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[boxoctosis]

Barnsley's MP (Dan Jarvis) once punched me in the head. True story.

(We were in school together, I was winding him up. He was a really good guy then, not that that matters for anything).

 

[Goodlife]

I have decision to vote labour reason why the tories are thinking about cutting disabled benefits this is going to deep effort my brother! Anyway knows any local labour groups in Sheffield or Barnsley?

https://mynearestmarginal.com

 

[RenditMan]

I have found this article quite helpful in dealing with my feelings as a European who's lived in the UK for 10 years: [url]https://medium.com/@helenldecruz/fbrightest-and-best-its-time-to-pack-up-and-offer-your-talents-elsewhere-3c00fd8df505
[/URL]




There are a couple of Facebook groups of Europeans living in the UK and trying to help each other with getting out of the UK as soon as possible, and I know that's the echo chamber that I chose to get my anecdotal evidence from, but it mirrors my growing resentment towards the UK and the continuous disappointment living here is.

I don't even want to wait and see if the UK commits to letting me keep my rights as an EU citizen. Years of xenophobia and now the uprising of Nostalgia Empire has been too much. I don't trust the UK to be a country that can fare in the 21st century and deal with the realities of globalisation - the UK's efforts in aiding refugees has been laughable, and I really really struggle to see how in the world anyone thinking of themselves as British can think that's something to be proud of.

Unlike the council election, I'm not able to vote in the coming GE, which kind of hit home the realisation that, as a European, there's truly nothing I can do anymore to have an impact on the UK...

Out of interest, do you think encouraging people to spend their life savings on people smugglers and leaky boats to cross rough seas was the best way to handle the refugee crisis?

 

[EmiPrime]

I have decision to vote labour reason why the tories are thinking about cutting disabled benefits this is going to deep effort my brother! Anyway knows any local labour groups in Sheffield or Barnsley?

Get in touch with your local party, they'll be more than happy to point you in the right direction.

Or if you become a member someone from your local party will call you and you can ask then.

 

[nitronite]

Don't know if it's been discussed here, but I thought this was a pretty interesting interview of Blair by Campbell, which just highlights to me how statesmanlike and yet human Blair seems compared to any of the recent party leaders. I believe that had he not made the catastrophic decision to go onto Iraq, he may well still have been Prime Minister to this day.

Spoiler

Quite coy about Trump and his recent meetings with Kushner. I wonder what his role is in the Trump administration's Middle East strategy.

 

[DECK'ARD]

Don't know if it's been discussed here, but I thought this was a pretty interesting interview of Blair by Campbell, which just highlights to me how statesmanlike and yet human Blair seems compared to any of the recent party leaders. I believe that had he not made the catastrophic decision to go onto Iraq, he may well still have been Prime Minister to this day.

Spoiler

Quite coy about Trump and his recent meetings with Kushner. I wonder what his role is in the Trump administration's Middle East strategy.

Blair knew his shit, but he was essentially an evangelical preacher in politician form. It worked a treat, and was exactly what the country needed. Sweeping up not only the voters, but seducing the media, and sweeping aside any dissent in the party which was needed to rebrand it.

Trouble is with power this turned into a true Messiah Complex behind closed doors. Saving the country became saving the world, and when Iraq came calling it was an opportunity to be seized rather than the very grave decision it should have been. Blair also had a boner for Thatcher and fancied his Falklands and place in history. There's an argument that we would have been dragged to war anyway, but with religion in play now on both sides of the Atlantic there was no getting off this train. That's simply not what God would have wanted.

Religion brought Bush and Blair closer together than they had any reason to be otherwise, and with that the shine came off our political preacher as he led us somewhere we really didn't want to go.

 

[CyclopsRock]

It's hard to imagine that anyone with first hand experiences of MDMA would want it banned.

 

[Spuck-uk]

It's hard to imagine that anyone with first hand experiences of MDMA would want it banned.

+1 to this, fucking impossible to hate anything or anyone when you're rolling. The comedowns though..

 

[CyclopsRock]

+1 to this, fucking impossible to hate anything or anyone when you're rolling. The comedowns though..

Someone needs to spike the first cabinet meeting's jug of water.

"Hmm, this tastes like shit but hey let's give a hundred billion pounds in foreign aid."

 

[DECK'ARD]

+1 to this, fucking impossible to hate anything or anyone when you're rolling. The comedowns though..

I don't think it's any coincidence that anything to make getting through this election that much easier is banned.

So cruel, it's not just the foxes.

 

[Pancake Mix]

Don't know if it's been discussed here, but I thought this was a pretty interesting interview of Blair by Campbell, which just highlights to me how statesmanlike and yet human Blair seems compared to any of the recent party leaders. I believe that had he not made the catastrophic decision to go onto Iraq, he may well still have been Prime Minister to this day.

Blair was tremendously talented. The Iraq decision on incorrect information is obviously very, very bad, but he was very smart and solved some other problems.

I remember reading in his book that one big change when he was elected as Labour leader was to shift the party's official position to neutral on Northern Ireland (from being against it). This helped build trust with unionists who prior to that change felt (quite reasonably) that they could not trust a Labour government on the mainland that did not want them and for that government to negotiate on their behalf. With Blair that changed and he became a neutral figure that both the unionists and nationalists felt (again, quite reasonably) could act in good faith and with little bias one way or the other.

Then, almost the first thing he did in his first ministry was head to Northern Ireland and helped broker the Good Friday Agreement within a year, also thanks to John Hume and David Trimble in particular.

So you really, really have to take the very good with the very bad. His contribution to the Northern Ireland peace process was enormous and continued through to the St Andrews Agreement ten years later.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

The War on Terror was an insane period in US/UK history. Insane politicians, insane events. Blair deserves the hate, but I'd not have wanted to have been in his shoes in 2001-2005.

Who wants a bet on how many pages the Tory manifesto is going to be?

I say 12 pages, and two of them are a preamble by May. And probably quite big font.

Lib Dem one will be somewhere between 30 and 40 pages and will style itself as a 'manifesto for opposition' or something. It is probably going to be weird.

I read through a lot of WEP's one, and I am now more convinced than ever that WEP are a cool bunch. Not much specific budgeting policy, but lots of feminist policy to start debates. They seem to have got lots of women involved in politics for the first time too which is seriously good for democracy.

 

[DECK'ARD]

Blair was tremendously talented. The Iraq decision on incorrect information is obviously very, very bad, but he was very smart and solved some other problems.

I remember reading in his book that one big change when he was elected as Labour leader was to shift the party's official position to neutral on Northern Ireland (from being against it). This helped build trust with unionists who prior to that change felt (quite reasonably) that they could not trust a Labour government on the mainland that did not want them and for that government to negotiate on their behalf. With Blair that changed and he became a neutral figure that both the unionists and nationalists felt (again, quite reasonably) could act in good faith and with little bias one way or the other.

Almost the first thing he did in his first ministry was head to Northern Ireland and helped broker the Good Friday Agreement within a year, also thanks to John Hume and David Trimble in particular.

Read up on Blair behind closed doors and people who really knew him on his rise to the top. You get everything from talking to God, to consulting the Bible for key decisions, to feeling it was his duty to rid the world of evil.

Alistair Campbell may have said "We don't do God", but that was for the public's benefit. He couldn't stop Blair.

Iraq was a monumental mistake because Blair was irrational. And this is why religion should be kept firmly out of politics even by the backdoor.

 

[D4Danger]

You know I wouldn't mind Blair if he had the tiniest amount of humility about himself and his actions but he's such an arrogant wanker to this day I just can't.

 

[DECK'ARD]

You know I wouldn't mind Blair if he had the tiniest amount of humility about himself and his actions but he's such an arrogant wanker to this day I just can't.

"Only God will judge me"

 

[Pancake Mix]

Read up on Blair behind closed doors and people who really knew him on his rise to the top. You get everything from talking to God, to consulting the Bible for key decisions, to feeling it was his duty to rid the world of evil.

Alistair Campbell may have said "We don't do God", but that was for the public's benefit. He couldn't stop Blair.

Iraq was a monumental mistake because Blair was irrational. And this is why religion should be kept firmly out of politics even by the backdoor.

I don't think that's too much of a deal breaker with the voting public at all, especially twenty years ago when he was first elected (or first elected as leader of the largest party, rather). Doesn't mean the fact he viewed the world that way was good, but many voters would be more endeared to him instead for doing so.

I agree that religion should generally be kept out, however, I think the Lib Dems take that to an insane degree as they almost certainly want to drop the Lords Spiritual and disestablish the Church of England, or at least have in the past. Record low attendance aside, I don't think that's where people's heads are either, at all.

 

[DECK'ARD]

I don't think that's too much of a deal breaker with the voting public at all, especially twenty years ago when he was first elected (or first elected as leader of the largest party, rather). Doesn't mean the fact he viewed the world that way was good, but many voters would be more endeared to him instead for doing so.

I agree that religion should generally be kept out, however, I think the Lib Dems take that to an insane degree as they almost certainly want to drop the Lords Spiritual and disestablish the Church of England, or at least have in the past. Record low attendance aside, I don't think that's where people's heads are either, at all.

I very much doubt it, and Alistair Campbell for all his faults was a master of spin and knew it.

As I talked about above Blair walked a fine line between politician and preacher, when the illusion was broken people started feeling they were being indoctrinated instead and lied to.

And with his inability to back down or concede any ground because this was on a higher level to him than mere politics he was finished. And by extension New Labour. It was only a matter of time.

 

[Jackpot]

The Iraq decision on fabricated information is obviously very, very bad.

FTFY.

He's even on record saying WMD was a convenient excuse to sell the war to the public and that he would have used something else if that didn't work.

 

[Audioboxer]

Read up on Blair behind closed doors and people who really knew him on his rise to the top. You get everything from talking to God, to consulting the Bible for key decisions, to feeling it was his duty to rid the world of evil.

Alistair Campbell may have said "We don't do God", but that was for the public's benefit. He couldn't stop Blair.

Iraq was a monumental mistake because Blair was irrational. And this is why religion should be kept firmly out of politics even by the backdoor.

Aye, Blair loves his religion. Good ole Hitch even had a bit of banter with him about it

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFnSjmQCGDM

America is nutty with Presidents and God. If you're agnostic/atheist you stand zero chance of getting into power. Or at least you have to pretend you do everything in the name of God. The UK isn't anywhere near as bad mixing religion and politics. It really is a private matter, not a grounding to run a country, or in the case of Wars, mumble about God telling you to go to War.

 

[kmag]

A bit of both.

The variant in this attack exploits a vulnerability that was patched by Microsoft in March. This means that there is a failure in process by all the organisations involved to get their systems patched.

Targeted attack for a specific fix + poor security practices = bitcoin for the attacker, and a high profile news story.

The NHS basically is still a 2003 + XP shop in a lot of places, . Because that was the last time they got enough money they could divert it to wholesale modernisation of their IT infrastructure.

One of my first contracts post BNFL was doing Exchange 2003 for GP practices must have been about 2005/6. I just checked the domain, it's still there and still Exchange 2003!

 

[DECK'ARD]

FTFY.

He's even on record saying WMD was a convenient excuse to sell the war to the public and that he would have used something else if that didn't work.

I remember watching his 45 minute claim in the Commons, it was utterly laughable. Saddam could hardly hit his neighbours let alone wallop us. It was so absolutely crystal clear that everything was a load of bollocks and Blair didn't care if it was a load of bollocks.

We were doing this because reasons, for God! Except the last bit was neatly tucked away where no one could see.

 

[TimmmV]

Quite enjoyed this:

Windows XP. Strong and Stable

 

[MrMysterio]

Out of interest, do you think encouraging people to spend their life savings on people smugglers and leaky boats to cross rough seas was the best way to handle the refugee crisis?

Granting people refuge isn't the cause for seeking refuge in the first place. It's war, violence, famine, etc in your home country that leads you to seek refuge.

The UK's shocking treatment of refugees and asylum seekers isn't somehow bettered by looking at the dangerous lengths people go to in order to reach safer countries.

 

[titch]

I have decision to vote labour reason why the tories are thinking about cutting disabled benefits this is going to deep effort my brother! Anyway knows any local labour groups in Sheffield or Barnsley?

Quick question if you didnt have a brother that would be deeply effected by these cuts would you vote tory?

 

[Hazzuh]

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 46% (-)
LAB: 32% (+1)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 7% (-1)

(via @ORB_Int / 10 - 11 May)

Not exactly the collapse of the two party system is it? 78% would be the highest vote share for Lab+Con since 1979.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

Yup, the high vote shares are indicative of the LDs still having a hill to climb.

As I said before though, the key moments of this campaign are when the manifestos drop, and the TV debates/interviews/town halls.

Talking to voters on the doorstep today you get a very different opinion to the polls, but to me this seems like an election with a massive amount of swing voters.

 

[slider]

Talking to voters on the doorstep today you get a very different opinion to the polls, but to me this seems like an election with a massive amount of swing voters.

From my personal perspective, I'd agree. Just waiting for a better option. Someone to convince me to give them my vote.

 

[SporeCrawler]

Out of interest, do you think encouraging people to spend their life savings on people smugglers and leaky boats to cross rough seas was the best way to handle the refugee crisis?

do you think its better to let them drown in the ocean or let them die in lybia, syria, etc.?

 

[Par Score]

Labour moving in the right direction in all the polls. +1 with ORB, +2 with Opinium, +5 with ComRes. High 20s results are becoming low 30s.

On top of that, it's becoming a real two horse race, Lib Dems and UKIP are pretty much evaporating.

I can see Labour comfortably outperforming their vote share from 2010 and 2015 in the end, maybe up into the mid 30s, which I suspect will be enough for Corbyn to stay on.

 

[Billy_Pilgrim]

Labour moving in the right direction in all the polls. +1 with ORB, +2 with Opinium, +5 with ComRes. High 20s results are becoming low 30s.

On top of that, it's becoming a real two horse race, Lib Dems and UKIP are pretty much evaporating.

I can see Labour comfortably outperforming their vote share from 2010 and 2015 in the end, maybe up into the mid 30s, which I suspect will be enough for Corbyn to stay on.

If he loses seats he's gone. It won't be up to him.

 

[Empty]

i think there's enough existing resentment towards corbyn that the blow of may winning so decisively on 46 odd % with a ton of seats will overshadow him doing nowhere nearly as badly as people (including myself) would have predicted. losing elections really hurts.

however if the current polls bear out i think his bold manifesto, that tbf only he would have delivered, doing 32% will be helpful in preserving some of its policies for the next labour leader. i.e the policies were a limited success he just could never overcome people's deep scepticism about him becoming the next pm, perception of incompetence etc.

 

[blazinglord]

I think people are being incredibly optimistic about Corbyn stepping down in June.

He has a core network of loyal supporters at grassroots level, and there is no natural leader-in-waiting who will be able to unite the unions, MPs and members behind them.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

If Corbyn gets 30.4%+, the only way he's stepping down is if the 5% amendment passes.

 

[D4Danger]

these improved polls only make the inevitable defeat more crushing.

 

[PJV3]

If Corbyn gets 30.4%+, the only way he's stepping down is if the 5% amendment passes.

I'm not sure i really want him gone before a deal is struck with the EU anyway, it is going to be a thankless task and the unpatriotic card will get played if a Labour leader goes against the government.

I preferred the election happening in 2020, much better for a fresh start.

 

[sammex]

Latest YouGov

How low can UKIP go?

 

[DECK'ARD]

Latest YouGov

How low can UKIP go?

Not low enough.

 

[PJV3]

Latest YouGov

How low can UKIP go?

They're on their way to a landslide victory, old UKIP are fucked.

 

[Royal_Phalanx]

UKIP returned to the Conservatives, nothing to celebrate, they'll just make them more right wing

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I'm not sure i really want him gone before a deal is struck with the EU anyway, it is going to be a thankless task and the unpatriotic card will get played if a Labour leader goes against the government.

I preferred the election happening in 2020, much better for a fresh start.

Sort of agreed. Another leadership fight just seems... exhausting. I can't take much more politics, and I ran! I think after the election, the membership will just be exhausted. Not sure there's the will for anything more.

 

[jerrymaguire]

i'm registered to vote by post.

does anyone know roughly when i should be receiving the polling form? ta.

 

[Kotetsu534]

Some big movements are underway in British politics. Corbyn's Labour is holding in the low 30s, while May's Tories are over 40% in every social group. This poll backs up what I was saying before about how social class isn't a big factor in current political opinion. If we get an election result with >75% of the vote going towards the Tories and Labour (outside Scotland that will be a couple of points higher yet) you'll see lots of talk of political realignment, with the Tories dominating, Labour a better-than-expected second, and the third parties nowhere (except the SNP). But the story is much more subtle than that - the old alignment was strong built on class lines, unlike the new one. I suspect Goodhart's Somewhere/Anywhere divide is much more helpful as an explanatory metric - the Somewheres are defecting from UKIP (and Labour) to the Tories, while few Anywheres have been convinced by the Lib Dems as yet. While Labour isn't a lightning rod for anti-Brexit support, it is strongly internationalist on immigration, and the Tories, despite rueful editorials from the likes of Allister Heath in the Telegraph at May's instinct for interventionism, can be relied upon to defend free markets and the free movement of capital, so there's enough there to keep them onside.

 

[CalamityPixel]

Got my polling card thing today :O

 

[HaloRose]

Quick question if you didnt have a brother that would be deeply effected by these cuts would you vote tory?

No i wouldn't vote tory! always voted labour or liberals

 

[Huw_Dawson]

That Yougov poll seems pretty close to reality. UKIP are going to get less votes than the Greens at this rate. I do want to see the data to confirm a few suspicions I have.

I think we'll be getting close to knowing the final landscape at the end of the coming week.

Oh, and here's a neat graph!

From my personal perspective, I'd agree. Just waiting for a better option. Someone to convince me to give them my vote.

There's a pretty huge difference between LD-X marginals and Labour-Tory marginals this year for this reason.

 

[Pandy]

UKIP returned to the Conservatives, nothing to celebrate, they'll just make them more right wing

Not strictly accurate, as quite a few of UKIP's supporters came to them by way of Labour. I don't disagree with your projection though.

Comedy Eurovision bit from Twitter I thought people here might enjoy:

[IMG]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C_uwo7iW0AAKQ6M.jpg:large[/IMG]

https://twitter.com/Okeating/status/863478282930589696

 

[Syder]

The logic is sound but I feel like this is overly optimistic from a Labour perspective.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

What's amazing is that so many Hard Remain-ers are voting Labour. I think there's still a lot of misunderstanding about what Labour's policy is and that's - bizarrely - helping them.

 

[FlammableD]

What's amazing is that so many Hard Remain-ers are voting Labour. I think there's still a lot of misunderstanding about what Labour's policy is and that's - bizarrely - helping them.

It's a case of realistic alternatives I guess. If you're a hard remainder, you'll find the Tory Brexit horrifying, and Labour are the biggest alternative, therefore your best chance of avoiding that.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

It's a case of realistic alternatives I guess. If you're a hard remainder, you'll find the Tory Brexit horrifying, and Labour are the biggest alternative, therefore your best chance of avoiding that.

Except you're not avoiding that - the difference between the Labour and Tory positions is that the Tories would walk away if they don't get a good deal, whereas Labour would attempt to extend negotiations.

On the issue of the single market, which is the big issue as it stands unless you want to ignore the referendum result, Labour and the Tories are identical.

It's a silly situation. My hope is that the next couple of weeks will be enough to shake a lot of misconceptions out of people's heads.