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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding

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Morat

Banned
Who can possibly resist.

5kfz7kn.gif

When you go home to read Marx together and then he gives you this look....
 
Nate Gold chimes in:

@NateSilver538
HuffPost is publishing UK polling numbers that strip out some of the adjustments pollsters over there usually make.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2017-united-kingdom-general-election

@NateSilver538
The HuffPost average shows Conservatives only 3 points ahead. Those adjustments make a huge difference for some polls.

DBGI_bHXkAAlAMX.jpg

I don't know if this is a good thing or a bad thing (he never says), but interesting none the less.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Nate Gold chimes in:

I don't know if this is a good thing or a bad thing (he never says), but interesting none the less.

They make the adjustments for a reason. If unweighted polls were of any value, Ed Miliband and Hillary Clinton would be Prime Minister and President respectively.
 
I don't know what I'm supposed to have done!

Doesn't mean she's not cross with me though.

No I think she's serious. She says we need to end austerity :-/

Why do you want austerity? It's a failure. The UK has an unacceptably high number of people living in poverty and using food banks. Public services are getting worse. If you have children you should consider what kind of country you want to give them, now that they may not be able to easily escape to the EU if the country is shit.
 
They make the adjustments for a reason. If unweighted polls were of any value, Ed Miliband and Hillary Clinton would be Prime Minister and President respectively.

It actually seems like he has more complicated thoughts on the matter, given that he says he has more complicated thoughts on the matter.

@NateSilver538
So I have ... complicated thoughts on the UK polls, which I'll try to write up sometime this week.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
It actually seems like he has more complicated thoughts on the matter, given that he says he has more complicated thoughts on the matter.

I look forward to what he says, but bear in mind his performance in the 2010 UK election.
 

jelly

Member
The parties in Scotland are a joke outside of the SNP who certainly aren't great by any measure, all they talk about is IndyRef 2. That's all the leaflets say, every news interview. People are fearful of the future, Brexit already passed, if IndyRef2 happens, you get a vote, it's not a given. How about doing something else, what's so fucking great about Brexit?
 
Does anyone think the UK will just accept the EU in everything but name and act like they are the Free Empire Snowflake. It's stupid to leave right, really stupid and anything but a really soft exit, basically nothing changes except you have zero say in any EU matters is the wise move that doesn't result in a shit show?

I just can't get my head around it, how does the UK come out good in any way without the shit hitting the fan?

it doesn't, in no small part because shit already has hit the fan. Everybody's just waiting to see how much of it will be thrown right back at them. With luck, some might even manage to cover their faces a bit. Maybe.
 

jelly

Member
I don't understand how people think.

Brexit is going to be bad short term and maybe long term or both so public finances will be terrible and austerity won't stop, possibly get substantially worse and people seem to not realise this, think it's sunshine and rainbows outside the EU, don't care as long as EU stops meddling in their idiotic viewpoint of what the EU does for them, hate foreigners that much. People are actually okay with this?

If May doesn't get her wish list from the EU, who do the public blame, themselves, the government, the EU for not handing out free memberships. Unless there is an Ace up our sleeve, we are just going to live the next ten years worse off for no good reason and if any fucker tells me to get on with it or blame the EU, I will rage.
 

King_Moc

Banned
I feel like I'm missing something here - how did he get to the £915,000 figure?

Also, I don't see what the guy said that was so wrong. He brought up some legitimate concerns.

He's just another selfish rich bloke. He wants all the money for himself, and wants others, even his own employees, to get as little of it as he can possibly let them get.

Why shouldn't you pay VAT on private school fees? Is it an essential service? We charge it on tampons ffs.

Zero hour contracts basically just exist to trick people into thinking that unemployment is lower than it is. What good is a job if you don't know if there's going to be work for you to get paid doing until you turn up?

What's wrong with paying people a living wage of £10 an hour? Or are you ok with people in full time employment in this country still not having enough money for them to live on?

I refuse to believe this guy ever voted Labour. He's as far from it as you can get.
 

RiggyRob

Member
I don't understand how people think.

Brexit is going to be bad short term and maybe long term or both so public finances will be terrible and austerity won't stop, possibly get substantially worse and people seem to not realise this, think it's sunshine and rainbows outside the EU, don't care as long as EU stops meddling in their idiotic viewpoint of what the EU does for them, hate foreigners that much. People are actually okay with this?

If May doesn't get her wish list from the EU, who do the public blame, themselves, the government, the EU for not handing out free memberships. Unless there is an Ace up our sleeve, we are just going to live the next ten years worse off for no good reason and if any fucker tells me to get on with it or blame the EU, I will rage.

The number one answer to anyone having difficulty understanding why others vote in a way that damages their own interests is this: People are idiots.

However, what they do understand is short, simple messages that require no further thought. 'Strong and stable', 'no deal is better than a bad deal', '£350m will go to the NHS instead of the EU' and so on.

I really wish that Labour would go on the attack and start discrediting the Tories the same way they do Labour. 'Weak and wobbly', 'Can't protect the country' etc. Just frustrating for them to constantly turn up to a gun fight with a knife.
 
The lack of resistance even from Remain voters to Brexit is quite depressing. Nobody has the courage of their convictions to fight for their beliefs anymore. It's all "oh, we sawed halfway through our leg already so might as well finish cutting it off" rather than stitching that leg back up and staunching the bleeding. I absolutely hate that attitude.
 

pulsemyne

Member
I feel like I'm missing something here - how did he get to the £915,000 figure?

Also, I don't see what the guy said that was so wrong. He brought up some legitimate concerns.

Only legitimate concerns if A. You hate the idea of a living wage and B. Have kids in private schools.
Guess what not many people do.
 

Faddy

Banned
I feel like I'm missing something here - how did he get to the £915,000 figure?

Also, I don't see what the guy said that was so wrong. He brought up some legitimate concerns.

His legitimate concerns that he couldn't exploit workers on Zero Hours contracts?
His legitimate concern that he would have to pay VAT on private school fees?
His legitimate concern that corporation tax would be going back to previous levels?

He couldn't vote for Labour because he has no principles in common with the Labour Movement.
 

Beefy

Member
What do you guys think of the schemes the ESA run? The ones were you work a few hours up to 25hrz and only get paid your benefits?
 

slider

Member
He's just another selfish rich bloke. He wants all the money for himself, and wants others, even his own employees, to get as little of it as he can possibly let them get.

Why shouldn't you pay VAT on private school fees? Is it an essential service? We charge it on tampons ffs.

Zero hour contracts basically just exist to trick people into thinking that unemployment is lower than it is. What good is a job if you don't know if there's going to be work for you to get paid doing until you turn up?

What's wrong with paying people a living wage of £10 an hour? Or are you ok with people in full time employment in this country still not having enough money for them to live on?

I refuse to believe this guy ever voted Labour. He's as far from it as you can get.

Totally agree. Especially on the living wage. Folk get worked up about the impact on business (especially small businesses). But, if it stops a greater degree of exploitation - bearing in mind the Marxist mantra on employment - I'm all for it. There's gotta be a better ending on the other side.
 

Beefy

Member
I didn't know that existed, that sounds horrible.

So working without being payed then?

Sounds like community service. That's the most tory thing ever.
They call it a back to work scheme. You only get the £74 a week benefits you get when on the ESA and nothing more. Even if you are working 25hrs.

It's weird because if you find a job outside the scheme you can work up to 25hrs before your benefits get stopped. So you are getting paid for work and your benefits.
 

Spaghetti

Member
9 days until the election. Still don't even know the name of the Conservative candidate running in my area.

Not surprised. Even with the Conservatives going for Labour heartlands, they'd be going up against a well-liked incumbent with a 10,000 majority here.

FAKE EDIT: Just had a quick peek at the Conservative candidate's website. "Theresa May's candidate for [area]", plus a picture with the propped-up PM herself. Wonder how that's going for him now.
 

Chocolate & Vanilla

Fuck Strawberry
I pay all my new starters £20k a year. Whether that's customer service, junior developers, warehouse. Annual incremental payrises as well.

Even from purely a capitalist point of view, Happy staff = a better and more productive work environment.

If they aren't stressed about finances, or tired from having to work a second job and they feel positive about the workplace I provide, it is a positive for my business.

Funnily enough what it leads to is people volunteering their own time. I never ask anyone to stay late but people often do of their own accord.

Guess what i'm saying is treat your staff well, pay them enough to live without worrying if they can pay their bills, and they will look after you too.
 

twofoldd

Member
He's just another selfish rich bloke. He wants all the money for himself, and wants others, even his own employees, to get as little of it as he can possibly let them get.

You gleaned this information based on his 20s camera time? Hmm.

Why shouldn't you pay VAT on private school fees? Is it an essential service? We charge it on tampons ffs.

I don't know enough about this issue to comment, so I won't.

Zero hour contracts basically just exist to trick people into thinking that unemployment is lower than it is. What good is a job if you don't know if there's going to be work for you to get paid doing until you turn up?

Zero hour contracts can be useful for people who want to work flexible hours (students, for example).

The people who work at the warehouse at the company I work on are all put on zero hour contracts initially with the option to moving to guaranteed hours contracts after their probation. Only 30%~ish have made the jump - the rest stayed on their zero hour contracts because they prefer the flexibility.

McDonald's also did a trial recently and found..

McDonald’s has announced it will offer its 115,000 UK employees the opportunity to switch from zero-hours contracts to fixed hour ones.

The fast food giant’s move follows a successful trial in 23 restaurants and franchise outlets across the UK.

About 20 per cent of the company’s workforce chose to move to fixed hours contracts following the trial, according to the company.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...moy-fast-food-chain-job-workers-a7702816.html

Only 20% chose to move, so the other 80% must find some benefit to being on a zero hour contract.

I also have a friend who does some work on the side for a marketing agency. He's on a zero hour contract so he can adjust his schedule around how busy/tired he is. He benefits from them too.

Zero hour contracts shouldn't be abolished - they should be regulated to prevent abusive employers from abusing them.

What's wrong with paying people a living wage of £10 an hour? Or are you ok with people in full time employment in this country still not having enough money for them to live on?

The IFS released an interesting article about the £10 minimum wage recently - https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/9205

I want everyone in the country to be able to have enough money to live well on - there's just questions whether raising the minimum wage is the best way to do it.

Faddy said:
His legitimate concern that corporation tax would be going back to previous levels?

The IFS released an article about this too - https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/9206

The tldr:

The policy could raise around £19 billion in the near term, but substantially less in the medium to long run because companies would respond by investing less in the UK

...

Increasing rates will raise less revenue in the medium to long run because firms would respond by investing less in the UK. This in turn would depress economic activity and lead to fewer jobs and lower wages. There is a very high degree of uncertainty about how large these effects are but estimates suggest that they may be substantial. The potential size of these effects is an indication of why the OECD and others judge corporation tax to have a particularly damaging effect on economic growth.

With Brexit on the horizon, I don't think it'd be a good thing if businesses started investing less into the UK.
 

Izuna

Banned
MaccyD employees were on zero hour contracts?!?!?!?!?

--

but yeah, I think my part-time wouldn't exist if £10 minimum started happening. But then it depends, it might affect people's purchasing power whilst no increasing the prices of the stock immediately. £10/h is a little less than what I made 2nd Year of Uni and that was awesome. It felt very rewarding to make that kind of money as a student (on top of Maintenance Loans ofc).
 
The lack of resistance even from Remain voters to Brexit is quite depressing. Nobody has the courage of their convictions to fight for their beliefs anymore. It's all "oh, we sawed halfway through our leg already so might as well finish cutting it off" rather than stitching that leg back up and staunching the bleeding. I absolutely hate that attitude.
The lack of resistance is depressing but it is also realism. Some judges had the audacity to rule that Brexit had to go through parliament and they were labelled "enemies of the people". There's no stopping the Brexit train because any attempt to do so will be called undemocratic. Even though the Leave majority was slim a good portion of Remainers aren't going to be passionate enough about staying in the EU to want to turn over the referendum.

Unfortunately, the only way I see minds being changed is for Brexit to be a disaster. Even then I could see it being like Kansas in America where Republican economics are ruining the state but "they just need more time to kick in" and "at least it's not a Democrat in charge!"
 
Zero hour contracts also mean that if the business no longer needs you they can just get rid of you, it means you have no right to employment, it means that you can be "hired" to fill a quota without actually being used and, thus, get paid nothing.

It's nonsense. The taxed version of a dodgy cash in hand job clearing a house with your uncle.
 

Izuna

Banned
I had a zero hour contract for a short period at the great eastern (now Andaz) for P.E. That shit sucked and it basically turned into the 90% Polish employees trying to work 55h+ weeks.

I was able to quit exactly when I needed to, however.

I just don't think it's particularly healthy as a part-time unless those jobs are in an abundance.
 

Dabanton

Member
Austerity would have killed me if it wasn't for my parents. It's why I could never vote for the Tories.

More people I know have recently built up the courage to post about how they've been using food banks for the last year even people I thought were doing well. It's legit shocking.

I will never ever expect the Tories and their surrogates in the media to ever talk seriously about why people in the UK are using food banks in 2017.

It's a non issue for them. And sadly I'm thinking a fair amount of their voters as well. The Daily Mail/Sun 'people on benefits= 'scroungers' has done a real number on a lot of people's thinking.
 

Beefy

Member
More people I know have recently built up the courage to post about how they've been using food banks for the last year even people I thought were doing well. It's legit shocking.

I will never ever expect the Tories and their surrogates in the media to ever talk seriously about why people in the UK are using food banks in 2017.

It's a non issue for them. And sadly I'm thinking a fair amount of their voters as well. The Daily Mail/Sun 'people on benefits= 'scroungers' has done a real number on a lot of people's thinking.
And all the " catch a benefit cheat" shows, it's disgusting
 
And all the " catch a benefit cheat" shows, it's disgusting

It's disturbing how many shows like that exist.

The descriptions are so incendiary but I caught five minutes of one and I actually felt empathy with the people shown - probably not the intention.

My only guilty pleasure in that vein is Can't Pay? We'll take it away!
 
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