SACD/DVD-Audio.
And, again, I'd point out that the success/failure of BRD or HD-DVD depends on more than just pre-recorded content. The SACD/DVD-Audio comparison would be apt if ALL we were talking about here were formats intended to deliver pre-recorded content only. In that case, I'd agree that the outcome would probably be similar - too much confusion for the average consumer investigating competing formats that seem to only offer incremental improvements would probably just drive them away in most cases. But BRD and HD-DVD are not just about pre-recorded content and the potential they offer over the state of DVD today is much greater than simply higher def pre-recorded content. Since their success does not solely rely on pre-recorded content, it's possible for their to be a significantly different outcome than the one seen with SACD/DVD-Audio.
So again i ask-is it safe to purchase a DVD recorder or not? I want atleast a good 2 years out of it. Will I be able to easily buy Movies and blank recordable media for my recorder before these new formats possibly takeover?
An answer would be appreciated since I'm probably buying the recorder sometime today.
An answer would be appreciated since I'm probably buying the recorder sometime today.
My "attacking" of Sony comes from this.
The DVD Forum was formed, I believe, 11 years ago (1993). It was created to standardize on a then next-generation format to deliver pre-recorded audio and video to the home. Sony was a part of this forum and was a part of the development of the technology and standards.
So the DVD Forum gets DVD-Video and DVD-ROM out the door and moves on to their next project.. DVD-Audio. Well, Sony comes along and develops SACD DESPITE the fact that the DVD Forum had already begun work on DVD-Audio slightly before Sony went to work on SACD.
And it is the same thing here. Sony is going ahead and working on Blue-ray despite the fact that the DVD Forum had begun drafting HD-DVD since before Blue-ray was on the drawing boards.
My question is, why is Sony even on the DVD Forum anymore? All they do is either get their partners from SACD or Blue-ray to vote no or abstain from votes on most resolutions, they contribute absolutely nothing to the progress of the various technologies, and go ahead and work on creating the own technology.
My anger comes from the fact that this doesn't help the consumer by segmenting the market.
So you ask why am I not like this with the DVD Forum? It's easy really.. Because no single steering committee member holds more weight than any other member. Because they are a singular group working on a singular product and have been doing so for 11 years. Sony on the other hand, despite being a member of this group, has gone on to create products directly competing with what this other body of companies is working on. BRD may be comprised of multiple companies, but the leader and patent holder is unquestionably Sony.
I have nothing against Sony. They make great products. I have nothing against Blue-ray. It is really cool technology. What I have something against is Sony's absolute insistance on circumventing a standards organization for no other reason than a bigger share of the licensing pot. There is absolutely no reason for them to have essentially broken away from the DVD Forum yet they did so (even though not really).
And the only result thus far is that no fledgling format has been able to take off as a result.
So no, you are right. It isn't directly Sony's fault that DVDA/SACD is failing.. but it would almost certainly be better had Sony just stuck with the DVD Forum and there was only one high-res audio format.. and I believe the same thing will happen with HD video.
If I am wrong, and if universal players are released out of the gate and the two formats have no impact on adoption of the higher resolution video, then everything I say here is recinded. I just don't see that happening. I see the consumer being overwhelmed and confused and both formats languishing for years as consumers stay with their "standardized" DVDs.
The DVD Forum was formed, I believe, 11 years ago (1993). It was created to standardize on a then next-generation format to deliver pre-recorded audio and video to the home. Sony was a part of this forum and was a part of the development of the technology and standards.
So the DVD Forum gets DVD-Video and DVD-ROM out the door and moves on to their next project.. DVD-Audio. Well, Sony comes along and develops SACD DESPITE the fact that the DVD Forum had already begun work on DVD-Audio slightly before Sony went to work on SACD.
And it is the same thing here. Sony is going ahead and working on Blue-ray despite the fact that the DVD Forum had begun drafting HD-DVD since before Blue-ray was on the drawing boards.
My question is, why is Sony even on the DVD Forum anymore? All they do is either get their partners from SACD or Blue-ray to vote no or abstain from votes on most resolutions, they contribute absolutely nothing to the progress of the various technologies, and go ahead and work on creating the own technology.
My anger comes from the fact that this doesn't help the consumer by segmenting the market.
So you ask why am I not like this with the DVD Forum? It's easy really.. Because no single steering committee member holds more weight than any other member. Because they are a singular group working on a singular product and have been doing so for 11 years. Sony on the other hand, despite being a member of this group, has gone on to create products directly competing with what this other body of companies is working on. BRD may be comprised of multiple companies, but the leader and patent holder is unquestionably Sony.
I have nothing against Sony. They make great products. I have nothing against Blue-ray. It is really cool technology. What I have something against is Sony's absolute insistance on circumventing a standards organization for no other reason than a bigger share of the licensing pot. There is absolutely no reason for them to have essentially broken away from the DVD Forum yet they did so (even though not really).
And the only result thus far is that no fledgling format has been able to take off as a result.
So no, you are right. It isn't directly Sony's fault that DVDA/SACD is failing.. but it would almost certainly be better had Sony just stuck with the DVD Forum and there was only one high-res audio format.. and I believe the same thing will happen with HD video.
If I am wrong, and if universal players are released out of the gate and the two formats have no impact on adoption of the higher resolution video, then everything I say here is recinded. I just don't see that happening. I see the consumer being overwhelmed and confused and both formats languishing for years as consumers stay with their "standardized" DVDs.
Angelus - I'd say its safe in the sense that DVD is not going anywhere soon. Pre-recorded DVD movies will continue to be produced for years to come.
However, I've stayed away from the current crop of set-top DVD recorders because the lot of them seem over-priced while being relatively unrefined in areas of interface and feature support yet. The tricky aspect of DVD recording is which format does the DVD recorder support, being that there's like 5 of them. Many new PC DVD recordable drives are supporting all of the recordable/rewritable formats at this point, but the set-top DVD recorders lag behind, so you may be confined to buying a certain kind of DVD recordable media, depending on which device you buy. If you're planning to buy a set-top DVD recorder, I'd suggest waiting until there are units that can record to any recordable DVD format (-R, +R, -RW, +RW, -RAM) which will also help justify their generally high cost right now.
However, I've stayed away from the current crop of set-top DVD recorders because the lot of them seem over-priced while being relatively unrefined in areas of interface and feature support yet. The tricky aspect of DVD recording is which format does the DVD recorder support, being that there's like 5 of them. Many new PC DVD recordable drives are supporting all of the recordable/rewritable formats at this point, but the set-top DVD recorders lag behind, so you may be confined to buying a certain kind of DVD recordable media, depending on which device you buy. If you're planning to buy a set-top DVD recorder, I'd suggest waiting until there are units that can record to any recordable DVD format (-R, +R, -RW, +RW, -RAM) which will also help justify their generally high cost right now.
Ahh,finally a reply.
Kaching,thanks for the input.
Heres the machine I plan to purchase today.
http://www.bestbuy.com/site/olspage...ductCategoryId=pcmcat13900050019&type=product
I'm not looking for one that has all the bells and whistles,just a machine that'll play my VCD and SVCD movies,Mp3 ready,etc.and record tv shows and do it with good recording quality.
I did some reading up on the model by checking out consumers reviews,most all of them gave it a thumbs up. Some claim that the machine has compatibility issues with certain brand DVD disks,we'll see how that turns out I suppose.
Luckily Best Best has a return policy. And for the price of the recorder its too sexy to pass up at the moment.
Thanks again. Its always good to get another view on the DVD recorder market.
Kaching,thanks for the input.
Heres the machine I plan to purchase today.
http://www.bestbuy.com/site/olspage...ductCategoryId=pcmcat13900050019&type=product
I'm not looking for one that has all the bells and whistles,just a machine that'll play my VCD and SVCD movies,Mp3 ready,etc.and record tv shows and do it with good recording quality.
I did some reading up on the model by checking out consumers reviews,most all of them gave it a thumbs up. Some claim that the machine has compatibility issues with certain brand DVD disks,we'll see how that turns out I suppose.
Luckily Best Best has a return policy. And for the price of the recorder its too sexy to pass up at the moment.
Thanks again. Its always good to get another view on the DVD recorder market.
borghe, you make a lot of great points. And, we would have a new high-resolution format sooner if everyone was on the same page.
That said, I'm very happy that there are two competing formats. I consider format competition every bit as important as content competition.
They'll compete (or already did) on everything from codecs supported, manufacturing efficiencey, possibly lower licensing fees (to the hardware manufacturers most importantly than media manufacturers), packaging, data storage techniques, minimum data transfer speeds, maybe pushing re-writeable media for PC's sooner, menu/media control standards, customer DRM flexibility, etc.
Let them fight it all out. Customers may have to wait longer, or may get screwed in the process, or have to buy multiple players. But, I'll always take my chances with at least SOME competition anyway.
Then, if one format is losing very badly, maybe it will be cracked wide open and becomes as easy to manipulate and generate my own content for as DVD. Should be interesting.
That said, I'm very happy that there are two competing formats. I consider format competition every bit as important as content competition.
They'll compete (or already did) on everything from codecs supported, manufacturing efficiencey, possibly lower licensing fees (to the hardware manufacturers most importantly than media manufacturers), packaging, data storage techniques, minimum data transfer speeds, maybe pushing re-writeable media for PC's sooner, menu/media control standards, customer DRM flexibility, etc.
Let them fight it all out. Customers may have to wait longer, or may get screwed in the process, or have to buy multiple players. But, I'll always take my chances with at least SOME competition anyway.
Then, if one format is losing very badly, maybe it will be cracked wide open and becomes as easy to manipulate and generate my own content for as DVD. Should be interesting.
jedimike said:
Developers are already talking about how during the course of the PS2, they have went from needing just a DVD5 disc to now easily filling up DVD9 discs. In the next generation with bigger, better textures, more sound, bigger production, etc, etc, there is going to be a point where more than one DVD9 will be needed...and when that happens, Blu-Ray. And as the console ages and developers start putting big things into games and learning the system allowing them to add even more textures, graphics, code, sound, etc, more and more games will use Blu-Ray regularly.
Dave
All this proves is that companies are more interested in protecting their patents and Intellectual Property than actually delivering something they think will last and provide value to consumers.
Philips showed just how much you can make from CD patents, so everyone wants a piece of the game.
Commonsense doesn't come into it.
Philips showed just how much you can make from CD patents, so everyone wants a piece of the game.
Commonsense doesn't come into it.
garrickk said:
Uh... competition in terms of multiple formats with video game systems is one thing. When it comes down to home audio/video competing formats destroys the market.
Why do you think CD's are still so dominate instead of DVD-A? Or SACD? Because there are two competing high-end audio formats with each of them having some, but not all, of the labels involved. If Sony didn't come out an make SACD, and stuck with the DVD Forum in supporting one STANDARD (DVD-A), chances are CDs would be headed the way of analog or VHS in favor of a high-resolution format. But Sony went off and made SACD, splintered the market, and there's a format war with only the most hardcore audiophiles even aware that there is such a thing beyond CDs.
Sony is doing the exact same thing with Blue-Ray.
Look at DVD. The format did not really take off until every major studio was committed to it. That wasn't until nearly three years into its life.
With Blue-Ray having some of the studios, and HD-DVD having the rest, consumers won't bite. High-end people will, but until there is one format where someone can buy any movie they want on, it won't take off. The average consumer will walk into the electronics store and the sales person will tell them that with this player you can only get these movies while this player will only play those movies. People will stick with regular DVD until they don't have to worry about bullshit like that.
Blue-Ray will end up with Sony and MGM on it, and that's it.
Fox and Buena Vista will go where the rest of the studios go, as will Dreamworks. Both Fox and BV got seriously burned in terms of money and perception with Divx and they don't want to make that mistake again.
You'll see Fox, Buena Vista, Dreamworks, Universal, Warner, New Line, and Paramount on HD DVD by this time next year.
stop blaming Sony for SACD. Its just as much philips fault, as its built upon Philips CD patents, and Philips is a key partner.
And I personally think hidef audio failed mostly due to lack of interest from a public happy with CDs. They already deliver all the convenience, and enough quality for most people.
Quite possibly the same will happen with hidef video. I know I'd buy it, but I'm not a normal person and I'm willing to spend money on good quality video. But while I rebought many of my VHS tapes on DVD, I don't plan on rebuying HD versions of anything other than my absolute favourites, because DVD is a good baseline.
And I personally think hidef audio failed mostly due to lack of interest from a public happy with CDs. They already deliver all the convenience, and enough quality for most people.
Quite possibly the same will happen with hidef video. I know I'd buy it, but I'm not a normal person and I'm willing to spend money on good quality video. But while I rebought many of my VHS tapes on DVD, I don't plan on rebuying HD versions of anything other than my absolute favourites, because DVD is a good baseline.
Nick Laslett
Member
The perception is that the DVD format is a success.
This is true for the Movie studios, it is true for the Consumer.
But for the big Japanese CE manufactures like Panasonic & Sony this is not the case.
Toshiba, NEC & Warner make the most money out of the format because of their greater share of the IP pie.
Unlike CD or VHS. The price of DVD hardware dropped so quickly that the CE manufactures did not make the sort of return on there investment that they need to be profitable. The DVD licenses we handed out like candy by the DVD Forum and the other far eastern CE manufactures from China, South Korea and Taiwan joined the DVD game and destroyed the margin on equipment. For people like Sony, Philips and Panasonic there has been no profit in the mass market DVD business since 1999.
Because Toshiba and NEC make more money out of the IP they don't care about the competition on Hardware, the more licenses the better.
This is why Blu-Ray is so important to Sony, Philips & Panasonic. They make no money from DVD hardware and don't see any point in sustaining the business. HD-DVD will just continue the situation with an unfair split of IP revenue. This is why many more CE manufactures have joined the Blu-Ray group.
It will be interesting to see if Sony are willing to sacrifice Columbia Pictures on the altar of Blu-Ray, by releasing their Blu-Ray roms at a much lower price point to the competition and destroying the studio's profits.
Unlike last time with Betamax & VHS, the presence of PCs and Games consoles means the format battle involves more than just movie releases.
This is true for the Movie studios, it is true for the Consumer.
But for the big Japanese CE manufactures like Panasonic & Sony this is not the case.
Toshiba, NEC & Warner make the most money out of the format because of their greater share of the IP pie.
Unlike CD or VHS. The price of DVD hardware dropped so quickly that the CE manufactures did not make the sort of return on there investment that they need to be profitable. The DVD licenses we handed out like candy by the DVD Forum and the other far eastern CE manufactures from China, South Korea and Taiwan joined the DVD game and destroyed the margin on equipment. For people like Sony, Philips and Panasonic there has been no profit in the mass market DVD business since 1999.
Because Toshiba and NEC make more money out of the IP they don't care about the competition on Hardware, the more licenses the better.
This is why Blu-Ray is so important to Sony, Philips & Panasonic. They make no money from DVD hardware and don't see any point in sustaining the business. HD-DVD will just continue the situation with an unfair split of IP revenue. This is why many more CE manufactures have joined the Blu-Ray group.
It will be interesting to see if Sony are willing to sacrifice Columbia Pictures on the altar of Blu-Ray, by releasing their Blu-Ray roms at a much lower price point to the competition and destroying the studio's profits.
Unlike last time with Betamax & VHS, the presence of PCs and Games consoles means the format battle involves more than just movie releases.
Panajev2001a
GAF's Pleasant Genius
I would not be so sure about it
.I think each camp might have some exclusive studios, but so far in the HD-DVD camp the recent announcement did not offer exclusivity as it said that those companies were still working with the Blu-Ray group and were nto committing themselves exclusively to HD-DVD.
To me, both formats are coming way too soon. DVD is mega profitable and while I'm not saying companies should forever stick with DVD...look at the CD, still the *standerd* for music. There are tons of movies that can benifit from going high definition, but there's also alot that it just don't make sense to...alot of which are some of the highest selling DVD categories (TV series, cartoons, stand up, Japanese anime, foreign, etc.). Lest not forget that DVD is quite satisfactory to most people just as people are *still* satisfied with good ol' CD's. Do you think people are gonna choose to buy a $30 BR of a new release comedy over a $20 DVD??? An Epic movie like Ben Hur, maybe, but everyday new releases? No, they're gonna settle for DVD. Okay, so let's factor in HDTV, people are gonna want to trick out thier movies too right...maybe...but HDTV would have to grow a heck of alot...that day is coming, but I still don't see it for some time. It's good that BR & HD-DVD are closer to market in that sense...so that people can actually have something to "show off" their new HDTV sets, but I think by the time HDTV hits the stride it needs to there will be a newer, better format on it's way...something beyond HD-DVD & BR. Sorry, but I veiw these blu-ray formats as LD's & VCD's...they are better than the current standerd, but the market isn't ready for them, and despite what these major studios and electronic giants think, the retailers/consumers decides this one, and with the (world) economy the way it is and as strong as DVD (still) is, HD-DVD & BR are stop-gap's for the next movie standerd IMO!
In the mean time, I think it's something to note that a way cheaper solution in compression on *existing* DVD's for higher definition movies is better than an all new format (or should we say 2 competiting formats) already.
Games however...They're gonna need faster, higher capacity formats like HD-DVD & BR. Don't dispute this, we need something faster or load times are gonna be worse, processors are gonna fry and discs are gonna spin so fast they're gonna melt. And we also need higher capacity discs 'cos there's gonna be more voice work in games (Hollywood is attaching itself to games more and more), as well is higher mathematics, higher polygon models, more advanced textures and lighting and tons of other things that will make DVD sorta past it's time with games.
I see HD-DVD being in Xenon and BR in PS3 of course, so this escalates the format wars even moreso. HD-DVD will be out first in a major product before BR is, this puts pressure on Sony in not only the console front, but also the movie format war. Microsoft isn't really in the possition of an entertainment giant capacity like Sony is, but this could go either way. Hollywood studios may rather wanna back an American company like MS (with HD-DVD in Xenon) who doesn't have their hand in the cookie jar like Sony does with Columbia/TriStar/MGM. But this could also go Sony's dirrection too 'cos they're known as an all entertainment company with games, music & movies under their belt unlike MS...plus since the BR format (in PS3) will be coming out later to maybe a more accepting HD format consumer...who knows? I give MS the advantage here 'cos not only will Xenon be launching sooner giving HD-DVD a sorta leg up on BR but also 'cos MS isn't really attached to the format like Sony is to BR...Sony has a way of trying to force standerds to the point where it hurts them...MS isn't gonna try to force it...if there's any kind of consumer acceptance of a new HD disc format then I'd say HD-DVD being in Xenon months before PS3 hits with more Hollywood content gives them that advantage.
But then you gotta wonder about this format war and factor in Nintendo. Let's say Sanyo/Toshiba/NEC want the format to be big in Japan (they'd be crazy not to want this actually) as well the West. Xenon may have better chances in Japan than X-BOX, but way better still would be Nintendo's next system. The HD-DVD "group" is probably already offering HD-DVD to MS for cheaper in order to get it into a major electronic's product before PS3 hits, but what about in the Japanese home front? Having the format in both Xenon & Nintendo's Revolution sorta leaves Sony the oddman out. Not only when it comes to the HD movie format war, but also in the gaming front. This would make ports between Revolution & Xenon easier for publishers...again...leaving Sony the odd man out there, especially if they go for a complicated development environment again in order to try to prevent ports again.
I've been saying this for a while now...Sony is due for a humbling. They're taking alot of risks with thier movement into an all Sony "future". The PlayStation brand, PSP, UMD, BR, The Cell, their new network, obtaining MGM...if one or two of these things falter they're gonna be hurtin' for certain. UMD is already gonna have some trouble with WB's new mini-DVD push next year. Despite the naysayers DS will be nice distraction from PSP, and before PSP hits any kind of stride Nintendo will have the a newer, cheaper, more durable GameBoy ready to compete. PSP is already being sold at big losses, and speaking of distractions, with Sony being busy with two markets (console & portable) now that leaves them wide open for mistakes (see: Nintendo). Then if MS & Nintendo both have HD-DVD systems, where does that leave their BR push...either way, they can't use BR as a big selling point for PS3 like they did DVD in PS2...and to top it off what ever losses are taken on the BR front are gonna be taken by Sony, unlike Nintendo & MS (if they both go with HD-DVD) who will likely be offered the format at a discount in order to compete with BR, and if the BR format fails as a movie format then it's no skin off MS & Nintendo's teeth since they don't have their hand in movies like Sony does.
I know I'm painting a cryptic outlook for Sony, and there's a couple of if's there, but I see the only way of them going down in dominance is by making mistakes...and those mistakes being having too too much to handle and taking too many risks to do so.
In the mean time, I think it's something to note that a way cheaper solution in compression on *existing* DVD's for higher definition movies is better than an all new format (or should we say 2 competiting formats) already.
Games however...They're gonna need faster, higher capacity formats like HD-DVD & BR. Don't dispute this, we need something faster or load times are gonna be worse, processors are gonna fry and discs are gonna spin so fast they're gonna melt. And we also need higher capacity discs 'cos there's gonna be more voice work in games (Hollywood is attaching itself to games more and more), as well is higher mathematics, higher polygon models, more advanced textures and lighting and tons of other things that will make DVD sorta past it's time with games.
I see HD-DVD being in Xenon and BR in PS3 of course, so this escalates the format wars even moreso. HD-DVD will be out first in a major product before BR is, this puts pressure on Sony in not only the console front, but also the movie format war. Microsoft isn't really in the possition of an entertainment giant capacity like Sony is, but this could go either way. Hollywood studios may rather wanna back an American company like MS (with HD-DVD in Xenon) who doesn't have their hand in the cookie jar like Sony does with Columbia/TriStar/MGM. But this could also go Sony's dirrection too 'cos they're known as an all entertainment company with games, music & movies under their belt unlike MS...plus since the BR format (in PS3) will be coming out later to maybe a more accepting HD format consumer...who knows? I give MS the advantage here 'cos not only will Xenon be launching sooner giving HD-DVD a sorta leg up on BR but also 'cos MS isn't really attached to the format like Sony is to BR...Sony has a way of trying to force standerds to the point where it hurts them...MS isn't gonna try to force it...if there's any kind of consumer acceptance of a new HD disc format then I'd say HD-DVD being in Xenon months before PS3 hits with more Hollywood content gives them that advantage.
But then you gotta wonder about this format war and factor in Nintendo. Let's say Sanyo/Toshiba/NEC want the format to be big in Japan (they'd be crazy not to want this actually) as well the West. Xenon may have better chances in Japan than X-BOX, but way better still would be Nintendo's next system. The HD-DVD "group" is probably already offering HD-DVD to MS for cheaper in order to get it into a major electronic's product before PS3 hits, but what about in the Japanese home front? Having the format in both Xenon & Nintendo's Revolution sorta leaves Sony the oddman out. Not only when it comes to the HD movie format war, but also in the gaming front. This would make ports between Revolution & Xenon easier for publishers...again...leaving Sony the odd man out there, especially if they go for a complicated development environment again in order to try to prevent ports again.
I've been saying this for a while now...Sony is due for a humbling. They're taking alot of risks with thier movement into an all Sony "future". The PlayStation brand, PSP, UMD, BR, The Cell, their new network, obtaining MGM...if one or two of these things falter they're gonna be hurtin' for certain. UMD is already gonna have some trouble with WB's new mini-DVD push next year. Despite the naysayers DS will be nice distraction from PSP, and before PSP hits any kind of stride Nintendo will have the a newer, cheaper, more durable GameBoy ready to compete. PSP is already being sold at big losses, and speaking of distractions, with Sony being busy with two markets (console & portable) now that leaves them wide open for mistakes (see: Nintendo). Then if MS & Nintendo both have HD-DVD systems, where does that leave their BR push...either way, they can't use BR as a big selling point for PS3 like they did DVD in PS2...and to top it off what ever losses are taken on the BR front are gonna be taken by Sony, unlike Nintendo & MS (if they both go with HD-DVD) who will likely be offered the format at a discount in order to compete with BR, and if the BR format fails as a movie format then it's no skin off MS & Nintendo's teeth since they don't have their hand in movies like Sony does.
I know I'm painting a cryptic outlook for Sony, and there's a couple of if's there, but I see the only way of them going down in dominance is by making mistakes...and those mistakes being having too too much to handle and taking too many risks to do so.
mrklaw makes a good point about the PS3 not being the ultimate vehicle for BR. But his other point about the relevance to this coming generation gets at what I was saying before.
I don't think an HD-DVD format will be important until HDTVs take off. Penetration is marginal, which means there won't be a huge amount of demand for new players yet. DVD players and media will own the market probably for the entire gen. However, I don't think Sony cares about the short-term gains, I think they just want to establish the format by getting it into houses. 100M PS3s may not get used as BR players, but should HDTVs finally take off mid-stream, guess who'll have the bigger installed userbase to sell to? And you know Sony is shameless about pushing their properties. With the HD-DVD market being marginal to nonexistent for the next few years, I think Sony and BR will emerge with the upperhand. Half the hurdle in selling movies is getting players installed in homes.
My only hope is that if the market does get segmented, that they have multipurpose players that can take both formats. Otherwise, I hope BR wins out and AOD dies off. BR just plain offers more. It's not a big deal between the two formats, but then again, the format isn't really useful right now, and won't gain popularity for many moons, so what few extra features they are, the better. Whatever the case may be, BR should have a much brighter future than UMD, which is DOA IMO. PEACE.
I don't think an HD-DVD format will be important until HDTVs take off. Penetration is marginal, which means there won't be a huge amount of demand for new players yet. DVD players and media will own the market probably for the entire gen. However, I don't think Sony cares about the short-term gains, I think they just want to establish the format by getting it into houses. 100M PS3s may not get used as BR players, but should HDTVs finally take off mid-stream, guess who'll have the bigger installed userbase to sell to? And you know Sony is shameless about pushing their properties. With the HD-DVD market being marginal to nonexistent for the next few years, I think Sony and BR will emerge with the upperhand. Half the hurdle in selling movies is getting players installed in homes.
My only hope is that if the market does get segmented, that they have multipurpose players that can take both formats. Otherwise, I hope BR wins out and AOD dies off. BR just plain offers more. It's not a big deal between the two formats, but then again, the format isn't really useful right now, and won't gain popularity for many moons, so what few extra features they are, the better. Whatever the case may be, BR should have a much brighter future than UMD, which is DOA IMO. PEACE.
1995, actually, and it specifically says in the forum's mission and charter that "Forum Members are not required to support the DVD Format to the exclusion of other formats."borghe said:
The act of pursuing a separate format is not in and of itself the cause of either format's failure. We all know that Sony has been at the losing end of format wars before, failing to take the competing format down with them. Sony didn't sabotage DVD-Audio, the rest of the forum failed to make the case for DVD-A to consumers and the rest of the industry.
And I hope you're not going to try to blame Sony for the proliferation of no less than 5 recordable/rewritable DVD formats where we *again* see the DVD forum simply failing to make the case for the formats they specifically ratified.
Notably, recordable/rewritable DVD is succeeding better than SACD/DVD-A in spite of worse segmentation than SACD/DVD-A...
Source? From what I've seen, Sony and partners have work on blue-laser media dating back at least to 1999 and I'm pretty sure the DVD Forum's working group for blue-laser (WG-11) wasn't formed until 2002.
You make it sound like the DVD Forum is just Sony's plaything, helpless and impotent to stop Sony from having their way, in which case I think you have explanation as to why Sony stays on the Forum
But I think you overgeneralize and exaggerate their role within the DVD Forum and try to undercut the individual will of other Forum members who you claim only vote the way they do because Sony "got" them to.
No, I asked why you weren't like this with Toshiba and NEC, who opted to create a seperate blue laser disc format rather than work with the BRD founders, thus setting the stage for segmentation.
sonycowboy
Member
There was an interesting article today in the US today. For the past two days, they've had bits about the 4 studios signing on for HD-DVD.
Some interesting points were that NOBODY is making money off of DVD players at retail because they're dirt cheap with no margins. This is really causing retailers to desperately want a new technology that will help to push sales and margin. Not only that, the HD TV market is booming, even though there is precious little content for those buyers to really utilize the TV for.
So, while you can say that High Def DVD's won't take off, we haven't really had a situation like this before, where the market had everything but the players. There have already been over 5 million HD TV's sold in the US, and those buyers will almost certainly be very quick to pick up the next generation player out there and the projections are for HD TV to double in 2005.
Some interesting points were that NOBODY is making money off of DVD players at retail because they're dirt cheap with no margins. This is really causing retailers to desperately want a new technology that will help to push sales and margin. Not only that, the HD TV market is booming, even though there is precious little content for those buyers to really utilize the TV for.
So, while you can say that High Def DVD's won't take off, we haven't really had a situation like this before, where the market had everything but the players. There have already been over 5 million HD TV's sold in the US, and those buyers will almost certainly be very quick to pick up the next generation player out there and the projections are for HD TV to double in 2005.
The difficulty is in the 'tick boxes'.
Companies are trying to produce something that 'ticks all the right boxes'. Its technological innovation and development by comittee. Maybe there isn't actually the demand for this at all. Doesn't stop the manufacturers trying to ride the success of DVD and create a market.
If history teaches us anything, its that the successes are the exceptions that prove the rule that the public don't like being force-fed new technology. DVD succeeded off the back of CDs, and the public were ready for something that looked noticably better (average TV screen size grew a lot too), and didn't need rewinding. Thats about it. The success took everyone by surprise, and now all studios are shovelling shit out onto the format as quickly as they can.
Now they want the next cash cow. They are now arguing about whether it should be HD-DVD, or Bluray.
How about arguing whether it should be? At all?
Sony doing long term stuff is nice and all, but at some point they have to start making money or they won't make it to the long term to cash in.
Companies are trying to produce something that 'ticks all the right boxes'. Its technological innovation and development by comittee. Maybe there isn't actually the demand for this at all. Doesn't stop the manufacturers trying to ride the success of DVD and create a market.
If history teaches us anything, its that the successes are the exceptions that prove the rule that the public don't like being force-fed new technology. DVD succeeded off the back of CDs, and the public were ready for something that looked noticably better (average TV screen size grew a lot too), and didn't need rewinding. Thats about it. The success took everyone by surprise, and now all studios are shovelling shit out onto the format as quickly as they can.
Now they want the next cash cow. They are now arguing about whether it should be HD-DVD, or Bluray.
How about arguing whether it should be? At all?
Sony doing long term stuff is nice and all, but at some point they have to start making money or they won't make it to the long term to cash in.
HDTV has hit the mass market.. there will be more HDTVs sold this year than the past 3 years combined. It is expected that there will be more HDTVs sold in December and January than were sold in total last year. Some 10-15 million people will own HDTVs by the time the Superbowl airs, and thanks to inroads in cable and cheaper satellite STBs, the majority of those 10-15 million TVs will be used to view HDTV signals from local and cable channels.
That being said, HDTV has finally gotten here. In May of next year all stations will have their STAs altered and will be required to transmit at at least 50% power and cover their entire grade A contour (instead of their current requirement which is just city of license) and at least 50% of their grade b contour. top that off with the february/march deadline of being required to properly map channels to their analog station numbers (looking at you weigel) AND send out guide data over PSIP, and HDTV will be here big time next year.
MY point with that is, people will want HDTV, and DVD manufacturers and sales associates have been very careful to NOT call pro-scan DVD players HD... People know that the only way to watch HDTV right now is over cable/satellite/local. They WILL want a video format to take advantage of their new TVs.. They are ready for HD-DVD/BR
Unfortunately I still think it will lead to confusion. Like I said, the only way I see myself as being wrong is if CE manufacturers work OUT OF THE GATE at building universal players and at the end of the day it won't matter which format you pickup. That would prevent confusion. But by releasing two different formats and requiring two different players, and with presumably some studios not supporting some formats (Warner != BR, Sony/MGM != HD-DVD) it will polarize the market even worse.
Like I said, I don't hate Sony or Blue-ray.. I just wish that the BRD members would have worked harder with the DVD Forum to develop ONE next-gen video standard... because history indicates that two simultaneous standards will just confuse and ultimately obstruct acceptance.
That being said, HDTV has finally gotten here. In May of next year all stations will have their STAs altered and will be required to transmit at at least 50% power and cover their entire grade A contour (instead of their current requirement which is just city of license) and at least 50% of their grade b contour. top that off with the february/march deadline of being required to properly map channels to their analog station numbers (looking at you weigel) AND send out guide data over PSIP, and HDTV will be here big time next year.
MY point with that is, people will want HDTV, and DVD manufacturers and sales associates have been very careful to NOT call pro-scan DVD players HD... People know that the only way to watch HDTV right now is over cable/satellite/local. They WILL want a video format to take advantage of their new TVs.. They are ready for HD-DVD/BR
Unfortunately I still think it will lead to confusion. Like I said, the only way I see myself as being wrong is if CE manufacturers work OUT OF THE GATE at building universal players and at the end of the day it won't matter which format you pickup. That would prevent confusion. But by releasing two different formats and requiring two different players, and with presumably some studios not supporting some formats (Warner != BR, Sony/MGM != HD-DVD) it will polarize the market even worse.
Like I said, I don't hate Sony or Blue-ray.. I just wish that the BRD members would have worked harder with the DVD Forum to develop ONE next-gen video standard... because history indicates that two simultaneous standards will just confuse and ultimately obstruct acceptance.
I'll believe the HDTV hype when I see it. HDTV has been much ballyhooed since before the PS2 launched. It's still got jackshit for a userbase. 10-15M HDTVs? Fucking pipedream IMO. But even then, that's nothing, nothing at all. There were that many DVD players on the market before the PS2 hit, and it's not like DVD had officially taken off yet, right? HDTV's so much more expensive, and has so much ground to make up that it'll be a nonfactor for some time. The prices really haven't dropped yet, and I'd like to believe you need more than 10-15M before you start to see devices hitting mass market prices. But then, I've been skeptical of HDTV since the consortium decided to ignore Microsoft's demands for convergence with the PC market. IIRC, MS had some interesting suggestions that would have allowed PC and TV display technology to merge for the next gen, but they got shot down on most of it. Hence, 1080i. Damned interlacing needs to go.borghe said:
PEACE.Except for the fact that we are already there.. The rest will be filled out between now and the superbowl.. and those are conservative analysis.Pimpwerx said:
3,725,206 And DVD was qualified as a roaring success since mid-1998.
You can get an RPTV HDTV for under $999, and you can get a direct view HDTV for under $600. HDTV prices are now as low as regular TV prices were 3-5 years ago.
Well, apparently you are wrong, because you can pick up a 42" HDTV for $999 and a 30" one for $699.
Have you seen pricing on 1080p displays? Even now pricing still remains usually $4000+ on these displays, and that is 7 years after the first HDTV sets went on sale. 1080i allows for better compression in the limited 6MHz spectrum and allows for manufacturers to only have to create displays with 540 active scanlines while still giving an effective 2megapixel image.But then, I've been skeptical of HDTV since the consortium decided to ignore Microsoft's demands for convergence with the PC market. IIRC, MS had some interesting suggestions that would have allowed PC and TV display technology to merge for the next gen, but they got shot down on most of it. Hence, 1080i. Damned interlacing needs to go.
You are wrong on almost every one of your points. I really don't know what else to say. Any doubt on HDTVs success can be dealt away with by the fact that the 33rd largest market in the country (Milwaukee, WI, where I live) has over 100K HDTV TWC subs (across all south eastern WI), who knows how many satellite and OTA subs, and can get every local channel in HDTV except for the UPN station.
Smaller markets will vary, but even the smaller market in WI have all stations (Madison, Green Bay) or most stations (Wausau, Eau Claire, Superior/Duluth, etc).
Has it hit DVD numbers yet? No, but at this point arguing that HDTV is anything but the way most of us will be watching television over the next year and a half is really quite silly.
I agree HDTV is being pushed hard. But good ones have good scalers in them. Allied to 480p DVD players costing $50, most people will be happy. Certainly happy enough to make buying a bluray/HD player and all their movies again a difficult sell.
And difficult as in 'outside of the active lifetime of PS3/Xbox to be relevant'.
And difficult as in 'outside of the active lifetime of PS3/Xbox to be relevant'.
Good thing that they aren't aiming to just offer player-only devices from the start then. Again, you guys are focusing on pre-recorded HD content in your arguments to a fault. Both BRD and HD-DVD camps are working to make their formats as viable for recording from the start as for playback, with BRD seemingly much further along in this regard.
Don't have an HDTV? Who cares? A BRD/HDDVD recorder could still be a very tempting proposition.
Don't have an HDTV? Who cares? A BRD/HDDVD recorder could still be a very tempting proposition.
no, I am not forgetting about recordable media, I am just not thinking it will be as anywhere near a big deal in the home theater sector thanks to the impact of DVRs. My HD TiVo can hold 63 hours of HD video and 427 hours of SD video... when they start manufacturing 350GB+ drives en masse, I can pop those in and presumably get, say, 126 hours of HD and 854 hours of SD on my unit with a TB of storage. That is like 65 blank single layer blue-ray or HD-DVD discs.. and with the way the broadcast flag and the studios are headed, it will be harder than ever to get that stuff off of my HD DVR and onto BR or HD-DVD out of fear of then breaking that and sending copies off to whomever.
So no, I am not forgetting about the recorability of both formats. I am just wondering what relevance that will really have in the home theater segment with HD DVRs out now and larger storage coming in the near future. Why burn 2 hours of HD off to a removable disc that I am going to have to organize and find again when I can just pull up a list of shows and select fro there?
pre-recorded movies are what is going to spell success or failure for the formats, because by the time the formats actually arrive next year, DVRs will be the standard STB in place by both cable and satellite and there is no way either format can compare to that in terms or ease of use and convenience.
So no, I am not forgetting about the recorability of both formats. I am just wondering what relevance that will really have in the home theater segment with HD DVRs out now and larger storage coming in the near future. Why burn 2 hours of HD off to a removable disc that I am going to have to organize and find again when I can just pull up a list of shows and select fro there?
pre-recorded movies are what is going to spell success or failure for the formats, because by the time the formats actually arrive next year, DVRs will be the standard STB in place by both cable and satellite and there is no way either format can compare to that in terms or ease of use and convenience.
So, in a nutshell, HDD-based DVRs are perfectly fine thank you very much and even if it proves otherwise, studios are going to take away everyone's ability to record broadcast content anyway so the point is moot. Way to hedge your bets! :lol
I love my Tivo for sure, but HDD as the storage solution is more volatile and less stable than an optical media solution, making the latter better for archiving. Not to mention that optical media is more portable. Neither is the ideal medium for all needs, but they complement each other very well, as I was alluding to earlier when I mentioned "entertainment servers" in another post. Until we see affordable micro HDDs that can be mounted in hot-swappable arrays that offer terabytes worth of a space, which you can then remove conveniently for portable access to their contents through simple plug and play interface, I don't see the HDD DVR being sufficient on its own.
As for the DRM concerns I don't think that studios are going to shoot themselves in foot by taking away an ability that people have taken for granted for the last quarter century, as much as alarmists like to think otherwise.
I love my Tivo for sure, but HDD as the storage solution is more volatile and less stable than an optical media solution, making the latter better for archiving. Not to mention that optical media is more portable. Neither is the ideal medium for all needs, but they complement each other very well, as I was alluding to earlier when I mentioned "entertainment servers" in another post. Until we see affordable micro HDDs that can be mounted in hot-swappable arrays that offer terabytes worth of a space, which you can then remove conveniently for portable access to their contents through simple plug and play interface, I don't see the HDD DVR being sufficient on its own.
As for the DRM concerns I don't think that studios are going to shoot themselves in foot by taking away an ability that people have taken for granted for the last quarter century, as much as alarmists like to think otherwise.
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/variety/20041129/va_tv_ne/billions_at_disc_risk_2
interesting DVD software sales breakdown. HD-DVD >>> BRD.
all that $$$$$$ for 19% is sad
interesting DVD software sales breakdown. HD-DVD >>> BRD.
all that $$$$$$ for 19% is sad