Support NeoGAF

[RangerX]

Does Ireland often have coalitions? It uses STV after all which is a better voting system.

Coalitions are a mainstay of the political landscape here in Ireland. I don't think there has been a majority government here since the mid eighties. That's the case elsewhere in Europe too that uses PR. Your electoral system doesn't usually allow for that. Same with the states.

 

[Ghost]

someone just pointed something out to me...







WTF?

Where is this £500b coming from? That's 20% of GDP, ten times the defence budget and enough cash to run the NHS for 4 1/2 years (apparently - last one isn't mine).

£500 billion!

You should reply to whoever someone was because it's really not difficult to find how they think they will raise the money, it's the first result if you google £500bn.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...-to-make-britain-more-socialist-a7337651.html

Snippet for easy reading:

He said this would be comprised of £250bn of government capital spending over 10 years and £100bn of state investment in a new publicly owned national investment bank and a new network of regional state-owned banks.

These banks would then borrow from the private capital markets to turn the £100bn of government capital into £250bn of lending to infrastructure projects.

So the government would have to borrow £350bn then?

Not necessarily – or at least not all of it. The £250bn of direct capital spending would be spread over 10 years. So that's £25bn a year, which is actually less than the roughly £80bn of gross public sector investment (£32bn excluding capital depreciation) that the Conservatives are currently forecast to spend in 2019-20.

 

[Billy_Pilgrim]

I like how on the day that Corbyn preached a message of campaigning against a rigged system, Jeremy's son gets linked with getting the safest seat in the country and his main Union backer suspends his opponent.

 

[Moze]

I believe there is a chance Labour can win. It would have to involve a low Tory turnout, an amazing campaign from Labour with a great showing at the debates, and hopefully something just going wrong for May. Like some weird stuff happening or coming out.

 

[Snowman]

It's sad in a way that we see a big number being invested in infrastructure and immediately jump to "How ridiculous, there's no way we can afford that! Liars!", instead of being like happy that they care about that stuff.

 

[Halph n Halph]

It's easy to make these kinds of pledges when you've a 0% chance of winning an election

That's why I understand why any current PM would feel a TV debate is a lose lose . Opposition leaders can throw shit at you and tell the country how they will make everything great.
The only way they can be wholly proved wrong is if the current PM loses the election anyhow ,rendering the whole debate a pointless exercise.

 

[Billy_Pilgrim]

It's sad in a way that we see a big number being invested in infrastructure and immediately jump to "How ridiculous, there's no way we can afford that! Liars!", instead of being like happy that they care about that stuff.

If it's not realistic, costed or detailed then it's perfectly reasonable for anyone of any political leaning to want to know where the money is coming from.

 

[Charles Brandon]

It's sad in a way that we see a big number being invested in infrastructure and immediately jump to "How ridiculous, there's no way we can afford that! Liars!", instead of being like happy that they care about that stuff.

I'll take the criticism.

as a partial excuse they could make it clearer that this is a long term spending plan, kinda sounds like BOOM! we're going to drop 500 big ones in the first year. But still, I accept fault.

 

[GamingKaiju]

First post in a GE GAF thread.

So many great and well thought out posts in here.

I know Brexit is a huge point in this GE but I would like a more in-depth manifesto looking at the other issues such as roads, welfare, foreign policy etc.

Great thread title BTW OP!

I'll be voting tactically but my seat is granuteed to be Labors again which is a shame because my MP is useless.

 

[cyberheater]

I believe there is a chance Labour can win. It would have to involve a low Tory turnout, an amazing campaign from Labour with a great showing at the debates, and hopefully something just going wrong for May. Like some weird stuff happening or coming out.

There is zero chance Labour can win. Zero.

 

[Roberto Larcos]

Were are these predictions being posted . Are they being posted in this thread because it could get a bit messy?

People can PM me.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

There is zero chance Labour can win. Zero.

Agreed with the above. Labour will end up on 20% or lower his election - and I'll eat a marzipan hat if I'm wrong.

 

[Shantom]

I'm curious why people are predicting the Greens to win multiple seats this election, when they seem to be a much less visible party now than in the run up to 2015. Is it just because of how weak Labour are?

 

[Par Score]

There is zero chance Labour can win. Zero.

Look, it's absolutely unlikely, maybe a 5% chance, maybe a 1% chance, but it's not zero.

There are a multitude of improbable but possible events that would send the current prevailing wisdom out of the window.

 

[Burai]

If it's not realistic, costed or detailed then it's perfectly reasonable for anyone of any political leaning to want to know where the money is coming from.

Unless it was a Brexit Leave campaign promise, in which case we were supposed to believe it without questioning it, lest we be clapped in irons in the Tower for being traitors.

 

[Snowman]

If it's not realistic, costed or detailed then it's perfectly reasonable for anyone of any political leaning to want to know where the money is coming from.

I'll take the criticism.

as a partial excuse they could make it clearer that this is a long term spending plan, kinda sounds like BOOM! we're going to drop 500 big ones in the first year. But still, I accept fault.

I definitely didn't mean it as a slight against anyone in particular, I jumped to the same conclusion after reading those posts. And it's obviously always good to be skeptical. The cynicism around politics is just sort of exhausting I guess.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

I'm curious why people are predicting the Greens to win multiple seats this election, when they seem to be a much less visible party now than in the run up to 2015. Is it just because of how weak Labour are?

I think just because they're second in quite a few places now, and second to Labour.

For example, I think they're in pretty good shape to take Bristol West from Labour this time around. Which would be a bit of a shame as I quite like Thangam, but I'm not in her constituency anymore.

 

[Roberto Larcos]

anyone voting lib dem?

Spoiler

honest question

Westcountry Lib Dem here.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I also think they'll win Bristol West, and hold Brighton.

That's it, though.

 

[Mr. Sam]

I'm curious why people are predicting the Greens to win multiple seats this election, when they seem to be a much less visible party now than in the run up to 2015. Is it just because of how weak Labour are?

They're strong locally in a handful of constituencies and - as you can plainly see - we're all just a bunch of eternal optimists on here. I've got them down for two seats.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

The issue is that Labour are going to have to cellotape a manifesto together in a few weeks, so as it stands any policy announcement they make is going to be temporary and uncosted.

Fortunately for my side my understanding is that the LDs have quietly been getting on with our manifesto for the last year, for the same reason we have well over 500 PPCs when Labour have to have their NEC select them - we called for a GE last year then actually prepped in case one happened.

The manifesto drops will be the big day of these campaigns. Once the manifestos go out, we will see what the actual battle lines are, especially around Brexit.

If the Lib Dems campaign for a referendum with an option to remain and guaranteed Single Market membership, and the two big parties both campaign for 'maximum access' and no second referendum, and I am right in my speculation that Brexit will be the driving problem of this campaign, then we are facing a very big and nasty fight between three very different parties.

Expect the polls in the next few days to highlight the shift that has occurred now that we have hit GE fever.

EDIT: The Greens will not win Bristol West. We will be fighting that seat - no Green/LD agreement there.

 

[tomtom94]

I also think they'll win Bristol West, and hold Brighton.

That's it, though.

The only other one they were in with a shot at last election was Norwich South, if I remember rightly, and I don't think they really made a dent.

It would be interesting if they did take a seat off Labour because obviously Corbyn was supposed to appeal to that group as well.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

The issue is that Labour are going to have to cellotape a manifesto together in a few weeks, so as it stands any policy announcement they make is going to be temporary and uncosted.

Fortunately for my side my understanding is that the LDs have quietly been getting on with our manifesto for the last year, for the same reason we have well over 500 PPCs when Labour have to have their NEC select them - we called for a GE last year then actually prepped in case one happened.

The manifesto drops will be the big day of these campaigns. Once the manifestos go out, we will see what the actual battle lines are, especially around Brexit.

If the Lib Dems campaign for a referendum with an option to remain and guaranteed Single Market membership, and the two big parties both campaign for 'maximum access' and no second referendum, and I am right in my speculation that Brexit will be the driving problem of this campaign, then we are facing a very big and nasty fight between three very different parties.

Expect the polls in the next few days to highlight the shift that has occurred now that we have hit GE fever.

EDIT: The Greens will not win Bristol West. We will be fighting that seat - no Green/LD agreement there.

Uhh, you fought it last time, and came behind the Greens. They don't need an agreement to take it.

 

[Hazzuh]

Kate Hoey standing for Labour again :

Thanks to all who have asked me to stand as Vauxhall's Labour candidate once more. Pleased to confirm & look forward to a positive campaign

Good news for the Lib Dems.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

Uhh, you fought it last time, and came behind the Greens. They don't need an agreement to take it.

This will be a vastly better campaign for the LDs than 2015, and the Greens are down from their 2015 peak.

Kate Hoey standing for Labour again :



Good news for the Lib Dems.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

This will be a vastly better campaign for the LDs than 2015, and the Greens are down from their 2015 peak.

They had a peak?? I thought they'd basically been on 4% (+/-1%) for the past two years.

Hey, maybe you'll take it. Is Stephen Williams running again? Or does it conflict with running for Metro Mayor?

I would take an avatar bet on this one btw

 

[Camp Freddie]

I always assumed the Greens would lose out, since their idealist-left supporters seemed like the sort of people who would side with Corbyn, having originally defected from Labour/Libdem because of their 'neoliberalism'.

These would include a lot of the 'nice' Momentum supporters that Crab has mentioned (the ones that just want a 'better, kinder' politics rather than to raise the Red Flag and seize the means of production).

I could of course be wrong, since I'm really just going by my Facebook where the people who used to post Green-party stuff now post Corbyn/Momentum stuff.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

They had a peak?? I thought they'd basically been on 4% (+/-1%) for the past two years.

Hey, maybe you'll take it. Is Stephen Williams running again? Or does it conflict with running for Metro Mayor?

I would take an avatar bet on this one btw

I'd say their peak was '15. They're down from that peak - not by apocalyptic amounts but they're really not doing that great. They got wrecked in Liverpool last year, for example.

I have absolutely no idea who is running in Bristol West.

I actually like my avatar way too much to risk it. Politics is a funny old game.

Oh, and the way it works on the Left for folks who want to know why the Greens exist:

Trotskyite left: TUSC
Socialists: Labour
Centre-left social liberals: Lib Dems
Ultra Liberals/Environmentalists: Greens

The Greens take environmentalism extremely seriously, as you'd expect, but they back that up with economic policy that generally doesn't make much sense beyond being really out there.

 

[Billy_Pilgrim]

The odds against Labour, but if enough of us bet a tenner on Labour to get the most seats or Corbyn to be the next PM, the odds will shorten and the narrative will begin to change.

 

[Hazzuh]

CCHQ really trying to push the "coalition of chaos" thing:

The chaos in @unitetheunion leadership fight is exactly what Corbyn's coalition of chaos with Lib Dems & SNP would bring to the country

Doesn't work when nobody thinks Labour will get enough seats to lead a coalition.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

Also doesn't work when nobody seriously expects Farron and Corbyn to ever manage to assemble a coalition. He can't even get his OWN MPs on side, and they are part of the common Labour heritage.

The only coalition I'd vote for would be one where Farron is PM. And that's less insane than thinking Corbyn could win given what I know.

 

[Maledict]

Kate Hoey standing for Labour again :



Good news for the Lib Dems.

Fuck fuck fuck fuckity fuckity fuck.

I don't know anyone who asked her to stand again. Everyone's been doing exactly the opposite.

 

[Beefy]

Can't be voting for this shit.

 

[8bit]

wow

such meme

 

[King Gilga]

Can't be voting for this shit.

wow

such meme

Stop it you guys you're making him likable and I don't want to like him.

 

[Juicy Bob]

I always assumed the Greens would lose out, since their idealist-left supporters seemed like the sort of people who would side with Corbyn, having originally defected from Labour/Libdem because of their 'neoliberalism'.

These would include a lot of the 'nice' Momentum supporters that Crab has mentioned (the ones that just want a 'better, kinder' politics rather than to raise the Red Flag and seize the means of production).

I could of course be wrong, since I'm really just going by my Facebook where the people who used to post Green-party stuff now post Corbyn/Momentum stuff.

I am a Green voter.

I'll be voting Labour just because they're the only chance I've got against a Tory MP again.

 

[Beefy]

Stop it you guys you're making him likable and I don't want to like him.

The pic I posted is actually a campaign promo poster

 

[Real Hero]

The pic I posted is actually a campaign promo poster

is it?

 

[Beefy]

is it?

Yep, Corbyn supporters have been sticking it up on stuff round my town. Few journo's reporting on it as well.

 

[Dougald]

Yep, Corbyn supporters have been sticking it up on stuff round my town.

I'm not even surprised at this point

 

[PJV3]

Yep, Corbyn supporters have been sticking it up on stuff round my town.

I think things are bad enough without getting hung up on stuff like that, it's pretty hard to care about it one way or the other.

 

[Beefy]

I think things are bad enough without getting hung up on stuff like that, it's pretty hard to care about it one way or the other.

I'm still voting Labour, my post was more a joke. Still pretty weird that Corbyn doing a dab is seen as a good thing.

 

[Pie and Beans]

Probably not going to vote, but if I did it'd most likely be Tory at this point -- and it is ridiculous to hear a Pie and Beans say that. Left needs to be crucified within an inch of their lives to get the message and rebirth as something entirely new and intelligent. The quicker it happens the better.

The quantity of acidic venom that would seep out of me if Corbyn didn't step down after loss would turn the oceans unhabitably purple.

 

[JonathanEx]

I'm still voting Labour, my post was more a joke. Still pretty weird that Corbyn doing a dab is seen as a good thing.

I think more fun as he'd never do such a thing. Him on Last Leg wasn't exactly a natural performance of fun.

 

[twobear]

Probably not going to vote, but if I did it'd most likely be Tory at this point -- and it is ridiculous to hear a Pie and Beans say that. Left needs to be crucified within an inch of their lives to get the message and rebirth as something entirely new and intelligent. The quicker it happens the better.

The quantity of acidic venom that would seep out of me if Corbyn didn't step down after loss would turn the oceans unhabitably purple.

What do you think this sensible and intelligent left wing politics would look like?

 

[PJV3]

I'm still voting Labour, my post was more a joke. Still pretty weird that Corbyn doing a dab is seen as a good thing.

I'm probably so defeated about the coming result that I felt nothing about it at all.

Bacon butties and the giant tombstone at least felt like they undermined a possible victory

 

[Beefy]

I think more fun as he'd never do such a thing. Him on Last Leg wasn't exactly a natural performance of fun.

I hope he gets asked about the poster.

 

[Billy_Pilgrim]

What do you think this sensible and intelligent left wing politics would look like?

Right now the core thing would have to be an increase in affluence for the lower and middle classes. Instead of moaning about how poor people are, focus entirely on how you're going to make them richer.

 

[Burai]

Probably not going to vote, but if I did it'd most likely be Tory at this point -- and it is ridiculous to hear a Pie and Beans say that. Left needs to be crucified within an inch of their lives to get the message and rebirth as something entirely new and intelligent. The quicker it happens the better.

The quantity of acidic venom that would seep out of me if Corbyn didn't step down after loss would turn the oceans unhabitably purple.

So New Labour 2.0 then?

And that's not even a dig. No-one's beating the Tories on a left-wing ticket. People might harp on Blair for being Tory Lite but I'll take Tory Lite any day over actual Tories.

 

[twobear]

Right now the core thing would have to be an increase in affluence for the lower and middle classes. Instead of moaning about how poor people are, focus entirely on how you're going to make them richer.

So to be clear, you don't think that any of the ten pledges they set out today (or yesterday, or whenever), have anything to do with making people better off and are really just moaning about how poor they are?