Spuck-uk
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tbh, I want to see blood. He HAS dealt out some real beastings in his time.
UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding
- Thread starter Jezbollah
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tbh, I want to see blood. He HAS dealt out some real beastings in his time.
Totally unsurprising. Her office sounds like it is a totally toxic place to work (hence the high turn over in staff) and she also seems to have a pretty bad working relationship with a lot of the cabinet. Its not really a recipe for good policy but I think most people expected these sorts of issues to come to a head much later rather than in the middle of the election.
D
Deleted member 231381
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Bear in mind postal votes arrive tomorrow and usually get sent within 48 hours of receipt, so what the polls show today/tomorrow/the day after is partially 'set' into the actual results. Even if Labour make some big climbs, they'll be partially handicapped by that.
They took back control. They just don't want that control to look like the Tory manifesto.
I feel like in the past week or so, the "Brexit fog" has been lifted and people suddenly remembered that there's more to life than getting angry about lightbulbs and immigrants.
Spuck-uk
Banned
I think that's been brewing for a while now tbh, explains why Lib Dems haven't made the expected gains in hitching their campaign so strongly to remain voters.
Maybe Nye Bevans ghost appeared and reminded them the tories hate the NHS.
Theonik
Member
We kinda saw the exact same thing happen with the leave campaign surging around the time postal votes went out the the eventual drop after not offsetting that but I remain hopeful.
Them are some fighting words.
Equally, if this is just a momentary wobble for the Tories then it might lock in some percentage of a high-water mark.
Spuck-uk
Banned
I don't many people realistically think Labour can win, but if the Tories get far less seats than expected it's a disaster in terms of their expectations, and makes it harder for them to railroad through truly heinous shit.
What is the reasoning for sending them out so early?
JonathanEx
Member
Very fair, and I guess they also skew older?
One interesting thing is I think I saw tweets from Faisal Islam about the last set of YouGov results that the movement to Labour didn't really come from older voters - mostly static. That may have been that field work was only just after the manifestos and it did take a couple of days for the dementia tax to hit that name and momentum, so either there's still room for a shift or it's not enough to change their minds.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Because they're for people who won't be able to vote in person at the election, usually because they're abroad, which means they need to be sent to addresses before that person goes abroad.
Tbf if they don't gain at least like 10 seats, the whole last two months will seem like such a waste of everyone's time and they'll be to blame
Theonik
Member
To make sure they all arrive in time for counting, especially for people who are voting from abroad. I'm not terribly fond of postal votes in general though.
I'd rather we only allowed them under exceptional circumstances and instead moved to expand voting by making voting a holiday etc.
There have been plenty of scandals with postal vote results leaking ahead of polls closing from both recent referendums.
Massive massive swing in 2 weeks
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Westminster VI
CON 47% (-1)
LAB: 33% (+5)
LDEM: 9% (-1)
UKIP: 4% (-2)
GRN: 2% (-1) (via @ICMResearch / 19-21 May)
The methodology for the recent ICM one is interesting, because it only made UKIP available as an option if the person sampled had a UKIP candidate standing in their constituency. I think this will probably make it the most accurate for the time being, an individual poll.
CON 47% (-1)
LAB: 33% (+5)
LDEM: 9% (-1)
UKIP: 4% (-2)
GRN: 2% (-1) (via @ICMResearch / 19-21 May)
The methodology for the recent ICM one is interesting, because it only made UKIP available as an option if the person sampled had a UKIP candidate standing in their constituency. I think this will probably make it the most accurate for the time being, an individual poll.
May has lost the plot again. Basing a campaign on Strong and Stable leadership really falls apart when you can't get your manifesto out without a huge cock up. And even her U-turn has lead to more uncertainty as May refuses to give figures on what the cap will be and how much revenue she expects to generate.
Another uncosted Tory policy.
And we are meant to believe Theresa May can get us a good deal with Europe. Lol.
Another uncosted Tory policy.
And we are meant to believe Theresa May can get us a good deal with Europe. Lol.
Yeah, CCHQ clearly timed the IRA stories in the Sunday editions of the Mail and Telegraph with this in mind, they must be pulling their hair out over the fact that the social care stuff has partially brushed it under the rug.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Mark Williams is the Welsh leader, is the absolute definition of a cracking local MP and Plaid only managed to drag his vote down to +3000 at the party's lowest ebb. The betting shops have him as clear favourite to hold. Helps that Ceredigion was a Remain area.
JonathanEx
Member
Oh that is interesting. I guess it's easy to forget that they're not just going for everywhere and the subtle hit that may have on results.
Theonik
Member
Oh I know. I used to live there till September.
Actually got a good friend that's trying to campaign for Labour there.
I'm merely posting in jest!
Huw_Dawson
Member
Aber alum by any chance? Greatest town on Earth.
Randy Lanzarote
Member
Is this now the official Aber thread?
2006 alumni (pgce primary) checking in.
2006 alumni (pgce primary) checking in.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Huw_Dawson
Member
You also the best.
And yeah LOL that BBC pic of May.
Looking at the BBC news feed it seems like Farron et al are keeping up pressure on the Dementia Tax. Got an email earlier asking to support a petition.
Corbyn will probably move on to other topics as he needs to, but this is definitely a lifeline for the LD media team who have really struggled to make a dent on the headlines in the past two weeks.
A couple of amusing Twitter topics:
1. Tactical2017 apparently is a secret Lib Den plot because it tells you that, yes, there are a couple hundred seats in the country where Labour is not the challenger to the Tories.
2. Some buzz around Farron being against the hunting ban, as he once said in an interview with a farmer's mag. Good example of fake news - Farron wanted to change the act to not be the current unenforceable mess that it is (as it is, ultimately, an unenforceable mess that does not protect animals).
Brilliant!
BBC online editors doing good work
When I checked the BBC News homepage on my phone just before 3pm, when the U Turn stuff was being covered everywhere else...
Is May constantly channelling Gordon Brown? She has the same resting bitch face, weird mouth shapes when she breathes in, and the same awkward artificial smile.
And she also knows how to use an election campaign to lower her popularity.
Hmm. Mine has the election front and center. Maybe Trump had his speech just then?
Either​ way May headlining right now on my phone. Maybe different in different places.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Boris Johnson heckled in St Ives:
https://twitter.com/LabourEoin/status/866677017051365376
(LD target seat, woo)
https://twitter.com/LabourEoin/status/866677017051365376
(LD target seat, woo)
That just seems like standard UKIP tbh.
Randy Lanzarote
Member
Someone ran spellcheck and thought 'that must be right. And it reads... Just like: I talk....'.
My increasing optimism of a non-Tory govt has been chilled somewhat by catching up on Lord Ashcroft's focus group podcast. Listening to Episode 2 around the Labour manifesto and no-one has anything to say beyond some right wing press bullet points:
Lord Ashcroft's Election Tour
Worth a listening​ to hear a sample of actual voters though.
Lord Ashcroft's Election Tour
Worth a listening​ to hear a sample of actual voters though.
He looks like Wyatt Earp. Is.....is he?
chromatic9
Member
Mrs May is the Ken Block of politics. Strong and stable U-turns.
It looks like they copy pasted his head from a different photo and put it someone wearing a suit.
Drifting wildly from left to right.
Their say Remain would of win by 10 points by postal votes. i don't trust them.
RedSparrows
Member
Going to the National Library of Wales semi-regularly is a perk of my life. Aber be great, in a way only faded seaside towns can be.
Carry on.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Neil vs May on now.
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