Rubbish King
The gift that keeps on giving
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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding
- Thread starter Jezbollah
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He just said in the latest speech he would end the freedom of movement, if I understood correctly - would love to be corrected.
I still want him to win, since at least I know he'll be a lot more reasonable with the deal and generous for EU people.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Corbyn has pledged his party to take us out of the single market. That's just a fact.
He has, however, vowed not to walk away from negotiations - it's pretty much the only bit of his Brexit policy that is, officially, different from May's.
He has, however, vowed not to walk away from negotiations - it's pretty much the only bit of his Brexit policy that is, officially, different from May's.
Jezbollah
Member
I'll have to look at his recent comments - I'm certain he said he wanted to retain single market access + freedom of movement. Could be my aging noggin playing up, mind.
I'd really have liked to see the Lib Dems run a completely unambiguous campaign to leave the EU but stay fully within EFTA.
I think the wishy-washy nature of a promised 2nd Ref is what has stopped them making way with the hard Remainers.
The Friendly Monster
Member
Yup, also why the hell would the Lib Dems want more referenda? They have an abysmal record with them recently.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Nope, he wants out of the single market.
The words "single market access" are a smokescreen - that means a trade deal where we can trade into the single market without tariffs. But we are OUT of the single market in a Labour scenario, and the trade deal that Starmer etc would negotiate would be what industries get tariff-free access into it.
What I think Labour would ultimately want is something like CETA. But that would take a very long time to negotiate.
No freedom of movement means no membership of the single market.
Labour have got away with murder this campaign over Brexit, and they're likely not going to be punished for it.
And the Lib Dems want to remain in EFTA! We ALSO want a second referendum.
JonathanEx
Member
Trezza May is too scared to do Women's Hour. Sending Justine Greening.
Theonik
Member
Well it's kinda complicated and can be spun either way. Labour has deliberately refused to clarify that stance to allow flexibility in that scenario. Any outcome that has Brexit concluded comes with major changes in all those areas. What differs is the negotiating stance between the parties and how much they are willing to give away in either question for free market access.Nope, he wants out of the single market.
The words "single market access" are a smokescreen - that means a trade deal where we can trade into the single market without tariffs. But we are OUT of the single market in a Labour scenario, and the trade deal that Starmer etc would negotiate would be what industries get tariff-free access into it.
What I think Labour would ultimately want is something like CETA. But that would take a very long time to negotiate.
No freedom of movement means no membership of the single market.
Labour have got away with murder this campaign over Brexit, and they're likely not going to be punished for it.
Labour is much more likely to get free market access for not committing to migration caps for instance. They could reach a trade deal that continues freedom of movement that doesn't break their commitment.
Huw_Dawson
Member
No worries.
Labour = leave the single market, possibly the customs union (unclear). Negotiate a CETA-like trade deal that gives us access to trade into it. Core issues: time, who governs the trade deal.
Conservatives = "we're totally going to negotiate a trade deal, guys. Honest. We're not just prepping you for a hard Brexit. We obviously care about immigrants that don't vote for us and Northern Irish people."
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Single market ACCESS is not the same as single market MEMBERSHIP.
Canada has access to the single market, as does any other country that the EU has a trade deal with.
Freedom of movement will end if Labour wins power. Corbyn said that on TV last night. There's no reason to believe otherwise.
The fact that this is actually up for debate demonstrates just how good Labour have been at completely obfuscating their approach to Brexit, and why so many hard Remainers are backing them.
Labour = leave the single market, possibly the customs union (unclear). Negotiate a CETA-like trade deal that gives us access to trade into it. Core issues: time, who governs the trade deal.
Conservatives = "we're totally going to negotiate a trade deal, guys. Honest. We're not just prepping you for a hard Brexit. We obviously care about immigrants that don't vote for us and Northern Irish people."
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Single market ACCESS is not the same as single market MEMBERSHIP.
Canada has access to the single market, as does any other country that the EU has a trade deal with.
Freedom of movement will end if Labour wins power. Corbyn said that on TV last night. There's no reason to believe otherwise.
The fact that this is actually up for debate demonstrates just how good Labour have been at completely obfuscating their approach to Brexit, and why so many hard Remainers are backing them.
What Corbyn has said is - "free movement ends when we leave the European Union", and that they will seek "tariff free access" to the single market. Ultimately, what that means in reality, is whatever negotiators can achieve. One of the reasons journalists can't get answers to questions like "will you reduce immigration?" is because - we just don't know if they can! Center-right political consensus seems to be: it's better politics to promise you'll bring it down to the tens of thousands, at the third or fourth time of promising and failing. Actually, what Corbyn and Labour are doing are not committing themselves to dying on that hill when doing so could not only see them raked over the coals for failing to deliver, but it could also have fundamental ramifications in Brexit negotiations or on our job market and economy. Needs based migration is what a lot of people want, and it's what Labour and some other parties are now saying they will offer. I find it fairly encouraging at least to hear him say, effectively, that "no deal IS a bad deal". It would be for all concerned.
UK wants its own CETA, which fucking Wallonia of all places nearly killed, and that's with Canada. Good luck :/
Huw_Dawson
Member
The extremely sad thing is that we could have reduced EU immigration using the EU's own rules. Freedom of movement does not mean uncapped and uncontrolled migration from the continent. There's rules in place to ensure that a migrant has a job or is able to live in their new country without causing too much of a burden. Britain opted out.
Everyone is being taken for a ride on immigration.
Everyone is being taken for a ride on immigration.
And_Gignac
Member
If regressing Brexit was such a critical political position, Lib Dems wouldn't be polling at less than 10%. The public has moved on.
To be fair (for once) to the Tories, some of this is probably a poker face being put on for the EU. They need to think us walking away is a possibility.
Jokes aside it looks like the wider voting public in finally realising what a dull, flip-flopping soundbite machine she really is. They're doing all they can to keep her out of the limelight.
Theonik
Member
Of course. Now what Labour could do is negotiate free market access, with EU migration based on the EU's rules. They could sell that as an improvement over the old status quo without actually changing anything. A Christmas miracle of sorts.
Second referendum at the end of negotiations to me is probably what sours me off the LD position. They should commit to stop the whole process if that's their angle. Voting on the deal is both dangerous and useless. I'm getting Grexit omnishambles vibes.
Yep pretending we aren't leaving is just fantasy land
And they've got the flag bloody upside down.
affleck1981
Member
Isn't that the sign for distress? Or is that the joke?
it's a distress signal
Not a problem! If I remember rightly, the Tories won there by about 27 votes. So it is purely possible that Labour could gain that seat back!
Huw_Dawson
Member
There is little appetite for a second referendum - it's something that you get maybe 60% of Remainers going "yeah I'd be alright with that" but it's not a vote winner, and being seen to OVERTURN DEMOCRACY - voting is undemocratic, we were always at war with Eurasia - is bad for about 50% of the populace.
It makes sense to make it a campaigning point during the years of a parliament, as it's an interesting position to take and could be a good idea if the route through Brexit is as we feared, but it should have been simplified at an election to simply "we want to be in the single market and customs union, and we do really think this Brexit idea is silly."
Fortunately I don't think we've done badly enough to get seriously hammered. Willie Rennie is doing a miraculous job up in Scotland in scoring us seats against the headwind, and we'll come ahead in London. We may even manage to save Norman Lamb's job.
I've seen predictions of us being net down (from a Daily Mail writer, surprise surprise) but also one of the folks who focusses on the betting markets who revised us to 15-18.
No sign of a video on the upcoming Neil interview with Farron yet. Maybe it was just a boring ill-tempered debate, rather than one that went ham on Farron's faith.
But anyway - after this election I'm going to be doing my best inside the Lib Dems, as only a mere member with some friends scattered around, to try and take on board some lessons and present it upwards. I think Farron's got my confidence to stay on - and he is a good egg who i think will have a lot more weight and gravitas... and, crucially, experience. Him being on the sidelines during the coalition means he is inexperienced.
It makes sense to make it a campaigning point during the years of a parliament, as it's an interesting position to take and could be a good idea if the route through Brexit is as we feared, but it should have been simplified at an election to simply "we want to be in the single market and customs union, and we do really think this Brexit idea is silly."
Fortunately I don't think we've done badly enough to get seriously hammered. Willie Rennie is doing a miraculous job up in Scotland in scoring us seats against the headwind, and we'll come ahead in London. We may even manage to save Norman Lamb's job.
I've seen predictions of us being net down (from a Daily Mail writer, surprise surprise) but also one of the folks who focusses on the betting markets who revised us to 15-18.
No sign of a video on the upcoming Neil interview with Farron yet. Maybe it was just a boring ill-tempered debate, rather than one that went ham on Farron's faith.
But anyway - after this election I'm going to be doing my best inside the Lib Dems, as only a mere member with some friends scattered around, to try and take on board some lessons and present it upwards. I think Farron's got my confidence to stay on - and he is a good egg who i think will have a lot more weight and gravitas... and, crucially, experience. Him being on the sidelines during the coalition means he is inexperienced.
I'm honestly starting to feel a bit worried about May's mental health.
That's the joke. Quite a nice touch, really.
The Lib Dems are far too soft on Brexit for it to be a campaigning point.
If they are going to make it a key issue they should say they would revoke article 50.
Explain how the referendum was a farce built on lies
Call the other parties out for bowing to populism opportunism
Instead we have a wibbly wobbly, let's have article 50 then vote against it.
SuperBowser
Member
Na, I have zero faith in this possibility. The Tories have shown they will smash anything they do not get their way with. May will absolutely walk away and blame EU for it.
It is probably but roll on and I bet people will be thinking we should have pushed back harder. Suppose we could join again.
BossDarkseid
Member
I've seen the flag upside down enough times in this country to not trust them that it was intentional.
I really hope you're right and that saner voices prevail. But I've little confidence in that happening.
I don't think she will, banking alone doesn't work without it. She will cave and go soft brexit which is basically what was the point in leaving then. Tories are evil self serving bastards but they aren't going to nuke the UK by going hard Brexit no deal. They actually want free single market trade and expect to get it but the EU has said numerous times, that's not negotiable without the four freedoms. I don't think she has a ace, she is juggling our economy, she drops all the balls or says yes to the EU. I can't see them dropping all the balls.
I think you are sadly underestimating the blind fanatics running the Tory party. People like David Davis and Jacob Rees Moggs aren't going to back down when it comes to the crunch. These are people dreaming of Empire.
Royal_Phalanx
Member
The real ideologues like David Davis are doing the talks, there won't be a deal. Cave on free movement or the ECJ to get a good trade deal and the Right wing of the Tory party will go insane. Labour party is a fundamentally pro European party within the PLP and the grassroots, they will compromise.
Huw_Dawson
Member
This election has badly compromised May and thrown the entire Brexit negotiation bus off the road.
What I want is May on the same sort of slim majority as now, going to Brussels and then wanting to leave without a deal. The Tories split over the issue, the government falls, and we get the second referendum via a GE in late 2018. My party is proven right, Corbyn's Labour either manages to unify properly or split properly, and a decent-strength centrist movement can shunt the Tories out of power once and for all.
What I want is May on the same sort of slim majority as now, going to Brussels and then wanting to leave without a deal. The Tories split over the issue, the government falls, and we get the second referendum via a GE in late 2018. My party is proven right, Corbyn's Labour either manages to unify properly or split properly, and a decent-strength centrist movement can shunt the Tories out of power once and for all.
Royal_Phalanx
Member
One wonders how Jacob Rees-Mogg is that insane. He said he hopes that May will return as a "21st century Gloriana" or some shit.
Rees-Mogg is not of this Earth. I refuse to believe it. He is an alien impersonating a poor parody of some kind of insane 1870's Tory.
QuicheFontaine
Member
Interesting how these leaflets change around the country.
I think it's a bit odd of them to lead with the winter fuel thing - my first reaction was "Good!".
Also the bit about raising the retirement age - pretty sure every government everywhere is going to have to do that repeatedly as people start living so long they spend more time retired than working!
BossDarkseid
Member
Brenda from Bristol on suicide watch
Royal_Phalanx
Member
The first thing that needs cutting is pensioner entitlements for those that are sitting on loads of money. That stuff should be means tested. Only thing I like within the Tory manifesto. Also that triple lock needs to go.
Theonik
Member
You must live in a heavily pensioner occupied area.
We've gone through this before but it's really not worth doing. Rich pensioners will always pay more tax than the benefits they get so worst case scenario you are reducing their tax burden slightly but means testing is expensive itself. People not entitled to benefits are also more likely to vote against them too. It also creates a bad image for the people that do.
Does the fact she has no mates explain why she was left at the Home Office for so long? A job where shit gets piled on shit. Immigration, crime, police numbers. If she had allies she would have got a move to a cushier job like Foreign Secretary.
Or is it like Hunt at Health where moving him would be admitting he is a failure.
Royal_Phalanx
Member
I received a UKIP leaflet some time ago- in London. Can't imagine that will be popular here.
Dirtyshubb
Member
Well she is gonna have to wait at least six weeks for her cbt referral so she will probably have to just take some pills until then.
Huw_Dawson
Member
This is how badly May has botched this election.
A landslide would give her the ability to ignore her party no-matter what the Brexit deal is. That is what she really means by a mandate - she wants the mandate to rule as President, almost, not as a first amongst equals.
She's not really a Conservative. You can see that via how she is distant from the rest of her cabinet and how her entire campaign has been about forging the Theresa May party.
I think she and her supporters are going to get hit by a night of the long knives after this election. Either she's going to be brought to the heel of the 1922 Committee, or she is going to get axed as PM, and probably replaced by someone who is more of your typical Tory. Rudd is a good candidate for that - BoJo is a walking circus act and most of May's cabinet are either already marginalised or inept. Rudd sticks out. She a decent profile and she already scored a blinder by getting the PM to send her to a debate on her behalf. Rudd didn't fall over - that's a good sign and anyone they want to replace May has to be able to not look like an incompetent robot.
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